Daily Papers

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have displayed considerable promise in graph representation learning across various applications. The core learning process requires the initialization of model weight matrices within each GNN layer, which is typically accomplished via classic initialization methods such as Xavier initialization. However, these methods were originally motivated to stabilize the variance of hidden embeddings and gradients across layers of Feedforward Neural Networks (FNNs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to avoid vanishing gradients and maintain steady information flow. In contrast, within the GNN context classical initializations disregard the impact of the input graph structure and message passing on variance. In this paper, we analyze the variance of forward and backward propagation across GNN layers and show that the variance instability of GNN initializations comes from the combined effect of the activation function, hidden dimension, graph structure and message passing. To better account for these influence factors, we propose a new initialization method for Variance Instability Reduction within GNN Optimization (Virgo), which naturally tends to equate forward and backward variances across successive layers. We conduct comprehensive experiments on 15 datasets to show that Virgo can lead to superior model performance and more stable variance at initialization on node classification, link prediction and graph classification tasks. Codes are in https://github.com/LspongebobJH/virgo_icml2023.

Consistency Training (CT) has recently emerged as a promising alternative to diffusion models, achieving competitive performance in image generation tasks. However, non-distillation consistency training often suffers from high variance and instability, and analyzing and improving its training dynamics is an active area of research. In this work, we propose a novel CT training approach based on the Flow Matching framework. Our main contribution is a trained noise-coupling scheme inspired by the architecture of Variational Autoencoders (VAE). By training a data-dependent noise emission model implemented as an encoder architecture, our method can indirectly learn the geometry of the noise-to-data mapping, which is instead fixed by the choice of the forward process in classical CT. Empirical results across diverse image datasets show significant generative improvements, with our model outperforming baselines and achieving the state-of-the-art (SoTA) non-distillation CT FID on CIFAR-10, and attaining FID on par with SoTA on ImageNet at 64 times 64 resolution in 2-step generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/sony/vct .

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) offers a promising framework for optimizing large language models in reasoning tasks. However, existing RLVR algorithms focus on different granularities, and each has complementary strengths and limitations. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) updates the policy with token-level importance ratios, which preserves fine-grained credit assignment but often suffers from high variance and instability. In contrast, Group Sequence Policy Optimization (GSPO) applies single sequence-level importance ratios across all tokens in a response that better matches sequence-level rewards, but sacrifices token-wise credit assignment. In this paper, we propose Dynamic Hybrid Policy Optimization (DHPO) to bridge GRPO and GSPO within a single clipped surrogate objective. DHPO combines token-level and sequence-level importance ratios using weighting mechanisms. We explore two variants of the mixing mechanism, including an averaged mixing and an entropy-guided mixing. To further stabilize training, we employ a branch-specific clipping strategy that constrains token-level and sequence-level ratios within separate trust regions before mixing, preventing outliers in either branch from dominating the update. Across seven challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks, experiments on both dense and MoE models from the Qwen3 series show that DHPO consistently outperforms GRPO and GSPO. We will release our code upon acceptance of this paper.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive generative capabilities across diverse tasks but remain susceptible to hallucinations, confidently generated yet factually incorrect outputs. We introduce a reference-free, token-level hallucination detection framework that leverages the variance in token log-probabilities across multiple stochastic generations. Unlike prior methods that require ground-truth references or sentence-level verification, our approach is model-agnostic, interpretable, and suited for real-time or post-hoc analysis. We evaluate our method on unanswerable question prompts from the SQuAD v2 dataset and benchmark across three autoregressive models of varying scales: GPT-Neo 125M, Falcon 1B, and Mistral 7B. Through both quantitative metrics and visual diagnostics, we show that token-level variance reliably highlights instability in model outputs and correlates with hallucination patterns. Our framework is lightweight, reproducible, and adaptable to multiple domains, offering a valuable diagnostic tool for analyzing generative reliability in LLMs.

Scaling Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) to hundreds of layers introduces a structural vulnerability: networks can enter a silent, mean-dominated collapse state that homogenizes token representations and suppresses centered variation. Through mechanistic auditing, we isolate the trigger event of this collapse as Mean Mode Screaming (MMS). MMS can occur even when training appears stable, with a mean-coherent backward shock on residual writers that opens deep residual branches and drives the network into a mean-dominated state. We show this behavior is driven by an exact decomposition of these gradients into mean-coherent and centered components, compounded by the structural suppression of attention-logit gradients through the null space of the Softmax Jacobian once values homogenize. To address this, we propose Mean-Variance Split (MV-Split) Residuals, which combine a separately gained centered residual update with a leaky trunk-mean replacement. On a 400-layer single-stream DiT, MV-Split prevents the divergent collapse that crashes the un-stabilized baseline; it tracks close to the baseline's pre-crash trajectory while remaining substantially better than token-isotropic gating methods such as LayerScale across the full schedule. Finally, we present a 1000-layer DiT as a scale-validation run at boundary scales, establishing that the architecture remains stably trainable at extreme depth.

Reinforcement Learning has become a standard paradigm for aligning Large Language Models with human intent and task requirements. While Group Relative Policy Optimization offers an efficient, value-model-free alternative to Proximal Policy Optimization, adapting it to real-world multi-reward settings remains challenging. Standard scalarization practices, such as Reward Combination and Advantage Combination, suffer from significant drawbacks: Reward Combination frequently generates advantages with excessively large squared magnitudes that lead to training instability, while Advantage Combination relies on static hyperparameters and ignores cross-objective correlations. To address these limitations, we propose Dynamic Variance-adaptive Advantage Optimization (DVAO), which dynamically adjusts combination weights based on the empirical reward variance of each objective within a rollout group, effectively up-weighting objectives with a stronger learning signal while suppressing noisy ones. We mathematically prove that DVAO maintains bounded advantage magnitudes for stable training and introduces a self-adaptive cross-objective regularization mechanism. Extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning and tool-use benchmarks using Qwen3 and Qwen2.5 models demonstrate that DVAO significantly outperforms baseline methods, achieving a superior multi-objective Pareto frontier and robust training stability.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a dominant paradigm for enhancing Large Language Models (LLMs) reasoning, yet its reliance on external verifiers limits its scalability. Recent findings suggest that RLVR primarily functions by eliciting latent capabilities, motivating the development of verifier-free algorithms. However, in such settings, standard methods like Group Relative Policy Optimization face a critical challenge: destructive gradient variance that often leads to training collapse. To address this issue, we introduceVerifier-Independent Curriculum Reinforcement Learning (VI-CuRL), a framework that leverages the model's intrinsic confidence to construct a curriculum independent from external verifiers. By prioritizing high-confidence samples, VI-CuRL effectively manages the bias-variance trade-off, specifically targeting the reduction of action and problem variance. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis, proving that our estimator guarantees asymptotic unbiasedness. Empirically, VI-CuRL promotes stability and consistently outperforms verifier-independent baselines across six challenging benchmarks with/without verifiers.

Post-training plays a crucial role in refining and aligning large language models to meet specific tasks and human preferences. While recent advancements in post-training techniques, such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), leverage increased sampling with relative reward scoring to achieve superior performance, these methods often suffer from training instability that limits their practical adoption. To address this challenge, we present Group Variance Policy Optimization (GVPO). GVPO incorporates the analytical solution to KL-constrained reward maximization directly into its gradient weights, ensuring alignment with the optimal policy. The method provides intuitive physical interpretations: its gradient mirrors the mean squared error between the central distance of implicit rewards and that of actual rewards. GVPO offers two key advantages: (1) it guarantees a unique optimal solution, exactly the KL-constrained reward maximization objective, (2) it supports flexible sampling distributions that avoids on-policy and importance sampling limitations. By unifying theoretical guarantees with practical adaptability, GVPO establishes a new paradigm for reliable and versatile LLM post-training.

Mitigating social bias in Large Language Models (LLMs) presents a distinct alignment challenge: unlike verifiable tasks, bias lacks a single ground truth, creating a high-variance, subjective reward landscape. Previous preference-based fine-tuning methods have major trade-offs: Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is limited by the lack of exploration inherent in offline training, while Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) can lead to training instability due to potentially unreliable critic estimates. In this paper, we propose BiasGRPO, a framework using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to stabilize alignment by normalizing rewards across a group of sampled completions. By substituting the value function with a group-relative baseline, our approach reduces instability while maintaining the exploration benefits of online training. We find that BiasGRPO outperforms DPO and PPO across multiple benchmarks, indicating its effectiveness. To adapt GRPO, we synthetically extend a dataset spanning multiple domains and contexts. We also create and release a custom bias reward model that effectively guides generation while being highly compute-efficient and avoiding knowledge degradation, providing a valuable resource that can be seamlessly integrated into multi-objective RLHF pipelines.

Large multimodal reasoning models have achieved rapid progress, but their advancement is constrained by two major limitations: the absence of open, large-scale, high-quality long chain-of-thought (CoT) data, and the instability of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms in post-training. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), the standard framework for RL fine-tuning, is prone to gradient vanishing when reward variance is low, which weakens optimization signals and impairs convergence. This work makes three contributions: (1) We propose Variance-Aware Sampling (VAS), a data selection strategy guided by Variance Promotion Score (VPS) that combines outcome variance and trajectory diversity to promote reward variance and stabilize policy optimization. (2) We release large-scale, carefully curated resources containing ~1.6M long CoT cold-start data and ~15k RL QA pairs, designed to ensure quality, difficulty, and diversity, along with a fully reproducible end-to-end training codebase. (3) We open-source a family of multimodal reasoning models in multiple scales, establishing standardized baselines for the community. Experiments across mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of both the curated data and the proposed VAS. Comprehensive ablation studies and analyses provide further insight into the contributions of each component. In addition, we theoretically establish that reward variance lower-bounds the expected policy gradient magnitude, with VAS serving as a practical mechanism to realize this guarantee. Our code, data, and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/LengSicong/MMR1.

Training stability remains a central challenge in reinforcement learning (RL) for large language models (LLMs). Policy staleness, asynchronous training, and mismatches between training and inference engines all cause the behavior policy to diverge from the current policy, risking training collapse. Importance sampling provides a principled correction for this distribution shift but suffers from high variance; existing remedies such as token-level clipping and sequence-level normalization lack a unified theoretical foundation. We propose Variational sEquence-level Soft Policy Optimization (VESPO). By incorporating variance reduction into a variational formulation over proposal distributions, VESPO derives a closed-form reshaping kernel that operates directly on sequence-level importance weights without length normalization. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that VESPO maintains stable training under staleness ratios up to 64x and fully asynchronous execution, and delivers consistent gains across both dense and Mixture-of-Experts models. Code is available at https://github.com/FloyedShen/VESPO

A generative adversarial network (GAN) has been a representative backbone model in generative artificial intelligence (AI) because of its powerful performance in capturing intricate data-generating processes. However, the GAN training is well-known for its notorious training instability, usually characterized by the occurrence of mode collapse. Through the lens of gradients' variance, this work particularly analyzes the training instability and inefficiency in the presence of mode collapse by linking it to multimodality in the target distribution. To ease the raised training issues from severe multimodality, we introduce a novel GAN training framework that leverages a series of tempered distributions produced via convex interpolation. With our newly developed GAN objective function, the generator can learn all the tempered distributions simultaneously, conceptually resonating with the parallel tempering in Statistics. Our simulation studies demonstrate the superiority of our approach over existing popular training strategies in both image and tabular data synthesis. We theoretically analyze that such significant improvement can arise from reducing the variance of gradient estimates by using the tempered distributions. Finally, we further develop a variant of the proposed framework aimed at generating fair synthetic data which is one of the growing interests in the field of trustworthy AI.

Inducing and leveraging sparse activations during training and inference is a promising avenue for improving the computational efficiency of deep networks, which is increasingly important as network sizes continue to grow and their application becomes more widespread. Here we use the large width Gaussian process limit to analyze the behaviour, at random initialization, of nonlinear activations that induce sparsity in the hidden outputs. A previously unreported form of training instability is proven for arguably two of the most natural candidates for hidden layer sparsification; those being a shifted ReLU (phi(x)=max(0, x-tau) for tauge 0) and soft thresholding (phi(x)=0 for |x|letau and x-sign(x)tau for |x|>tau). We show that this instability is overcome by clipping the nonlinear activation magnitude, at a level prescribed by the shape of the associated Gaussian process variance map. Numerical experiments verify the theory and show that the proposed magnitude clipped sparsifying activations can be trained with training and test fractional sparsity as high as 85\% while retaining close to full accuracy.

Cross-lingual evaluation of large language models (LLMs) typically conflates two sources of variance: genuine model performance differences and measurement instability. We investigate evaluation reliability by holding generation conditions constant while varying target language. Using synthetic customer-support dialogues generated with identical parameters across Estonian, Finnish, and Hungarian, we test whether automatic metrics and LLM-as-a-judge scoring produce stable model rankings across these morphologically rich, related Finno-Ugric languages. With a small set of Estonian native speaker annotations as a reference point, we find systematic ranking instabilities: surface-level metrics (lexical diversity, surface and semantic similarity) maintain cross-language stability, but pragmatic judgments (coherence, instruction-following) exhibit rank inversions and near-zero correlations. Because generation is controlled, these inconsistencies reflect how judge scoring behaves differently across languages rather than true model differences. This controlled design provides a diagnostic probe: evaluation methods that fail to maintain stability under identical generation conditions signal transfer failure before deployment. Our findings suggest that zero-shot judge transfer is unreliable for discourse-level assessment in morphologically rich languages, motivating language-specific calibration against targeted human baselines. We release our controlled generation protocol, synthetic data, and evaluation framework to enable replication across language families at https://github.com/isaac-chung/cross-lingual-stability-judges.

Consistent 3D geometry estimation from streaming RGB input is crucial for real-world applications such as autonomous driving, embodied AI, and large-scale reconstruction. While modern monocular geometry foundation models achieve strong single-image accuracy, they exhibit severe temporal inconsistency on continuous input, notably dominated by scale--shift drifting. Through targeted empirical analysis, we trace this instability to its root cause: fluctuations in latent feature statistics, whose mean and variance directly determine the predicted depth's scale and shift. Building on this insight, we introduce Dynamic Feature Normalization (DyFN), a lightweight, causal recurrent module that dynamically and robustly modulates feature statistics to maintain stable geometry over time. We adapt powerful pretrained monocular geometry models for streaming by finetuning only DyFN, a mere 2\% additional parameters, while keeping the backbone frozen, thereby achieving temporal consistency without compromising single-image accuracy. Extensive experiments across four benchmarks show that DyFN effectively eliminates temporal artifacts such as disjointed layering and positional jitter, and achieves state-of-the-art temporal stability, improving over prior streaming methods by up to 14\% and even outperforming heavier non-causal video baselines. Project Page: https://shawlyu.github.io/DyFN

Many recent reasoning gains in large language models can be explained as distribution sharpening: biasing generation toward high-likelihood trajectories already supported by the pretrained model, rather than modifying its weights. A natural formalization is the sequence-level power distribution π_α(ymid x)propto p_θ(ymid x)^α (α>1), which concentrates mass on whole sequences instead of adjusting token-level temperature. Prior work shows that Metropolis--Hastings (MH) sampling from this distribution recovers strong reasoning performance, but at order-of-magnitude inference slowdowns. We introduce Power-SMC, a training-free Sequential Monte Carlo scheme that targets the same objective while remaining close to standard decoding latency. Power-SMC advances a small particle set in parallel, corrects importance weights token-by-token, and resamples when necessary, all within a single GPU-friendly batched decode. We prove that temperature τ=1/α is the unique prefix-only proposal minimizing incremental weight variance, interpret residual instability via prefix-conditioned Rényi entropies, and introduce an exponent-bridging schedule that improves particle stability without altering the target. On MATH500, Power-SMC matches or exceeds MH power sampling while reducing latency from 16--28times to 1.4--3.3times over baseline decoding. The code is available at https://github.com/ArminAzizi98/Power-SMC.

Stable pre-training is essential for achieving better-performing language models. However, tracking pre-training stability by calculating gradient variance at every step is impractical due to the significant computational costs. We explore Token Embedding Variability (TEV) as a simple and efficient proxy for assessing pre-training stability in language models with pre-layer normalization, given that shallower layers are more prone to gradient explosion (section 2.2). Moreover, we propose Multi-head Low-Rank Attention (MLRA) as an architecture to alleviate such instability by limiting the exponential growth of output embedding variance, thereby preventing the gradient explosion (section 3.2). Empirical results on GPT-2 with MLRA demonstrate increased stability and lower perplexity, particularly in deeper models.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown remarkable success in solving complex decision-making and control tasks. However, many model-free RL algorithms experience performance degradation due to inaccurate value estimation, particularly the overestimation of Q-values, which can lead to suboptimal policies. To address this issue, we previously proposed the Distributional Soft Actor-Critic (DSAC or DSACv1), an off-policy RL algorithm that enhances value estimation accuracy by learning a continuous Gaussian value distribution. Despite its effectiveness, DSACv1 faces challenges such as training instability and sensitivity to reward scaling, caused by high variance in critic gradients due to return randomness. In this paper, we introduce three key refinements to DSACv1 to overcome these limitations and further improve Q-value estimation accuracy: expected value substitution, twin value distribution learning, and variance-based critic gradient adjustment. The enhanced algorithm, termed DSAC with Three refinements (DSAC-T or DSACv2), is systematically evaluated across a diverse set of benchmark tasks. Without the need for task-specific hyperparameter tuning, DSAC-T consistently matches or outperforms leading model-free RL algorithms, including SAC, TD3, DDPG, TRPO, and PPO, in all tested environments. Additionally, DSAC-T ensures a stable learning process and maintains robust performance across varying reward scales. Its effectiveness is further demonstrated through real-world application in controlling a wheeled robot, highlighting its potential for deployment in practical robotic tasks.

As AI-generated images proliferate across digital platforms, reliable detection methods have become critical for combating misinformation and maintaining content authenticity. While numerous deepfake detection methods have been proposed, existing benchmarks predominantly evaluate fine-tuned models, leaving a critical gap in understanding out-of-the-box performance -- the most common deployment scenario for practitioners. We present the first comprehensive zero-shot evaluation of 16 state-of-the-art detection methods, comprising 23 pretrained detector variants (due to multiple released versions of certain detectors), across 12 diverse datasets, comprising 2.6~million image samples spanning 291 unique generators including modern diffusion models. Our systematic analysis reveals striking findings: (1)~no universal winner exists, with detector rankings exhibiting substantial instability (Spearman~ρ: 0.01 -- 0.87 across dataset pairs); (2)~a 37~percentage-point performance gap separates the best detector (75.0\% mean accuracy) from the worst (37.5\%); (3)~training data alignment critically impacts generalization, causing up to 20--60\% performance variance within architecturally identical detector families; (4)~modern commercial generators (Flux~Dev, Firefly~v4, Midjourney~v7) defeat most detectors, achieving only 18--30\% average accuracy; and (5)~we identify three systematic failure patterns affecting cross-dataset generalization. Statistical analysis confirms significant performance differences between detectors (Friedman test: χ^2=121.01, p<10^{-16}, Kendall~W=0.524). Our findings challenge the ``one-size-fits-all'' detector paradigm and provide actionable deployment guidelines, demonstrating that practitioners must carefully select detectors based on their specific threat landscape rather than relying on published benchmark performance.

Flow matching has recently emerged as a promising alternative to diffusion-based generative models, particularly for text-to-image generation. Despite its flexibility in allowing arbitrary source distributions, most existing approaches rely on a standard Gaussian distribution, a choice inherited from diffusion models, and rarely consider the source distribution itself as an optimization target in such settings. In this work, we show that principled design of the source distribution is not only feasible but also beneficial at the scale of modern text-to-image systems. Specifically, we propose learning a condition-dependent source distribution under flow matching objective that better exploit rich conditioning signals. We identify key failure modes that arise when directly incorporating conditioning into the source, including distributional collapse and instability, and show that appropriate variance regularization and directional alignment between source and target are critical for stable and effective learning. We further analyze how the choice of target representation space impacts flow matching with structured sources, revealing regimes in which such designs are most effective. Extensive experiments across multiple text-to-image benchmarks demonstrate consistent and robust improvements, including up to a 3x faster convergence in FID, highlighting the practical benefits of a principled source distribution design for conditional flow matching.

PPO has been widely adopted for training large language models (LLMs) at the token level in multi-turn dialogue and reasoning tasks. However, its performance is often unstable and prone to collapse. Through empirical analysis, we identify two main sources of instability in this setting: (1)~token-level importance sampling, which is misaligned with the natural granularity of multi-turn environments that have distinct turn-level stages, and (2) inaccurate advantage estimates from off-policy samples, where the critic has not learned to evaluate certain state-action pairs, resulting in high-variance gradients and unstable updates. To address these challenges, we introduce two complementary stabilization techniques: (1) turn-level importance sampling, which aligns optimization with the natural structure of multi-turn reasoning, and (2) clipping-bias correction, which normalizes gradients by downweighting unreliable, highly off-policy samples. Depending on how these components are combined, we obtain three variants: Turn-PPO (turn-level sampling only), S-PPO (clipping-bias correction applied to token-level PPO), and ST-PPO (turn-level sampling combined with clipping-bias correction). In our experiments, we primarily study ST-PPO and S-PPO, which together demonstrate how the two stabilization mechanisms address complementary sources of instability. Experiments on multi-turn search tasks across general QA, multi-hop QA, and medical multiple-choice QA benchmarks show that ST-PPO and S-PPO consistently prevent the performance collapses observed in large-model training, maintain lower clipping ratios throughout optimization, and achieve higher task performance than standard token-level PPO. These results demonstrate that combining turn-level importance sampling with clipping-bias correction provides a practical and scalable solution for stabilizing multi-turn LLM agent training.

This paper first answers the question "why do the two most powerful techniques Dropout and Batch Normalization (BN) often lead to a worse performance when they are combined together?" in both theoretical and statistical aspects. Theoretically, we find that Dropout would shift the variance of a specific neural unit when we transfer the state of that network from train to test. However, BN would maintain its statistical variance, which is accumulated from the entire learning procedure, in the test phase. The inconsistency of that variance (we name this scheme as "variance shift") causes the unstable numerical behavior in inference that leads to more erroneous predictions finally, when applying Dropout before BN. Thorough experiments on DenseNet, ResNet, ResNeXt and Wide ResNet confirm our findings. According to the uncovered mechanism, we next explore several strategies that modifies Dropout and try to overcome the limitations of their combination by avoiding the variance shift risks.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

Deep learning weather models now match numerical weather prediction accuracy while running orders of magnitude faster, but produce deterministic forecasts without uncertainty estimates, a critical gap for high-stakes decisions during extreme weather events. This paper proposes Neural Tangent Kernel-based uncertainty quantification (NTK-UQ) using last-layer empirical features. Theoretical analysis predicts that UQ quality is architecture-dependent through two mechanisms. First, a variance collapse mechanism explains when UQ fails: when the eigenvalue truncation rank approaches the effective rank of the feature space, the GP correction term consumes nearly all prior variance, destroying discrimination between tropical cyclones and routine conditions; architectures with concentrated spectra (spectral operators) require aggressive truncation (k leq 10), while attention-based models tolerate full-rank computation. Second, decomposition performance depends on the non-Gaussian, heavy-tailed structure of extreme weather: Independent Component Analysis exploits higher-order statistics (kurtosis, negentropy) to isolate heavy-tailed extreme-event features, achieving higher discrimination than singular value decomposition, which captures only second-order variance. A data-driven selection rule chooses ICA or SVD from the feature eigenspectrum concentration ratio, correctly prescribing the superior decomposition for all four evaluated architectures. Compared to split conformal prediction (the natural post-hoc baseline), NTK-UQ achieves 31--37\% sharper prediction intervals at 90\% coverage, and uniquely produces adaptive intervals that scale with extreme event severity, which conformal prediction cannot achieve by construction. The framework requires no retraining; inference-time uncertainty requires only a single matrix-vector product per sample.

Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (corrective instability), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (destructive instability), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism.

Variance reduction (VR) techniques have contributed significantly to accelerating learning with massive datasets in the smooth and strongly convex setting (Schmidt et al., 2017; Johnson & Zhang, 2013; Roux et al., 2012). However, such techniques have not yet met the same success in the realm of large-scale deep learning due to various factors such as the use of data augmentation or regularization methods like dropout (Defazio & Bottou, 2019). This challenge has recently motivated the design of novel variance reduction techniques tailored explicitly for deep learning (Arnold et al., 2019; Ma & Yarats, 2018). This work is an additional step in this direction. In particular, we exploit the ubiquitous clustering structure of rich datasets used in deep learning to design a family of scalable variance reduced optimization procedures by combining existing optimizers (e.g., SGD+Momentum, Quasi Hyperbolic Momentum, Implicit Gradient Transport) with a multi-momentum strategy (Yuan et al., 2019). Our proposal leads to faster convergence than vanilla methods on standard benchmark datasets (e.g., CIFAR and ImageNet). It is robust to label noise and amenable to distributed optimization. We provide a parallel implementation in JAX.

Using a 100-day symmetric window around the January 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, non-parametric statistical methods with bootstrap resampling (10,000 iterations) analyze distributional properties and anomalies. Results indicate a statistically significant 3.61\% Indonesian rupiah depreciation post-inauguration, with a large effect size (Cliff's Delta = -0.9224, CI: [-0.9727, -0.8571]). Central tendency shifted markedly, yet volatility remained stable (variance ratio = 0.9061, p = 0.504). Four significant anomalies exhibiting temporal clustering are detected. These findings provide quantitative evidence of political transition effects on emerging market currencies, highlighting implications for monetary policy and currency risk management.

Reliable evaluation is fundamental to the progress of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet the evaluation process during pre-training is plagued by significant instability that obscures true learning dynamics. In this work, we systematically diagnose this instability, attributing it to two distinct sources: Parameter Instability from training stochasticity and Evaluation Instability from noisy measurement protocols. To counteract both sources of noise, we introduce MaP, a dual-pronged framework that synergistically integrates checkpoint Merging and the Pass@k metric. Checkpoint merging smooths the parameter space by averaging recent model weights, while Pass@k provides a robust, low-variance statistical estimate of model capability. Extensive experiments show that MaP yields significantly smoother performance curves, reduces inter-run variance, and ensures more consistent model rankings. Ultimately, MaP provides a more reliable and faithful lens for observing LLM training dynamics, laying a crucial empirical foundation for LLM research.

Run the same LLM agent on the same task twice: do you get the same behavior? We find the answer is often no. In a study of 3,000 agent runs across three models (Llama 3.1 70B, GPT-4o, and Claude Sonnet 4.5) on HotpotQA, we observe that ReAct-style agents produce 2.0--4.2 distinct action sequences per 10 runs on average, even with identical inputs. More importantly, this variance predicts failure: tasks with consistent behavior (leq2 unique paths) achieve 80--92% accuracy, while highly inconsistent tasks (geq6 unique paths) achieve only 25--60%, a 32--55 percentage point gap depending on model. We trace variance to early decisions: 69% of divergence occurs at step 2, the first search query. Our results suggest that monitoring behavioral consistency during execution could enable early error detection and improve agent reliability.

Asynchronous reinforcement learning has become increasingly central to scaling LLM post-training, delivering major throughput gains by decoupling rollout generation from policy updates. However, widely used policy-gradient objectives such as REINFORCE and GRPO suffer under high asynchrony: stale rollouts produce heavy-tailed importance weights, so a small number of trajectories dominate updates and the policy-gradient estimator becomes markedly higher variance. Through systematic analysis on math, reasoning, and tool-use benchmarks, we find that this increasing variance is reliably predicted by collapsing effective sample size (ESS), which prior stabilization methods largely fail to address. Motivated by this diagnosis, we introduce Variance Controlled Policy Optimization (VCPO), a method that (i) dynamically scales the learning rate with ESS to dampen unreliable updates and (ii) applies a closed-form minimum-variance baseline for off-policy settings, without a critic model and adding minimal overhead. Empirically, across math and general reasoning benchmarks, this enables robustly stable asynchronous training compared to previous stabilization and algorithmic methods, even in highly off-policy regimes (128 steps off-policy). In a long-horizon, tool-use task, VCPO matches synchronous performance while delivering a 2.5times speedup in training time. Code is available at: https://github.com/mit-han-lab/vcpo

Autoregressive (AR) models are promising for image generation, yet continuous-token AR variants often trail latent diffusion and masked-generation models. The core issue is heterogeneous variance in VAE latents, which is amplified during AR decoding, especially under classifier-free guidance (CFG), and can cause variance collapse. We propose SphereAR to address this issue. Its core design is to constrain all AR inputs and outputs -- including after CFG -- to lie on a fixed-radius hypersphere (constant ell_2 norm), leveraging hyperspherical VAEs. Our theoretical analysis shows that hyperspherical constraint removes the scale component (the primary cause of variance collapse), thereby stabilizing AR decoding. Empirically, on ImageNet generation, SphereAR-H (943M) sets a new state of the art for AR models, achieving FID 1.34. Even at smaller scales, SphereAR-L (479M) reaches FID 1.54 and SphereAR-B (208M) reaches 1.92, matching or surpassing much larger baselines such as MAR-H (943M, 1.55) and VAR-d30 (2B, 1.92). To our knowledge, this is the first time a pure next-token AR image generator with raster order surpasses diffusion and masked-generation models at comparable parameter scales.

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

While flow matching is elegant, its reliance on single-sample conditional velocities leads to high-variance training targets that destabilize optimization and slow convergence. By explicitly characterizing this variance, we identify 1) a high-variance regime near the prior, where optimization is challenging, and 2) a low-variance regime near the data distribution, where conditional and marginal velocities nearly coincide. Leveraging this insight, we propose Stable Velocity, a unified framework that improves both training and sampling. For training, we introduce Stable Velocity Matching (StableVM), an unbiased variance-reduction objective, along with Variance-Aware Representation Alignment (VA-REPA), which adaptively strengthen auxiliary supervision in the low-variance regime. For inference, we show that dynamics in the low-variance regime admit closed-form simplifications, enabling Stable Velocity Sampling (StableVS), a finetuning-free acceleration. Extensive experiments on ImageNet 256times256 and large pretrained text-to-image and text-to-video models, including SD3.5, Flux, Qwen-Image, and Wan2.2, demonstrate consistent improvements in training efficiency and more than 2times faster sampling within the low-variance regime without degrading sample quality. Our code is available at https://github.com/linYDTHU/StableVelocity.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

This work studies training instabilities of behavior cloning with deep neural networks. We observe that minibatch SGD updates to the policy network during training result in sharp oscillations in long-horizon rewards, despite negligibly affecting the behavior cloning loss. We empirically disentangle the statistical and computational causes of these oscillations, and find them to stem from the chaotic propagation of minibatch SGD noise through unstable closed-loop dynamics. While SGD noise is benign in the single-step action prediction objective, it results in catastrophic error accumulation over long horizons, an effect we term gradient variance amplification (GVA). We show that many standard mitigation techniques do not alleviate GVA, but find an exponential moving average (EMA) of iterates to be surprisingly effective at doing so. We illustrate the generality of this phenomenon by showing the existence of GVA and its amelioration by EMA in both continuous control and autoregressive language generation. Finally, we provide theoretical vignettes that highlight the benefits of EMA in alleviating GVA and shed light on the extent to which classical convex models can help in understanding the benefits of iterate averaging in deep learning.

While fine-tuning of pre-trained language models generally helps to overcome the lack of labelled training samples, it also displays model performance instability. This instability mainly originates from randomness in initialisation or data shuffling. To address this, researchers either modify the training process or augment the available samples, which typically results in increased computational costs. We propose a new mitigation strategy, called Delayed Ensemble with Noisy Interpolation (DENI), that leverages the strengths of ensembling, noise regularisation and model interpolation, while retaining computational efficiency. We compare DENI with 9 representative mitigation strategies across 3 models, 4 tuning strategies and 7 text classification datasets. We show that: 1) DENI outperforms the best performing mitigation strategy (Ensemble), while using only a fraction of its cost; 2) the mitigation strategies are beneficial for parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods, outperforming full fine-tuning in specific cases; and 3) combining DENI with data augmentation often leads to even more effective instability mitigation.

Recent studies show that Large Language Models (LLMs) with safety alignment can be jail-broken by fine-tuning on a dataset mixed with harmful data. First time in the literature, we show that the jail-broken effect can be mitigated by separating states in the finetuning stage to optimize the alignment and user datasets. Unfortunately, our subsequent study shows that this simple Bi-State Optimization (BSO) solution experiences convergence instability when steps invested in its alignment state is too small, leading to downgraded alignment performance. By statistical analysis, we show that the excess drift towards consensus could be a probable reason for the instability. To remedy this issue, we propose Lazy(i) safety alignment (Lisa), which introduces a proximal term to constraint the drift of each state. Theoretically, the benefit of the proximal term is supported by the convergence analysis, wherein we show that a sufficient large proximal factor is necessary to guarantee Lisa's convergence. Empirically, our results on four downstream finetuning tasks show that Lisa with a proximal term can significantly increase alignment performance while maintaining the LLM's accuracy on the user tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/git-disl/Lisa.

Training large-scale machine learning models poses distinct system challenges, given both the size and complexity of today's workloads. Recently, many organizations training state-of-the-art Generative AI models have reported cases of instability during training, often taking the form of loss spikes. Numeric deviation has emerged as a potential cause of this training instability, although quantifying this is especially challenging given the costly nature of training runs. In this work, we develop a principled approach to understanding the effects of numeric deviation, and construct proxies to put observations into context when downstream effects are difficult to quantify. As a case study, we apply this framework to analyze the widely-adopted Flash Attention optimization. We find that Flash Attention sees roughly an order of magnitude more numeric deviation as compared to Baseline Attention at BF16 when measured during an isolated forward pass. We then use a data-driven analysis based on the Wasserstein Distance to provide upper bounds on how this numeric deviation impacts model weights during training, finding that the numerical deviation present in Flash Attention is 2-5 times less significant than low-precision training.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where reasoning, such as multi-step problem solving and chain-of-thought, is essential. Yet, current evaluation practices overwhelmingly report single-run accuracy while ignoring the intrinsic uncertainty that naturally arises from stochastic decoding. This omission creates a blind spot because practitioners cannot reliably assess whether a method's reported performance is stable, reproducible, or cost-consistent. We introduce ReasonBENCH, the first benchmark designed to quantify the underlying instability in LLM reasoning. ReasonBENCH provides (i) a modular evaluation library that standardizes reasoning frameworks, models, and tasks, (ii) a multi-run protocol that reports statistically reliable metrics for both quality and cost, and (iii) a public leaderboard to encourage variance-aware reporting. Across tasks from different domains, we find that the vast majority of reasoning strategies and models exhibit high instability. Notably, even strategies with similar average performance can display confidence intervals up to four times wider, and the top-performing methods often incur higher and less stable costs. Such instability compromises reproducibility across runs and, consequently, the reliability of reported performance. To better understand these dynamics, we further analyze the impact of prompts, model families, and scale on the trade-off between solve rate and stability. Our results highlight reproducibility as a critical dimension for reliable LLM reasoning and provide a foundation for future reasoning methods and uncertainty quantification techniques. ReasonBENCH is publicly available at https://github.com/au-clan/ReasonBench .

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

We identify first-mover bias -- path-dependent concentration of SHAP feature importance from sequential residual fitting in gradient boosting -- as a mechanistic contributor to attribution instability under multicollinearity. Scaling up a single model amplifies this effect: a Large Single Model matching our method's total tree count produces the poorest attribution reproducibility of any approach tested. We show that model independence largely neutralizes first-mover bias. Both DASH (Diversified Aggregation of SHAP) and simple seed-averaging (Stochastic Retrain) restore stability by breaking the sequential dependency chain. At rho=0.9, both achieve stability ~0.977, while Single Best degrades to 0.958 and LSM to 0.938. On Breast Cancer, DASH improves stability from 0.376 to 0.925 (+0.549), outperforming Stochastic Retrain by +0.063. Under nonlinear DGPs, the advantage emerges at rho>=0.7. DASH provides two diagnostic tools -- the Feature Stability Index and Importance-Stability Plot -- that detect first-mover bias without ground truth. A crossed ANOVA with formal F-statistics confirms the mechanism: DASH shifts variance from model-dominated (40.6%) to data-dominated (73.6%). Software at https://github.com/DrakeCaraker/dash-shap

Agentic systems are evaluated on benchmarks where agents interact with environments to solve tasks. Most papers report a pass@1 score computed from a single run per task, assuming this gives a reliable performance estimate. We test this assumption by collecting 60,000 agentic trajectories on SWE-Bench-Verified, spanning three models and two scaffolds. We find substantial variance: single-run pass@1 estimates vary by 2.2 to 6.0 percentage points depending on which run is selected, with standard deviations exceeding 1.5 percentage points even at temperature 0. This variance has critical implications: reported improvements of 2--3 percentage points may reflect evaluation noise rather than genuine algorithmic progress. Through token-level analysis, we show that trajectories diverge early, often within the first few percent of tokens, and that these small differences cascade into different solution strategies. To enable reliable evaluation of agentic systems, we recommend three concrete practices: (1) estimate pass@1 from multiple independent runs per task, especially when measuring small improvements, (2) use statistical power analysis to determine the number of runs needed to detect expected effect sizes, and (3) consider metrics like pass@k (optimistic bound) and pass^k (pessimistic bound) with k>1 to better characterize the full performance envelope. While these practices increase evaluation cost, they are essential for distinguishing genuine scientific progress from statistical noise.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is highly effective for post-training autoregressive (AR) language models, yet its direct application to diffusion large language models (dLLMs) often triggers reward collapse. We identify two sources of incompatibility. First, GRPO relies on importance ratios defined by sequence probabilities, which are intractable in dLLMs and must be estimated (e.g., via ELBO-based or mean-field likelihood proxies), yielding inherently noisy ratios. Second, standard GRPO's formulation is not designed for estimated ratios: its conditional clipping can be anomalously bypassed by model-agnostic estimation noise, producing gradient spikes, while its fixed group-size normalization amplifies gradient-magnitude fluctuations under high-variance ratio estimates. We show these effects form a self-reinforcing instability loop that drives policy drift and further increases ratio variance. To break this loop, we propose StableDRL, a reformulation of GRPO tailored for dLLMs that uses (i) unconditional clipping to suppress outlier-induced spikes and (ii) self-normalization to constrain updates within the convex hull of per-sample gradients. We further extend StableDRL to block-wise diffusion models via a staircase attention mechanism.

Recent progress in multi-turn reinforcement learning (RL) has significantly improved reasoning LLMs' performances on complex interactive tasks. Despite advances in stabilization techniques such as fine-grained credit assignment and trajectory filtering, instability remains pervasive and often leads to training collapse. We argue that this instability stems from inefficient exploration in multi-turn settings, where policies continue to generate low-information actions that neither reduce uncertainty nor advance task progress. To address this issue, we propose Token- and Turn-level Policy Optimization (T^2PO), an uncertainty-aware framework that explicitly controls exploration at fine-grained levels. At the token level, T^2PO monitors uncertainty dynamics and triggers a thinking intervention once the marginal uncertainty change falls below a threshold. At the turn level, T^2PO identifies interactions with negligible exploration progress and dynamically resamples such turns to avoid wasted rollouts. We evaluate T^2PO in diverse environments, including WebShop, ALFWorld, and Search QA, demonstrating substantial gains in training stability and performance improvements with better exploration efficiency. Code is available at: https://github.com/WillDreamer/T2PO.

Training instability remains a critical challenge in large language model (LLM) pretraining, often manifesting as sudden gradient explosions that waste significant computational resources. We study training failures in a 5M-parameter NanoGPT model scaled via μP, identifying two key phenomena preceding collapse: (1) rapid decline in weight matrix stable rank (ratio of squared Frobenius norm to squared spectral norm), and (2) increasing alignment between adjacent layer Jacobians. We prove theoretically that these two conditions jointly cause exponential gradient norm growth with network depth. To break this instability mechanism, we propose MSign, a new optimizer that periodically applies matrix sign operations to restore stable rank. Experiments on models from 5M to 3B parameters demonstrate that MSign effectively prevents training failures with a computational overhead of less than 7.0%.

We study estimation and clustering in Gaussian mixture models under variance misspecification. Observations are generated with true variance σ^2, while the component means are estimated using a likelihood with variance τ^2, yielding a family of mismatched likelihood functions parameterized by the ratio ρ=τ/σ. We show that the interplay between ρ and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) induces a sharp phase diagram. Under correct specification (ρ=1), maximum likelihood recovers the true means, independently of the SNR. However, once the model is misspecified, two different regimes emerge. Under under-smoothing (ρ<1), the estimated Gaussian means are displaced from the truth, and in low SNR this discrepancy grows as the SNR decreases: for every fixed ρ<1, the squared error scales as SNR^{-1}. Under over-smoothing (ρ>1), the fitted likelihood blurs the cluster separation, causing distinct component means to collapse towards the overall mixture center once ρ^2 exceeds a threshold of the form 1 + λ,SNR, where λ depends on the geometry of the true means. We further show that the hard assignment objective arises as the limit τto 0 of the same mismatched likelihood family, and derive corresponding low- and high-SNR results for hard-assignment mean estimation and latent-label recovery. Furthermore, in low SNR, Bayes-optimal clustering is close to random guessing, and the hard-assignment target remains far from the true means. These results show that in low-SNR applications, even mild variance misspecification or hard-assignment procedures can induce substantial bias, whereas in high SNR these effects are largely absent.

Deep learning methods for unsupervised registration often rely on objectives that assume a uniform noise level across the spatial domain (e.g. mean-squared error loss), but noise distributions are often heteroscedastic and input-dependent in real-world medical images. Thus, this assumption often leads to degradation in registration performance, mainly due to the undesired influence of noise-induced outliers. To mitigate this, we propose a framework for heteroscedastic image uncertainty estimation that can adaptively reduce the influence of regions with high uncertainty during unsupervised registration. The framework consists of a collaborative training strategy for the displacement and variance estimators, and a novel image fidelity weighting scheme utilizing signal-to-noise ratios. Our approach prevents the model from being driven away by spurious gradients caused by the simplified homoscedastic assumption, leading to more accurate displacement estimation. To illustrate its versatility and effectiveness, we tested our framework on two representative registration architectures across three medical image datasets. Our method consistently outperforms baselines and produces sensible uncertainty estimates. The code is publicly available at https://voldemort108x.github.io/hetero_uncertainty/.

As AI becomes more capable, we entrust it with more general and consequential tasks. The risks from failure grow more severe with increasing task scope. It is therefore important to understand how extremely capable AI models will fail: Will they fail by systematically pursuing goals we do not intend? Or will they fail by being a hot mess, and taking nonsensical actions that do not further any goal? We operationalize this question using a bias-variance decomposition of the errors made by AI models: An AI's incoherence on a task is measured over test-time randomness as the fraction of its error that stems from variance rather than bias in task outcome. Across all tasks and frontier models we measure, the longer models spend reasoning and taking actions, the more incoherent their failures become. Incoherence changes with model scale in a way that is experiment dependent. However, in several settings, larger, more capable models are more incoherent than smaller models. Consequently, scale alone seems unlikely to eliminate incoherence. Instead, as more capable AIs pursue harder tasks, requiring more sequential action and thought, our results predict failures to be accompanied by more incoherent behavior. This suggests a future where AIs sometimes cause industrial accidents (due to unpredictable misbehavior), but are less likely to exhibit consistent pursuit of a misaligned goal. This increases the relative importance of alignment research targeting reward hacking or goal misspecification.

Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging research problem. We present several volatility models based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework for modeling the volatility of ten stocks listed in the national stock exchange (NSE) of India. The stocks are selected from the auto sector and the banking sector of the Indian economy, and they have a significant impact on the sectoral index of their respective sectors in the NSE. The historical stock price records from Jan 1, 2010, to Apr 30, 2021, are scraped from the Yahoo Finance website using the DataReader API of the Pandas module in the Python programming language. The GARCH modules are built and fine-tuned on the training data and then tested on the out-of-sample data to evaluate the performance of the models. The analysis of the results shows that asymmetric GARCH models yield more accurate forecasts on the future volatility of stocks.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

We prove stability for a class of heterogeneous catalysis models in the L_p-setting. We consider a setting in a finite three-dimensional pore of cylinder-like geometry, with the lateral walls acting as a catalytic surface. Under a reasonable condition on the involved parameters, we show that given equilibria are normally stable, i.e. solutions are attracted at an exponential rate. The potential incidence of instability is discussed as well.

Although deep learning (DL) has received much attention in accelerated magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), recent studies show that tiny input perturbations may lead to instabilities of DL-based MRI reconstruction models. However, the approaches of robustifying these models are underdeveloped. Compared to image classification, it could be much more challenging to achieve a robust MRI image reconstruction network considering its regression-based learning objective, limited amount of training data, and lack of efficient robustness metrics. To circumvent the above limitations, our work revisits the problem of DL-based image reconstruction through the lens of robust machine learning. We find a new instability source of MRI image reconstruction, i.e., the lack of reconstruction robustness against spatial transformations of an input, e.g., rotation and cutout. Inspired by this new robustness metric, we develop a robustness-aware image reconstruction method that can defend against both pixel-wise adversarial perturbations as well as spatial transformations. Extensive experiments are also conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approaches.

Data-parallel (DP) training with synchronous all-reduce is a dominant paradigm for full-parameter fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs). While parameter synchronization guarantees numerical equivalence of model weights after each iteration, it does not necessarily imply alignment of worker-level optimization dynamics before gradient aggregation. This paper identifies and studies this latent mismatch, termed silent inconsistency, where cross-worker divergence in losses and gradients can remain invisible under conventional aggregated monitoring signals. We propose a lightweight, model-agnostic diagnostic framework that quantifies worker-level consistency using training signals readily available in standard pipelines. Specifically, we introduce three complementary metrics: loss dispersion, gradient-norm dispersion, and gradient-direction consistency measured by inter-worker cosine similarity. The proposed metrics incur negligible overhead and require no modification to model architecture, synchronization mechanisms, or optimization algorithms. We validate the framework by fully fine-tuning the 1B-parameter openPangu-Embedded-1B-V1.1 model on the tatsu-lab/alpaca dataset using an 8-NPU DP setup, under controlled perturbations of cross-rank stochasticity. Experimental results show that progressively desynchronized data shuffling and random seeds lead to substantial increases in loss/gradient dispersion and reduced directional alignment, despite smooth globally averaged loss curves. These findings demonstrate that the proposed indicators provide actionable visibility into hidden instability modes in large-scale DP fine-tuning, enabling more reliable diagnosis and configuration assessment.

The outcome of Large Language Model (LLM) pre-training strongly depends on weight initialization and variance control strategies. Although the importance of initial variance control has been well documented in neural networks in general, the literature on initialization and management of its growth during LLM pre-training, specifically, is somewhat sparse. In this paper, we introduce the Layer Index Rescaling (LIR) weight initialization scheme, and the Target Variance Rescaling (TVR) variance control strategy. Experiments on a 1B parameter LLaMA model demonstrate that better variance management using these techniques yields substantial improvements in downstream task performance (up to 4.6% on common pre-training benchmarks) and reduces extreme activation values, thus mitigating challenges associated with quantization and low-precision training. Our code is available at: https://github.com/bluorion-com/weight_rescaling.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

In this paper I investigate the effect of random seed selection on the accuracy when using popular deep learning architectures for computer vision. I scan a large amount of seeds (up to 10^4) on CIFAR 10 and I also scan fewer seeds on Imagenet using pre-trained models to investigate large scale datasets. The conclusions are that even if the variance is not very large, it is surprisingly easy to find an outlier that performs much better or much worse than the average.

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change unexpectedly [1]. Price volatility is often detrimental to the return economics, and thus, investors should factor it in whenever making investment decisions, choices, and temporal or permanent moves. It is, therefore, crucial to make necessary and regular short and long-term stock price volatility forecasts for the safety and economics of investors returns. These forecasts should be accurate and not misleading. Different models and methods, such as ARCH GARCH models, have been intuitively implemented to make such forecasts. However, such traditional means fail to capture the short-term volatility forecasts effectively. This paper, therefore, investigates and implements a combination of numeric and probabilistic models for short-term volatility and return forecasting for high-frequency trades. The essence is that one-day-ahead volatility forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical market prediction (NMP) model. Firstly, the stock price data from NMP was corrected by a GP. Since it is not easy to set price limits in a market due to its free nature and randomness, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected stock prices and returns. Forecasting errors were evaluated using the implied and estimated data.

Training deep neural networks--and more recently, large models--demands efficient and scalable optimizers. Adaptive gradient algorithms like Adam, AdamW, and their variants have been central to this task. Despite the development of numerous variance reduction algorithms in the past decade aimed at accelerating stochastic optimization in both convex and nonconvex settings, variance reduction has not found widespread success in training deep neural networks or large language models. Consequently, it has remained a less favored approach in modern AI. In this paper, to unleash the power of variance reduction for efficient training of large models, we propose a unified optimization framework, MARS (Make vAriance Reduction Shine), which reconciles preconditioned gradient methods with variance reduction via a scaled stochastic recursive momentum technique. Within our framework, we introduce three instances of MARS that leverage preconditioned gradient updates based on AdamW, Lion, and Shampoo, respectively. We also draw a connection between our algorithms and existing optimizers. Experimental results on training GPT-2 models indicate that MARS consistently outperforms AdamW by a large margin.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

Recent self-supervised methods for image representation learning are based on maximizing the agreement between embedding vectors from different views of the same image. A trivial solution is obtained when the encoder outputs constant vectors. This collapse problem is often avoided through implicit biases in the learning architecture, that often lack a clear justification or interpretation. In this paper, we introduce VICReg (Variance-Invariance-Covariance Regularization), a method that explicitly avoids the collapse problem with a simple regularization term on the variance of the embeddings along each dimension individually. VICReg combines the variance term with a decorrelation mechanism based on redundancy reduction and covariance regularization, and achieves results on par with the state of the art on several downstream tasks. In addition, we show that incorporating our new variance term into other methods helps stabilize the training and leads to performance improvements.

Sampling-based algorithms, which eliminate ''unimportant'' computations during forward and/or back propagation (BP), offer potential solutions to accelerate neural network training. However, since sampling introduces approximations to training, such algorithms may not consistently maintain accuracy across various tasks. In this work, we introduce a variance-controlled adaptive sampling (VCAS) method designed to accelerate BP. VCAS computes an unbiased stochastic gradient with fine-grained layerwise importance sampling in data dimension for activation gradient calculation and leverage score sampling in token dimension for weight gradient calculation. To preserve accuracy, we control the additional variance by learning the sample ratio jointly with model parameters during training. We assessed VCAS on multiple fine-tuning and pre-training tasks in both vision and natural language domains. On all the tasks, VCAS can preserve the original training loss trajectory and validation accuracy with an up to 73.87% FLOPs reduction of BP and 49.58% FLOPs reduction of the whole training process. The implementation is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/VCAS .

Large Language Models (LLMs) can significantly improve their reasoning capabilities by interacting with external tools, a paradigm known as Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR). However, extending TIR to multi-turn scenarios using Reinforcement Learning (RL) is often hindered by training instability and performance collapse. We identify that such instability is primarily caused by a distributional drift from external tool feedback, leading to the generation of low-probability tokens. This issue compounds over successive turns, causing catastrophic gradient norm explosions that derail the training process. To address this challenge, we introduce SimpleTIR , a plug-and-play algorithm that stabilizes multi-turn TIR training. Its core strategy is to identify and filter out trajectories containing void turns, i.e., turns that yield neither a code block nor a final answer. By removing these problematic trajectories from the policy update, SimpleTIR effectively blocks the harmful, high-magnitude gradients, thus stabilizing the learning dynamics. Extensive experiments show that SimpleTIR achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging math reasoning benchmarks, notably elevating the AIME24 score from a text-only baseline of 22.1 to 50.5 when starting from the Qwen2.5-7B base model. Furthermore, by avoiding the constraints of supervised fine-tuning, SimpleTIR encourages the model to discover diverse and sophisticated reasoning patterns, such as self-correction and cross-validation.

Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting the volatility of three equities listed on India's national stock market (NSE), we propose multiple volatility models depending on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Glosten-Jagannathan-GARCH (GJR-GARCH), Exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH), and LSTM framework. Sector-wise stocks have been chosen in our study. The sectors which have been considered are banking, information technology (IT), and pharma. yahoo finance has been used to obtain stock price data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2021. Among the pulled-out records, the data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2020 have been taken for training, and data from 2021 have been chosen for testing our models. The performance of predicting the volatility of stocks of three sectors has been evaluated by implementing three different types of GARCH models as well as by the LSTM model are compared. It has been observed the LSTM performed better in predicting volatility in pharma over banking and IT sectors. In tandem, it was also observed that E-GARCH performed better in the case of the banking sector and for IT and pharma, GJR-GARCH performed better.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Federated learning algorithms, such as FedAvg, are negatively affected by data heterogeneity and partial client participation. To mitigate the latter problem, global variance reduction methods, like FedVARP, leverage stale model updates for non-participating clients. These methods are effective under homogeneous client participation. Yet, this paper shows that, when some clients participate much less than others, aggregating updates with different levels of staleness can detrimentally affect the training process. Motivated by this observation, we introduce FedStale, a novel algorithm that updates the global model in each round through a convex combination of "fresh" updates from participating clients and "stale" updates from non-participating ones. By adjusting the weight in the convex combination, FedStale interpolates between FedAvg, which only uses fresh updates, and FedVARP, which treats fresh and stale updates equally. Our analysis of FedStale convergence yields the following novel findings: i) it integrates and extends previous FedAvg and FedVARP analyses to heterogeneous client participation; ii) it underscores how the least participating client influences convergence error; iii) it provides practical guidelines to best exploit stale updates, showing that their usefulness diminishes as data heterogeneity decreases and participation heterogeneity increases. Extensive experiments featuring diverse levels of client data and participation heterogeneity not only confirm these findings but also show that FedStale outperforms both FedAvg and FedVARP in many settings.

Data balancing across multiple modalities and sources appears in various forms in foundation models in machine learning and AI, e.g. in CLIP and DINO. We show that data balancing across modalities and sources actually offers an unsuspected benefit: variance reduction. We present a non-asymptotic statistical bound that quantifies this variance reduction effect and relates it to the eigenvalue decay of Markov operators. Furthermore, we describe how various forms of data balancing in contrastive multimodal learning and self-supervised clustering can be better understood, and even improved upon, owing to our variance reduction viewpoint.

We study variance-dependent regret bounds for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Algorithms with variance-dependent regret guarantees can automatically exploit environments with low variance (e.g., enjoying constant regret on deterministic MDPs). The existing algorithms are either variance-independent or suboptimal. We first propose two new environment norms to characterize the fine-grained variance properties of the environment. For model-based methods, we design a variant of the MVP algorithm (Zhang et al., 2021a). We apply new analysis techniques to demonstrate that this algorithm enjoys variance-dependent bounds with respect to the norms we propose. In particular, this bound is simultaneously minimax optimal for both stochastic and deterministic MDPs, the first result of its kind. We further initiate the study on model-free algorithms with variance-dependent regret bounds by designing a reference-function-based algorithm with a novel capped-doubling reference update schedule. Lastly, we also provide lower bounds to complement our upper bounds.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have recently garnered significant attention for their innovative next-scale prediction paradigm, offering notable advantages in both inference efficiency and image quality compared to traditional multi-step autoregressive (AR) and diffusion models. However, despite their efficiency, VAR models often suffer from the diversity collapse i.e., a reduction in output variability, analogous to that observed in few-step distilled diffusion models. In this paper, we introduce DiverseVAR, a simple yet effective approach that restores the generative diversity of VAR models without requiring any additional training. Our analysis reveals the pivotal component of the feature map as a key factor governing diversity formation at early scales. By suppressing the pivotal component in the model input and amplifying it in the model output, DiverseVAR effectively unlocks the inherent generative potential of VAR models while preserving high-fidelity synthesis. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach substantially enhances generative diversity with only neglectable performance influences. Our code will be publicly released at https://github.com/wangtong627/DiverseVAR.

Power transforms are popular parametric techniques for making data more Gaussian-like, and are widely used as preprocessing steps in statistical analysis and machine learning. However, we find that direct implementations of power transforms suffer from severe numerical instabilities, which can lead to incorrect results or even crashes. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the sources of these instabilities and propose effective remedies. We further extend power transforms to the federated learning setting, addressing both numerical and distributional challenges that arise in this context. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our methods are both effective and robust, substantially improving stability compared to existing approaches.

Recent studies empirically demonstrate the positive relationship between the transferability of neural networks and the within-class variation of the last layer features. The recently discovered Neural Collapse (NC) phenomenon provides a new perspective of understanding such last layer geometry of neural networks. In this paper, we propose a novel metric, named Variability Collapse Index (VCI), to quantify the variability collapse phenomenon in the NC paradigm. The VCI metric is well-motivated and intrinsically related to the linear probing loss on the last layer features. Moreover, it enjoys desired theoretical and empirical properties, including invariance under invertible linear transformations and numerical stability, that distinguishes it from previous metrics. Our experiments verify that VCI is indicative of the variability collapse and the transferability of pretrained neural networks.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

Scaling limits, such as infinite-width limits, serve as promising theoretical tools to study large-scale models. However, it is widely believed that existing infinite-width theory does not faithfully explain the behavior of practical networks, especially those trained in standard parameterization (SP) meaning He initialization with a global learning rate. For instance, existing theory for SP predicts instability at large learning rates and vanishing feature learning at stable ones. In practice, however, optimal learning rates decay slower than theoretically predicted and networks exhibit both stable training and non-trivial feature learning, even at very large widths. Here, we show that this discrepancy is not fully explained by finite-width phenomena. Instead, we find a resolution through a finer-grained analysis of the regime previously considered unstable and therefore uninteresting. In particular, we show that, under cross-entropy (CE) loss, the unstable regime comprises two distinct sub-regimes: a catastrophically unstable regime and a more benign controlled divergence regime, where logits diverge but gradients and activations remain stable. Moreover, under large learning rates at the edge of the controlled divergence regime, there exists a well-defined infinite width limit where features continue to evolve in all the hidden layers. In experiments across optimizers, architectures, and data modalities, we validate that neural networks operate in this controlled divergence regime under CE loss but not under MSE loss. Our empirical evidence suggests that width-scaling considerations are surprisingly useful for predicting empirically maximal stable learning rate exponents which provide useful guidance on optimal learning rate exponents. Finally, our analysis clarifies the effectiveness and limitations of recently proposed layerwise learning rate scaling for standard initialization.

At high energies, the dynamics of a plasma with charged fermions can be described in terms of chiral magnetohydrodynamics. Using direct numerical simulations, we demonstrate that chiral magnetic waves (CMWs) can produce a chiral asymmetry μ_5 = μ_L - μ_R from a spatially fluctuating (inhomogeneous) chemical potential μ= μ_L + μ_R, where μ_L and μ_R are the chemical potentials of left- and right-handed electrically charged fermions, respectively. If the frequency of the CMW is less than or comparable to the characteristic growth rate of the chiral dynamo instability, the magnetic field can be amplified on small spatial scales. The growth rate of this small-scale chiral dynamo instability is determined by the spatial maximum value of μ_5 fluctuations. Therefore, the magnetic field amplification occurs during periods when μ_5 reaches temporal maxima during the CMW. If the small-scale chiral dynamo instability leads to a magnetic field strength that exceeds a critical value, which depends on the resistivity and the initial value of μ, magnetically dominated turbulence is produced. Turbulence gives rise to a large-scale dynamo instability, which we find to be caused by the magnetic alpha effect. Our results have consequences for the dynamics of certain high-energy plasmas, such as the early Universe.

Visual Language Models (VLMs) have achieved remarkable progress, yet their reliability under small, meaning-preserving input changes remains poorly understood. We present the first large-scale, systematic study of VLM robustness to benign visual and textual perturbations: pixel-level shifts, light geometric transformations, padded rescaling, paraphrasing, and multilingual rewrites that do not alter the underlying semantics of an image-question pair. Across a broad set of models and datasets, we find that modern VLMs are highly sensitive to such minor perturbations: a substantial fraction of samples change their predicted answer under at least one visual or textual modification. We characterize how this instability varies across perturbation types, question categories, and models, revealing that even state-of-the-art systems (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini 2.0 Flash) frequently fail under shifts as small as a few pixels or harmless rephrasings. We further show that sample-level stability serves as a strong indicator of correctness: stable samples are consistently far more likely to be answered correctly. Leveraging this, we demonstrate that the stability patterns of small, accessible open-source models can be used to predict the correctness of much larger closed-source models with high precision. Our findings expose a fundamental fragility in current VLMs and highlight the need for robustness evaluations that go beyond adversarial perturbations, focusing instead on invariances that models should reliably uphold.

This work examines the challenges of training neural networks using vector quantization using straight-through estimation. We find that a primary cause of training instability is the discrepancy between the model embedding and the code-vector distribution. We identify the factors that contribute to this issue, including the codebook gradient sparsity and the asymmetric nature of the commitment loss, which leads to misaligned code-vector assignments. We propose to address this issue via affine re-parameterization of the code vectors. Additionally, we introduce an alternating optimization to reduce the gradient error introduced by the straight-through estimation. Moreover, we propose an improvement to the commitment loss to ensure better alignment between the codebook representation and the model embedding. These optimization methods improve the mathematical approximation of the straight-through estimation and, ultimately, the model performance. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods on several common model architectures, such as AlexNet, ResNet, and ViT, across various tasks, including image classification and generative modeling.

Vector-quantized networks (VQNs) have exhibited remarkable performance across various tasks, yet they are prone to training instability, which complicates the training process due to the necessity for techniques such as subtle initialization and model distillation. In this study, we identify the local minima issue as the primary cause of this instability. To address this, we integrate an optimal transport method in place of the nearest neighbor search to achieve a more globally informed assignment. We introduce OptVQ, a novel vector quantization method that employs the Sinkhorn algorithm to optimize the optimal transport problem, thereby enhancing the stability and efficiency of the training process. To mitigate the influence of diverse data distributions on the Sinkhorn algorithm, we implement a straightforward yet effective normalization strategy. Our comprehensive experiments on image reconstruction tasks demonstrate that OptVQ achieves 100% codebook utilization and surpasses current state-of-the-art VQNs in reconstruction quality.

Understanding the gradient variance of black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a crucial step for establishing its convergence and developing algorithmic improvements. However, existing studies have yet to show that the gradient variance of BBVI satisfies the conditions used to study the convergence of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the workhorse of BBVI. In this work, we show that BBVI satisfies a matching bound corresponding to the ABC condition used in the SGD literature when applied to smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods. Our results generalize to nonlinear covariance parameterizations widely used in the practice of BBVI. Furthermore, we show that the variance of the mean-field parameterization has provably superior dimensional dependence.

In this work, we aim to reconcile several apparently contradictory observations in market microstructure: is the famous "square-root law" of metaorder impact, which decays with time, compatible with the random-walk nature of prices and the linear impact of order imbalances? Can one entirely explain the volatility of prices as resulting from the flow of uninformed metaorders that mechanically impact them? We introduce a new theoretical framework to describe metaorders with different signs, sizes and durations, which all impact prices as a square-root of volume but with a subsequent time decay. We show that, as in the original propagator model, price diffusion is ensured by the long memory of cross-correlations between metaorders. In order to account for the effect of strongly fluctuating volumes q of individual trades, we further introduce two q-dependent exponents, which allow us to describe how the moments of generalized volume imbalance and the correlation between price changes and generalized order flow imbalance scale with T. We predict in particular that the corresponding power-laws depend in a non-monotonic fashion on a parameter a, which allows one to put the same weight on all child orders or to overweight large ones, a behaviour that is clearly borne out by empirical data. We also predict that the correlation between price changes and volume imbalances should display a maximum as a function of a, which again matches observations. Such noteworthy agreement between theory and data suggests that our framework correctly captures the basic mechanism at the heart of price formation, namely the average impact of metaorders. We argue that our results support the "Order-Driven" theory of excess volatility, and are at odds with the idea that a "Fundamental" component accounts for a large share of the volatility of financial markets.

The study conducted by Shumailov et al. (2024) demonstrates that repeatedly training a generative model on synthetic data leads to model collapse. This finding has generated considerable interest and debate, particularly given that current models have nearly exhausted the available data. In this work, we investigate the effects of fitting a distribution (through Kernel Density Estimation, or KDE) or a model to the data, followed by repeated sampling from it. Our objective is to develop a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon observed by Shumailov et al. (2024). Our results indicate that the outcomes reported are a statistical phenomenon and may be unavoidable.

Generating realistic time series data is important for many engineering and scientific applications. Existing work tackles this problem using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are often unstable during training, and they can suffer from mode collapse. While variational autoencoders (VAEs) are known to be more robust to these issues, they are (surprisingly) less often considered for time series generation. In this work, we introduce Koopman VAE (KVAE), a new generative framework that is based on a novel design for the model prior, and that can be optimized for either regular and irregular training data. Inspired by Koopman theory, we represent the latent conditional prior dynamics using a linear map. Our approach enhances generative modeling with two desired features: (i) incorporating domain knowledge can be achieved by leverageing spectral tools that prescribe constraints on the eigenvalues of the linear map; and (ii) studying the qualitative behavior and stablity of the system can be performed using tools from dynamical systems theory. Our results show that KVAE outperforms state-of-the-art GAN and VAE methods across several challenging synthetic and real-world time series generation benchmarks. Whether trained on regular or irregular data, KVAE generates time series that improve both discriminative and predictive metrics. We also present visual evidence suggesting that KVAE learns probability density functions that better approximate empirical ground truth distributions.

Large Language Model (LLM) Red-Teaming, which proactively identifies vulnerabilities of LLMs, is an essential process for ensuring safety. Finding effective and diverse attacks in red-teaming is important, but achieving both is challenging. Generative Flow Networks (GFNs) that perform distribution matching are a promising methods, but they are notorious for training instability and mode collapse. In particular, unstable rewards in red-teaming accelerate mode collapse. We propose Stable-GFN (S-GFN), which eliminates partition function Z estimation in GFN and reduces training instability. S-GFN avoids Z-estimation through pairwise comparisons and employs a robust masking methodology against noisy rewards. Additionally, we propose a fluency stabilizer to prevent the model from getting stuck in local optima that produce gibberish. S-GFN provides more stable training while maintaining the optimal policy of GFN. We demonstrate the overwhelming attack performance and diversity of S-GFN across various settings.

Electroencephalography (EEG) is a cornerstone of brain-computer interfaces and clinical neuroscience, yet deep learning models are typically trained and evaluated under a single, unreported preprocessing pipeline. We formalize preprocessing choices as a counterfactual intervention space and show that EEG predictions are surprisingly unstable under this space: across six datasets spanning four paradigms, up to 42% of trial-level predictions flip when only the preprocessing changes, a variability that standard uncertainty methods do not explicitly quantify because they condition on a fixed preprocessing pipeline. We provide three tools to make this instability measurable, decomposable, and reducible. First, a Walsh-Hadamard decomposition of the 2^7 pipeline space reveals that sensitivity is near-additive in practice under the binary intervention design, enabling efficient step-by-step optimization. Second, we introduce Preprocessing Uncertainty (PU), a per-trial diagnostic that captures a dimension of instability complementary to model-based confidence. Third, we study Normalized Adaptive PGI (NA-PGI), a graph-structured regularizer that exploits the compositional structure of preprocessing interventions as one mitigation strategy with clear scope conditions.

Large language models trained on natural language exhibit pronounced anisotropy: a small number of directions concentrate disproportionate energy, while the remaining dimensions form a broad semantic tail. In low-bit training regimes, this geometry becomes numerically unstable. Because blockwise quantization scales are determined by extreme elementwise magnitudes, dominant directions stretch the dynamic range, compressing long-tail semantic variation into narrow numerical bins. We show that this instability is primarily driven by a coherent rank-one mean bias, which constitutes the dominant component of spectral anisotropy in LLM representations. This mean component emerges systematically across layers and training stages and accounts for the majority of extreme activation magnitudes, making it the principal driver of dynamic-range inflation under low precision. Crucially, because the dominant instability is rank-one, it can be eliminated through a simple source-level mean-subtraction operation. This bias-centric conditioning recovers most of the stability benefits of SVD-based spectral methods while requiring only reduction operations and standard quantization kernels. Empirical results on FP4 (W4A4G4) training show that mean removal substantially narrows the loss gap to BF16 and restores downstream performance, providing a hardware-efficient path to stable low-bit LLM training.

In recent years, diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for generating ensemble members in meteorology. In this work, we demonstrate that a Denoising Diffusion Implicit Model (DDIM) can effectively control ensemble variance by varying the number of diffusion steps. Introducing a theoretical framework, we relate diffusion steps to the variance expressed by the reverse diffusion process. Focusing on reanalysis downscaling, we propose an ensemble diffusion model for the full ERA5-to-CERRA domain, generating variance-calibrated ensemble members for wind speed at full spatial and temporal resolution. Our method aligns global mean variance with a reference ensemble dataset and ensures spatial variance is distributed in accordance with observed meteorological variability. Additionally, we address the lack of ensemble information in the CARRA dataset, showcasing the utility of our approach for efficient, high-resolution ensemble generation.

Existing evaluation methods largely rely on clean, static benchmarks, which can overestimate true model performance by failing to capture the noise and variability inherent in real-world user inputs. This is especially true for language models, which can face human-generated text queries containing mistakes, typos, or alternative ways of phrasing the same question. In this work, we introduce a theoretical framework for quantifying model sensitivity to prompt variants, or brittleness, that can enable us to disentangle data-induced difficulty from prompt-related variability. Using this framework, we design a novel evaluation pipeline, Brittlebench, to holistically evaluate the sensitivity of frontier models. We apply semantics-preserving perturbations to a suite of popular benchmarks, and observe model performance to degrade as much as 12%. However, these perturbations do not affect all models equally: even a single perturbation alters the relative ranking of models in 63% of cases, impacting conclusions about comparative model performance. Decomposing the total variance of both state-of-the-art open-weight and commercial models, we find that semantics-preserving input perturbations can account for up to half of the performance variance for a given model. Brittlebench highlights the need for more robust evaluations and models, and allows us to systematically understand model brittleness.

This paper investigates an important problem of an appropriate variance-covariance matrix estimation in the Modern Portfolio Theory. We propose a novel framework for variancecovariance matrix estimation for purposes of the portfolio optimization, which is based on deep learning models. We employ the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN) along with two probabilistic deep learning models: DeepVAR and GPVAR to the task of one-day ahead multivariate forecasting. We then use these forecasts to optimize portfolios of stocks and cryptocurrencies. Our analysis presents results across different combinations of observation windows and rebalancing periods to compare performances of classical and deep learning variance-covariance estimation methods. The conclusions of the study are that although the strategies (portfolios) performance differed significantly between different combinations of parameters, generally the best results in terms of the information ratio and annualized returns are obtained using the LSTM-RNN models. Moreover, longer observation windows translate into better performance of the deep learning models indicating that these methods require longer windows to be able to efficiently capture the long-term dependencies of the variance-covariance matrix structure. Strategies with less frequent rebalancing typically perform better than these with the shortest rebalancing windows across all considered methods.

Differentiable programming techniques are widely used in the community and are responsible for the machine learning renaissance of the past several decades. While these methods are powerful, they have limits. In this short report, we discuss a common chaos based failure mode which appears in a variety of differentiable circumstances, ranging from recurrent neural networks and numerical physics simulation to training learned optimizers. We trace this failure to the spectrum of the Jacobian of the system under study, and provide criteria for when a practitioner might expect this failure to spoil their differentiation based optimization algorithms.

Federated learning and gossip learning are emerging methodologies designed to mitigate data privacy concerns by retaining training data on client devices and exclusively sharing locally-trained machine learning (ML) models with others. The primary distinction between the two lies in their approach to model aggregation: federated learning employs a centralized parameter server, whereas gossip learning adopts a fully decentralized mechanism, enabling direct model exchanges among nodes. This decentralized nature often positions gossip learning as less efficient compared to federated learning. Both methodologies involve a critical step: computing a representation of received ML models and integrating this representation into the existing model. Conventionally, this representation is derived by averaging the received models, exemplified by the FedAVG algorithm. Our findings suggest that this averaging approach inherently introduces a potential delay in model convergence. We identify the underlying cause and refer to it as the "vanishing variance" problem, where averaging across uncorrelated ML models undermines the optimal variance established by the Xavier weight initialization. Unlike federated learning where the central server ensures model correlation, and unlike traditional gossip learning which circumvents this problem through model partitioning and sampling, our research introduces a variance-corrected model averaging algorithm. This novel algorithm preserves the optimal variance needed during model averaging, irrespective of network topology or non-IID data distributions. Our extensive simulation results demonstrate that our approach enables gossip learning to achieve convergence efficiency comparable to that of federated learning.

The population loss of trained deep neural networks often follows precise power-law scaling relations with either the size of the training dataset or the number of parameters in the network. We propose a theory that explains the origins of and connects these scaling laws. We identify variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behavior for both dataset and model size, for a total of four scaling regimes. The variance-limited scaling follows simply from the existence of a well-behaved infinite data or infinite width limit, while the resolution-limited regime can be explained by positing that models are effectively resolving a smooth data manifold. In the large width limit, this can be equivalently obtained from the spectrum of certain kernels, and we present evidence that large width and large dataset resolution-limited scaling exponents are related by a duality. We exhibit all four scaling regimes in the controlled setting of large random feature and pretrained models and test the predictions empirically on a range of standard architectures and datasets. We also observe several empirical relationships between datasets and scaling exponents under modifications of task and architecture aspect ratio. Our work provides a taxonomy for classifying different scaling regimes, underscores that there can be different mechanisms driving improvements in loss, and lends insight into the microscopic origins of and relationships between scaling exponents.

Traditional fixed-depth architectures scale quality by increasing training FLOPs, typically through increased parameterization, at the expense of a higher memory footprint, or data. A potential alternative is looped architectures, which instead increase FLOPs by sending activations through a block of layers in a loop. While promising, existing recipes for training looped architectures can be unstable, suffering from residual explosion and loss spikes. We address these challenges by recasting looping as a nonlinear time-variant dynamical system over the residual stream. Via a linear approximation to this system, we find that instability occurs in existing looped architectures as a result of large spectral norms in their injection parameters. To address these instability issues, we propose Parcae, a novel stable, looped architecture that constrains the spectral norm of the injection parameters via discretization of a negative diagonal parameterization. As a result, Parcae achieves up to 6.3% lower validation perplexity over prior large-scale looped models. Using our stable looped architecture, we investigate the scaling properties of looping as a medium to improve quality by increasing FLOPs in training and test-time. For training, we derive predictable power laws to scale FLOPs while keeping parameter count fixed. Our initial scaling laws suggest that looping and data should be increased in tandem, given a fixed FLOP budget. At test-time, we find that Parcae can use looping to scale compute, following a predictable, saturating exponential decay. When scaled up to 1.3B parameters, we find that Parcae improves CORE and Core-Extended quality by 2.99 and 1.18 points when compared to strong Transformer baselines under a fixed parameter and data budget, achieving a relative quality of up to 87.5% a Transformer twice the size.

RL training of multi-turn LLM agents is inherently unstable, and reasoning quality directly determines task performance. Entropy is widely used to track reasoning stability. However, entropy only measures diversity within the same input, and cannot tell whether reasoning actually responds to different inputs. In RAGEN-2, we find that even with stable entropy, models can rely on fixed templates that look diverse but are input-agnostic. We call this template collapse, a failure mode invisible to entropy and all existing metrics. To diagnose this failure, we decompose reasoning quality into within-input diversity (Entropy) and cross-input distinguishability (Mutual Information, MI), and introduce a family of mutual information proxies for online diagnosis. Across diverse tasks, mutual information correlates with final performance much more strongly than entropy, making it a more reliable proxy for reasoning quality. We further explain template collapse with a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) mechanism. Low reward variance weakens task gradients, letting regularization terms dominate and erase cross-input reasoning differences. To address this, we propose SNR-Aware Filtering to select high-signal prompts per iteration using reward variance as a lightweight proxy. Across planning, math reasoning, web navigation, and code execution, the method consistently improves both input dependence and task performance.

In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled study on the effect of random seeds on the behaviour of attention, gradient-based and surrogate model based (LIME) interpretations. Our analysis suggests that random seeds can adversely affect the consistency of models resulting in counterfactual interpretations. We propose a technique called Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (ASWA)and an extension called Norm-filtered Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (NASWA) which improves the stability of models over random seeds. With our ASWA and NASWA based optimization, we are able to improve the robustness of the original model, on average reducing the standard deviation of the model's performance by 72%.

Momentum is known to accelerate the convergence of gradient descent in strongly convex settings without stochastic gradient noise. In stochastic optimization, such as training neural networks, folklore suggests that momentum may help deep learning optimization by reducing the variance of the stochastic gradient update, but previous theoretical analyses do not find momentum to offer any provable acceleration. Theoretical results in this paper clarify the role of momentum in stochastic settings where the learning rate is small and gradient noise is the dominant source of instability, suggesting that SGD with and without momentum behave similarly in the short and long time horizons. Experiments show that momentum indeed has limited benefits for both optimization and generalization in practical training regimes where the optimal learning rate is not very large, including small- to medium-batch training from scratch on ImageNet and fine-tuning language models on downstream tasks.

We bound the excess risk of interpolating deep linear networks trained using gradient flow. In a setting previously used to establish risk bounds for the minimum ell_2-norm interpolant, we show that randomly initialized deep linear networks can closely approximate or even match known bounds for the minimum ell_2-norm interpolant. Our analysis also reveals that interpolating deep linear models have exactly the same conditional variance as the minimum ell_2-norm solution. Since the noise affects the excess risk only through the conditional variance, this implies that depth does not improve the algorithm's ability to "hide the noise". Our simulations verify that aspects of our bounds reflect typical behavior for simple data distributions. We also find that similar phenomena are seen in simulations with ReLU networks, although the situation there is more nuanced.

Prompt optimization improves language models without updating their weights by searching for a better system prompt, but its effectiveness varies widely across tasks. We study what makes a task amenable to prompt optimization. We show that the reward variance across different system prompts can be decomposed into two components: variance among responses, which captures generation stochasticity, and variance among system prompts, which captures differences in system prompt quality. Prompt optimization succeeds when variance among system prompts is sufficiently large, but fails when variance among responses dominates the variance of the system prompts. Surprisingly, we further show that scaling to more user prompts can hurt optimization by reducing variance among system prompts, especially on heterogeneous datasets where different user prompts favor different system prompts. Motivated by this insight, we propose p1, a simple user prompt filtering method that selects a small subset of user prompts with high variance across candidate system prompts. This subset of user prompts allows one to distinguish a good system prompt from a bad one, making system optimization easier. Experiments on reasoning benchmarks show that p1 substantially improves prompt optimization over training on the full dataset and outperforms strong baselines such as GEPA. Notably, training on only two prompts from AIME 24 yields a system prompt that generalizes well to other reasoning benchmarks.

Stochasticity in language model fine-tuning, often caused by the small batch sizes typically used in this regime, can destabilize training by introducing large oscillations in generation quality. A popular approach to mitigating this instability is to take an Exponential moving average (EMA) of weights throughout training. While EMA reduces stochasticity, thereby smoothing training, the introduction of bias from old iterates often creates a lag in optimization relative to vanilla training. In this work, we propose the Bias-Corrected Exponential Moving Average (BEMA), a simple and practical augmentation of EMA that retains variance-reduction benefits while eliminating bias. BEMA is motivated by a simple theoretical model wherein we demonstrate provable acceleration of BEMA over both a standard EMA and vanilla training. Through an extensive suite of experiments on Language Models, we show that BEMA leads to significantly improved convergence rates and final performance over both EMA and vanilla training in a variety of standard LM benchmarks, making BEMA a practical and theoretically motivated intervention for more stable and efficient fine-tuning.

As the Chinese stock market continues to evolve and its market structure grows increasingly complex, traditional quantitative trading methods are facing escalating challenges. Particularly, due to policy uncertainty and the frequent market fluctuations triggered by sudden economic events, existing models often struggle to accurately predict market dynamics. To address these challenges, this paper introduces Stockformer, a price-volume factor stock selection model that integrates wavelet transformation and a multitask self-attention network, aimed at enhancing responsiveness and predictive accuracy regarding market instabilities. Through discrete wavelet transform, Stockformer decomposes stock returns into high and low frequencies, meticulously capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations, including abrupt events. Moreover, the model incorporates a Dual-Frequency Spatiotemporal Encoder and graph embedding techniques to effectively capture complex temporal and spatial relationships among stocks. Employing a multitask learning strategy, it simultaneously predicts stock returns and directional trends. Experimental results show that Stockformer outperforms existing advanced methods on multiple real stock market datasets. In strategy backtesting, Stockformer consistently demonstrates exceptional stability and reliability across market conditions-whether rising, falling, or fluctuating-particularly maintaining high performance during downturns or volatile periods, indicating a high adaptability to market fluctuations. To foster innovation and collaboration in the financial analysis sector, the Stockformer model's code has been open-sourced and is available on the GitHub repository: https://github.com/Eric991005/Multitask-Stockformer.

We study contextual combinatorial bandits with probabilistically triggered arms (C^2MAB-T) under a variety of smoothness conditions that capture a wide range of applications, such as contextual cascading bandits and contextual influence maximization bandits. Under the triggering probability modulated (TPM) condition, we devise the C^2-UCB-T algorithm and propose a novel analysis that achieves an O(dKT) regret bound, removing a potentially exponentially large factor O(1/p_{min}), where d is the dimension of contexts, p_{min} is the minimum positive probability that any arm can be triggered, and batch-size K is the maximum number of arms that can be triggered per round. Under the variance modulated (VM) or triggering probability and variance modulated (TPVM) conditions, we propose a new variance-adaptive algorithm VAC^2-UCB and derive a regret bound O(dT), which is independent of the batch-size K. As a valuable by-product, our analysis technique and variance-adaptive algorithm can be applied to the CMAB-T and C^2MAB setting, improving existing results there as well. We also include experiments that demonstrate the improved performance of our algorithms compared with benchmark algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

This paper is a study of fine-tuning of BERT contextual representations, with focus on commonly observed instabilities in few-sample scenarios. We identify several factors that cause this instability: the common use of a non-standard optimization method with biased gradient estimation; the limited applicability of significant parts of the BERT network for down-stream tasks; and the prevalent practice of using a pre-determined, and small number of training iterations. We empirically test the impact of these factors, and identify alternative practices that resolve the commonly observed instability of the process. In light of these observations, we re-visit recently proposed methods to improve few-sample fine-tuning with BERT and re-evaluate their effectiveness. Generally, we observe the impact of these methods diminishes significantly with our modified process.

In diffusion models, UNet is the most popular network backbone, since its long skip connects (LSCs) to connect distant network blocks can aggregate long-distant information and alleviate vanishing gradient. Unfortunately, UNet often suffers from unstable training in diffusion models which can be alleviated by scaling its LSC coefficients smaller. However, theoretical understandings of the instability of UNet in diffusion models and also the performance improvement of LSC scaling remain absent yet. To solve this issue, we theoretically show that the coefficients of LSCs in UNet have big effects on the stableness of the forward and backward propagation and robustness of UNet. Specifically, the hidden feature and gradient of UNet at any layer can oscillate and their oscillation ranges are actually large which explains the instability of UNet training. Moreover, UNet is also provably sensitive to perturbed input, and predicts an output distant from the desired output, yielding oscillatory loss and thus oscillatory gradient. Besides, we also observe the theoretical benefits of the LSC coefficient scaling of UNet in the stableness of hidden features and gradient and also robustness. Finally, inspired by our theory, we propose an effective coefficient scaling framework ScaleLong that scales the coefficients of LSC in UNet and better improves the training stability of UNet. Experimental results on four famous datasets show that our methods are superior to stabilize training and yield about 1.5x training acceleration on different diffusion models with UNet or UViT backbones. Code: https://github.com/sail-sg/ScaleLong

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by maximizing the logarithm of the likelihood function under the observed data. In this work, we examine this approach and identify potential hazards associated with the use of log-likelihood in conjunction with gradient-based optimizers. First, we present a synthetic example illustrating how this approach can lead to very poor but stable parameter estimates. Second, we identify the culprit to be the log-likelihood loss, along with certain conditions that exacerbate the issue. Third, we present an alternative formulation, termed β-NLL, in which each data point's contribution to the loss is weighted by the β-exponentiated variance estimate. We show that using an appropriate β largely mitigates the issue in our illustrative example. Fourth, we evaluate this approach on a range of domains and tasks and show that it achieves considerable improvements and performs more robustly concerning hyperparameters, both in predictive RMSE and log-likelihood criteria.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

Training stability remains a critical bottleneck for Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), often manifesting as a trade-off between reasoning plasticity and general capability retention. We identify a root cause as the geometric conflict between plasticity and stability gradients, which leads to destructive interference. Crucially, we argue that deterministic projection methods are suboptimal for GRPO as they overlook the intrinsic stochasticity of group-based gradient estimates. To address this, we propose Probabilistic Conflict Resolution (PCR), a Bayesian framework that models gradients as random variables. PCR dynamically arbitrates conflicts via an uncertainty-aware ``soft projection'' mechanism, optimizing the signal-to-noise ratio. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PCR significantly smooths the training trajectory and achieves superior performance in various reasoning tasks.

Tool-based Agentic Reinforcement Learning (TARL) has emerged as a promising paradigm for training search agents to interact with external tools for a multi-turn information-seeking process autonomously. However, we identify a critical training instability that leads to catastrophic model collapse: Importance Sampling Distribution Drift(ISDD). In Group Relative Policy Optimization(GRPO), a widely adopted TARL algorithm, ISDD manifests as a precipitous decline in the importance sampling ratios, which nullifies gradient updates and triggers irreversible training failure. To address this, we propose Search Agent Policy Optimization (SAPO), which stabilizes training via a conditional token-level KL constraint. Unlike hard clipping, which ignores distributional divergence, SAPO selectively penalizes the KL divergence between the current and old policies. Crucially, this penalty is applied only to positive tokens with low probabilities where the policy has shifted excessively, thereby preventing distribution drift while preserving gradient flow. Remarkably, SAPO requires only one-line code modification to standard GRPO, ensuring immediate deployability. Extensive experiments across seven QA benchmarks demonstrate that SAPO achieves +10.6\% absolute improvement (+31.5\% relative) over Search-R1, yielding consistent gains across varying model scales (1.5B, 14B) and families (Qwen, LLaMA).

In this article, we study the consistency of the template estimation with the Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces. The Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces is often used when the observations are deformed or transformed by a group action. We show that in most cases this estimator is actually inconsistent. We exhibit a sufficient condition for this inconsistency, which amounts to the folding of the distribution of the noisy template when it is projected to the quotient space. This condition appears to be fulfilled as soon as the support of the noise is large enough. To quantify this inconsistency we provide lower and upper bounds of the bias as a function of the variability (the noise level). This shows that the consistency bias cannot be neglected when the variability increases.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

Recent innovations on hardware (e.g. Nvidia A100) have motivated learning N:M structured sparsity masks from scratch for fast model inference. However, state-of-the-art learning recipes in this regime (e.g. SR-STE) are proposed for non-adaptive optimizers like momentum SGD, while incurring non-trivial accuracy drop for Adam-trained models like attention-based LLMs. In this paper, we first demonstrate such gap origins from poorly estimated second moment (i.e. variance) in Adam states given by the masked weights. We conjecture that learning N:M masks with Adam should take the critical regime of variance estimation into account. In light of this, we propose STEP, an Adam-aware recipe that learns N:M masks with two phases: first, STEP calculates a reliable variance estimate (precondition phase) and subsequently, the variance remains fixed and is used as a precondition to learn N:M masks (mask-learning phase). STEP automatically identifies the switching point of two phases by dynamically sampling variance changes over the training trajectory and testing the sample concentration. Empirically, we evaluate STEP and other baselines such as ASP and SR-STE on multiple tasks including CIFAR classification, machine translation and LLM fine-tuning (BERT-Base, GPT-2). We show STEP mitigates the accuracy drop of baseline recipes and is robust to aggressive structured sparsity ratios.

In this paper, we consider the stability of the Lamb dipole solution of the two-dimensional Euler equations in R^{2} and question under which initial disturbance the Lamb dipole is stable, motivated by experimental work on the formation of a large vortex dipole in two-dimensional turbulence. We assume (O) odd symmetry for the x_2-variable and (N) non-negativity in the upper half plane for the initial disturbance of vorticity, and establish the stability theorem of the Lamb dipole without assuming (F) finite mass condition. The proof is based on a new variational characterization of the Lamb dipole using an improved energy inequality.

Visual generation is dominated by three paradigms: AutoRegressive (AR), diffusion, and Visual AutoRegressive (VAR) models. Unlike AR and diffusion, VARs operate on heterogeneous input structures across their generation steps, which creates severe asynchronous policy conflicts. This issue becomes particularly acute in reinforcement learning (RL) scenarios, leading to unstable training and suboptimal alignment. To resolve this, we propose a novel framework to enhance Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) by explicitly managing these conflicts. Our method integrates three synergistic components: 1) a stabilizing intermediate reward to guide early-stage generation; 2) a dynamic time-step reweighting scheme for precise credit assignment; and 3) a novel mask propagation algorithm, derived from principles of Reward Feedback Learning (ReFL), designed to isolate optimization effects both spatially and temporally. Our approach demonstrates significant improvements in sample quality and objective alignment over the vanilla GRPO baseline, enabling robust and effective optimization for VAR models.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) stands as a cornerstone optimization algorithm with proven real-world empirical successes but relatively limited theoretical understanding. Recent research has illuminated a key factor contributing to its practical efficacy: the implicit regularization it instigates. Several studies have investigated the linear stability property of SGD in the vicinity of a stationary point as a predictive proxy for sharpness and generalization error in overparameterized neural networks (Wu et al., 2022; Jastrzebski et al., 2019; Cohen et al., 2021). In this paper, we delve deeper into the relationship between linear stability and sharpness. More specifically, we meticulously delineate the necessary and sufficient conditions for linear stability, contingent on hyperparameters of SGD and the sharpness at the optimum. Towards this end, we introduce a novel coherence measure of the loss Hessian that encapsulates pertinent geometric properties of the loss function that are relevant to the linear stability of SGD. It enables us to provide a simplified sufficient condition for identifying linear instability at an optimum. Notably, compared to previous works, our analysis relies on significantly milder assumptions and is applicable for a broader class of loss functions than known before, encompassing not only mean-squared error but also cross-entropy loss.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators that do not cause shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

On-policy distillation (OPD) has shown strong potential for transferring reasoning ability from frontier or domain-specific models to smaller students. While effective on static single-turn tasks, its behavior in multi-turn agent settings remains underexplored. In this work, we identify a key limitation of vanilla OPD in such settings, which we term Trajectory-Level KL Instability. Specifically, we observe that KL divergence increases together with a drop in success rate, and even after convergence, the KL remains high, leading to unstable training. This instability arises from inter-turn error compounding: as errors accumulate, the student is driven beyond the teacher's effective support, rendering the supervision signal unreliable. To address this, we propose TCOD (Temporal Curriculum On-Policy Distillation), a simple yet effective framework that controls the trajectory depth exposed to the student and progressively expands it from short to long with a curriculum schedule.Experimental results across four student-teacher pairs on three multi-turn agent benchmarks (ALFWorld, WebShop, ScienceWorld) show that TCOD mitigates KL escalation and enhances KL stability throughout training, improving agent performance by up to 18 points over vanilla OPD. Further evaluations show that TCOD can even surpass the teacher's performance and generalize to tasks on which the teacher fails.

In theoretical neuroscience, recent work leverages deep learning tools to explore how some network attributes critically influence its learning dynamics. Notably, initial weight distributions with small (resp. large) variance may yield a rich (resp. lazy) regime, where significant (resp. minor) changes to network states and representation are observed over the course of learning. However, in biology, neural circuit connectivity could exhibit a low-rank structure and therefore differs markedly from the random initializations generally used for these studies. As such, here we investigate how the structure of the initial weights -- in particular their effective rank -- influences the network learning regime. Through both empirical and theoretical analyses, we discover that high-rank initializations typically yield smaller network changes indicative of lazier learning, a finding we also confirm with experimentally-driven initial connectivity in recurrent neural networks. Conversely, low-rank initialization biases learning towards richer learning. Importantly, however, as an exception to this rule, we find lazier learning can still occur with a low-rank initialization that aligns with task and data statistics. Our research highlights the pivotal role of initial weight structures in shaping learning regimes, with implications for metabolic costs of plasticity and risks of catastrophic forgetting.