calibration-scorecards / 2026-06.json
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Refresh calibration scorecard for 2026-06 (246497 rows)
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{
"month": "2026-06",
"count": 246497,
"mean_brier": 0.0138,
"mean_log_loss": 0.0565,
"by_venue": [
{
"venue": "kalshi",
"count": 153339,
"mean_brier": 0.0099,
"mean_log_loss": 0.0449
},
{
"venue": "polymarket",
"count": 93158,
"mean_brier": 0.0203,
"mean_log_loss": 0.0756
}
],
"by_category": [
{
"category": "Sports",
"count": 97946,
"mean_brier": 0.0136
},
{
"category": "Crypto",
"count": 46502,
"mean_brier": 0.0067
},
{
"category": "Up or Down",
"count": 26074,
"mean_brier": 0.0162
},
{
"category": "Weather",
"count": 9438,
"mean_brier": 0.0007
},
{
"category": "Mentions",
"count": 6824,
"mean_brier": 0.0019
},
{
"category": "Climate and Weather",
"count": 6555,
"mean_brier": 0.0031
},
{
"category": "Crypto Prices",
"count": 5885,
"mean_brier": 0.0165
},
{
"category": "Tennis",
"count": 5410,
"mean_brier": 0.0586
},
{
"category": "Esports",
"count": 4814,
"mean_brier": 0.045
},
{
"category": "Financials",
"count": 4615,
"mean_brier": 0.0282
}
],
"calibration_buckets": [
{
"bucket_lo": 0,
"bucket_hi": 0.1,
"count": 126473,
"actual_rate": 0.0009
},
{
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"bucket_hi": 0.2,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"count": 100281,
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}
],
"filter": {
"min_volume": 100
},
"generated_at": "2026-08-10T06:50:23.210Z"
}