---
license: cc-by-4.0
language:
- es
- en
- pt
pretty_name: "AFOS — Peru 2026 Electoral Divergence"
tags:
- elections
- peru
- prediction-markets
- polls
- political-risk
- divergence
- open-data
- latin-america
---

# AFOS — Peru 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset

🌐 **[English](#english) · [Español](#español) · [Português](#português)**

Open dataset cross-referencing **opinion polls × prediction markets** for Peru's **2026 general election** (first round 12 April 2026; runoff 7 June 2026, Keiko Fujimori vs Roberto Sánchez), built in the same spirit as the AFOS Brazil 2026 dataset: sources are reported side by side with **explicit divergence**, not blended into a single average.

Maintained by **[AFOS Analytics](https://afos-analytics.com)**. This is part of AFOS's expansion of its electoral-divergence method beyond Brazil. *No personal data — only public electoral information.*

---

## English

**Contents (start with the polls):**

| Path | Rows | Content |
|------|------|---------|
| `polls/peru-first-round-polls.csv` | 327 | First-round voting intention, **long format** (one row per candidate × poll), **all 14 candidates**, 36 polls, Jan→Apr 2026. |
| `polls/peru-runoff-polls.csv` | 16 | Runoff head-to-head (Fujimori vs Sánchez), Apr→Jun 2026. |
| `polls/peru-polls.json` | — | Full structured polls (first round + runoff) with methodology. |
| `data/peru-market-odds-timeseries.csv` | * | Daily Polymarket win-probability per candidate (from the "Peru Presidential Election Winner" market). |
| `data/peru-divergence-timeseries.csv` | * | **Market × poll divergence** per candidate — each first-round poll joined to the candidate's market odds on its date. |

<sub>\* market/divergence files are produced by `build-peru-market-divergence.mjs` on a runner (Polymarket's API does not resolve from every environment).</sub>

**Pollsters covered:** Ipsos Perú, Datum Internacional, CPI, IEP, CIT, Imasolu, CELAG, IDICE, CB Global Data (with publishing client where applicable).

**Provenance & method:** poll figures are compiled deterministically (rowspan/colspan-aware HTML parser) from the public Wikipedia aggregation *"Opinion polling for the 2026 Peruvian general election"* and cross-checked against the [AS/COA poll tracker](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-perus-2026-presidential-election); every figure traces to a named pollster's release. Market odds come from the public Polymarket markets. Nothing is imputed or smoothed; missing values are left blank.

**License:** CC BY 4.0. Underlying poll numbers are facts released by the named pollsters; the Wikipedia aggregation is CC BY-SA. Please attribute **AFOS Analytics** and the **original pollsters**.

**Cite:** *AFOS Analytics. Peru 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset. Hugging Face, 2026. CC BY 4.0.* (see `CITATION.cff`)

**Disclaimer:** observational research. Not investment advice, not voting guidance.

---

## Español

Dataset abierto que cruza **encuestas × mercados de predicción** para la **elección general del Perú 2026** (primera vuelta 12 abr 2026; segunda vuelta 7 jun 2026, Keiko Fujimori vs Roberto Sánchez), con **divergencia explícita** entre fuentes en lugar de un promedio único.

- `polls/peru-first-round-polls.csv` — intención de voto en primera vuelta, formato largo, **los 14 candidatos**, 36 encuestas (ene→abr 2026).
- `polls/peru-runoff-polls.csv` — segunda vuelta cara a cara (Fujimori vs Sánchez), 16 encuestas.
- `data/peru-market-odds-timeseries.csv` / `data/peru-divergence-timeseries.csv` — probabilidad de Polymarket por candidato y divergencia mercado × encuesta.

**Encuestadoras:** Ipsos Perú, Datum Internacional, CPI, IEP, CIT, Imasolu, CELAG, IDICE, CB Global Data. **Fuente:** agregación pública de Wikipedia + tracker AS/COA; cada cifra remite a la publicación de una encuestadora con nombre. **Licencia:** CC BY 4.0 (atribuir a AFOS Analytics y a las encuestadoras originales). Investigación observacional; no es asesoría de inversión ni orientación de voto.

---

## Português

Dataset aberto cruzando **pesquisas × mercados de previsão** para a **eleição geral do Peru 2026** (1º turno 12/abr; 2º turno 07/jun, Keiko Fujimori × Roberto Sánchez), com **divergência explícita** entre fontes. Pesquisas (14 candidatos, 36 do 1º turno + 16 do 2º turno) compiladas deterministicamente da agregação pública da Wikipedia + tracker AS/COA; odds do Polymarket. Licença CC BY 4.0 (atribuir AFOS Analytics + institutos originais). Pesquisa observacional; não é recomendação de investimento nem orientação de voto.

---

**Sources / Fuentes:** Pollsters (Ipsos Perú, Datum, CPI, IEP, CIT, …) · [Wikipedia aggregation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Peruvian_general_election) · [AS/COA poll tracker](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-perus-2026-presidential-election) · Polymarket. Column definitions in [`DATA_DICTIONARY.md`](DATA_DICTIONARY.md).