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65568d2 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 | # f4_mc_dropout — model card
Auto-generated by `tools/generate_model_cards.py` on 2026-05-17.
## Default configuration (out-of-box hyperparameters)
_(no config.json schema; see trainer source)_
## Feature set (1 columns)
- `(univariate: imbalance_price_dkk_mwh_15min)`
## Frozen-seed results (5 seeds: 13, 42, 137, 1729, 31415)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Val pinball mean (DKK) | **268.96 ± 3.49** |
| Raw [q10, q90] coverage | 61.16 ± 3.31% |
| ACI marginal coverage (target 90%) | 89.75 ± 0.05% |
| ACI mean width (DKK) | 2581.53 ± 251.35 |
| Inference runtime (s) | — |
## Provenance
- Trained on `data/processed/dk1_panel_{train, val}.parquet` (FX-corrected 2026-05-16)
- Seeds: `[13, 42, 137, 1729, 31415]` (frozen project-wide)
- Train cutoff: 2025-02-28 UTC
- Val window: 2025-03-04 → 2025-04-30 UTC (post-EAM regime)
- Per-seed artifacts at `models/forecaster/f4_mc_dropout/seed-<n>/`:
- `model.pt` / `model.npz` — weights
- `stats.pkl` — train-stat normalization (mean/std/target stats)
- `val_preds.npz` — quantile predictions on val
- `metrics.json` — pinball / coverage / ACI numbers
- `aci_state.json` — final ACI state (α_t, buffer)
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