build-colombia-market-divergence.mjs

/**
 * Série de odds Polymarket + divergência mercado × pesquisa da Colômbia 2026, a partir do RAW
 * já buscado (data/colombia-poly-raw.json) via função Vercel standalone (EUA resolve gamma-api/clob).
 * market-odds inclui TODOS os candidatos do mercado; a divergência casa com as pesquisas (canon).
 *
 * Saída:
 *   data/colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv  (date, candidate, polymarket_pct, volume_usd)
 *   data/colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv    (poll_date, pollster, candidate, poll_pct, polymarket_pct, polymarket_date, divergence_pp)
 */
import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from 'fs'
import { join } from 'path'

const ROOT = process.cwd()
const OUT = join(ROOT, 'data'); mkdirSync(OUT, { recursive: true })
const csv = (rows) => rows.map((r) => r.map((v) => { const s = String(v ?? ''); return /[",\n]/.test(s) ? `"${s.replace(/"/g, '""')}"` : s }).join(',')).join('\n') + '\n'
const num = (s) => { const m = String(s).replace(/,/g, '').match(/-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?/); return m ? parseFloat(m[0]) : null }
const isoOf = (t) => new Date(t * 1000).toISOString().slice(0, 10)
const cleanName = (s) => String(s || '').replace(/\s*\([^)]*\)\s*$/, '').trim() // tira sufixo " (IND)"

// canon p/ casar mercado × pesquisa (nome completo da pesquisa)
const CANON = [['cepeda', 'Iván Cepeda'], ['espriella', 'Abelardo de la Espriella'], ['fajardo', 'Sergio Fajardo'], ['valencia', 'Paloma Valencia'], ['dávila', 'Vicky Dávila'], ['davila', 'Vicky Dávila'], ['quintero', 'Daniel Quintero'], ['vargas lleras', 'Germán Vargas Lleras'], ['galán', 'Juan Manuel Galán'], ['galan', 'Juan Manuel Galán'], ['pizarro', 'María José Pizarro'], ['pinzón', 'Juan Carlos Pinzón'], ['pinzon', 'Juan Carlos Pinzón'], ['barreras', 'Roy Barreras']]
const canon = (s) => { const t = String(s || '').toLowerCase(); for (const [k, v] of CANON) if (t.includes(k)) return v; return null }

// 1) odds diárias — TODOS os candidatos do mercado
const raw = JSON.parse(readFileSync(join(OUT, 'colombia-poly-raw.json'), 'utf-8'))
const odds = []
for (const m of raw.odds || []) {
  const name = cleanName(m.candidate)
  // descarta placeholders do mercado (Other/Person X/Candidate Y) explicitamente — não depender de history vazio
  if (!name || /^(Other|Person|Candidate)\b/i.test(name) || !Array.isArray(m.history) || !m.history.length) continue
  const byDay = new Map()
  for (const pt of m.history) byDay.set(isoOf(pt.t), pt.p)
  for (const [date, p] of byDay) odds.push({ date, candidate: name, pct: Math.round(p * 1000) / 10, volume: Math.round(m.volume || 0) })
}
odds.sort((a, b) => a.date === b.date ? b.pct - a.pct : a.date.localeCompare(b.date))
writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv'), csv([['date', 'candidate', 'polymarket_pct', 'volume_usd'], ...odds.map((o) => [o.date, o.candidate, o.pct, o.volume])]))
console.log(`📈 market-odds: ${odds.length} linhas, ${new Set(odds.map((o) => o.date)).size} datas, ${new Set(odds.map((o) => o.candidate)).size} candidatos (${raw.startDate?.slice(0, 10)}→${raw.endDate?.slice(0, 10)})`)

// 2) divergência: pesquisa de 1º turno × odd do candidato na data (canon, nearest on-or-before)
const idx = {}
for (const o of odds) { const k = canon(o.candidate); if (k) (idx[k] ||= []).push({ date: o.date, pct: o.pct }) }
for (const k in idx) idx[k].sort((a, b) => a.date.localeCompare(b.date))
const mAt = (k, d) => { const a = idx[k]; if (!a) return null; let best = null; for (const e of a) { if (e.date <= d) best = e; else break } return best }

const lines = readFileSync(join(ROOT, 'polls', 'colombia-first-round-polls.csv'), 'utf-8').trim().split('\n').slice(1)
const dv = [['poll_date', 'pollster', 'candidate', 'poll_pct', 'polymarket_pct', 'polymarket_date', 'divergence_pp']]
let matched = 0
for (const ln of lines) {
  const c = ln.split(','); const poll_date = c[0], pollster = c[2], candidate = c[4], poll = num(c[6])
  const k = canon(candidate); if (!k || poll == null) continue
  const m = mAt(k, poll_date); if (!m) continue
  dv.push([poll_date, pollster, k, poll, m.pct, m.date, Math.round((m.pct - poll) * 100) / 100]); matched++
}
writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv'), csv(dv))
console.log(`📊 divergence: ${matched} linhas (pesquisa 1T × mercado)`)