license: cc-by-4.0
language:
- es
- en
- pt
pretty_name: AFOS — Peru 2026 Electoral Divergence
tags:
- elections
- peru
- prediction-markets
- polls
- political-risk
- divergence
- open-data
- latin-america
AFOS — Peru 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset
🌐 English · Español · Português
Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls × prediction markets for Peru's 2026 general election (first round 12 April 2026; runoff 7 June 2026, Keiko Fujimori vs Roberto Sánchez), built in the same spirit as the AFOS Brazil 2026 dataset: sources are reported side by side with explicit divergence, not blended into a single average.
Maintained by AFOS Analytics. This is part of AFOS's expansion of its electoral-divergence method beyond Brazil. No personal data — only public electoral information.
English
Contents (start with the polls):
| Path | Rows | Content |
|---|---|---|
polls/peru-first-round-polls.csv |
327 | First-round voting intention, long format (one row per candidate × poll), all 14 candidates, 36 polls, Jan→Apr 2026. |
polls/peru-runoff-polls.csv |
16 | Runoff head-to-head (Fujimori vs Sánchez), Apr→Jun 2026. |
polls/peru-polls.json |
— | Full structured polls (first round + runoff) with methodology. |
data/peru-market-odds-timeseries.csv |
* | Daily Polymarket win-probability per candidate (from the "Peru Presidential Election Winner" market). |
data/peru-divergence-timeseries.csv |
* | Market × poll divergence per candidate — each first-round poll joined to the candidate's market odds on its date. |
* market/divergence files are produced by build-peru-market-divergence.mjs on a runner (Polymarket's API does not resolve from every environment).
Pollsters covered: Ipsos Perú, Datum Internacional, CPI, IEP, CIT, Imasolu, CELAG, IDICE, CB Global Data (with publishing client where applicable).
Provenance & method: poll figures are compiled deterministically (rowspan/colspan-aware HTML parser) from the public Wikipedia aggregation "Opinion polling for the 2026 Peruvian general election" and cross-checked against the AS/COA poll tracker; every figure traces to a named pollster's release. Market odds come from the public Polymarket markets. Nothing is imputed or smoothed; missing values are left blank.
License: CC BY 4.0. Underlying poll numbers are facts released by the named pollsters; the Wikipedia aggregation is CC BY-SA. Please attribute AFOS Analytics and the original pollsters.
Cite: AFOS Analytics. Peru 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset. Hugging Face, 2026. CC BY 4.0. (see CITATION.cff)
Disclaimer: observational research. Not investment advice, not voting guidance.
Español
Dataset abierto que cruza encuestas × mercados de predicción para la elección general del Perú 2026 (primera vuelta 12 abr 2026; segunda vuelta 7 jun 2026, Keiko Fujimori vs Roberto Sánchez), con divergencia explícita entre fuentes en lugar de un promedio único.
polls/peru-first-round-polls.csv— intención de voto en primera vuelta, formato largo, los 14 candidatos, 36 encuestas (ene→abr 2026).polls/peru-runoff-polls.csv— segunda vuelta cara a cara (Fujimori vs Sánchez), 16 encuestas.data/peru-market-odds-timeseries.csv/data/peru-divergence-timeseries.csv— probabilidad de Polymarket por candidato y divergencia mercado × encuesta.
Encuestadoras: Ipsos Perú, Datum Internacional, CPI, IEP, CIT, Imasolu, CELAG, IDICE, CB Global Data. Fuente: agregación pública de Wikipedia + tracker AS/COA; cada cifra remite a la publicación de una encuestadora con nombre. Licencia: CC BY 4.0 (atribuir a AFOS Analytics y a las encuestadoras originales). Investigación observacional; no es asesoría de inversión ni orientación de voto.
Português
Dataset aberto cruzando pesquisas × mercados de previsão para a eleição geral do Peru 2026 (1º turno 12/abr; 2º turno 07/jun, Keiko Fujimori × Roberto Sánchez), com divergência explícita entre fontes. Pesquisas (14 candidatos, 36 do 1º turno + 16 do 2º turno) compiladas deterministicamente da agregação pública da Wikipedia + tracker AS/COA; odds do Polymarket. Licença CC BY 4.0 (atribuir AFOS Analytics + institutos originais). Pesquisa observacional; não é recomendação de investimento nem orientação de voto.
Sources / Fuentes: Pollsters (Ipsos Perú, Datum, CPI, IEP, CIT, …) · Wikipedia aggregation · AS/COA poll tracker · Polymarket. Column definitions in DATA_DICTIONARY.md.