Daily Papers

Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) are among the most widely and successfully applied optimizers for multi-objective problems. However, to store many optimal trade-offs (the Pareto optima) at once, MOEAs are typically run with a large, static population of solution candidates, which can slow down the algorithm. We propose the dynamic NSGA-II (dNSGA-II), which is based on the popular NSGA-II and features a non-static population size. The dNSGA-II starts with a small initial population size of four and doubles it after a user-specified number tau of function evaluations, up to a maximum size of mu. Via a mathematical runtime analysis, we prove that the dNSGA-II with parameters mu geq 4(n + 1) and tau geq 256{50} e n computes the full Pareto front of the OneMinMax benchmark of size n in O(log(mu) tau + mu log(n)) function evaluations, both in expectation and with high probability. For an optimal choice of mu and tau, the resulting O(n log(n)) runtime improves the optimal expected runtime of the classic NSGA-II by a factor of Theta(n). In addition, we show that the parameter tau can be removed when utilizing concurrent runs of the dNSGA-II. This approach leads to a mild slow-down by a factor of O(log(n)) compared to an optimal choice of tau for the dNSGA-II, which is still a speed-up of Theta(n / log(n)) over the classic NSGA-II.

The emergence of complex life on Earth is often attributed to the arms race that ensued from a huge number of organisms all competing for finite resources. We present an artificial intelligence research environment, inspired by the human game genre of MMORPGs (Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Games, a.k.a. MMOs), that aims to simulate this setting in microcosm. As with MMORPGs and the real world alike, our environment is persistent and supports a large and variable number of agents. Our environment is well suited to the study of large-scale multiagent interaction: it requires that agents learn robust combat and navigation policies in the presence of large populations attempting to do the same. Baseline experiments reveal that population size magnifies and incentivizes the development of skillful behaviors and results in agents that outcompete agents trained in smaller populations. We further show that the policies of agents with unshared weights naturally diverge to fill different niches in order to avoid competition.

Current analysis of additive manufactured niobium-based copper alloys relies on hand annotation due to varying contrast, noise, and image artifacts present in micrographs, slowing iteration speed in alloy development. We present a filtering and segmentation algorithm for detecting precipitates in FIB cross-section micrographs, optimized using linear genetic programming (LGP), which accounts for the various artifacts. To this end, the optimization environment uses a domain-specific language for image processing to iterate on solutions. Programs in this language are a list of image-filtering blocks with tunable parameters that sequentially process an input image, allowing for reliable generation and mutation by a genetic algorithm. Our environment produces optimized human-interpretable MATLAB code representing an image filtering pipeline. Under ideal conditions--a population size of 60 and a maximum program length of 5 blocks--our system was able to find a near-human accuracy solution with an average evaluation error of 1.8% when comparing segmentations pixel-by-pixel to a human baseline using an XOR error evaluation. Our automation work enabled faster iteration cycles and furthered exploration of the material composition and processing space: our optimized pipeline algorithm processes a 3.6 megapixel image in about 2 seconds on average. This ultimately enables convergence on strong, low-activation, precipitation hardened copper alloys for additive manufactured fusion reactor parts.

We show that Fréchet Distance (FD), long considered impractical as a training objective, can in fact be effectively optimized in the representation space. Our idea is simple: decouple the population size for FD estimation (e.g., 50k) from the batch size for gradient computation (e.g., 1024). We term this approach FD-loss. Optimizing FD-loss reveals several surprising findings. First, post-training a base generator with FD-loss in different representation spaces consistently improves visual quality. Under the Inception feature space, a one-step generator achieves0.72 FID on ImageNet 256x256. Second, the same FD-loss repurposes multi-step generators into strong one-step generators without teacher distillation, adversarial training or per-sample targets. Third, FID can misrank visual quality: modern representations can yield better samples despite worse Inception FID. This motivates FDr^k, a multi-representation metric. We hope this work will encourage further exploration of distributional distances in diverse representation spaces as both training objectives and evaluation metrics for generative models.

Early cavemen relied on gestures, vocalizations, and simple signals to coordinate, plan, avoid predators, and share resources. Today, humans collaborate using complex languages to achieve remarkable results. What drives this evolution in communication? How does language emerge, adapt, and become vital for teamwork? Understanding the origins of language remains a challenge. A leading hypothesis in linguistics and anthropology posits that language evolved to meet the ecological and social demands of early human cooperation. Language did not arise in isolation, but through shared survival goals. Inspired by this view, we investigate the emergence of language in multi-agent Foraging Games. These environments are designed to reflect the cognitive and ecological constraints believed to have influenced the evolution of communication. Agents operate in a shared grid world with only partial knowledge about other agents and the environment, and must coordinate to complete games like picking up high-value targets or executing temporally ordered actions. Using end-to-end deep reinforcement learning, agents learn both actions and communication strategies from scratch. We find that agents develop communication protocols with hallmark features of natural language: arbitrariness, interchangeability, displacement, cultural transmission, and compositionality. We quantify each property and analyze how different factors, such as population size and temporal dependencies, shape specific aspects of the emergent language. Our framework serves as a platform for studying how language can evolve from partial observability, temporal reasoning, and cooperative goals in embodied multi-agent settings. We will release all data, code, and models publicly.

We propose a novel type of Artificial Immune System (AIS): Symbiotic Artificial Immune Systems (SAIS), drawing inspiration from symbiotic relationships in biology. SAIS parallels the three key stages (i.e., mutualism, commensalism and parasitism) of population updating from the Symbiotic Organisms Search (SOS) algorithm. This parallel approach effectively addresses the challenges of large population size and enhances population diversity in AIS, which traditional AIS and SOS struggle to resolve efficiently. We conducted a series of experiments, which demonstrated that our SAIS achieved comparable performance to the state-of-the-art approach SOS and outperformed other popular AIS approaches and evolutionary algorithms across 26 benchmark problems. Furthermore, we investigated the problem of parameter selection and found that SAIS performs better in handling larger population sizes while requiring fewer generations. Finally, we believe SAIS, as a novel bio-inspired and immune-inspired algorithm, paves the way for innovation in bio-inspired computing with the symbiotic paradigm.

MATSim (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation Toolkit) is an open source large-scale agent-based transportation planning project applied to various areas like road transport, public transport, freight transport, regional evacuation, etc. BEAM (Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility) framework extends MATSim to enable powerful and scalable analysis of urban transportation systems. The agents from the BEAM simulation exhibit 'mode choice' behavior based on multinomial logit model. In our study, we consider eight mode choices viz. bike, car, walk, ride hail, driving to transit, walking to transit, ride hail to transit, and ride hail pooling. The 'alternative specific constants' for each mode choice are critical hyperparameters in a configuration file related to a particular scenario under experimentation. We use the 'Urbansim-10k' BEAM scenario (with 10,000 population size) for all our experiments. Since these hyperparameters affect the simulation in complex ways, manual calibration methods are time consuming. We present a parallel Bayesian optimization method with early stopping rule to achieve fast convergence for the given multi-in-multi-out problem to its optimal configurations. Our model is based on an open source HpBandSter package. This approach combines hierarchy of several 1D Kernel Density Estimators (KDE) with a cheap evaluator (Hyperband, a single multidimensional KDE). Our model has also incorporated extrapolation based early stopping rule. With our model, we could achieve a 25% L1 norm for a large-scale BEAM simulation in fully autonomous manner. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first of its kind applied to large-scale multi-agent transportation simulations. This work can be useful for surrogate modeling of scenarios with very large populations.

Identifying what individual neurons encode in higher-order visual cortex is an open problem. Responses resist intuitive parameterization, and the deep-network embeddings used in their place are black boxes. Here, we introduce NEURRATOR, a framework that decodes spiking activity into free-form natural-language narration of the viewed scene at single-neuron resolution. A learned encoder maps spike trains from arbitrary subsets of simultaneously-recorded neurons into the patch-embedding space of a frozen CLIP, from which a multimodal language model and sparse autoencoder generates and validates a description with no language-side training. Applied to Neuropixel recordings of mouse visual cortex during natural-movie viewing, NEURRATOR narrates from thousands of neurons, singular cortical regions, local populations, or from a molecularly-defined cell-types. We use this property to (i) quantify how decoding fidelity scales with population size and cortical region, and (ii) "neurrate", in plain language, what individual neurons and genetically-tagged inhibitory cell-types contribute to visual representation. This recasts cell identity from a classification target into a functional probe of the visual system, providing a new unit of biological insights in neural systems.

Human society needs to increase food production by an estimated 70% by 2050 to feed an expected population size that is predicted to be over 9 billion people. Currently, infectious diseases reduce the potential yield by an average of 40% with many farmers in the developing world experiencing yield losses as high as 100%. The widespread distribution of smartphones among crop growers around the world with an expected 5 billion smartphones by 2020 offers the potential of turning the smartphone into a valuable tool for diverse communities growing food. One potential application is the development of mobile disease diagnostics through machine learning and crowdsourcing. Here we announce the release of over 50,000 expertly curated images on healthy and infected leaves of crops plants through the existing online platform PlantVillage. We describe both the data and the platform. These data are the beginning of an on-going, crowdsourcing effort to enable computer vision approaches to help solve the problem of yield losses in crop plants due to infectious diseases.

General-purpose open-domain dense retrieval systems are usually trained with a large, eclectic mix of corpora and search tasks. How should these diverse corpora and tasks be sampled for training? Conventional approaches sample them uniformly, proportional to their instance population sizes, or depend on human-level expert supervision. It is well known that the training data sampling strategy can greatly impact model performance. However, how to find the optimal strategy has not been adequately studied in the context of embedding models. We propose Inf-DDS, a novel reinforcement learning driven sampling framework that adaptively reweighs training datasets guided by influence-based reward signals and is much more lightweight with respect to GPU consumption. Our technique iteratively refines the sampling policy, prioritizing datasets that maximize model performance on a target development set. We evaluate the efficacy of our sampling strategy on a wide range of text retrieval tasks, demonstrating strong improvements in retrieval performance and better adaptation compared to existing gradient-based sampling methods, while also being 1.5x to 4x cheaper in GPU compute. Our sampling strategy achieves a 5.03 absolute NDCG@10 improvement while training a multilingual bge-m3 model and an absolute NDCG@10 improvement of 0.94 while training all-MiniLM-L6-v2, even when starting from expert-assigned weights on a large pool of training datasets.

In this paper, we propose a generic optimization approach for challenging objective functions that finds applications in various statistical problems. We focus on objective functions with two parameter blocks of one amenable to analytic optimization, and another that is irregular or computationally expensive. To address this setting, we propose the Voronoi-Elitism Genetic Algorithm (VEGA), a derivative-free optimization method that embeds geometric information into genetic search. The proposed algorithm retains elite candidates and constructs Voronoi-based neighborhoods around them, whose crossover and self-adaptive mutation balance exploitation of promising solutions with exploration of under-covered regions. We study the high dimensional behavior of genetic search by analyzing distance concentration, and the effects of population size and shrinking mutation, which shows that the algorithm improves spatial coverage and yields sharper distance bounds under limited computational budgets. Simulation studies are conducted to compare VEGA with two genetic-type algorithms competitors in finite samples. A real data application on Stack Exchange activity data further illustrates its ability to identify stable structural changes, implying the algorithm is computationally flexible for high-dimensional, derivative-free optimization and applicable for various statistical problems.

We introduce Evolution Guided General Optimization via Low-rank Learning (EGGROLL), an evolution strategies (ES) algorithm designed to scale backprop-free optimization to large population sizes for modern large neural network architectures with billions of parameters. ES is a set of powerful blackbox optimisation methods that can handle non-differentiable or noisy objectives with excellent scaling potential through parallelisation. Na{ï}ve ES becomes prohibitively expensive at scale due to the computational and memory costs associated with generating matrix perturbations EinR^{mtimes n} and the batched matrix multiplications needed to compute per-member forward passes. EGGROLL overcomes these bottlenecks by generating random matrices Ain R^{mtimes r}, Bin R^{ntimes r} with rll min(m,n) to form a low-rank matrix perturbation A B^top that are used in place of the full-rank perturbation E. As the overall update is an average across a population of N workers, this still results in a high-rank update but with significant memory and computation savings, reducing the auxiliary storage from mn to r(m+n) per layer and the cost of a forward pass from O(mn) to O(r(m+n)) when compared to full-rank ES. A theoretical analysis reveals our low-rank update converges to the full-rank update at a fast Oleft(1{r}right) rate. Our experiments show that (1) EGGROLL does not compromise the performance of ES in tabula-rasa RL settings, despite being faster, (2) it is competitive with GRPO as a technique for improving LLM reasoning, and (3) EGGROLL enables stable pre-training of nonlinear recurrent language models that operate purely in integer datatypes.

Evolutionary multiobjective optimization (EMO) has made significant strides over the past two decades. However, as problem scales and complexities increase, traditional EMO algorithms face substantial performance limitations due to insufficient parallelism and scalability. While most work has focused on algorithm design to address these challenges, little attention has been given to hardware acceleration, thereby leaving a clear gap between EMO algorithms and advanced computing devices, such as GPUs. To bridge the gap, we propose to parallelize EMO algorithms on GPUs via the tensorization methodology. By employing tensorization, the data structures and operations of EMO algorithms are transformed into concise tensor representations, which seamlessly enables automatic utilization of GPU computing. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to three representative EMO algorithms: NSGA-III, MOEA/D, and HypE. To comprehensively assess our methodology, we introduce a multiobjective robot control benchmark using a GPU-accelerated physics engine. Our experiments show that the tensorized EMO algorithms achieve speedups of up to 1113x compared to their CPU-based counterparts, while maintaining solution quality and effectively scaling population sizes to hundreds of thousands. Furthermore, the tensorized EMO algorithms efficiently tackle complex multiobjective robot control tasks, producing high-quality solutions with diverse behaviors. Source codes are available at https://github.com/EMI-Group/evomo.

Recent Meta-learning for Black-Box Optimization (MetaBBO) methods harness neural networks to meta-learn configurations of traditional black-box optimizers. Despite their success, they are inevitably restricted by the limitations of predefined hand-crafted optimizers. In this paper, we present Symbol, a novel framework that promotes the automated discovery of black-box optimizers through symbolic equation learning. Specifically, we propose a Symbolic Equation Generator (SEG) that allows closed-form optimization rules to be dynamically generated for specific tasks and optimization steps. Within Symbol, we then develop three distinct strategies based on reinforcement learning, so as to meta-learn the SEG efficiently. Extensive experiments reveal that the optimizers generated by Symbol not only surpass the state-of-the-art BBO and MetaBBO baselines, but also exhibit exceptional zero-shot generalization abilities across entirely unseen tasks with different problem dimensions, population sizes, and optimization horizons. Furthermore, we conduct in-depth analyses of our Symbol framework and the optimization rules that it generates, underscoring its desirable flexibility and interpretability.

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

The orbits of planetary systems can be deformed from their initial configurations due to close encounters with larger astrophysical bodies. Typical candidates for close encounters are stars and binaries. We explore the prospect that if there is a sizeable population of primordial black holes (PBH) in our galaxy, then these may also impact the orbits of exoplanets. Specifically, in a simplified setting, we study numerically how many planetary systems might have a close encounter with a PBH, and analyze the potential changes to the orbital parameters of systems that undergo PBH flybys.

Ecological systems are dynamic and policies to manage them need to respond to that variation. However, policy adjustments will sometimes be costly, which means that fine-tuning a policy to track variability in the environment very tightly will only sometimes be worthwhile. We use a classic fisheries management question -- how to manage a stochastically varying population using annually varying quotas in order to maximize profit -- to examine how costs of policy adjustment change optimal management recommendations. Costs of policy adjustment (here changes in fishing quotas through time) could take different forms. For example, these costs may respond to the size of the change being implemented, or there could be a fixed cost any time a quota change is made. We show how different forms of policy costs have contrasting implications for optimal policies. Though it is frequently assumed that costs to adjusting policies will dampen variation in the policy, we show that certain cost structures can actually increase variation through time. We further show that failing to account for adjustment costs has a consistently worse economic impact than would assuming these costs are present when they are not.

Recent advances have enabled the discovery of a population of potentially Earth-like planets, yet their orbital eccentricity, which governs their climate and provides clues about their origin and dynamical history, is still largely unconstrained. We identify a sample of 17 transiting exoplanets around late-type stars with similar radii and irradiation to that of Earth and use the "photoeccentric effect" - which exploits transit durations - to infer their eccentricity distribution via hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Our analysis establishes that these worlds further resemble Earth in that their eccentricities are nearly circular (mean eccentricity =0.060_{-0.028}^{+0.040} and leq0.15), with the exception of one outlier of moderate eccentricity. The results hint at a subset population of dynamically warmer Earths, but this requires a larger sample to statistically confirm. The planets in our sample are thus largely subject to minimal eccentricity-induced seasonal variability and are consistent with emerging via smooth disk migration rather than violent planet-planet scattering.

Brain tumors, particularly gliomas, pose significant chall-enges due to their complex growth patterns, infiltrative nature, and the variability in brain structure across individuals, which makes accurate diagnosis and monitoring difficult. Deep learning models have been developed to accurately delineate these tumors. However, most of these models were trained on relatively homogenous high-resource datasets, limiting their robustness when deployed in underserved regions. In this study, we performed segmentation-aware offline data augmentation on the BraTS-Africa dataset to increase the data sample size and diversity to enhance generalization. We further constructed an ensemble of three distinct architectures, MedNeXt, SegMamba, and Residual-Encoder U-Net, to leverage their complementary strengths. Our best-performing model, MedNeXt, was trained on 1000 epochs and achieved the highest average lesion-wise dice and normalized surface distance scores of 0.86 and 0.81 respectively. However, the ensemble model trained for 500 epochs produced the most balanced segmentation performance across the tumour subregions. This work demonstrates that a combination of advanced augmentation and model ensembling can improve segmentation accuracy and robustness on diverse and underrepresented datasets. Code available at: https://github.com/SPARK-Academy-2025/SPARK-2025/tree/main/SPARK2025_BraTs_MODELS/SPARK_NeuroAshanti

Our ability to use deep learning approaches to decipher neural activity would likely benefit from greater scale, in terms of both model size and datasets. However, the integration of many neural recordings into one unified model is challenging, as each recording contains the activity of different neurons from different individual animals. In this paper, we introduce a training framework and architecture designed to model the population dynamics of neural activity across diverse, large-scale neural recordings. Our method first tokenizes individual spikes within the dataset to build an efficient representation of neural events that captures the fine temporal structure of neural activity. We then employ cross-attention and a PerceiverIO backbone to further construct a latent tokenization of neural population activities. Utilizing this architecture and training framework, we construct a large-scale multi-session model trained on large datasets from seven nonhuman primates, spanning over 158 different sessions of recording from over 27,373 neural units and over 100 hours of recordings. In a number of different tasks, we demonstrate that our pretrained model can be rapidly adapted to new, unseen sessions with unspecified neuron correspondence, enabling few-shot performance with minimal labels. This work presents a powerful new approach for building deep learning tools to analyze neural data and stakes out a clear path to training at scale.

Brain tumor growth is unique to each glioma patient and extends beyond what is visible in imaging scans, infiltrating surrounding brain tissue. Understanding these hidden patient-specific progressions is essential for effective therapies. Current treatment plans for brain tumors, such as radiotherapy, typically involve delineating a uniform margin around the visible tumor on pre-treatment scans to target this invisible tumor growth. This "one size fits all" approach is derived from population studies and often fails to account for the nuances of individual patient conditions. We present the GliODIL framework, which infers the full spatial distribution of tumor cell concentration from available multi-modal imaging, leveraging a Fisher-Kolmogorov type physics model to describe tumor growth. This is achieved through the newly introduced method of Optimizing the Discrete Loss (ODIL), where both data and physics-based constraints are softly assimilated into the solution. Our test dataset comprises 152 glioblastoma patients with pre-treatment imaging and post-treatment follow-ups for tumor recurrence monitoring. By blending data-driven techniques with physics-based constraints, GliODIL enhances recurrence prediction in radiotherapy planning, challenging traditional uniform margins and strict adherence to the Fisher-Kolmogorov partial differential equation (PDE) model, which is adapted for complex cases.

The stellar structures of star-forming galaxies (SFGs) undergo significant size growth during their mass assembly and must pass through a compaction phase as they evolve into quiescent galaxies (QGs). To shed light on the mechanisms behind this structural evolution, we study the morphology of the star-forming components of 665 SFGs at 0<z<2.5 measured using JWST/MIRI observation and compare them with the morphology of their stellar components taken from the literature. The stellar and star-forming components of most SFGs (66%) have extended disk-like structures that are aligned with each other and are of the same size. The star-forming components of these galaxies follow a mass-size relation, similar to that followed by their stellar components. At the highest mass, the optical S\'ersic index of these SFGs increases to 2.5, suggesting the presence of a dominant stellar bulge. Because their star-forming components remain disk-like, these bulges cannot have formed by secular in-situ growth. We identify a second population of galaxies lying below the MIR mass-size relation, with compact star-forming components embedded in extended stellar components (EC galaxy). These galaxies are overall rare (15%) but become more dominant (30%) at high mass (>10^{10.5}M_odot). The compact star-forming components of these galaxies are also concentrated and slightly spheroidal, suggesting that this compaction phase can build dense bulge in-situ. Finally, we identify a third population of SFGs (19%), with both compact stellar and star-forming components. The density of their stellar cores resemble those of QGs and are compatible with being the descendants of EC galaxy. Overall, the structural evolution of SFGs is mainly dominated by a secular inside-out growth, which can, however, be interrupted by violent compaction phase(s) that can build dominant stellar bulges like those in massive SFGs or QGs.

The population loss of trained deep neural networks often follows precise power-law scaling relations with either the size of the training dataset or the number of parameters in the network. We propose a theory that explains the origins of and connects these scaling laws. We identify variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behavior for both dataset and model size, for a total of four scaling regimes. The variance-limited scaling follows simply from the existence of a well-behaved infinite data or infinite width limit, while the resolution-limited regime can be explained by positing that models are effectively resolving a smooth data manifold. In the large width limit, this can be equivalently obtained from the spectrum of certain kernels, and we present evidence that large width and large dataset resolution-limited scaling exponents are related by a duality. We exhibit all four scaling regimes in the controlled setting of large random feature and pretrained models and test the predictions empirically on a range of standard architectures and datasets. We also observe several empirical relationships between datasets and scaling exponents under modifications of task and architecture aspect ratio. Our work provides a taxonomy for classifying different scaling regimes, underscores that there can be different mechanisms driving improvements in loss, and lends insight into the microscopic origins of and relationships between scaling exponents.

Carbonaceous nano-grains are a significant component of interstellar dust and dominate the mid-infrared emission of photodissociation regions (PDRs). We study the evolution of nano-grains across the illuminated edge of the Horsehead PDR, especially their abundance and size properties. This work is part of the Physics and Chemistry of PDR Fronts program studying dust and gas in PDRs with JWST. We use NIRCam+MIRI photometric bands and NIRSpec+MRS spectroscopy to map the illuminated edge. We model dust emission using the THEMIS dust model with the SOC radiative transfer code. Detailed modeling of high angular resolution JWST data allows us to obtain constraints on nano-grain properties. We find that diffuse ISM dust cannot account for the observed data, requiring evolved grains. A sharp density increase is observed at the illuminated edge, consistent with ALMA observations revealing a sharp transition between molecular and ionized gas. Although the PDR length could not be directly determined, we estimate an upper limit of approximately 0.015 pc. This implies a lower limit on small grain abundance (greater than 0.003), showing small grains are not depleted at the Horsehead edge, unlike in the Orion Bar. Our findings indicate a high-density environment and less steep size distribution for nano-grains at the illuminated edge versus the diffuse ISM. This implies nano-grain destruction mechanisms might be less efficient in the Horsehead's moderate-UV field than in more intense PDRs. These results support a model where nano-grain population recovery is slower in moderate-UV environments, leading to a unique dust size distribution at the edge of the Horsehead Nebula.

Traditional direct estimation methods are not efficient for domains of a survey population with small sample sizes. To estimate the domain proportions, we combine the direct estimators and the regression-synthetic estimators based on domain-level auxiliary information. For the case of small true proportions, we introduce the design-based linear combination that is a robust alternative to the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) based on the Fay--Herriot model. We also consider an adaptive procedure optimizing a sample-size-dependent composite estimator, which depends on a single parameter for all domains. We imitate the Lithuanian Labor Force Survey, where we estimate the proportions of the unemployed and employed in municipalities. We show where the considered design-based compositions and estimators of their mean square errors are competitive for EBLUP and its accuracy estimation.

Motivation The genotype assignment problem consists of predicting, from the genotype of an individual, which of a known set of populations it originated from. The problem arises in a variety of contexts, including wildlife forensics, invasive species detection and biodiversity monitoring. Existing approaches perform well under ideal conditions but are sensitive to a variety of common violations of the assumptions they rely on. Results In this article, we introduce Mycorrhiza, a machine learning approach for the genotype assignment problem. Our algorithm makes use of phylogenetic networks to engineer features that encode the evolutionary relationships among samples. Those features are then used as input to a Random Forests classifier. The classification accuracy was assessed on multiple published empirical SNP, microsatellite or consensus sequence datasets with wide ranges of size, geographical distribution and population structure and on simulated datasets. It compared favorably against widely used assessment tests or mixture analysis methods such as STRUCTURE and Admixture, and against another machine-learning based approach using principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction. Mycorrhiza yields particularly significant gains on datasets with a large average fixation index (FST) or deviation from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Moreover, the phylogenetic network approach estimates mixture proportions with good accuracy.

A Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) was used to perform video frame prediction of microbial growth for a population of two mutants of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The RNN was trained on videos of 20 frames that were acquired using fluorescence microscopy and microfluidics. The network predicted the last 10 frames of each video, and the accuracy's of the predictions was assessed by comparing raw images, population curves, and the number and size of individual colonies. Overall, we found the predictions to be accurate using this approach. The implications this result has on designing autonomous experiments in microbiology, and the steps that can be taken to make the predictions even more accurate, are discussed.

The recent proliferation of research into transformer based natural language processing has led to a number of studies which attempt to detect the presence of human-like cognitive behavior in the models. We contend that, as is true of human psychology, the investigation of cognitive behavior in language models must be conducted in an appropriate population of an appropriate size for the results to be meaningful. We leverage work in uncertainty estimation in a novel approach to efficiently construct experimental populations. The resultant tool, PopulationLM, has been made open source. We provide theoretical grounding in the uncertainty estimation literature and motivation from current cognitive work regarding language models. We discuss the methodological lessons from other scientific communities and attempt to demonstrate their application to two artificial population studies. Through population based experimentation we find that language models exhibit behavior consistent with typicality effects among categories highly represented in training. However, we find that language models don't tend to exhibit structural priming effects. Generally, our results show that single models tend to over estimate the presence of cognitive behaviors in neural models.

Sharp, multidimensional changepoints-abrupt shifts in a regression surface whose locations and magnitudes are unknown-arise in settings as varied as gene-expression profiling, financial covariance breaks, climate-regime detection, and urban socioeconomic mapping. Despite their prevalence, there are no current approaches that jointly estimate the location and size of the discontinuity set in a one-shot approach with statistical guarantees. We therefore introduce Free Discontinuity Regression (FDR), a fully nonparametric estimator that simultaneously (i) smooths a regression surface, (ii) segments it into contiguous regions, and (iii) provably recovers the precise locations and sizes of its jumps. By extending a convex relaxation of the Mumford-Shah functional to random spatial sampling and correlated noise, FDR overcomes the fixed-grid and i.i.d. noise assumptions of classical image-segmentation approaches, thus enabling its application to real-world data of any dimension. This yields the first identification and uniform consistency results for multivariate jump surfaces: under mild SBV regularity, the estimated function, its discontinuity set, and all jump sizes converge to their true population counterparts. Hyperparameters are selected automatically from the data using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate, and large-scale simulations up to three dimensions validate the theoretical results and demonstrate good finite-sample performance. Applying FDR to an internet shutdown in India reveals a 25-35% reduction in economic activity around the estimated shutdown boundaries-much larger than previous estimates. By unifying smoothing, segmentation, and effect-size recovery in a general statistical setting, FDR turns free-discontinuity ideas into a practical tool with formal guarantees for modern multivariate data.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

Large participatory biomedical studies, studies that recruit individuals to join a dataset, are gaining popularity and investment, especially for analysis by modern AI methods. Because they purposively recruit participants, these studies are uniquely able to address a lack of historical representation, an issue that has affected many biomedical datasets. In this work, we define representativeness as the similarity to a target population distribution of a set of attributes and our goal is to mirror the U.S. population across distributions of age, gender, race, and ethnicity. Many participatory studies recruit at several institutions, so we introduce a computational approach to adaptively allocate recruitment resources among sites to improve representativeness. In simulated recruitment of 10,000-participant cohorts from medical centers in the STAR Clinical Research Network, we show that our approach yields a more representative cohort than existing baselines. Thus, we highlight the value of computational modeling in guiding recruitment efforts.

Biodiversity assessments are critically affected by the spatial scale at which species richness is measured. How species richness accumulates with sampling area depends on natural and anthropogenic processes whose effects can change depending on the spatial scale considered. These accumulation dynamics, described by the species-area relationship (SAR), are challenging to assess because most biodiversity surveys are restricted to sampling areas much smaller than the scales at which these processes operate. Here, we combine sampling theory and deep learning to predict local species richness within arbitrarily large sampling areas, enabling for the first time to estimate spatial differences in SARs. We demonstrate our approach by predicting vascular plant species richness across Europe and evaluate predictions against an independent dataset of plant community inventories. The resulting model, named deep SAR, delivers multi-scale species richness maps, improving coarse grain richness estimates by 32% compared to conventional methods, while delivering finer grain estimates. Additional to its predictive capabilities, we show how our deep SAR model can provide fundamental insights on the multi-scale effects of key biodiversity processes. The capacity of our approach to deliver comprehensive species richness estimates across the full spectrum of ecologically relevant scales is essential for robust biodiversity assessments and forecasts under global change.

Nearly 110 million people are forcibly displaced people worldwide. However, estimating the scale and patterns of internally displaced persons in real time, and developing appropriate policy responses, remain hindered by traditional data streams. They are infrequently updated, costly and slow. Mobile phone location data can overcome these limitations, but only represent a population segment. Drawing on an anonymised large-scale, high-frequency dataset of locations from 25 million mobile devices, we propose an approach to leverage mobile phone data and produce population-level estimates of internal displacement. We use this approach to quantify the extent, pace and geographic patterns of internal displacement in Ukraine during the early stages of the Russian invasion in 2022. Our results produce reliable population-level estimates, enabling real-time monitoring of internal displacement at detailed spatio-temporal resolutions. Accurate estimations are crucial to support timely and effective humanitarian and disaster management responses, prioritising resources where they are most needed.

As large language models increase in capability, researchers have started to conduct surveys of all kinds on these models with varying scientific motivations. In this work, we examine what we can learn from a model's survey responses on the basis of the well-established American Community Survey (ACS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. Evaluating more than a dozen different models, varying in size from a few hundred million to ten billion parameters, hundreds of thousands of times each on questions from the ACS, we systematically establish two dominant patterns. First, smaller models have a significant position and labeling bias, for example, towards survey responses labeled with the letter "A". This A-bias diminishes, albeit slowly, as model size increases. Second, when adjusting for this labeling bias through randomized answer ordering, models still do not trend toward US population statistics or those of any cognizable population. Rather, models across the board trend toward uniformly random aggregate statistics over survey responses. This pattern is robust to various different ways of prompting the model, including what is the de-facto standard. Our findings demonstrate that aggregate statistics of a language model's survey responses lack the signals found in human populations. This absence of statistical signal cautions about the use of survey responses from large language models at present time.

The application of machine learning (ML) in a range of geospatial tasks is increasingly common but often relies on globally available covariates such as satellite imagery that can either be expensive or lack predictive power. Here we explore the question of whether the vast amounts of knowledge found in Internet language corpora, now compressed within large language models (LLMs), can be leveraged for geospatial prediction tasks. We first demonstrate that LLMs embed remarkable spatial information about locations, but naively querying LLMs using geographic coordinates alone is ineffective in predicting key indicators like population density. We then present GeoLLM, a novel method that can effectively extract geospatial knowledge from LLMs with auxiliary map data from OpenStreetMap. We demonstrate the utility of our approach across multiple tasks of central interest to the international community, including the measurement of population density and economic livelihoods. Across these tasks, our method demonstrates a 70% improvement in performance (measured using Pearson's r^2) relative to baselines that use nearest neighbors or use information directly from the prompt, and performance equal to or exceeding satellite-based benchmarks in the literature. With GeoLLM, we observe that GPT-3.5 outperforms Llama 2 and RoBERTa by 19% and 51% respectively, suggesting that the performance of our method scales well with the size of the model and its pretraining dataset. Our experiments reveal that LLMs are remarkably sample-efficient, rich in geospatial information, and robust across the globe. Crucially, GeoLLM shows promise in mitigating the limitations of existing geospatial covariates and complementing them well. Code is available on the project website: https://rohinmanvi.github.io/GeoLLM

We use the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) to study the evolution of the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) and far-infrared (FIR) sizes for a statistical sample of massive (gtrsim10^{9}M_{odot}) high redshift galaxies (z in [5,10]). Galaxies are post-processed using the SKIRT radiative transfer code, to self-consistently obtain the full spectral energy distribution and surface brightness distribution. We create mock observations of the galaxies for the Near Infrared Camera (NIRCam) to study the rest-frame UV 1500 xC5 morphology. We also generate mock rest-frame FIR (50 mum) photometry and mock ALMA (158 mum) (0.01"-0.03" and approx0.3" angular resolution) observations to study the dust-continuum. We find the effect of dust on observed sizes reduces with increasing wavelength from the UV to optical (sim0.6 times the UV at 0.4mum), with no evolution in FIR sizes. Observed sizes vary within 0.4-1.2 times the intrinsic sizes at different signal to noise ratios (SNR = 5-20) across redshifts. The effect of PSF and noise makes bright structures prominent, whereas fainter regions blend with noise, leading to an underestimation (factor of 0.4-0.8) of sizes at SNR=5. At SNR=15-20, the underestimation reduces (factor of 0.6-0.9) at z=5-8 but due to PSF, at z=9-10, bright cores are dominant, resulting in an overestimation (factor of 1.0-1.2). For ALMA, low resolution sizes are effected by noise which acts as extended emission. The size evolution in UV broadly agrees with current observational samples and other simulations. This work is one of the first to analyse the panchromatic sizes of a statistically significant sample of simulated high-redshift galaxies, complementing a growing body of research highlighting the importance of conducting an equivalent comparison between observed galaxies and their simulated counterparts in the early Universe.