f4_mc_dropout/MODEL_CARD.md

f4_mc_dropout — model card

Auto-generated by tools/generate_model_cards.py on 2026-05-17.

Default configuration (out-of-box hyperparameters)

(no config.json schema; see trainer source)

Feature set (1 columns)

• (univariate: imbalance_price_dkk_mwh_15min)

Frozen-seed results (5 seeds: 13, 42, 137, 1729, 31415)

Metric	Value
Val pinball mean (DKK)	268.96 ± 3.49
Raw [q10, q90] coverage	61.16 ± 3.31%
ACI marginal coverage (target 90%)	89.75 ± 0.05%
ACI mean width (DKK)	2581.53 ± 251.35
Inference runtime (s)	—

Provenance

• Trained on data/processed/dk1_panel_{train, val}.parquet (FX-corrected 2026-05-16)
• Seeds: [13, 42, 137, 1729, 31415] (frozen project-wide)
• Train cutoff: 2025-02-28 UTC
• Val window: 2025-03-04 → 2025-04-30 UTC (post-EAM regime)
• Per-seed artifacts at models/forecaster/f4_mc_dropout/seed-<n>/:
  • model.pt / model.npz — weights
  • stats.pkl — train-stat normalization (mean/std/target stats)
  • val_preds.npz — quantile predictions on val
  • metrics.json — pinball / coverage / ACI numbers
  • aci_state.json — final ACI state (α_t, buffer)