DATA_DICTIONARY.md

Data Dictionary — AFOS Peru 2026 Electoral Divergence

🌐 EN — Data dictionary for the AFOS Peru 2026 electoral-divergence dataset (polls × prediction market). · PT — Dicionário de dados do dataset AFOS Peru 2026 (pesquisas × mercado de previsão). · ES — Diccionario de datos del dataset AFOS Perú 2026 (encuestas × mercado de predicción). Column names and definitions below are kept in English (CSV/academic standard). · Os nomes e definições de coluna seguem em inglês (padrão dos CSVs). · Los nombres y definiciones de columna se mantienen en inglés (estándar de los CSV).

All figures trace to a named pollster's published release (compiled from the Wikipedia aggregation, rowspan/colspan-aware parser) or to a public Polymarket market. Missing values are left blank, never imputed.

polls/peru-first-round-polls.csv (long format)

One row per candidate per poll. 36 polls × up to 14 candidates = 327 rows, Jan→Apr 2026.

Column	Type	Notes
poll_date	date	End of fieldwork (YYYY-MM-DD), derived from the fieldwork string.
fieldwork	string	Fieldwork window as published (e.g. "28 Feb–5 Mar 2026").
pollster	string	Polling firm / publishing client (e.g. "Ipsos Perú/Perú 21").
sample	integer	Sample size.
candidate	string	Candidate full name.
party	string	Party.
percent	number	First-round voting intention, %.

Candidates tracked: Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular), Roberto Sánchez (Juntos por el Perú), Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular), Jorge Nieto, Ricardo Belmont (OBRAS), Carlos Álvarez, Alfonso López Chau (Ahora Nación), Marisol Pérez Tello, Carlos Espá, Fernando Olivera, José Luna (Podemos Perú), Yonhy Lescano, César Acuña (APP), Enrique Valderrama (APRA).

polls/peru-runoff-polls.csv

Column	Type	Notes
poll_date	date	End of fieldwork.
fieldwork	string	Fieldwork window.
pollster	string	Polling firm / client.
sample	integer	Sample size.
fujimori_pct / sanchez_pct	number	Runoff voting intention, %.
lead_pp	number	fujimori_pct − sanchez_pct, percentage points.

polls/peru-polls.json

Structured object: { description, source, election, counts, first_round[], runoff[] }, where each poll carries poll_date, fieldwork, pollster, sample, and results[] (candidate/party/percent).

data/peru-market-odds-timeseries.csv

Daily Polymarket win-probability per candidate, from the "Peru Presidential Election Winner" market.

Column	Type	Notes
date	date	YYYY-MM-DD.
candidate	string	Canonical candidate name.
polymarket_pct	number	Implied win probability, % (daily close).
volume_usd	number	Cumulative market volume, USD.

data/peru-divergence-timeseries.csv

Each first-round poll result joined to the candidate's market odds on the poll date.

Column	Type	Notes
poll_date	date	Poll fieldwork end.
pollster	string	Polling firm.
candidate	string	Candidate.
poll_pct	number	First-round vote intention, %.
polymarket_pct	number	Win probability on polymarket_date, %.
polymarket_date	date	Market date used: nearest available on or before poll_date.
divergence_pp	number	polymarket_pct − poll_pct, percentage points.

Interpretation caveat: a poll reports first-round vote share; the Polymarket contract prices probability of winning the election. These are different quantities — divergence_pp is the gap AFOS tracks editorially, not a like-for-like polling-error metric.

data/peru-structural-context.csv

Structural country context from the World Bank, complementary to the divergence data: it frames the country, it does not predict the electoral outcome. Long/tidy format, one row per indicator, latest available year per indicator.

Column	Type	Notes
category	string	governance, economy, or education.
indicator	string	Machine code (e.g. political_stability, gdp_usd, expected_years_schooling).
label	string	Human-readable indicator name (English).
value	number	Governance on a 0–100 scale; economy in US$ / %; education in % of GDP or years.
unit	string	index_0_100, USD, percent, or years.
year	integer	Reference year of the value (latest available).
source	string	World Bank WGI (governance, via Data360) or WDI (economy & education).
iso3	string	ISO 3166 alpha-3 country code.

Both sources are open-licensed (CC BY 4.0) and keyless. Governance = Worldwide Governance Indicators; economy & education = World Development Indicators.