Colombia 2026 electoral-divergence dataset — polls × prediction market
This dataset cross-references 29 first-round polls (10 candidates — Invamer, AtlasIntel, CNC, Guarumo…)
with Polymarket odds for Colombia's 2026 presidential election, with the market-vs-poll divergence kept
explicit.
The market prices P(win); polls measure vote share — the gap is the signal. Standout: the market priced
Abelardo de la Espriella's win probability at 43.5% while polls gave him 31.6% of the vote — and he won
the first round with 43.7%. The market saw what vote-share polls understated; Iván Cepeda led voting
intention with near-zero divergence.
CC BY 4.0 · trilingual card (EN/ES/PT) · reproducible.
Same method as our Brazil dataset; Peru 2026 is also live:
https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/peru-2026-electoral-divergence
Feedback welcome.