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Datasets:
SimpleFunctions
/
calibration-scorecards

Modalities:
Tabular
Text
Languages:
English
Size:
< 1K
Tags:
prediction-markets
calibration
brier-score
log-loss
forecasting
License:
Dataset card Data Studio Files
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1
calibration-scorecards
File size: 2,514 Bytes
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{
  "month": "2026-06",
  "count": 246497,
  "mean_brier": 0.0138,
  "mean_log_loss": 0.0565,
  "by_venue": [
    {
      "venue": "kalshi",
      "count": 153339,
      "mean_brier": 0.0099,
      "mean_log_loss": 0.0449
    },
    {
      "venue": "polymarket",
      "count": 93158,
      "mean_brier": 0.0203,
      "mean_log_loss": 0.0756
    }
  ],
  "by_category": [
    {
      "category": "Sports",
      "count": 97946,
      "mean_brier": 0.0136
    },
    {
      "category": "Crypto",
      "count": 46502,
      "mean_brier": 0.0067
    },
    {
      "category": "Up or Down",
      "count": 26074,
      "mean_brier": 0.0162
    },
    {
      "category": "Weather",
      "count": 9438,
      "mean_brier": 0.0007
    },
    {
      "category": "Mentions",
      "count": 6824,
      "mean_brier": 0.0019
    },
    {
      "category": "Climate and Weather",
      "count": 6555,
      "mean_brier": 0.0031
    },
    {
      "category": "Crypto Prices",
      "count": 5885,
      "mean_brier": 0.0165
    },
    {
      "category": "Tennis",
      "count": 5410,
      "mean_brier": 0.0586
    },
    {
      "category": "Esports",
      "count": 4814,
      "mean_brier": 0.045
    },
    {
      "category": "Financials",
      "count": 4615,
      "mean_brier": 0.0282
    }
  ],
  "calibration_buckets": [
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0,
      "bucket_hi": 0.1,
      "count": 126473,
      "actual_rate": 0.0009
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.1,
      "bucket_hi": 0.2,
      "count": 5888,
      "actual_rate": 0.008
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.2,
      "bucket_hi": 0.3,
      "count": 3909,
      "actual_rate": 0.0159
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.3,
      "bucket_hi": 0.4,
      "count": 2847,
      "actual_rate": 0.0313
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.4,
      "bucket_hi": 0.5,
      "count": 2468,
      "actual_rate": 0.049
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.5,
      "bucket_hi": 0.6,
      "count": 2062,
      "actual_rate": 0.0849
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.6,
      "bucket_hi": 0.7,
      "count": 928,
      "actual_rate": 0.2737
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.7,
      "bucket_hi": 0.8,
      "count": 687,
      "actual_rate": 0.4294
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.8,
      "bucket_hi": 0.9,
      "count": 954,
      "actual_rate": 0.674
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.9,
      "bucket_hi": 1,
      "count": 100281,
      "actual_rate": 0.9933
    }
  ],
  "filter": {
    "min_volume": 100
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-08-10T06:50:23.210Z"
}