CHANGELOG.md

Changelog

All notable changes to this dataset. The data itself is dated and append-only; this log records structural changes (new files, schema, coverage).

2026-06-13 — Poll-centric research enrichment

Added

• polls/national-polls.json — each poll now carries field_window, field_midpoint, days_to_first_round/days_to_runoff, dating_source, and tse_registration.sample_design (sample composition/weighting, layer A).
• polls/sample-demographics.csv — flat view of the sample-design demographics (layer A) with explicit per-poll coverage (full_percentages for 12/22 polls; mentioned_no_pct for 10/22). This is sample composition/weighting, not vote-by-demographic crosstabs (layer B), which are absent from TSE open data.
• data/poll-divergence.csv — poll-level market×poll pairing anchored on the fieldwork midpoint, with naive_gap_pp explicitly flagged as P(win) − vote-share (not scale-reconciled).

2026-06-10 — Robustness & research release

Major enrichment toward academic-grade, poll-centric use.

Added

• polls/tse-registry.csv / .json — official TSE poll-registration registry (382 records): institute, sample, scope, UF, field dates, registration number, declared cost. Registration metadata only.
• polls/national-poll-results-firstround.csv (158 rows) and -secondround.csv (38 rows) — published national poll results, long format, carrying TSE registration numbers; reconstructed from the full platform history (22 distinct national polls, Mar–Jun 2026).
• polls/national-polls.json — full structured national polls (results + methodology).
• data/market-odds-timeseries.csv — daily Polymarket presidential odds per candidate, backfilled to 2026-04-17 (previously divergence/market files began only 2026-06-04).
• data/divergence-timeseries.csv — market × poll divergence per candidate, reconstructed by joining each national poll to the market odds on its date.
• DATA_DICTIONARY.md, CITATION.cff, CHANGELOG.md — academic documentation.

Fixed

• Backfill gap: the daily divergence/poll/news files had no historical backfill (only the analysis snapshots did), so the market & divergence series started on 2026-06-04. The new time-series files restore the full history from the archived snapshots.

2026-06-05 — Initial public mirror

• Daily mirror established: snapshots/analysis-criteriosa, snapshots/analysis-cards (backfilled from 2026-04-17), polls/polls-data-{date}.json, data/divergence-{date}.csv, news/news-{date}.json.
• Dual license (CC BY 4.0 data / Apache 2.0 code); database-free export pipeline (no subscriber data).