lelloman/pv-estimator-tight-v1-int8

PV Estimator Tight-v1 INT8 Source-Model Ensemble

This repository contains the tight-v1 INT8 ONNX source-model bundle used by PV Estimator local v1.

PV Estimator uses this bundle to estimate photovoltaic production locally from coordinates and simple system parameters. The default GitHub build embeds these same files into the pv CLI and pv-tui terminal UI.

Files

File	Purpose
source-model-artifacts.json	Runtime manifest, normalization stats, source list, and coverage rules.
nasa_power.onnx	NASA POWER climate-normal source model.
pvgis_era5.onnx	PVGIS ERA5 source model.
pvgis_sarah3.onnx	PVGIS SARAH3 source model.
coverage/pvgis_sarah3_empirical_grid_mask.json	Empirical SARAH3 applicability mask.
SHA256SUMS	Artifact checksums.

Manifest Snapshot

Field	Value
Schema version	1
Model family	monthly-hourly climate-normal residual MLP
Input features	66
Temporal bins	288
Output targets	10 climate-normal targets

Targets:

• ghi_mean_w_m2
• dni_mean_w_m2
• dhi_mean_w_m2
• temp_mean_c
• wind_mean_m_s
• ghi_std_w_m2
• dni_std_w_m2
• dhi_std_w_m2
• temp_std_c
• wind_std_m_s

Sources and Coverage

Source ID	Label	Coverage rule
nasa_power	NASA POWER	Global
pvgis_era5	PVGIS-ERA5	Global land PVGIS gateway
pvgis_sarah3	PVGIS-SARAH3	Empirical grid mask

The runtime uses only applicable sources for each coordinate. PV Estimator JSON output reports coverage.applicable_sources and coverage.pvgis_sarah3_applicable.

Evaluation Snapshot

The tight-v1 INT8 comparison used the same pv-cli estimate runtime path on a 120-location regional benchmark.

Reference	Count	Tight v1 MBE	Tight v1 MAE	Tight v1 RMSE
PVGIS-ERA5	120	-0.442%	2.470%	3.201%
PVGIS-SARAH3	100	2.374%	3.218%	4.418%

Distribution snapshot:

Reference	p90 abs error	max abs error
PVGIS-ERA5	4.892%	11.623%
PVGIS-SARAH3	6.469%	19.456%

Mean source disagreement spread was 4.785% in the tight-v1 comparison.

Use With PV Estimator

After downloading this repository, pass the directory to pv estimate:

pv estimate \
  --lat 40.4168 \
  --lon=-3.7038 \
  --model-dir . \
  --format json

The GitHub project embeds this same bundle by default, so --model-dir is optional when using the release binary.

Limitations

• Estimates are climate-normal predictions, not measured site data.
• This is not a substitute for a bankability study, engineering design, permitting review, or site inspection.
• Local shading, horizon obstructions, soiling, inverter clipping, curtailment, snow, and detailed equipment behavior are not fully modeled in local v1.
• Accuracy can degrade in locations or climates underrepresented by training and evaluation data.
• Uncertainty bands are based on source-model disagreement and a multiplier, not a fully calibrated probabilistic forecast for every coordinate.

Project

PV Estimator GitHub repository: https://github.com/lelloman/pv-estimator

The source project is licensed under MIT OR Apache-2.0. This model repository is published under Apache-2.0.