id string | question string | category string | url string | market_prob float64 | oracle_prob float64 | edge float64 | confidence float64 | signal string | model string | backtest_acc float64 | auc float64 | modelability int64 | volume int64 | liquidity int64 | end_date timestamp[s] | captured_at string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3438927 | LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-dnf-drx-2026-08-10 | 0.9995 | 0.9686 | -0.0309 | 0.9131 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 76 | 5,028,617 | 4,000,864 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3434970 | National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/wta-shnaide-swiatek-2026-08-11 | 0.265 | 0.2705 | 0.0055 | 0.8537 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 1,488,874 | 629,295 | 2026-08-18T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3421484 | Astana: Lucio Ratti vs Tai Sach | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-ratti-sach-2026-08-10 | 0.9995 | 0.9834 | -0.0161 | 0.9166 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 1,294,936 | 1,565,027 | 2026-08-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
559701 | Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-josh-stein-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.9166 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 938,280 | 1,847,090 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3438925 | LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-dnf-drx-2026-08-10-game2 | 0.9995 | 0.9698 | -0.0297 | 0.8608 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 679,595 | 384,423 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2063134 | Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-adanech-abiebie-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia | 0.004 | 0.01 | 0.006 | 0.8034 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 50 | 76,722,451 | 18,135 | 2026-06-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3128885 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-15-20260727171036148 | 0.0035 | 0.01 | 0.0065 | 0.902 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 5,251,199 | 820,659 | 2026-08-15T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2774056 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320 | 0.0405 | 0.0435 | 0.003 | 0.9175 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 11,195,916 | 1,389,450 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2772194 | Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-shakhtar-donetsk-win-the-2026-27-uefa-champions-league-championship-20260701202025578 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8649 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 3,279,616 | 248,267 | 2027-05-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3128786 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-9-20260727170733638 | 0.9985 | 0.99 | -0.0085 | 0.8507 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 62 | 2,274,713 | 141,916 | 2026-08-09T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2252244 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615 | 0.625 | 0.6293 | 0.0043 | 0.8296 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 86 | 5,425,862 | 462,948 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2937525 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-july-31-20260715194822045 | 0.915 | 0.911 | -0.004 | 0.7921 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 7,611,155 | 101,609 | 2026-07-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2910437 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-15-2026-20260713152715083-347-987-697-628-574-676 | 0.125 | 0.1602 | 0.0352 | 0.7507 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 1,868,181 | 69,575 | 2026-08-15T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2252243 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-586 | 0.016 | 0.01 | -0.006 | 0.8888 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 5,945,791 | 841,633 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3407476 | LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-dnsc-ktc-2026-08-10 | 0.0005 | 0.0437 | 0.0432 | 0.8399 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 314,620 | 431,997 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3409541 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-kai-and-speed-beat-the-minecraft-challenge-by-august-17-20260807213124706 | 0.135 | 0.1351 | 0.0001 | 0.7916 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 512,843 | 99,129 | 2026-08-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
663583 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026 | 0.065 | 0.0618 | -0.0032 | 0.8338 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 24,585,523 | 625,596 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2252245 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649 | 0.355 | 0.3787 | 0.0237 | 0.8066 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 85 | 4,621,321 | 491,533 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2154920 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-gamestop-acquire-ebay | 0.105 | 0.106 | 0.001 | 0.8002 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 60 | 2,666,288 | 152,536 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
704475 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-james-fishback-be-the-republican-nominee-for-florida-governor | 0.0075 | 0.01 | 0.0025 | 0.8505 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 1,578,496 | 140,173 | 2026-08-18T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2252246 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-664 | 0.0055 | 0.01 | 0.0045 | 0.8764 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 3,152,336 | 445,194 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3471032 | Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-fal2-k271-2026-08-12 | 0.835 | 0.8552 | 0.0202 | 0.746 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 245,288 | 38,493 | 2026-08-12T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2910438 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-31-2026-20260713152715084-642-513-584-641-939-632-729 | 0.375 | 0.4094 | 0.0344 | 0.7463 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 82 | 903,922 | 70,305 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2937527 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047 | 0.945 | 0.9503 | 0.0053 | 0.7879 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 1,548,009 | 124,803 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3452907 | Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MOUZ (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-pr1-mouz-2026-08-10 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8669 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 202,916 | 418,039 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
703257 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027-789-924-249 | 0.045 | 0.0419 | -0.0031 | 0.831 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 36,757,748 | 682,781 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
559666 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-tim-walz-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-475 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8987 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 42,970,571 | 2,855,441 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3399415 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-10-2026 | 0.0095 | 0.01 | 0.0005 | 0.8218 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 287,963 | 78,084 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3482348 | LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-gen-dnf-2026-08-10-game1 | 0.33 | 0.3381 | 0.0081 | 0.5902 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 61 | 184,282 | 73,165 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
559685 | Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-mrbeast-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8979 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 40,666,715 | 2,722,215 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3303768 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-62k-on-august-10-2026 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.804 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 50 | 200,860 | 35,368 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3303808 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-68k-on-august-10-2026 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8074 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 202,181 | 39,209 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3399416 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-11-2026 | 0.026 | 0.0271 | 0.0011 | 0.8208 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 201,927 | 64,894 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
559690 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-kim-kardashian-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8966 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 42,461,474 | 2,900,254 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2952488 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-15-20260716224448969-246-815-987-693 | 0.9535 | 0.9618 | 0.0083 | 0.8357 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 1,482,147 | 128,160 | 2026-08-15T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3422051 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-august-10-2026 | 0.36 | 0.3854 | 0.0254 | 0.6713 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 76 | 148,355 | 34,156 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2252242 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-863 | 0.0095 | 0.01 | 0.0005 | 0.8754 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 2,634,456 | 491,704 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3452737 | Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-pr1-mouz-2026-08-10-game2 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8544 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 142,734 | 304,612 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3407529 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-hle-genga-2026-08-10 | 0.015 | 0.0764 | 0.0614 | 0.7346 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 151,222 | 173,754 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
561991 | Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-matt-gaetz-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8938 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 20,172,642 | 2,234,237 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2176270 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 | 0.475 | 0.5061 | 0.0311 | 0.7739 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 88 | 7,594,236 | 269,277 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2774057 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440 | 0.165 | 0.1734 | 0.0084 | 0.8054 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 2,543,559 | 390,157 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3407518 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-hle-genga-2026-08-10-game2 | 0.045 | 0.1011 | 0.0561 | 0.6131 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 116,210 | 146,780 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3407517 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-hle-genga-2026-08-10-game1 | 0.0005 | 0.0606 | 0.0601 | 0.8121 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 115,844 | 478,789 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2937526 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046 | 0.925 | 0.9253 | 0.0003 | 0.7765 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 1,298,181 | 89,304 | 2026-08-14T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3231771 | Trump out as President by August 31? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-by-august-31-20260730185655928 | 0.006 | 0.01 | 0.004 | 0.8583 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 974,260 | 410,536 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3471056 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs 3DMAX (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-navi-3dmax-2026-08-12 | 0.805 | 0.8249 | 0.0199 | 0.7544 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 113,752 | 80,950 | 2026-08-13T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2507618 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-august-31 | 0.0135 | 0.01 | -0.0035 | 0.8539 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 4,309,074 | 266,250 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
665374 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027 | 0.165 | 0.168 | 0.003 | 0.8306 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 57,925,425 | 928,547 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
562802 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections | 0.885 | 0.9026 | 0.0176 | 0.8011 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 61 | 5,189,078 | 514,255 | 2026-11-03T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
1130020 | Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-yabloko-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election | 0.025 | 0.0187 | -0.0063 | 0.8229 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 492,645 | 115,757 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
1469737 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-mojtaba-khamenei-be-head-of-state-in-iran-end-of-2026 | 0.8075 | 0.8275 | 0.02 | 0.7575 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 5,882,198 | 78,820 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
1130012 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-united-russia-er-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election | 0.675 | 0.6917 | 0.0167 | 0.7858 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 6,484,011 | 276,924 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3253744 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-4-august-11-140-159 | 0.0025 | 0.01 | 0.0075 | 0.7961 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 207,171 | 32,754 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3303794 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-66k-on-august-10-2026 | 0.0325 | 0.0343 | 0.0018 | 0.7729 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 108,672 | 27,121 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3005947 | Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/total-internet-blackout-in-iran-by-august-31-2026-20260720155238428 | 0.085 | 0.0843 | -0.0007 | 0.6077 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 169,292 | 14,204 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3421493 | Astana: Khumoun Sultanov vs Alexandr Binda | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-sultano-binda-2026-08-10 | 0.605 | 0.6225 | 0.0175 | 0.7887 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 90,308 | 336,103 | 2026-08-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3303579 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-above-2000-on-august-10-2026 | 0.0035 | 0.01 | 0.0065 | 0.7903 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 129,145 | 25,664 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3382769 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-august-10-0-39 | 0.35 | 0.3416 | -0.0084 | 0.6405 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 134,231 | 6,521 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3342074 | Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-ishowspeed-attend-cristiano-ronaldos-wedding-20260803185630256 | 0.0485 | 0.0441 | -0.0044 | 0.7733 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 452,127 | 20,052 | 2026-08-08T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
562007 | Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-joe-kent-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | 0.0025 | 0.01 | 0.0075 | 0.8883 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 8,691,211 | 1,730,270 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3303781 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-64k-on-august-10-2026 | 0.9725 | 0.9815 | 0.009 | 0.7498 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 98,714 | 24,886 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3399417 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-12-2026 | 0.038 | 0.0425 | 0.0045 | 0.7905 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 98,697 | 52,827 | 2026-08-12T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3275573 | UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-isl-ian1-2026-08-15 | 0.755 | 0.7729 | 0.0179 | 0.7733 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 163,434 | 195,450 | 2026-08-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3045818 | Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-darline-graham-win-the-south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-20260721172033651 | 0.57 | 0.6179 | 0.0479 | 0.6501 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 81 | 173,621 | 51,212 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3482350 | LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-gen-dnf-2026-08-10 | 0.765 | 0.7844 | 0.0194 | 0.7586 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 60 | 78,214 | 115,581 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2952493 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-31-20260716224448970-754-896-823 | 0.87 | 0.8764 | 0.0064 | 0.7087 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 1,543,014 | 104,992 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3438936 | Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Mindfreak (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Playoffs | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-gz1-mf-2026-08-10 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.8172 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 72,478 | 97,217 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3336166 | Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-bos-tor-2026-08-10 | 0.615 | 0.6327 | 0.0177 | 0.7818 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 71,884 | 289,250 | 2026-08-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3310013 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-wti-reach-85-in-august-2026 | 0.515 | 0.5228 | 0.0078 | 0.7433 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 77 | 434,957 | 41,147 | 2026-09-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3303833 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-70k-on-august-10-2026 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8001 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 48 | 79,157 | 49,972 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3382771 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-august-10-65-89 | 0.007 | 0.0164 | 0.0094 | 0.7333 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 107,422 | 11,386 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
601829 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-camilo-santana-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8552 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 4,640,084 | 478,794 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
559664 | Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-raphael-warnock-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-914 | 0.007 | 0.01 | 0.003 | 0.8829 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 32,028,256 | 1,684,368 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3215074 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-september-30-20260730004207224 | 0.0375 | 0.0345 | -0.003 | 0.8341 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 272,099 | 268,131 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
601819 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.635 | 0.6554 | 0.0204 | 0.7831 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 8,188,411 | 377,695 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3355797 | LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-sk-vit-2026-08-10 | 0.345 | 0.3538 | 0.0088 | 0.7887 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 61,302 | 296,943 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3128887 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-30-2026-20260727171615364-722-649-646-561-213-644 | 0.625 | 0.6601 | 0.0351 | 0.7303 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 80 | 406,686 | 80,650 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3422058 | Ethereum Up or Down on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-up-or-down-on-august-10-2026 | 0.295 | 0.3243 | 0.0293 | 0.7011 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 58,745 | 19,483 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2911874 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-august-31 | 0.0365 | 0.0322 | -0.0043 | 0.776 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 1,574,568 | 191,234 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3402192 | Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/yabloko-effectively-banned-from-2026-russian-elections-by-september-17-20260807161302974 | 0.61 | 0.6326 | 0.0226 | 0.6637 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 67,448 | 37,790 | 2026-09-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
559657 | Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-stephen-a-smith-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-914 | 0.004 | 0.01 | 0.006 | 0.875 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 21,578,631 | 1,304,740 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3414698 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 10? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-seoul-on-august-10-2026-32c | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8003 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 57,779 | 57,250 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3303714 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-54k-on-august-10-2026 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.8278 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 50 | 53,395 | 176,912 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3128886 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-december-31-2026-20260727171803489-375-949-645-919-269-157 | 0.825 | 0.8527 | 0.0277 | 0.7659 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 289,985 | 101,616 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3408805 | Valorant: TEC Esports vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/val-tec-drg-2026-08-10 | 0.38 | 0.3894 | 0.0094 | 0.6878 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 52,901 | 61,353 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3303750 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-60k-on-august-10-2026 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.8096 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 80,618 | 85,682 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
1394086 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-december-31-898-927 | 0.055 | 0.0508 | -0.0042 | 0.7747 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 2,177,225 | 151,560 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3325758 | Will Djurgardens IF win on 2026-08-10? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/swe-vas-dju-2026-08-10-dju | 0.565 | 0.5766 | 0.0116 | 0.774 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 50,869 | 199,621 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
908713 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026 | 0.545 | 0.5708 | 0.0258 | 0.7727 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 83 | 7,046,446 | 338,593 | 2026-12-09T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3477085 | ITF koksijde: Jelle Sels vs Lars Goran Verwerft | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/itf-sel-verwerf-2026-08-10 | 0.495 | 0.5111 | 0.0161 | 0.7489 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 48,175 | 88,461 | 2026-08-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3399427 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-14-2026 | 0.095 | 0.1057 | 0.0107 | 0.7419 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 62 | 73,130 | 54,134 | 2026-08-14T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3396867 | Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs Vitality Academy - Map 1 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-efa-vita-2026-08-10-game1 | 0.9995 | 0.9798 | -0.0197 | 0.8209 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 47,196 | 216,113 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3382770 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-august-10-40-64 | 0.625 | 0.6466 | 0.0216 | 0.5462 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 60 | 70,046 | 3,924 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3257355 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026 | 0.255 | 0.2904 | 0.0354 | 0.7152 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 224,307 | 50,231 | 2026-09-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3253754 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-4-august-11-160-179 | 0.345 | 0.3218 | -0.0232 | 0.7063 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 132,551 | 21,537 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3414739 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 10? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-august-10-2026-34c | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.7956 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 55,309 | 51,735 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2663611 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-60-day-negotiation-period-extended-20260624044855448 | 0.31 | 0.3603 | 0.0503 | 0.6471 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 1,226,189 | 67,155 | 2026-08-20T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
3303863 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-72k-on-august-10-2026 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8189 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 50 | 62,251 | 135,112 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
2658302 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-seen-in-public-by-august-31-223 | 0.086 | 0.0945 | 0.0085 | 0.7523 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 375,231 | 47,843 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-10T12:39:54.713Z |
THE ORACLE — Polymarket predictions
Live predictions for Polymarket markets, produced by THE ORACLE — an autonomous agent funded by $ORACLE pump.fun creator fees. Each row is a baseline-model forecast over live orderbook signals (momentum, microstructure, liquidity).
predictions.json/predictions.csv— 100 markets, refreshed each agent cycle.- Columns: question, category, market_prob, oracle_prob, edge, confidence, signal, model, backtest_acc, auc, modelability, volume, liquidity, end_date, captured_at.
Not financial advice.
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