{ "arms_pooled": { "greedy": { "chunk_mae": 6.0079, "first_mae": 2.1871, "pred_key": "pred:bijou@40000" }, "draws10_t1": { "chunk_mae": 5.8492, "first_mae": 1.9736, "pred_key": "pred:bijou@40000_draws10_t1" } }, "subset_mode": false, "n_rows_paired": 25800, "read1_delta_ar": { "mean": -0.15422, "median": -0.06892, "ci95": [ -0.19484, -0.11319 ], "arm_win_rate": 0.5492, "n_frames": 17204, "most_influential_repos": [ { "repo": "willnorris/bbox-2", "n_excl": 16, "mean_without": -0.14513 }, { "repo": "jlesein/TestBoulon7", "n_excl": 160, "mean_without": -0.14795 }, { "repo": "dopaul/1500_chess_moves", "n_excl": 600, "mean_without": -0.16002 }, { "repo": "Hale-Sage/merge_data", "n_excl": 260, "mean_without": -0.15958 }, { "repo": "yangfengzzz/yellow_block_grasp_vary", "n_excl": 40, "mean_without": -0.14978 } ], "definition": "Delta_AR: paired per-frame chunk_mae, _draws10_t1 - greedy, core frames (negative = ensembling helps)" }, "read2_fairness_vs_flow": { "delta_ar_mean": -0.15422, "flow_teacher_gain": -1.258, "ar_gain_smaller_than_flow": true, "definition": "Delta_AR vs the flow teacher's draws1 6.6232 -> draws10 5.365 gain (-1.258) on the same panel \u2014 does AR ensemble like flow, or is greedy already the mean?" }, "read3_family_band": { "draws10_t1_chunk_mae": 5.8492, "flow_draws10_band": 5.365, "reaches_band": false, "anchors_record_only": { "teacher_draws10_heun30": [ 5.3645, 1.4242 ], "snapflow_student_mean10": [ 5.3675, 1.5927 ] }, "subset_mode": false, "note": "full panel" }, "read4_first_mirrors": { "delta_ar_first": { "mean": -0.21345, "median": -0.10407, "ci95": [ -0.23451, -0.19243 ], "arm_win_rate": 0.5887, "n_frames": 17204, "most_influential_repos": [ { "repo": "HITHY/so100_peach4", "n_excl": 156, "mean_without": -0.20717 }, { "repo": "shin1107/koch_base_episodes", "n_excl": 64, "mean_without": -0.2072 }, { "repo": "shin1107/koch_new", "n_excl": 60, "mean_without": -0.20738 }, { "repo": "shin1107/koch_new2", "n_excl": 64, "mean_without": -0.20973 }, { "repo": "kevin510/lerobot-cat-toy-placement", "n_excl": 16, "mean_without": -0.2168 } ], "definition": "first_mae mirror of read 1 (record-only)" }, "flow_first_gain_descriptive": -0.5089, "flow_first_band_descriptive": 1.4242, "draws10_t1_first_mae": 1.9736 }, "read5_execution_oracles": { "row_pairing": "full byte-match", "state_copy_byte_match": true, "state_copy_norm_byte_match": true, "ar_temperature": 1.0, "sample_draws": 10, "draws_policy": "bijou@40000_draws10_t1", "checkpoint": "fontaine_molmo2_ar_40k_ddp4/step_040000", "report_crosscheck": "both arms reproduced (|d| < 5e-3)" }, "expectations": { "e1_delta_negative": { "met": true, "ci95_excludes_zero": true }, "e2_gain_smaller_than_flow": { "met": true }, "e3_no_overtake_of_flow_band": { "met": true }, "e4_falsifier": { "rule": "falsified if Delta_AR > +0.1", "falsified": false } }, "decision": { "falsified": false, "assembly": [ "E1 MET + E2 MET: Delta_AR < 0 with CI95 excluding 0 and |Delta_AR| < 1.258 \u2014 the AR gain is real but SMALLER than the flow teacher's; greedy decode already sits near the predictive mean (the mean-collapse shape)", "E3 as expected: _draws10_t1 5.8492 does not overtake the flow draws10 band 5.365" ] } }