Daily Papers

Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms can compute policy gradients given sampled environment transitions, but require large amounts of data. In contrast, model-based methods can use the learned model to generate new data, but model errors and bias can render learning unstable or suboptimal. In this paper, we present a novel method that combines real-world data and a learned model in order to get the best of both worlds. The core idea is to exploit the real-world data for on-policy predictions and use the learned model only to generalize to different actions. Specifically, we use the data as time-dependent on-policy correction terms on top of a learned model, to retain the ability to generate data without accumulating errors over long prediction horizons. We motivate this method theoretically and show that it counteracts an error term for model-based policy improvement. Experiments on MuJoCo- and PyBullet-benchmarks show that our method can drastically improve existing model-based approaches without introducing additional tuning parameters.

On-policy distillation is a promising approach for transferring knowledge between language models, where a student learns from dense token-level signals along its own trajectories. This framework typically uses reverse KL divergence, encouraging the student to match the teacher's high-confidence predictions. However, we show that the mode-seeking property of reverse KL reduces generation diversity and yields unstable learning signals when the teacher distribution has high entropy. To address this, we introduce Entropy-Aware On-Policy Distillation. Our key idea is augmenting the standard reverse KL objective with forward KL when teacher entropy is high, capturing the full range of plausible outputs while retaining precise imitation elsewhere. It balances mode-seeking precision with mode-covering robustness without sacrificing on-policy training efficiency. Experiments show that our method maintains generation diversity (sustained token-level entropy) and improves student-teacher alignment (lower forward KL on high-entropy tokens). Across six math reasoning benchmarks, this yields Pass@8 accuracy gains of +1.37 for Qwen3-0.6B-Base, +2.39 for Qwen3-1.7B-Base, and +5.05 for Qwen3-4B-Base compared to baseline on-policy distillation methods. These results demonstrate that accounting for teacher uncertainty is essential for maintaining diversity and achieving effective knowledge transfer.

We present DMax, a new paradigm for efficient diffusion language models (dLLMs). It mitigates error accumulation in parallel decoding, enabling aggressive decoding parallelism while preserving generation quality. Unlike conventional masked dLLMs that decode through a binary mask-to-token transition, DMax reformulates decoding as a progressive self-refinement from mask embeddings to token embeddings. At the core of our approach is On-Policy Uniform Training, a novel training strategy that efficiently unifies masked and uniform dLLMs, equipping the model to recover clean tokens from both masked inputs and its own erroneous predictions. Building on this foundation, we further propose Soft Parallel Decoding. We represent each intermediate decoding state as an interpolation between the predicted token embedding and the mask embedding, enabling iterative self-revising in embedding space. Extensive experiments across a variety of benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of DMax. Compared with the original LLaDA-2.0-mini, our method improves TPF on GSM8K from 2.04 to 5.47 while preserving accuracy. On MBPP, it increases TPF from 2.71 to 5.86 while maintaining comparable performance. On two H200 GPUs, our model achieves an average of 1,338 TPS at batch size 1. Code is available at: https://github.com/czg1225/DMax

Trajectory planning in unstructured environments is a fundamental and challenging capability for mobile robots. Traditional modular pipelines suffer from latency and cascading errors across perception, localization, mapping, and planning modules. Recent end-to-end learning methods map raw visual observations directly to control signals or trajectories, promising greater performance and efficiency in open-world settings. However, most prior end-to-end approaches still rely on separate localization modules that depend on accurate sensor extrinsic calibration for self-state estimation, thereby limiting generalization across embodiments and environments. We introduce LoGoPlanner, a localization-grounded, end-to-end navigation framework that addresses these limitations by: (1) finetuning a long-horizon visual-geometry backbone to ground predictions with absolute metric scale, thereby providing implicit state estimation for accurate localization; (2) reconstructing surrounding scene geometry from historical observations to supply dense, fine-grained environmental awareness for reliable obstacle avoidance; and (3) conditioning the policy on implicit geometry bootstrapped by the aforementioned auxiliary tasks, thereby reducing error propagation.We evaluate LoGoPlanner in both simulation and real-world settings, where its fully end-to-end design reduces cumulative error while metric-aware geometry memory enhances planning consistency and obstacle avoidance, leading to more than a 27.3\% improvement over oracle-localization baselines and strong generalization across embodiments and environments. The code and models have been made publicly available on the https://steinate.github.io/logoplanner.github.io/{project page}.

Video large language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in video understanding tasks. However, the redundancy of video tokens introduces significant computational overhead during inference, limiting their practical deployment. Many compression algorithms are proposed to prioritize retaining features with the highest attention scores to minimize perturbations in attention computations. However, the correlation between attention scores and their actual contribution to correct answers remains ambiguous. To address the above limitation, we propose a novel Contribution-aware token Compression algorithm for VIDeo understanding (CaCoVID) that explicitly optimizes the token selection policy based on the contribution of tokens to correct predictions. First, we introduce a reinforcement learning-based framework that optimizes a policy network to select video token combinations with the greatest contribution to correct predictions. This paradigm shifts the focus from passive token preservation to active discovery of optimal compressed token combinations. Secondly, we propose a combinatorial policy optimization algorithm with online combination space sampling, which dramatically reduces the exploration space for video token combinations and accelerates the convergence speed of policy optimization. Extensive experiments on diverse video understanding benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of CaCoVID. Codes will be released.

Recently, world-action models (WAM) have emerged to bridge vision-language-action (VLA) models and world models, unifying their reasoning and instruction-following capabilities and spatio-temporal world modeling. However, existing WAM approaches often focus on modeling 2D appearance or latent representations, with limited geometric grounding-an essential element for embodied systems operating in the physical world. We present DriveDreamer-Policy, a unified driving world-action model that integrates depth generation, future video generation, and motion planning within a single modular architecture. The model employs a large language model to process language instructions, multi-view images, and actions, followed by three lightweight generators that produce depth, future video, and actions. By learning a geometry-aware world representation and using it to guide both future prediction and planning within a unified framework, the proposed model produces more coherent imagined futures and more informed driving actions, while maintaining modularity and controllable latency. Experiments on the Navsim v1 and v2 benchmarks demonstrate that DriveDreamer-Policy achieves strong performance on both closed-loop planning and world generation tasks. In particular, our model reaches 89.2 PDMS on Navsim v1 and 88.7 EPDMS on Navsim v2, outperforming existing world-model-based approaches while producing higher-quality future video and depth predictions. Ablation studies further show that explicit depth learning provides complementary benefits to video imagination and improves planning robustness.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have shown strong potential for general-purpose robotic manipulation, but their reliance on expert demonstrations limits their ability to learn from failures and perform self-corrections. Reinforcement learning (RL) addresses these through self-improving interactions with the physical environment, but suffers from high sample complexity on real robots. We introduce World-Model-based Policy Optimization (WMPO), a principled framework for on-policy VLA RL without interacting with the real environment. In contrast to widely used latent world models, WMPO focuses on pixel-based predictions that align the "imagined" trajectories with the VLA features pretrained with web-scale images. Crucially, WMPO enables the policy to perform on-policy GRPO that provides stronger performance than the often-used off-policy methods. Extensive experiments in both simulation and real-robot settings demonstrate that WMPO (i) substantially improves sample efficiency, (ii) achieves stronger overall performance, (iii) exhibits emergent behaviors such as self-correction, and (iv) demonstrates robust generalization and lifelong learning capabilities.

Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences through reinforcement learning (RLHF) can lead to reward hacking, where LLMs exploit failures in the reward model (RM) to achieve seemingly high rewards without meeting the underlying objectives. We identify two primary challenges when designing RMs to mitigate reward hacking: distribution shifts during the RL process and inconsistencies in human preferences. As a solution, we propose Weight Averaged Reward Models (WARM), first fine-tuning multiple RMs, then averaging them in the weight space. This strategy follows the observation that fine-tuned weights remain linearly mode connected when sharing the same pre-training. By averaging weights, WARM improves efficiency compared to the traditional ensembling of predictions, while improving reliability under distribution shifts and robustness to preference inconsistencies. Our experiments on summarization tasks, using best-of-N and RL methods, shows that WARM improves the overall quality and alignment of LLM predictions; for example, a policy RL fine-tuned with WARM has a 79.4% win rate against a policy RL fine-tuned with a single RM.

Learning robust and generalizable world models is crucial for enabling efficient and scalable robotic control in real-world environments. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for learning world models that accurately capture complex, partially observable, and stochastic dynamics. The proposed method employs a dual-autoregressive mechanism and self-supervised training to achieve reliable long-horizon predictions without relying on domain-specific inductive biases, ensuring adaptability across diverse robotic tasks. We further propose a policy optimization framework that leverages world models for efficient training in imagined environments and seamless deployment in real-world systems. This work advances model-based reinforcement learning by addressing the challenges of long-horizon prediction, error accumulation, and sim-to-real transfer. By providing a scalable and robust framework, the introduced methods pave the way for adaptive and efficient robotic systems in real-world applications.

The role of reinforcement learning (RL) in enhancing the reasoning of large language models (LLMs) is becoming increasingly significant. Despite the success of RL in many scenarios, there are still many challenges in improving the reasoning of LLMs. One challenge is the sparse reward, which makes optimization difficult for RL and necessitates a large amount of data samples. Another challenge stems from the inherent instability of RL, particularly when using Actor-Critic (AC) methods to derive optimal policies, which often leads to unstable training processes. To address these issues, we introduce Direct Advantage Policy Optimization (DAPO), an novel step-level offline RL algorithm. Unlike standard alignment that rely solely outcome rewards to optimize policies (such as DPO), DAPO employs a critic function to predict the reasoning accuracy at each step, thereby generating dense signals to refine the generation strategy. Additionally, the Actor and Critic components in DAPO are trained independently, avoiding the co-training instability observed in standard AC algorithms like PPO. We train DAPO on mathematical and code query datasets and then evaluate its performance on multiple benchmarks. Our results show that DAPO can effectively enhance the mathematical and code capabilities on both SFT models and RL models, demonstrating the effectiveness of DAPO.

Reconstructing physically plausible human motion from monocular videos remains a challenging problem in computer vision and graphics. Existing methods primarily focus on kinematics-based pose estimation, often leading to unrealistic results due to the lack of physical constraints. To address such artifacts, prior methods have typically relied on physics-based post-processing following the initial kinematics-based motion estimation. However, this two-stage design introduces error accumulation, ultimately limiting the overall reconstruction quality. In this paper, we present PhysHMR, a unified framework that directly learns a visual-to-action policy for humanoid control in a physics-based simulator, enabling motion reconstruction that is both physically grounded and visually aligned with the input video. A key component of our approach is the pixel-as-ray strategy, which lifts 2D keypoints into 3D spatial rays and transforms them into global space. These rays are incorporated as policy inputs, providing robust global pose guidance without depending on noisy 3D root predictions. This soft global grounding, combined with local visual features from a pretrained encoder, allows the policy to reason over both detailed pose and global positioning. To overcome the sample inefficiency of reinforcement learning, we further introduce a distillation scheme that transfers motion knowledge from a mocap-trained expert to the vision-conditioned policy, which is then refined using physically motivated reinforcement learning rewards. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PhysHMR produces high-fidelity, physically plausible motion across diverse scenarios, outperforming prior approaches in both visual accuracy and physical realism.

Temporal credit assignment in reinforcement learning has long been a central challenge. Inspired by the multi-timescale encoding of the dopamine system in neurobiology, recent research has sought to introduce multiple discount factors into Actor-Critic architectures, such as Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), to balance short-term responses with long-term planning. However, this paper reveals that blindly fusing multi-timescale signals in complex delayed-reward tasks can lead to severe algorithmic pathologies. We systematically demonstrate that exposing a temporal attention routing mechanism to policy gradients results in surrogate objective hacking, while adopting gradient-free uncertainty weighting triggers irreversible myopic degeneration, a phenomenon we term the Paradox of Temporal Uncertainty. To address these issues, we propose a Target Decoupling architecture: on the Critic side, we retain multi-timescale predictions to enforce auxiliary representation learning, while on the Actor side, we strictly isolate short-term signals and update the policy based solely on long-term advantages. Rigorous empirical evaluations across multiple independent random seeds in the LunarLander-v2 environment demonstrate that our proposed architecture achieves statistically significant performance improvements. Without relying on hyperparameter hacking, it consistently surpasses the ''Environment Solved'' threshold with minimal variance, completely eliminates policy collapse, and escapes the hovering local optima that trap single-timescale baselines. The source code to reproduce our experiments is publicly available at https://github.com/ben-dlwlrma/Representation-Over-Routing.

This paper proposes a novel deep reinforcement learning architecture that was inspired by previous tree structured architectures which were only useable in discrete action spaces. Policy Prediction Network offers a way to improve sample complexity and performance on continuous control problems in exchange for extra computation at training time but at no cost in computation at rollout time. Our approach integrates a mix between model-free and model-based reinforcement learning. Policy Prediction Network is the first to introduce implicit model-based learning to Policy Gradient algorithms for continuous action space and is made possible via the empirically justified clipping scheme. Our experiments are focused on the MuJoCo environments so that they can be compared with similar work done in this area.

On-policy distillation (OPD) is widely used for LLM post-training. When pushed with a reward-extrapolation coefficient lambda > 1, the student can lift past the teacher in domain, but past a threshold lambda* the same step violates the output contract on structured-output tasks. In a single-position Bernoulli reduction, we derive a closed-form base-relative clip-safety threshold lambda*(p,b,c) determined by three measurable quantities: the teacher modal probability, the warm-start mass, and the importance-sampling clip strength. Above lambda*, the extrapolated fixed point exits the clip-safe region, changing training from format-preserving to format-collapsing. We extend the rule to calibrated K-ary listwise JSON tasks where a single binding equivalence class dominates the output contract and SFT retains parse headroom. On Amazon Fashion, three pre-registered tests--a fine-grid cliff interval, a budget-extension test, and a small-clip cross-prediction--fall within their locked prediction windows, with the small-clip value matching the closed-form prediction below grid resolution. Operating just below lambda*, ListOPD brings a 1.7B Qwen3 student to in-domain parity with an 8B-SFT baseline at one-fifth the parameters. The gain is driven primarily by format adherence: NDCG@1 on parsed outputs remains flat across lambda, while parse validity sharply changes at the predicted boundary. The cliff diagnostic is rubric-independent, whereas the parity claim uses a Gemini-graded rubric and inherits that evaluator's exposure.

The widespread reliance on open-source software dramatically increases the risk of vulnerability exploitation, underscoring the need for effective and scalable vulnerability detection (VD). Existing VD techniques, whether traditional machine learning-based or LLM-based approaches like prompt engineering, supervised fine-tuning, or off-policy preference optimization, remain fundamentally limited in their ability to perform context-aware analysis: They depend on fixed inputs or static preference datasets, cannot adaptively explore repository-level dependencies, and are constrained by function-level benchmarks that overlook critical vulnerability context. This paper introduces Vulnerability-Adaptive Policy Optimization (VULPO), an on-policy LLM reinforcement learning framework for context-aware VD. To support training and evaluation, we first construct ContextVul, a new dataset that augments high-quality function-level samples with lightweight method to extract repository-level context information. We then design multi-dimensional reward structuring that jointly captures prediction correctness, vulnerability localization accuracy, and the semantic relevance of vulnerability analysis, thereby guiding the model toward comprehensive contextual reasoning. To address the asymmetric difficulty of different vulnerability cases and mitigate reward hacking, VULPO incorporates label-level and sample-level difficulty-adaptive reward scaling, encouraging the model to explore challenging cases while maintaining balanced reward distribution. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our VULPO framework in context-aware VD: Our VULPO-4B substantially outperforms existing VD baselines based on prompt engineering and off-policy optimization, improving F1 by 85% over Qwen3-4B and achieving performance comparable to a 150x larger-scale model, DeepSeek-R1-0528.

Knowledge distillation has become a primary mechanism for transferring reasoning and domain expertise from frontier Large Language Models (LLMs) to smaller, deployable students. However, the dominant paradigm remains off-policy: students train on static teacher-generated data and never encounter their own errors during learning. This train--test mismatch, an instance of exposure bias, causes prediction errors to compound autoregressively at inference time. On-Policy Distillation (OPD) addresses this by letting the student generate its own trajectories and receive teacher feedback on these self-generated outputs, grounding distillation in the theory of interactive imitation learning. Despite rapid growth spanning divergence minimization, reward-guided learning, and self-play, the OPD literature remains fragmented with no unified treatment. This survey provides the first comprehensive overview of OPD for LLMs. We introduce a unified f-divergence framework over on-policy samples and organize the landscape along three orthogonal dimensions: feedback signal (logit-based, outcome-based, or self-play), teacher access (white-box, black-box, or teacher-free), and loss granularity (token-level, sequence-level, or hybrid). We systematically analyze representative methods, examine industrial deployments, and identify open problems including distillation scaling laws, uncertainty-aware feedback, and agent-level distillation.

MLLM-based GUI agents have demonstrated strong capabilities in complex user interface interaction tasks. However, long-horizon scenarios remain challenging, as these agents are burdened with tasks beyond their intrinsic capabilities, suffering from memory degradation, progress confusion, and math hallucination. To address these challenges, we present UI-Copilot, a collaborative framework where the GUI agent focuses on task execution while a lightweight copilot provides on-demand assistance for memory retrieval and numerical computation. We introduce memory decoupling to separate persistent observations from transient execution context, and train the policy agent to selectively invoke the copilot as Retriever or Calculator based on task demands. To enable effective tool invocation learning, we propose Tool-Integrated Policy Optimization (TIPO), which separately optimizes tool selection through single-turn prediction and task execution through on-policy multi-turn rollouts. Experimental results show that UI-Copilot-7B achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging MemGUI-Bench, outperforming strong 7B-scale GUI agents such as GUI-Owl-7B and UI-TARS-1.5-7B. Moreover, UI-Copilot-7B delivers a 17.1% absolute improvement on AndroidWorld over the base Qwen model, highlighting UI-Copilot's strong generalization to real-world GUI tasks.

Recent advancements have shown that reinforcement learning (RL) can substantially improve the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). The effectiveness of such RL training, however, depends critically on the exploration space defined by the pre-trained model's token-output distribution. In this paper, we revisit the standard cross-entropy loss, interpreting it as a specific instance of policy gradient optimization applied within a single-step episode. To systematically study how the pre-trained distribution shapes the exploration potential for subsequent RL, we propose a generalized pre-training objective that adapts on-policy RL principles to supervised learning. By framing next-token prediction as a stochastic decision process, we introduce a reward-shaping strategy that explicitly balances diversity and precision. Our method employs a positive reward scaling factor to control probability concentration on ground-truth tokens and a rank-aware mechanism that treats high-ranking and low-ranking negative tokens asymmetrically. This allows us to reshape the pre-trained token-output distribution and investigate how to provide a more favorable exploration space for RL, ultimately enhancing end-to-end reasoning performance. Contrary to the intuition that higher distribution entropy facilitates effective exploration, we find that imposing a precision-oriented prior yields a superior exploration space for RL.

Latent prediction--where agents learn by predicting their own latents--has emerged as a powerful paradigm for training general representations in machine learning. In reinforcement learning (RL), this approach has been explored to define auxiliary losses for a variety of settings, including reward-based and unsupervised RL, behavior cloning, and world modeling. While existing methods are typically limited to single-task learning, one-step prediction, or on-policy trajectory data, we show that temporal difference (TD) learning enables learning representations predictive of long-term latent dynamics across multiple policies from offline, reward-free transitions. Building on this, we introduce TD-JEPA, which leverages TD-based latent-predictive representations into unsupervised RL. TD-JEPA trains explicit state and task encoders, a policy-conditioned multi-step predictor, and a set of parameterized policies directly in latent space. This enables zero-shot optimization of any reward function at test time. Theoretically, we show that an idealized variant of TD-JEPA avoids collapse with proper initialization, and learns encoders that capture a low-rank factorization of long-term policy dynamics, while the predictor recovers their successor features in latent space. Empirically, TD-JEPA matches or outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on locomotion, navigation, and manipulation tasks across 13 datasets in ExoRL and OGBench, especially in the challenging setting of zero-shot RL from pixels.

A successful tactic that is followed by the scientific community for advancing AI is to treat games as problems, which has been proven to lead to various breakthroughs. We adapt this strategy in order to study Rocket League, a widely popular but rather under-explored 3D multiplayer video game with a distinct physics engine and complex dynamics that pose a significant challenge in developing efficient and high-performance game-playing agents. In this paper, we present Lucy-SKG, a Reinforcement Learning-based model that learned how to play Rocket League in a sample-efficient manner, outperforming by a notable margin the two highest-ranking bots in this game, namely Necto (2022 bot champion) and its successor Nexto, thus becoming a state-of-the-art agent. Our contributions include: a) the development of a reward analysis and visualization library, b) novel parameterizable reward shape functions that capture the utility of complex reward types via our proposed Kinesthetic Reward Combination (KRC) technique, and c) design of auxiliary neural architectures for training on reward prediction and state representation tasks in an on-policy fashion for enhanced efficiency in learning speed and performance. By performing thorough ablation studies for each component of Lucy-SKG, we showed their independent effectiveness in overall performance. In doing so, we demonstrate the prospects and challenges of using sample-efficient Reinforcement Learning techniques for controlling complex dynamical systems under competitive team-based multiplayer conditions.

Visual representations play a crucial role in developing generalist robotic policies. Previous vision encoders, typically pre-trained with single-image reconstruction or two-image contrastive learning, tend to capture static information, often neglecting the dynamic aspects vital for embodied tasks. Recently, video diffusion models (VDMs) demonstrate the ability to predict future frames and showcase a strong understanding of physical world. We hypothesize that VDMs inherently produce visual representations that encompass both current static information and predicted future dynamics, thereby providing valuable guidance for robot action learning. Based on this hypothesis, we propose the Video Prediction Policy (VPP), which learns implicit inverse dynamics model conditioned on predicted future representations inside VDMs. To predict more precise future, we fine-tune pre-trained video foundation model on robot datasets along with internet human manipulation data. In experiments, VPP achieves a 18.6\% relative improvement on the Calvin ABC-D generalization benchmark compared to the previous state-of-the-art, and demonstrates a 31.6\% increase in success rates for complex real-world dexterous manipulation tasks. Project page at https://video-prediction-policy.github.io

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a promising route to sample-efficient policy optimization. However, a known vulnerability of reconstruction-based MBRL consists of scenarios in which detailed aspects of the world are highly predictable, but irrelevant to learning a good policy. Such scenarios can lead the model to exhaust its capacity on meaningless content, at the cost of neglecting important environment dynamics. While existing approaches attempt to solve this problem, we highlight its continuing impact on leading MBRL methods -- including DreamerV3 and DreamerPro -- with a novel environment where background distractions are intricate, predictable, and useless for planning future actions. To address this challenge we develop a method for focusing the capacity of the world model through synergy of a pretrained segmentation model, a task-aware reconstruction loss, and adversarial learning. Our method outperforms a variety of other approaches designed to reduce the impact of distractors, and is an advance towards robust model-based reinforcement learning.

Constructing states from sequences of observations is an important component of reinforcement learning agents. One solution for state construction is to use recurrent neural networks. Back-propagation through time (BPTT), and real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) are two popular gradient-based methods for recurrent learning. BPTT requires complete trajectories of observations before it can compute the gradients and is unsuitable for online updates. RTRL can do online updates but scales poorly to large networks. In this paper, we propose two constraints that make RTRL scalable. We show that by either decomposing the network into independent modules or learning the network in stages, we can make RTRL scale linearly with the number of parameters. Unlike prior scalable gradient estimation algorithms, such as UORO and Truncated-BPTT, our algorithms do not add noise or bias to the gradient estimate. Instead, they trade off the functional capacity of the network for computationally efficient learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach over Truncated-BPTT on a prediction benchmark inspired by animal learning and by doing policy evaluation of pre-trained policies for Atari 2600 games.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in image generation tasks, including image editing and video creation, representing a good understanding of the physical world. On the other line, diffusion models have also shown promise in robotic control tasks by denoising actions, known as diffusion policy. Although the diffusion generative model and diffusion policy exhibit distinct capabilities--image prediction and robotic action, respectively--they technically follow a similar denoising process. In robotic tasks, the ability to predict future images and generate actions is highly correlated since they share the same underlying dynamics of the physical world. Building on this insight, we introduce PAD, a novel visual policy learning framework that unifies image Prediction and robot Action within a joint Denoising process. Specifically, PAD utilizes Diffusion Transformers (DiT) to seamlessly integrate images and robot states, enabling the simultaneous prediction of future images and robot actions. Additionally, PAD supports co-training on both robotic demonstrations and large-scale video datasets and can be easily extended to other robotic modalities, such as depth images. PAD outperforms previous methods, achieving a significant 26.3% relative improvement on the full Metaworld benchmark, by utilizing a single text-conditioned visual policy within a data-efficient imitation learning setting. Furthermore, PAD demonstrates superior generalization to unseen tasks in real-world robot manipulation settings with 28.0% success rate increase compared to the strongest baseline. Project page at https://sites.google.com/view/pad-paper

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have spurred interest in designing LLM-based agents for tasks that involve interaction with human and artificial agents. This paper addresses a key aspect in the design of such agents: Predicting human decision in off-policy evaluation (OPE), focusing on language-based persuasion games, where the agent's goal is to influence its partner's decisions through verbal messages. Using a dedicated application, we collected a dataset of 87K decisions from humans playing a repeated decision-making game with artificial agents. Our approach involves training a model on human interactions with one agents subset to predict decisions when interacting with another. To enhance off-policy performance, we propose a simulation technique involving interactions across the entire agent space and simulated decision makers. Our learning strategy yields significant OPE gains, e.g., improving prediction accuracy in the top 15% challenging cases by 7.1%. Our code and the large dataset we collected and generated are submitted as supplementary material and publicly available in our GitHub repository: https://github.com/eilamshapira/HumanChoicePrediction

Prediction sets can wrap around any ML model to cover unknown test outcomes with a guaranteed probability. Yet, it remains unclear how to use them optimally for downstream decision-making. Here, we propose a decision-theoretic framework that seeks to minimize the expected loss (risk) against a worst-case distribution consistent with the prediction set's coverage guarantee. We first characterize the minimax optimal policy for a fixed prediction set, showing that it balances the worst-case loss inside the set with a penalty for potential losses outside the set. Building on this, we derive the optimal prediction set construction that minimizes the resulting robust risk subject to a coverage constraint. Finally, we introduce Risk-Optimal Conformal Prediction (ROCP), a practical algorithm that targets these risk-minimizing sets while maintaining finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage. Empirical evaluations on medical diagnosis and safety-critical decision-making tasks demonstrate that ROCP reduces critical mistakes compared to baselines, particularly when out-of-set errors are costly.

Learning a generalizable bimanual manipulation policy is extremely challenging for embodied agents due to the large action space and the need for coordinated arm movements. Existing approaches rely on Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models to acquire bimanual policies. However, transferring knowledge from single-arm datasets or pre-trained VLA models often fails to generalize effectively, primarily due to the scarcity of bimanual data and the fundamental differences between single-arm and bimanual manipulation. In this paper, we propose a novel bimanual foundation policy by fine-tuning the leading text-to-video models to predict robot trajectories and training a lightweight diffusion policy for action generation. Given the lack of embodied knowledge in text-to-video models, we introduce a two-stage paradigm that fine-tunes independent text-to-flow and flow-to-video models derived from a pre-trained text-to-video model. Specifically, optical flow serves as an intermediate variable, providing a concise representation of subtle movements between images. The text-to-flow model predicts optical flow to concretize the intent of language instructions, and the flow-to-video model leverages this flow for fine-grained video prediction. Our method mitigates the ambiguity of language in single-stage text-to-video prediction and significantly reduces the robot-data requirement by avoiding direct use of low-level actions. In experiments, we collect high-quality manipulation data for real dual-arm robot, and the results of simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Developing an accurate tourism forecasting model is essential for making desirable policy decisions for tourism management. Early studies on tourism management focus on discovering external factors related to tourism demand. Recent studies utilize deep learning in demand forecasting along with these external factors. They mainly use recursive neural network models such as LSTM and RNN for their frameworks. However, these models are not suitable for use in forecasting tourism demand. This is because tourism demand is strongly affected by changes in various external factors, and recursive neural network models have limitations in handling these multivariate inputs. We propose a multi-head attention CNN model (MHAC) for addressing these limitations. The MHAC uses 1D-convolutional neural network to analyze temporal patterns and the attention mechanism to reflect correlations between input variables. This model makes it possible to extract spatiotemporal characteristics from time-series data of various variables. We apply our forecasting framework to predict inbound tourist changes in South Korea by considering external factors such as politics, disease, season, and attraction of Korean culture. The performance results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other deep-learning-based prediction frameworks in South Korea tourism forecasting.

In robotic visuomotor policy learning, diffusion-based models have achieved significant success in improving the accuracy of action trajectory generation compared to traditional autoregressive models. However, they suffer from inefficiency due to multiple denoising steps and limited flexibility from complex constraints. In this paper, we introduce Coarse-to-Fine AutoRegressive Policy (CARP), a novel paradigm for visuomotor policy learning that redefines the autoregressive action generation process as a coarse-to-fine, next-scale approach. CARP decouples action generation into two stages: first, an action autoencoder learns multi-scale representations of the entire action sequence; then, a GPT-style transformer refines the sequence prediction through a coarse-to-fine autoregressive process. This straightforward and intuitive approach produces highly accurate and smooth actions, matching or even surpassing the performance of diffusion-based policies while maintaining efficiency on par with autoregressive policies. We conduct extensive evaluations across diverse settings, including single-task and multi-task scenarios on state-based and image-based simulation benchmarks, as well as real-world tasks. CARP achieves competitive success rates, with up to a 10% improvement, and delivers 10x faster inference compared to state-of-the-art policies, establishing a high-performance, efficient, and flexible paradigm for action generation in robotic tasks.

Prediction of stock prices plays a significant role in aiding the decision-making of investors. Considering its importance, a growing literature has emerged trying to forecast stock prices with improved accuracy. In this study, we introduce an innovative approach for forecasting stock prices with greater accuracy. We incorporate external economic environment-related information along with stock prices. In our novel approach, we improve the performance of stock price prediction by taking into account variations due to future expected macroeconomic policy changes as investors adjust their current behavior ahead of time based on expected future macroeconomic policy changes. Furthermore, we incorporate macroeconomic variables along with historical stock prices to make predictions. Results from this strongly support the inclusion of future economic policy changes along with current macroeconomic information. We confirm the supremacy of our method over the conventional approach using several tree-based machine-learning algorithms. Results are strongly conclusive across various machine learning models. Our preferred model outperforms the conventional approach with an RMSE value of 1.61 compared to an RMSE value of 1.75 from the conventional approach.

Despite remarkable progress in driving world models, their potential for autonomous systems remains largely untapped: the world models are mostly learned for world simulation and decoupled from trajectory planning. While recent efforts aim to unify world modeling and planning in a single framework, the synergistic facilitation mechanism of world modeling for planning still requires further exploration. In this work, we introduce a new driving paradigm named Policy World Model (PWM), which not only integrates world modeling and trajectory planning within a unified architecture, but is also able to benefit planning using the learned world knowledge through the proposed action-free future state forecasting scheme. Through collaborative state-action prediction, PWM can mimic the human-like anticipatory perception, yielding more reliable planning performance. To facilitate the efficiency of video forecasting, we further introduce a dynamically enhanced parallel token generation mechanism, equipped with a context-guided tokenizer and an adaptive dynamic focal loss. Despite utilizing only front camera input, our method matches or exceeds state-of-the-art approaches that rely on multi-view and multi-modal inputs. Code and model weights will be released at https://github.com/6550Zhao/Policy-World-Model.

Recent imitation learning policies, often framed as time series prediction tasks, directly map robotic observations-such as high-dimensional visual data and proprioception-into the action space. While time series prediction primarily relies on spatial domain modeling, the underutilization of frequency domain analysis in robotic manipulation trajectory prediction may lead to neglecting the inherent temporal information embedded within action sequences. To address this, we reframe imitation learning policies through the lens of the frequency domain and introduce the Wavelet Policy. This novel approach employs wavelet transforms (WT) for feature preprocessing and extracts multi-scale features from the frequency domain using the SE2MD (Single Encoder to Multiple Decoder) architecture. Furthermore, to enhance feature mapping in the frequency domain and increase model capacity, we introduce a Learnable Frequency-Domain Filter (LFDF) after each frequency decoder, improving adaptability under different visual conditions. Our results show that the Wavelet Policy outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) end-to-end methods by over 10% on four challenging robotic arm tasks, while maintaining a comparable parameter count. In long-range settings, its performance declines more slowly as task volume increases. The source code is available at https://github.com/lurenjia384/Wavelet_Policy.

Most existing vision-language-action (VLA) models for robotic manipulation lack progress awareness, typically relying on hand-crafted heuristics for task termination. This limitation is particularly severe in long-horizon tasks involving cascaded sub-goals. In this work, we investigate the estimation and integration of task progress, proposing a novel model named {\textbf \vla}. Our technical contributions are twofold: (1) robust progress estimation: We pre-train a progress estimator on large-scale, unsupervised video-text robotic datasets. This estimator achieves a low prediction residual (0.07 on a scale of [0, 1]) in simulation and demonstrates zero-shot generalization to unseen real-world samples, and (2) differentiable progress guidance: We introduce an inverse dynamics world model that maps predicted action tokens into future latent visual states. These latents are then processed by the progress estimator; by applying a maximal progress regularization, we establish a differentiable pipeline that provides progress-piloted guidance to refine action tokens. Extensive experiments on the CALVIN and LIBERO benchmarks, alongside real-world robot deployment, consistently demonstrate substantial improvements in success rates and generalization over strong baselines.

Robotic manipulation requires understanding both the 3D spatial structure of the environment and its temporal evolution, yet most existing policies overlook one or both. They typically rely on 2D visual observations and backbones pretrained on static image--text pairs, resulting in high data requirements and limited understanding of environment dynamics. To address this, we introduce MV-VDP, a multi-view video diffusion policy that jointly models the 3D spatio-temporal state of the environment. The core idea is to simultaneously predict multi-view heatmap videos and RGB videos, which 1) align the representation format of video pretraining with action finetuning, and 2) specify not only what actions the robot should take, but also how the environment is expected to evolve in response to those actions. Extensive experiments show that MV-VDP enables data-efficient, robust, generalizable, and interpretable manipulation. With only ten demonstration trajectories and without additional pretraining, MV-VDP successfully performs complex real-world tasks, demonstrates strong robustness across a range of model hyperparameters, generalizes to out-of-distribution settings, and predicts realistic future videos. Experiments on Meta-World and real-world robotic platforms demonstrate that MV-VDP consistently outperforms video-prediction--based, 3D-based, and vision--language--action models, establishing a new state of the art in data-efficient multi-task manipulation.

Recent advances in Graphical User Interface (GUI) and embodied navigation have driven significant progress, yet these domains have largely evolved in isolation, with disparate datasets and training paradigms. In this paper, we observe that both tasks can be formulated as Markov Decision Processes (MDP), suggesting a foundational principle for their unification. Hence, we present NaviMaster, the first unified agent capable of seamlessly integrating GUI navigation and embodied navigation within a single framework. Specifically, NaviMaster (i) proposes a visual-target trajectory collection pipeline that generates trajectories for both GUI and embodied tasks in one formulation. (ii) employs a unified reinforcement learning framework on the mix data for better generalization. (iii) designs a novel distance-aware reward to ensure efficient learning from the trajectories. Through extensive experiments on out-of-domain benchmarks, NaviMaster is shown to outperform state-of-the-art agents in GUI navigation, spatial affordance prediction, and embodied navigation. Ablation studies further confirm the efficacy of our unified training strategy, data mixing strategy, and reward design.

Reasoning over long sequences of observations and actions is essential for many robotic tasks. Yet, learning effective long-context policies from demonstrations remains challenging. As context length increases, training becomes increasingly expensive due to rising memory demands, and policy performance often degrades as a result of spurious correlations. Recent methods typically sidestep these issues by truncating context length, discarding historical information that may be critical for subsequent decisions. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach that explicitly regularizes the retention of past information. We first revisit the copycat problem in imitation learning and identify an opposite challenge in recent diffusion policies: rather than over-relying on prior actions, they often fail to capture essential dependencies between past and future actions. To address this, we introduce Past-Token Prediction (PTP), an auxiliary task in which the policy learns to predict past action tokens alongside future ones. This regularization significantly improves temporal modeling in the policy head, with minimal reliance on visual representations. Building on this observation, we further introduce a multistage training strategy: pre-train the visual encoder with short contexts, and fine-tune the policy head using cached long-context embeddings. This strategy preserves the benefits of PTP while greatly reducing memory and computational overhead. Finally, we extend PTP into a self-verification mechanism at test time, enabling the policy to score and select candidates consistent with past actions during inference. Experiments across four real-world and six simulated tasks demonstrate that our proposed method improves the performance of long-context diffusion policies by 3x and accelerates policy training by more than 10x.

Fast weight architectures offer a promising alternative to attention-based transformers for long-context modeling by maintaining constant memory overhead regardless of context length. However, their potential is limited by the next-token prediction (NTP) training paradigm. NTP optimizes single-token predictions and ignores semantic coherence across multiple tokens following a prefix. Consequently, fast weight models, which dynamically update their parameters to store contextual information, learn suboptimal representations that fail to capture long-range dependencies. We introduce REFINE (Reinforced Fast weIghts with Next sEquence prediction), a reinforcement learning framework that trains fast weight models under the next-sequence prediction (NSP) objective. REFINE selects informative token positions based on prediction entropy, generates multi-token rollouts, assigns self-supervised sequence-level rewards, and optimizes the model with group relative policy optimization (GRPO). REFINE is applicable throughout the training lifecycle of pre-trained language models: mid-training, post-training, and test-time training. Our experiments on LaCT-760M and DeltaNet-1.3B demonstrate that REFINE consistently outperforms supervised fine-tuning with NTP across needle-in-a-haystack retrieval, long-context question answering, and diverse tasks in LongBench. REFINE provides an effective and versatile framework for improving long-context modeling in fast weight architectures.

Image Quality Assessment (IQA) predicts perceptual quality scores consistent with human judgments. Recent RL-based IQA methods built on MLLMs focus on generating visual quality descriptions and scores, ignoring two key reliability limitations: (i) although the model's prediction stability varies significantly across training samples, existing GRPO-based methods apply uniform advantage weighting, thereby amplifying noisy signals from unstable samples in gradient updates; (ii) most works emphasize text-grounded reasoning over images while overlooking the model's visual perception ability of image content. In this paper, we propose Q-Hawkeye, an RL-based reliable visual policy optimization framework that redesigns the learning signal through unified Uncertainty-Aware Dynamic Optimization and Perception-Aware Optimization. Q-Hawkeye estimates predictive uncertainty using the variance of predicted scores across multiple rollouts and leverages this uncertainty to reweight each sample's update strength, stabilizing policy optimization. To strengthen perceptual reliability, we construct paired inputs of degraded images and their original images and introduce an Implicit Perception Loss that constrains the model to ground its quality judgments in genuine visual evidence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Q-Hawkeye outperforms state-of-the-art methods and generalizes better across multiple datasets. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/Q-Hawkeye.

Generalizing language-conditioned robotic policies to new tasks remains a significant challenge, hampered by the lack of suitable simulation benchmarks. In this paper, we address this gap by introducing GemBench, a novel benchmark to assess generalization capabilities of vision-language robotic manipulation policies. GemBench incorporates seven general action primitives and four levels of generalization, spanning novel placements, rigid and articulated objects, and complex long-horizon tasks. We evaluate state-of-the-art approaches on GemBench and also introduce a new method. Our approach 3D-LOTUS leverages rich 3D information for action prediction conditioned on language. While 3D-LOTUS excels in both efficiency and performance on seen tasks, it struggles with novel tasks. To address this, we present 3D-LOTUS++, a framework that integrates 3D-LOTUS's motion planning capabilities with the task planning capabilities of LLMs and the object grounding accuracy of VLMs. 3D-LOTUS++ achieves state-of-the-art performance on novel tasks of GemBench, setting a new standard for generalization in robotic manipulation. The benchmark, codes and trained models are available at https://www.di.ens.fr/willow/research/gembench/.

Mathematical reasoning, a core ability of human intelligence, presents unique challenges for machines in abstract thinking and logical reasoning. Recent large pre-trained language models such as GPT-3 have achieved remarkable progress on mathematical reasoning tasks written in text form, such as math word problems (MWP). However, it is unknown if the models can handle more complex problems that involve math reasoning over heterogeneous information, such as tabular data. To fill the gap, we present Tabular Math Word Problems (TabMWP), a new dataset containing 38,431 open-domain grade-level problems that require mathematical reasoning on both textual and tabular data. Each question in TabMWP is aligned with a tabular context, which is presented as an image, semi-structured text, and a structured table. There are two types of questions: free-text and multi-choice, and each problem is annotated with gold solutions to reveal the multi-step reasoning process. We evaluate different pre-trained models on TabMWP, including the GPT-3 model in a few-shot setting. As earlier studies suggest, since few-shot GPT-3 relies on the selection of in-context examples, its performance is unstable and can degrade to near chance. The unstable issue is more severe when handling complex problems like TabMWP. To mitigate this, we further propose a novel approach, PromptPG, which utilizes policy gradient to learn to select in-context examples from a small amount of training data and then constructs the corresponding prompt for the test example. Experimental results show that our method outperforms the best baseline by 5.31% on the accuracy metric and reduces the prediction variance significantly compared to random selection, which verifies its effectiveness in selecting in-context examples.

World-Action Models (WAM) initialized from pre-trained video generation backbones have demonstrated remarkable potential for robot policy learning. However, existing approaches face two critical bottlenecks that hinder performance and deployment. First, jointly reasoning over future visual dynamics and corresponding actions incurs substantial inference overhead. Second, joint modeling often entangles visual and motion representations, making motion prediction accuracy heavily dependent on the quality of future video forecasts. To address these issues, we introduce GigaWorld-Policy, an action-centered WAM that learns 2D pixel-action dynamics while enabling efficient action decoding, with optional video generation. Specifically, we formulate policy training into two coupled components: the model predicts future action sequences conditioned on the current observation, and simultaneously generates future videos conditioned on the predicted actions and the same observation. The policy is supervised by both action prediction and video generation, providing richer learning signals and encouraging physically plausible actions through visual-dynamics constraints. With a causal design that prevents future-video tokens from influencing action tokens, explicit future-video generation is optional at inference time, allowing faster action prediction during deployment. To support this paradigm, we curate a diverse, large-scale robot dataset to pre-train an action-centered video generation model, which is then adapted as the backbone for robot policy learning. Experimental results on real-world robotic platforms show that GigaWorld-Policy runs 9x faster than the leading WAM baseline, Motus, while improving task success rates by 7%. Moreover, compared with pi-0.5, GigaWorld-Policy improves performance by 95% on RoboTwin 2.0.

Embodied manipulation requires accurate 3D understanding of objects and their spatial relations to plan and execute contact-rich actions. While large-scale 3D vision models provide strong priors, their computational cost incurs prohibitive latency for real-time control. We propose Real-time 3D-aware Policy (R3DP), which integrates powerful 3D priors into manipulation policies without sacrificing real-time performance. A core innovation of R3DP is the asynchronous fast-slow collaboration module, which seamlessly integrates large-scale 3D priors into the policy without compromising real-time performance. The system maintains real-time efficiency by querying the pre-trained slow system (VGGT) only on sparse key frames, while simultaneously employing a lightweight Temporal Feature Prediction Network (TFPNet) to predict features for all intermediate frames. By leveraging historical data to exploit temporal correlations, TFPNet explicitly improves task success rates through consistent feature estimation. Additionally, to enable more effective multi-view fusion, we introduce a Multi-View Feature Fuser (MVFF) that aggregates features across views by explicitly incorporating camera intrinsics and extrinsics. R3DP offers a plug-and-play solution for integrating large models into real-time inference systems. We evaluate R3DP against multiple baselines across different visual configurations. R3DP effectively harnesses large-scale 3D priors to achieve superior results, outperforming single-view and multi-view DP by 32.9% and 51.4% in average success rate, respectively. Furthermore, by decoupling heavy 3D reasoning from policy execution, R3DP achieves a 44.8% reduction in inference time compared to a naive DP+VGGT integration.

Current robotic planning methods often rely on predicting multi-frame images with full pixel details. While this fine-grained approach can serve as a generic world model, it introduces two significant challenges for downstream policy learning: substantial computational costs that hinder real-time deployment, and accumulated inaccuracies that can mislead action extraction. Planning with coarse-grained subgoals partially alleviates efficiency issues. However, their forward planning schemes can still result in off-task predictions due to accumulation errors, leading to misalignment with long-term goals. This raises a critical question: Can robotic planning be both efficient and accurate enough for real-time control in long-horizon, multi-stage tasks? To address this, we propose a Latent Space Backward Planning scheme (LBP), which begins by grounding the task into final latent goals, followed by recursively predicting intermediate subgoals closer to the current state. The grounded final goal enables backward subgoal planning to always remain aware of task completion, facilitating on-task prediction along the entire planning horizon. The subgoal-conditioned policy incorporates a learnable token to summarize the subgoal sequences and determines how each subgoal guides action extraction. Through extensive simulation and real-robot long-horizon experiments, we show that LBP outperforms existing fine-grained and forward planning methods, achieving SOTA performance. Project Page: https://lbp-authors.github.io

We explore how to enhance next-token prediction models to perform in-context imitation learning on a real robot, where the robot executes new tasks by interpreting contextual information provided during the input phase, without updating its underlying policy parameters. We propose In-Context Robot Transformer (ICRT), a causal transformer that performs autoregressive prediction on sensorimotor trajectories without relying on any linguistic data or reward function. This formulation enables flexible and training-free execution of new tasks at test time, achieved by prompting the model with sensorimotor trajectories of the new task composing of image observations, actions and states tuples, collected through human teleoperation. Experiments with a Franka Emika robot demonstrate that the ICRT can adapt to new tasks specified by prompts, even in environment configurations that differ from both the prompt and the training data. In a multitask environment setup, ICRT significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art next-token prediction models in robotics on generalizing to unseen tasks. Code, checkpoints and data are available on https://icrt.dev/

Drug discovery is a complex and resource-intensive process, making early prediction of approval outcomes critical for optimizing research investments. While classical machine learning and deep learning methods have shown promise in drug approval prediction, their limited interpretability constraints their impact. Here, we present DrugReasoner, a reasoning-based large language model (LLM) built on the LLaMA architecture and fine-tuned with group relative policy optimization (GRPO) to predict the likelihood of small-molecule approval. DrugReasoner integrates molecular descriptors with comparative reasoning against structurally similar approved and unapproved compounds, generating predictions alongside step-by-step rationales and confidence scores. DrugReasoner achieved robust performance with an AUC of 0.732 and an F1 score of 0.729 on the validation set and 0.725 and 0.718 on the test set, respectively. These results outperformed conventional baselines, including logistic regression, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbors and had competitive performance relative to XGBoost. On an external independent dataset, DrugReasoner outperformed both baseline and the recently developed ChemAP model, achieving an AUC of 0.728 and an F1-score of 0.774, while maintaining high precision and balanced sensitivity, demonstrating robustness in real-world scenarios. These findings demonstrate that DrugReasoner not only delivers competitive predictive accuracy but also enhances transparency through its reasoning outputs, thereby addressing a key bottleneck in AI-assisted drug discovery. This study highlights the potential of reasoning-augmented LLMs as interpretable and effective tools for pharmaceutical decision-making.

The success of transformer models trained with a language modeling objective brings a promising opportunity to the reinforcement learning framework. Decision Transformer is a step towards this direction, showing how to train transformers with a similar next-step prediction objective on offline data. Another important development in this area is the recent emergence of large-scale datasets collected from the internet, such as the ones composed of tutorial videos with captions where people talk about what they are doing. To take advantage of this language component, we propose a novel method for unifying language reasoning with actions in a single policy. Specifically, we augment a transformer policy with word outputs, so it can generate textual captions interleaved with actions. When tested on the most challenging task in BabyAI, with captions describing next subgoals, our reasoning policy consistently outperforms the caption-free baseline.

Specifying robotic manipulation tasks in a manner that is both expressive and precise remains a central challenge. While visual goals provide a compact and unambiguous task specification, existing goal-conditioned policies often struggle with long-horizon manipulation due to their reliance on single-step action prediction without explicit modeling of task progress. We propose Act2Goal, a general goal-conditioned manipulation policy that integrates a goal-conditioned visual world model with multi-scale temporal control. Given a current observation and a target visual goal, the world model generates a plausible sequence of intermediate visual states that captures long-horizon structure. To translate this visual plan into robust execution, we introduce Multi-Scale Temporal Hashing (MSTH), which decomposes the imagined trajectory into dense proximal frames for fine-grained closed-loop control and sparse distal frames that anchor global task consistency. The policy couples these representations with motor control through end-to-end cross-attention, enabling coherent long-horizon behavior while remaining reactive to local disturbances. Act2Goal achieves strong zero-shot generalization to novel objects, spatial layouts, and environments. We further enable reward-free online adaptation through hindsight goal relabeling with LoRA-based finetuning, allowing rapid autonomous improvement without external supervision. Real-robot experiments demonstrate that Act2Goal improves success rates from 30% to 90% on challenging out-of-distribution tasks within minutes of autonomous interaction, validating that goal-conditioned world models with multi-scale temporal control provide structured guidance necessary for robust long-horizon manipulation. Project page: https://act2goal.github.io/

We introduce InternVLA-M1, a unified framework for spatial grounding and robot control that advances instruction-following robots toward scalable, general-purpose intelligence. Its core idea is spatially guided vision-language-action training, where spatial grounding serves as the critical link between instructions and robot actions. InternVLA-M1 employs a two-stage pipeline: (i) spatial grounding pre-training on over 2.3M spatial reasoning data to determine ``where to act'' by aligning instructions with visual, embodiment-agnostic positions, and (ii) spatially guided action post-training to decide ``how to act'' by generating embodiment-aware actions through plug-and-play spatial prompting. This spatially guided training recipe yields consistent gains: InternVLA-M1 outperforms its variant without spatial guidance by +14.6% on SimplerEnv Google Robot, +17% on WidowX, and +4.3% on LIBERO Franka, while demonstrating stronger spatial reasoning capability in box, point, and trace prediction. To further scale instruction following, we built a simulation engine to collect 244K generalizable pick-and-place episodes, enabling a 6.2% average improvement across 200 tasks and 3K+ objects. In real-world clustered pick-and-place, InternVLA-M1 improved by 7.3%, and with synthetic co-training, achieved +20.6% on unseen objects and novel configurations. Moreover, in long-horizon reasoning-intensive scenarios, it surpassed existing works by over 10%. These results highlight spatially guided training as a unifying principle for scalable and resilient generalist robots. Code and models are available at https://github.com/InternRobotics/InternVLA-M1.

Heterogeneity in sensors and actuators across environments poses a significant challenge to building large-scale pre-trained world models on top of this low-dimensional sensor information. In this work, we explore pre-training world models for heterogeneous environments by addressing key transfer barriers in both data diversity and model flexibility. We introduce UniTraj, a unified dataset comprising over one million trajectories from 80 environments, designed to scale data while preserving critical diversity. Additionally, we propose TrajWorld, a novel architecture capable of flexibly handling varying sensor and actuator information and capturing environment dynamics in-context. Pre-training TrajWorld on UniTraj demonstrates significant improvements in transition prediction and achieves a new state-of-the-art for off-policy evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, this work, for the first time, demonstrates the transfer benefits of world models across heterogeneous and complex control environments.

Current visual evaluation approaches are typically constrained to a single task. To address this, we propose OmniQuality-R, a unified reward modeling framework that transforms multi-task quality reasoning into continuous and interpretable reward signals for policy optimization. Inspired by subjective experiments, where participants are given task-specific instructions outlining distinct assessment principles prior to evaluation, we propose OmniQuality-R, a structured reward modeling framework that transforms multi-dimensional reasoning into continuous and interpretable reward signals. To enable this, we construct a reasoning-enhanced reward modeling dataset by sampling informative plan-reason trajectories via rejection sampling, forming a reliable chain-of-thought (CoT) dataset for supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Building on this, we apply Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for post-training, using a Gaussian-based reward to support continuous score prediction. To further stabilize the training and improve downstream generalization, we incorporate standard deviation (STD) filtering and entropy gating mechanisms during reinforcement learning. These techniques suppress unstable updates and reduce variance in policy optimization. We evaluate OmniQuality-R on three key IQA tasks: aesthetic quality assessment, technical quality evaluation, and text-image alignment.

Previous imitation learning policies predict future actions at every control step, whether in smooth motion phases or precise, contact-rich operation phases. This uniform treatment is wasteful: most steps in a manipulation trajectory traverse free space and carry little task-relevant information, while a small fraction of key steps around contacts, grasps, and alignment demand dense, high-resolution prediction. We propose a novel action relabeling mechanism: at each timestep in a skip segment, we replace the behavior cloning target with the action at the entrance of the next key segment, enabling the policy to leap over redundant steps in a single decision. The resulting Skip Policy (SkiP) dynamically leaps over skip segments and intensively refines actions in key segments, within a single unified network requiring no learned skip planner or hierarchical structure. To automatically partition demonstrations into key and skip segments without manual annotation, we introduce Motion Spectrum Keying (MSK), a fast, task-agnostic procedure that detects local motion complexity from action signals. Extensive experiments across 72 simulated manipulation tasks and three real-robot tasks show that SkiP reduces executed steps by 15--40% while matching or improving success rates across various policy backbones. Project page: https://pgq18.github.io/SkiP-page/.

Large language models are increasingly post-trained with reinforcement learning in verifiable domains such as code and math. Yet, current methods for reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) learn only from a scalar outcome reward per attempt, creating a severe credit-assignment bottleneck. Many verifiable environments actually provide rich textual feedback, such as runtime errors or judge evaluations, that explain why an attempt failed. We formalize this setting as reinforcement learning with rich feedback and introduce Self-Distillation Policy Optimization (SDPO), which converts tokenized feedback into a dense learning signal without any external teacher or explicit reward model. SDPO treats the current model conditioned on feedback as a self-teacher and distills its feedback-informed next-token predictions back into the policy. In this way, SDPO leverages the model's ability to retrospectively identify its own mistakes in-context. Across scientific reasoning, tool use, and competitive programming on LiveCodeBench v6, SDPO improves sample efficiency and final accuracy over strong RLVR baselines. Notably, SDPO also outperforms baselines in standard RLVR environments that only return scalar feedback by using successful rollouts as implicit feedback for failed attempts. Finally, applying SDPO to individual questions at test time accelerates discovery on difficult binary-reward tasks, achieving the same discovery probability as best-of-k sampling or multi-turn conversations with 3x fewer attempts.

Acute poly-substance intoxication requires rapid, life-saving decisions under substantial uncertainty, as clinicians must rely on incomplete ingestion details and nonspecific symptoms. Effective diagnostic reasoning in this chaotic environment requires fusing unstructured, non-medical narratives (e.g. paramedic scene descriptions and unreliable patient self-reports or known histories), with structured medical data like vital signs. While Large Language Models (LLMs) show potential for processing such heterogeneous inputs, they struggle in this setting, often underperforming simple baselines that rely solely on patient histories. To address this, we present DeToxR (Decision-support for Toxicology with Reasoning), the first adaptation of Reinforcement Learning (RL) to emergency toxicology. We design a robust data-fusion engine for multi-label prediction across 14 substance classes based on an LLM finetuned with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). We optimize the model's reasoning directly using a clinical performance reward. By formulating a multi-label agreement metric as the reward signal, the model is explicitly penalized for missing co-ingested substances and hallucinating absent poisons. Our model significantly outperforms its unadapted base LLM counterpart and supervised baselines. Furthermore, in a clinical validation study, the model indicates a clinical advantage by outperforming an expert toxicologist in identifying the correct poisons (Micro-F1: 0.644 vs. 0.473). These results demonstrate the potential of RL-aligned LLMs to synthesize unstructured pre-clinical narratives and structured medical data for decision support in high-stakes environments.

Game playing has long served as a fundamental benchmark for evaluating Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in general reasoning, their effectiveness in spatial strategic reasoning, which is critical for complex and fully observable board games, remains insufficiently explored. In this work, we adopt Chinese Chess (Xiangqi) as a challenging and rich testbed due to its intricate rules and spatial complexity. To advance LLMs' strategic competence in such environments, we propose a training framework tailored to Xiangqi, built upon a large-scale dataset of five million board-move pairs enhanced with expert annotations and engine evaluations. Building on this foundation, we introduce Xiangqi-R1, a 7B-parameter model trained in multi-stage manner: (1) fine-tuning for legal move prediction to capture basic spatial rules, (2) incorporating strategic annotations to improve decision-making, and (3) applying reinforcement learning via Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with multi-dimensional reward signals to enhance reasoning stability. Our Experimental results indicate that, despite their size and power, general-purpose LLMs struggle to achieve satisfactory performance in these tasks. Compared to general-purpose LLMs, Xiangqi-R1 greatly advances with an 18% rise in move legality and a 22% boost in analysis accuracy. Our results point to a promising path for creating general strategic intelligence in spatially complex areas.

Large foundation models have shown strong open-world generalization to complex problems in vision and language, but similar levels of generalization have yet to be achieved in robotics. One fundamental challenge is the lack of robotic data, which are typically obtained through expensive on-robot operation. A promising remedy is to leverage cheaper, off-domain data such as action-free videos, hand-drawn sketches or simulation data. In this work, we posit that hierarchical vision-language-action (VLA) models can be more effective in utilizing off-domain data than standard monolithic VLA models that directly finetune vision-language models (VLMs) to predict actions. In particular, we study a class of hierarchical VLA models, where the high-level VLM is finetuned to produce a coarse 2D path indicating the desired robot end-effector trajectory given an RGB image and a task description. The intermediate 2D path prediction is then served as guidance to the low-level, 3D-aware control policy capable of precise manipulation. Doing so alleviates the high-level VLM from fine-grained action prediction, while reducing the low-level policy's burden on complex task-level reasoning. We show that, with the hierarchical design, the high-level VLM can transfer across significant domain gaps between the off-domain finetuning data and real-robot testing scenarios, including differences on embodiments, dynamics, visual appearances and task semantics, etc. In the real-robot experiments, we observe an average of 20% improvement in success rate across seven different axes of generalization over OpenVLA, representing a 50% relative gain. Visual results, code, and dataset are provided at: https://hamster-robot.github.io/

The ability for robots to comprehend and execute manipulation tasks based on natural language instructions is a long-term goal in robotics. The dominant approaches for language-guided manipulation use 2D image representations, which face difficulties in combining multi-view cameras and inferring precise 3D positions and relationships. To address these limitations, we propose a 3D point cloud based policy called PolarNet for language-guided manipulation. It leverages carefully designed point cloud inputs, efficient point cloud encoders, and multimodal transformers to learn 3D point cloud representations and integrate them with language instructions for action prediction. PolarNet is shown to be effective and data efficient in a variety of experiments conducted on the RLBench benchmark. It outperforms state-of-the-art 2D and 3D approaches in both single-task and multi-task learning. It also achieves promising results on a real robot.

Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents have made substantial strides in understanding and executing user instructions across diverse platforms. Yet, grounding these instructions to precise interface elements remains challenging, especially in complex, high-resolution, professional environments. Traditional supervised finetuning (SFT) methods often require large volumes of diverse data and exhibit weak generalization. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a reinforcement learning (RL) based framework that incorporates three core strategies: (1) seed data curation to ensure high quality training samples, (2) a dense policy gradient that provides continuous feedback based on prediction accuracy, and (3) a self evolutionary reinforcement finetuning mechanism that iteratively refines the model using attention maps. With only 3k training samples, our 7B-parameter model achieves state-of-the-art results among similarly sized models on three grounding benchmarks. Notably, it attains 47.3\% accuracy on the ScreenSpot-Pro dataset, outperforming much larger models, such as UI-TARS-72B, by a margin of 24.2\%. These findings underscore the effectiveness of RL-based approaches in enhancing GUI agent performance, particularly in high-resolution, complex environments.

End-to-end autonomous driving systems based on vision-language-action (VLA) models integrate multimodal sensor inputs and language instructions to generate planning and control signals. While autoregressive large language models and continuous diffusion policies are prevalent, the potential of discrete masked diffusion for trajectory generation remains largely unexplored. This paper presents WAM-Diff, a VLA framework that employs masked diffusion to iteratively refine a discrete sequence representing future ego-trajectories. Our approach features three key innovations: a systematic adaptation of masked diffusion for autonomous driving that supports flexible, non-causal decoding orders; scalable model capacity via a sparse MoE architecture trained jointly on motion prediction and driving-oriented visual question answering (VQA); and online reinforcement learning using Group Sequence Policy Optimization (GSPO) to optimize sequence-level driving rewards. Remarkably, our model achieves 91.0 PDMS on NAVSIM-v1 and 89.7 EPDMS on NAVSIM-v2, demonstrating the effectiveness of masked diffusion for autonomous driving. The approach provides a promising alternative to autoregressive and diffusion-based policies, supporting scenario-aware decoding strategies for trajectory generation. The code for this paper will be released publicly at: https://github.com/fudan-generative-vision/WAM-Diff

Any entity in the visual world can be hierarchically grouped based on shared characteristics and mapped to fine-grained sub-categories. While Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) achieve strong performance on coarse-grained visual tasks, they often struggle with Fine-Grained Visual Recognition (FGVR). Adapting general-purpose MLLMs to FGVR typically requires large amounts of annotated data, which is costly to obtain, leaving a substantial performance gap compared to contrastive CLIP models dedicated for discriminative tasks. Moreover, MLLMs tend to overfit to seen sub-categories and generalize poorly to unseen ones. To address these challenges, we propose Fine-R1, an MLLM tailored for FGVR through an R1-style training framework: (1) Chain-of-Thought Supervised Fine-tuning, where we construct a high-quality FGVR CoT dataset with rationales of "visual analysis, candidate sub-categories, comparison, and prediction", transition the model into a strong open-world classifier; and (2) Triplet Augmented Policy Optimization, where Intra-class Augmentation mixes trajectories from anchor and positive images within the same category to improve robustness to intra-class variance, while Inter-class Augmentation maximizes the response distinction conditioned on images across sub-categories to enhance discriminative ability. With only 4-shot training, Fine-R1 outperforms existing general MLLMs, reasoning MLLMs, and even contrastive CLIP models in identifying both seen and unseen sub-categories, showing promise in working in knowledge-intensive domains where gathering expert annotations for all sub-categories is arduous. Code is available at https://github.com/PKU-ICST-MIPL/FineR1_ICLR2026.

On-policy reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms perform policy updates using i.i.d. trajectories collected by the current policy. However, after observing only a finite number of trajectories, on-policy sampling may produce data that fails to match the expected on-policy data distribution. This sampling error leads to noisy updates and data inefficient on-policy learning. Recent work in the policy evaluation setting has shown that non-i.i.d., off-policy sampling can produce data with lower sampling error than on-policy sampling can produce. Motivated by this observation, we introduce an adaptive, off-policy sampling method to improve the data efficiency of on-policy policy gradient algorithms. Our method, Proximal Robust On-Policy Sampling (PROPS), reduces sampling error by collecting data with a behavior policy that increases the probability of sampling actions that are under-sampled with respect to the current policy. Rather than discarding data from old policies -- as is commonly done in on-policy algorithms -- PROPS uses data collection to adjust the distribution of previously collected data to be approximately on-policy. We empirically evaluate PROPS on both continuous-action MuJoCo benchmark tasks as well as discrete-action tasks and demonstrate that (1) PROPS decreases sampling error throughout training and (2) improves the data efficiency of on-policy policy gradient algorithms. Our work improves the RL community's understanding of a nuance in the on-policy vs off-policy dichotomy: on-policy learning requires on-policy data, not on-policy sampling.

Aligning language models with human preferences relies on pairwise preference datasets. While some studies suggest that on-policy data consistently outperforms off -policy data for preference learning, others indicate that the advantages of on-policy data may be task-dependent, highlighting the need for a systematic exploration of their interplay. In this work, we show that on-policy and off-policy data offer complementary strengths in preference optimization: on-policy data is particularly effective for reasoning tasks like math and coding, while off-policy data performs better on open-ended tasks such as creative writing and making personal recommendations. Guided by these findings, we introduce SIMPLEMIX, an approach to combine the complementary strengths of on-policy and off-policy preference learning by simply mixing these two data sources. Our empirical results across diverse tasks and benchmarks demonstrate that SIMPLEMIX substantially improves language model alignment. Specifically, SIMPLEMIX improves upon on-policy DPO and off-policy DPO by an average of 6.03% on Alpaca Eval 2.0. Moreover, it outperforms prior approaches that are much more complex in combining on- and off-policy data, such as HyPO and DPO-Mix-P, by an average of 3.05%.

Generative world models hold significant potential for simulating interactions with visuomotor policies in varied environments. Frontier video models can enable generation of realistic observations and environment interactions in a scalable and general manner. However, the use of video models in robotics has been limited primarily to in-distribution evaluations, i.e., scenarios that are similar to ones used to train the policy or fine-tune the base video model. In this report, we demonstrate that video models can be used for the entire spectrum of policy evaluation use cases in robotics: from assessing nominal performance to out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, and probing physical and semantic safety. We introduce a generative evaluation system built upon a frontier video foundation model (Veo). The system is optimized to support robot action conditioning and multi-view consistency, while integrating generative image-editing and multi-view completion to synthesize realistic variations of real-world scenes along multiple axes of generalization. We demonstrate that the system preserves the base capabilities of the video model to enable accurate simulation of scenes that have been edited to include novel interaction objects, novel visual backgrounds, and novel distractor objects. This fidelity enables accurately predicting the relative performance of different policies in both nominal and OOD conditions, determining the relative impact of different axes of generalization on policy performance, and performing red teaming of policies to expose behaviors that violate physical or semantic safety constraints. We validate these capabilities through 1600+ real-world evaluations of eight Gemini Robotics policy checkpoints and five tasks for a bimanual manipulator.

Evaluating policies using off-policy data is crucial for applying reinforcement learning to real-world problems such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Previous methods for off-policy evaluation (OPE) generally suffer from high variance or irreducible bias, leading to unacceptably high prediction errors. In this work, we introduce STAR, a framework for OPE that encompasses a broad range of estimators -- which include existing OPE methods as special cases -- that achieve lower mean squared prediction errors. STAR leverages state abstraction to distill complex, potentially continuous problems into compact, discrete models which we call abstract reward processes (ARPs). Predictions from ARPs estimated from off-policy data are provably consistent (asymptotically correct). Rather than proposing a specific estimator, we present a new framework for OPE and empirically demonstrate that estimators within STAR outperform existing methods. The best STAR estimator outperforms baselines in all twelve cases studied, and even the median STAR estimator surpasses the baselines in seven out of the twelve cases.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns of trade is a high-priority for policy makers around the world. While traditional economic models aim to be reliable predictors, we consider the possibility that Machine Learning (ML) techniques allow for better predictions to inform policy decisions. Open-government data provide the fuel to power the algorithms that can explain and forecast trade flows to inform policies. Data collected in this article describe international trade transactions and commonly associated economic factors. Machine learning (ML) models deployed include: ARIMA, GBoosting, XGBoosting, and LightGBM for predicting future trade patterns, and K-Means clustering of countries according to economic factors. Unlike short-term and subjective (straight-line) projections and medium-term (aggre-gated) projections, ML methods provide a range of data-driven and interpretable projections for individual commodities. Models, their results, and policies are introduced and evaluated for prediction quality.

Aligning large language models (LLMs) on domain-specific data remains a fundamental challenge. Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) offers a straightforward way to inject domain knowledge but often degrades the model's generality. In contrast, on-policy reinforcement learning (RL) preserves generality but fails to effectively assimilate hard samples that exceed the model's current reasoning level. Recent off-policy RL attempts improve hard sample utilization, yet they suffer from severe training instability due to the forced distribution shift toward off-policy knowledge. To reconcile effective off-policy knowledge absorption with the stability of on-policy RL, we propose Rephrasing Policy Optimization (RePO). In RePO, the policy model is prompted to first comprehend off-policy knowledge and then rephrase it into trajectories that conform to its own stylistic and parametric distribution. RePO dynamically replaces low-reward rollouts with these rephrased, high-quality trajectories. This strategy guides the model toward correct reasoning paths while strictly preserving on-policy training dynamics. Experiments on several benchmarks demonstrate that RePO improves hard-sample utilization and outperforms existing baselines, achieving state-of-the-art performance.

On-policy reinforcement learning (RL) has become a popular framework for solving sequential decision problems due to its computational efficiency and theoretical simplicity. Some on-policy methods guarantee every policy update is constrained to a trust region relative to the prior policy to ensure training stability. These methods often require computationally intensive non-linear optimization or require a particular form of action distribution. In this work, we show that applying KL penalization alone is nearly sufficient to enforce such trust regions. Then, we show that introducing a "fixup" phase is sufficient to guarantee a trust region is enforced on every policy update while adding fewer than 5% additional gradient steps in practice. The resulting algorithm, which we call FixPO, is able to train a variety of policy architectures and action spaces, is easy to implement, and produces results competitive with other trust region methods.

The way people respond to messaging from public health organizations on social media can provide insight into public perceptions on critical health issues, especially during a global crisis such as COVID-19. It could be valuable for high-impact organizations such as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or the World Health Organization (WHO) to understand how these perceptions impact reception of messaging on health policy recommendations. We collect two datasets of public health messages and their responses from Twitter relating to COVID-19 and Vaccines, and introduce a predictive method which can be used to explore the potential reception of such messages. Specifically, we harness a generative model (GPT-2) to directly predict probable future responses and demonstrate how it can be used to optimize expected reception of important health guidance. Finally, we introduce a novel evaluation scheme with extensive statistical testing which allows us to conclude that our models capture the semantics and sentiment found in actual public health responses.

Uniform random exploration in decision-making systems supports off-policy learning via supervision but incurs high regret, making it impractical for many applications. Conversely, non-uniform exploration offers better immediate performance but lacks support for off-policy learning. Recent research suggests that regression oracles can bridge this gap by combining non-uniform exploration with supervised learning. In this paper, we analyze these approaches within a real-world industrial context at Adyen, a large global payments processor characterized by batch logged delayed feedback, short-term memory, and dynamic action spaces under the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework. Our analysis reveals that while regression oracles significantly improve performance, they introduce challenges due to rigid algorithmic assumptions. Specifically, we observe that as a policy improves, subsequent generations may perform worse due to shifts in the reward distribution and increased class imbalance in the training data. This degradation occurs de spite improvements in other aspects of the training data, leading to decreased performance in successive policy iterations. We further explore the long-term impact of regression oracles, identifying a potential "oscillation effect." This effect arises when regression oracles influence probability estimates and the realizability of subsequent policy models, leading to fluctuations in performance across iterations. Our findings highlight the need for more adaptable algorithms that can leverage the benefits of regression oracles without introducing instability in policy performance over time.

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) is the standard paradigm for domain adaptation, yet it frequently incurs the cost of catastrophic forgetting. In sharp contrast, on-policy Reinforcement Learning (RL) effectively preserves general capabilities. We investigate this discrepancy and identify a fundamental distributional gap: while RL aligns with the model's internal belief, SFT forces the model to fit external supervision. This mismatch often manifests as "Confident Conflicts" tokens characterized by low probability but low entropy. In these instances, the model is highly confident in its own prediction but is forced to learn a divergent ground truth, triggering destructive gradient updates. To address this, we propose Entropy-Adaptive Fine-Tuning (EAFT). Unlike methods relying solely on prediction probability, EAFT utilizes token-level entropy as a gating mechanism to distinguish between epistemic uncertainty and knowledge conflict. This allows the model to learn from uncertain samples while suppressing gradients on conflicting data. Extensive experiments on Qwen and GLM series (ranging from 4B to 32B parameters) across mathematical, medical, and agentic domains confirm our hypothesis. EAFT consistently matches the downstream performance of standard SFT while significantly mitigating the degradation of general capabilities.

On-policy distillation (OPD) has become a core technique in the post-training of large language models, yet its training dynamics remain poorly understood. This paper provides a systematic investigation of OPD dynamics and mechanisms. We first identify that two conditions govern whether OPD succeeds or fails: (i) the student and teacher should share compatible thinking patterns; and (ii) even with consistent thinking patterns and higher scores, the teacher must offer genuinely new capabilities beyond what the student has seen during training. We validate these findings through weak-to-strong reverse distillation, showing that same-family 1.5B and 7B teachers are distributionally indistinguishable from the student's perspective. Probing into the token-level mechanism, we show that successful OPD is characterized by progressive alignment on high-probability tokens at student-visited states, a small shared token set that concentrates most of the probability mass (97%-99%). We further propose two practical strategies to recover failing OPD: off-policy cold start and teacher-aligned prompt selection. Finally, we show that OPD's apparent free lunch of dense token-level reward comes at a cost, raising the question of whether OPD can scale to long-horizon distillation.

Learning dynamics, which describes how the learning of specific training examples influences the model's predictions on other examples, gives us a powerful tool for understanding the behavior of deep learning systems. We study the learning dynamics of large language models during different types of finetuning, by analyzing the step-wise decomposition of how influence accumulates among different potential responses. Our framework allows a uniform interpretation of many interesting observations about the training of popular algorithms for both instruction tuning and preference tuning. In particular, we propose a hypothetical explanation of why specific types of hallucination are strengthened after finetuning, e.g., the model might use phrases or facts in the response for question B to answer question A, or the model might keep repeating similar simple phrases when generating responses. We also extend our framework and highlight a unique "squeezing effect" to explain a previously observed phenomenon in off-policy direct preference optimization (DPO), where running DPO for too long makes even the desired outputs less likely. This framework also provides insights into where the benefits of on-policy DPO and other variants come from. The analysis not only provides a novel perspective of understanding LLM's finetuning but also inspires a simple, effective method to improve alignment performance.

We study the problem of learning optimal policy from a set of discrete treatment options using observational data. We propose a piecewise linear neural network model that can balance strong prescriptive performance and interpretability, which we refer to as the prescriptive ReLU network, or P-ReLU. We show analytically that this model (i) partitions the input space into disjoint polyhedra, where all instances that belong to the same partition receive the same treatment, and (ii) can be converted into an equivalent prescriptive tree with hyperplane splits for interpretability. We demonstrate the flexibility of the P-ReLU network as constraints can be easily incorporated with minor modifications to the architecture. Through experiments, we validate the superior prescriptive accuracy of P-ReLU against competing benchmarks. Lastly, we present examples of interpretable prescriptive trees extracted from trained P-ReLUs using a real-world dataset, for both the unconstrained and constrained scenarios.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is a method for estimating the return of a target policy using some pre-collected observational data generated by a potentially different behavior policy. In some cases, there may be unmeasured variables that can confound the action-reward or action-next-state relationships, rendering many existing OPE approaches ineffective. This paper develops an instrumental variable (IV)-based method for consistent OPE in confounded Markov decision processes (MDPs). Similar to single-stage decision making, we show that IV enables us to correctly identify the target policy's value in infinite horizon settings as well. Furthermore, we propose an efficient and robust value estimator and illustrate its effectiveness through extensive simulations and analysis of real data from a world-leading short-video platform.

Hybrid RL is the setting where an RL agent has access to both offline data and online data by interacting with the real-world environment. In this work, we propose a new hybrid RL algorithm that combines an on-policy actor-critic method with offline data. On-policy methods such as policy gradient and natural policy gradient (NPG) have shown to be more robust to model misspecification, though sometimes it may not be as sample efficient as methods that rely on off-policy learning. On the other hand, offline methods that depend on off-policy training often require strong assumptions in theory and are less stable to train in practice. Our new approach integrates a procedure of off-policy training on the offline data into an on-policy NPG framework. We show that our approach, in theory, can obtain a best-of-both-worlds type of result -- it achieves the state-of-art theoretical guarantees of offline RL when offline RL-specific assumptions hold, while at the same time maintaining the theoretical guarantees of on-policy NPG regardless of the offline RL assumptions' validity. Experimentally, in challenging rich-observation environments, we show that our approach outperforms a state-of-the-art hybrid RL baseline which only relies on off-policy policy optimization, demonstrating the empirical benefit of combining on-policy and off-policy learning. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/YifeiZhou02/HNPG.

A good model for action-effect prediction, named environment model, is important to achieve sample-efficient decision-making policy learning in many domains like robot control, recommender systems, and patients' treatment selection. We can take unlimited trials with such a model to identify the appropriate actions so that the costs of queries in the real world can be saved. It requires the model to handle unseen data correctly, also called counterfactual data. However, standard data fitting techniques do not automatically achieve such generalization ability and commonly result in unreliable models. In this work, we introduce counterfactual-query risk minimization (CQRM) in model learning for generalizing to a counterfactual dataset queried by a specific target policy. Since the target policies can be various and unknown in policy learning, we propose an adversarial CQRM objective in which the model learns on counterfactual data queried by adversarial policies, and finally derive a tractable solution GALILEO. We also discover that adversarial CQRM is closely related to the adversarial model learning, explaining the effectiveness of the latter. We apply GALILEO in synthetic tasks and a real-world application. The results show that GALILEO makes accurate predictions on counterfactual data and thus significantly improves policies in real-world testing.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Future- or return-conditioned supervised learning is an emerging paradigm for offline reinforcement learning (RL), where the future outcome (i.e., return) associated with an observed action sequence is used as input to a policy trained to imitate those same actions. While return-conditioning is at the heart of popular algorithms such as decision transformer (DT), these methods tend to perform poorly in highly stochastic environments, where an occasional high return can arise from randomness in the environment rather than the actions themselves. Such situations can lead to a learned policy that is inconsistent with its conditioning inputs; i.e., using the policy to act in the environment, when conditioning on a specific desired return, leads to a distribution of real returns that is wildly different than desired. In this work, we propose the dichotomy of control (DoC), a future-conditioned supervised learning framework that separates mechanisms within a policy's control (actions) from those beyond a policy's control (environment stochasticity). We achieve this separation by conditioning the policy on a latent variable representation of the future, and designing a mutual information constraint that removes any information from the latent variable associated with randomness in the environment. Theoretically, we show that DoC yields policies that are consistent with their conditioning inputs, ensuring that conditioning a learned policy on a desired high-return future outcome will correctly induce high-return behavior. Empirically, we show that DoC is able to achieve significantly better performance than DT on environments that have highly stochastic rewards and transition

How can robot manipulation policies generalize to novel tasks involving unseen object types and new motions? In this paper, we provide a solution in terms of predicting motion information from web data through human video generation and conditioning a robot policy on the generated video. Instead of attempting to scale robot data collection which is expensive, we show how we can leverage video generation models trained on easily available web data, for enabling generalization. Our approach Gen2Act casts language-conditioned manipulation as zero-shot human video generation followed by execution with a single policy conditioned on the generated video. To train the policy, we use an order of magnitude less robot interaction data compared to what the video prediction model was trained on. Gen2Act doesn't require fine-tuning the video model at all and we directly use a pre-trained model for generating human videos. Our results on diverse real-world scenarios show how Gen2Act enables manipulating unseen object types and performing novel motions for tasks not present in the robot data. Videos are at https://homangab.github.io/gen2act/

On-policy reinforcement learning (RL) methods widely used for language model post-training, like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), often suffer from limited exploration and early saturation due to low sampling diversity. While off-policy data can help, current approaches that mix entire trajectories cause significant policy mismatch and instability. In this work, we propose the Single-sample Mix-pOlicy Unified Paradigm (SOUP), a framework that unifies off- and on-policy learning within individual samples at the token level. It confines off-policy influence to the prefix of a generated sequence sampled from historical policies, while the continuation is generated on-policy. Through token-level importance ratios, SOUP effectively leverages off-policy information while preserving training stability. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SOUP consistently outperforms standard on-policy training and existing off-policy extensions. Our further analysis clarifies how our fine-grained, single-sample mix-policy training can improve both exploration and final performance in LLM RL.

In recent years, various powerful policy gradient algorithms have been proposed in deep reinforcement learning. While all these algorithms build on the Policy Gradient Theorem, the specific design choices differ significantly across algorithms. We provide a holistic overview of on-policy policy gradient algorithms to facilitate the understanding of both their theoretical foundations and their practical implementations. In this overview, we include a detailed proof of the continuous version of the Policy Gradient Theorem, convergence results and a comprehensive discussion of practical algorithms. We compare the most prominent algorithms on continuous control environments and provide insights on the benefits of regularization. All code is available at https://github.com/Matt00n/PolicyGradientsJax.

Existing approaches for aligning large language models with human preferences face a trade-off that requires a separate reward model (RM) for on-policy learning. In this paper, we present a novel alignment framework, that (1) does on-policy learning and 2) is parameter efficient, as it does not require an additional RM for evaluating the samples for on-policy learning. To this end, we propose Judge-augmented Supervised Fine-Tuning (JSFT) to train a single model to act as both a policy and a judge. Specifically, we view the pairwise judgment task, choosing the better response from a response pair, as a special case of the instruction-following task. The resulting model can judge preferences of on-the-fly responses from current policy initialized from itself. Experimental results show the efficacy of , outperforming baselines in preference benchmarks. We also show that the rejecting sampling by itself can improve performance further without an additional evaluator.

Many practical applications, such as recommender systems and learning to rank, involve solving multiple similar tasks. One example is learning of recommendation policies for users with similar movie preferences, where the users may still rank the individual movies slightly differently. Such tasks can be organized in a hierarchy, where similar tasks are related through a shared structure. In this work, we formulate this problem as a contextual off-policy optimization in a hierarchical graphical model from logged bandit feedback. To solve the problem, we propose a hierarchical off-policy optimization algorithm (HierOPO), which estimates the parameters of the hierarchical model and then acts pessimistically with respect to them. We instantiate HierOPO in linear Gaussian models, for which we also provide an efficient implementation and analysis. We prove per-task bounds on the suboptimality of the learned policies, which show a clear improvement over not using the hierarchical model. We also evaluate the policies empirically. Our theoretical and empirical results show a clear advantage of using the hierarchy over solving each task independently.

Machine learning has successfully framed many sequential decision making problems as either supervised prediction, or optimal decision-making policy identification via reinforcement learning. In data-constrained offline settings, both approaches may fail as they assume fully optimal behavior or rely on exploring alternatives that may not exist. We introduce an inherently different approach that identifies possible "dead-ends" of a state space. We focus on the condition of patients in the intensive care unit, where a "medical dead-end" indicates that a patient will expire, regardless of all potential future treatment sequences. We postulate "treatment security" as avoiding treatments with probability proportional to their chance of leading to dead-ends, present a formal proof, and frame discovery as an RL problem. We then train three independent deep neural models for automated state construction, dead-end discovery and confirmation. Our empirical results discover that dead-ends exist in real clinical data among septic patients, and further reveal gaps between secure treatments and those that were administered.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is computationally efficient but often yields inferior generalization compared to reinforcement learning (RL). This gap is primarily driven by RL's use of on-policy data. We propose a framework to bridge this chasm by enabling On-Policy SFT. We first present \textit{Distribution Discriminant Theory (DDT)}, which explains and quantifies the alignment between data and the model-induced distribution. Leveraging DDT, we introduce two complementary techniques: (i) \textit{In-Distribution Finetuning (IDFT)}, a loss-level method to enhance generalization ability of SFT, and (ii) \textit{Hinted Decoding}, a data-level technique that can re-align the training corpus to the model's distribution. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework achieves generalization performance surpassing prominent offline RL algorithms, including DPO and SimPO, while maintaining the efficiency of an SFT pipeline. The proposed framework thus offers a practical alternative in domains where RL is infeasible. We open-source the code here: https://github.com/zhangmiaosen2000/Towards-On-Policy-SFT

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

Image-based reinforcement learning (RL) faces significant challenges in generalization when the visual environment undergoes substantial changes between training and deployment. Under such circumstances, learned policies may not perform well leading to degraded results. Previous approaches to this problem have largely focused on broadening the training observation distribution, employing techniques like data augmentation and domain randomization. However, given the sequential nature of the RL decision-making problem, it is often the case that residual errors are propagated by the learned policy model and accumulate throughout the trajectory, resulting in highly degraded performance. In this paper, we leverage the observation that predicted rewards under domain shift, even though imperfect, can still be a useful signal to guide fine-tuning. We exploit this property to fine-tune a policy using reward prediction in the target domain. We have found that, even under significant domain shift, the predicted reward can still provide meaningful signal and fine-tuning substantially improves the original policy. Our approach, termed Predicted Reward Fine-tuning (PRFT), improves performance across diverse tasks in both simulated benchmarks and real-world experiments. More information is available at project web page: https://sites.google.com/view/prft.

Large language models (LLMs) struggle with complex, long-horizon reasoning due to instability caused by their frozen policy assumption. Current test-time scaling methods treat execution feedback merely as an external signal for filtering or rewriting trajectories, without internalizing it to improve the underlying reasoning strategy. Inspired by Popper's epistemology of "conjectures and refutations," we argue that intelligence requires real-time evolution of the model's policy through learning from failed attempts. We introduce Policy of Thoughts (PoT), a framework that recasts reasoning as a within-instance online optimization process. PoT first generates diverse candidate solutions via an efficient exploration mechanism, then uses Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to update a transient LoRA adapter based on execution feedback. This closed-loop design enables dynamic, instance-specific refinement of the model's reasoning priors. Experiments show that PoT dramatically boosts performance: a 4B model achieves 49.71% accuracy on LiveCodeBench, outperforming GPT-4o and DeepSeek-V3 despite being over 50 smaller.

We propose a post-training method for lower-resource languages that preserves fluency of language models even when aligned by disfluent reward models. Preference-optimization is now a well-researched topic, but previous work has mostly addressed models for English and Chinese. Lower-resource languages lack both datasets written by native speakers and language models capable of generating fluent synthetic data. Thus, in this work, we focus on developing a fluent preference-aligned language model without any instruction-tuning data in the target language. Our approach uses an on-policy training method, which we compare with two common approaches: supervised finetuning on machine-translated data and multilingual finetuning. We conduct a case study on Norwegian Bokmål and evaluate fluency through native-speaker assessments. The results show that the on-policy aspect is crucial and outperforms the alternatives without relying on any hard-to-obtain data.

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

Macroeconomic data is characterized by a limited number of observations (small T), many time series (big K) but also by featuring temporal dependence. Neural networks, by contrast, are designed for datasets with millions of observations and covariates. In this paper, we develop Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that are well-suited for handling datasets commonly used for macroeconomic analysis in policy institutions. Our approach avoids extensive specification searches through a novel mixture specification for the activation function that appropriately selects the form of nonlinearities. Shrinkage priors are used to prune the network and force irrelevant neurons to zero. To cope with heteroskedasticity, the BNN is augmented with a stochastic volatility model for the error term. We illustrate how the model can be used in a policy institution by first showing that our different BNNs produce precise density forecasts, typically better than those from other machine learning methods. Finally, we showcase how our model can be used to recover nonlinearities in the reaction of macroeconomic aggregates to financial shocks.

Reinforcement learning is a framework for learning to act sequentially in an unknown environment. We propose a natural approach for modeling policy structure in policy gradients. The key idea is to optimize for a subset of future rewards: smaller subsets represent simpler policies, which can be learned more reliably because their empirical gradient estimates are more accurate. Our approach allows for modeling and comparison of different policy classes, including full planning, greedy, K-step lookahead, and segment policies. We evaluate the policies empirically on multiple persona-alignment conversational problems. Different policies excel in different problems, reflecting their different characteristics and highlighting the importance of our studied policy class.

In many real-world settings, agents must learn from an offline dataset gathered by some prior behavior policy. Such a setting naturally leads to distribution shift between the behavior policy and the target policy being trained - requiring policy conservatism to avoid instability and overestimation bias. Autoregressive world models offer a different solution to this by generating synthetic, on-policy experience. However, in practice, model rollouts must be severely truncated to avoid compounding error. As an alternative, we propose policy-guided diffusion. Our method uses diffusion models to generate entire trajectories under the behavior distribution, applying guidance from the target policy to move synthetic experience further on-policy. We show that policy-guided diffusion models a regularized form of the target distribution that balances action likelihood under both the target and behavior policies, leading to plausible trajectories with high target policy probability, while retaining a lower dynamics error than an offline world model baseline. Using synthetic experience from policy-guided diffusion as a drop-in substitute for real data, we demonstrate significant improvements in performance across a range of standard offline reinforcement learning algorithms and environments. Our approach provides an effective alternative to autoregressive offline world models, opening the door to the controllable generation of synthetic training data.

On-policy distillation (OPD), which samples trajectories from the student model and supervises them with a teacher at the token level, avoids relying solely on verifiable terminal rewards and can yield better generalization than off-policy distillation. However, OPD requires expensive on-the-fly sampling of the student policy during training, which substantially increases training cost, especially for long responses. Our initial analysis shows that, during OPD, training signals are often concentrated in the prefix of each output, and that even a short teacher-generated prefix can significantly help the student produce the correct answer. Motivated by these observations, we propose a simple yet effective modification of OPD: we apply the distillation objective only to prefixes of student-generated outputs and terminate each sampling early during distillation. Experiments on a suite of AI-for-Math and out-of-domain benchmarks show that on-policy prefix distillation matches the performance of full OPD while reducing training FLOP by 2x-47x.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Learning a good history representation is one of the core challenges of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. Recent works have shown the advantages of various auxiliary tasks for facilitating representation learning. However, the effectiveness of such auxiliary tasks has not been fully convincing, especially in partially observable environments that require long-term memorization and inference. In this empirical study, we investigate the effectiveness of future prediction for learning the representations of histories, possibly of extensive length, in partially observable environments. We first introduce an approach that decouples the task of learning history representations from policy optimization via future prediction. Then, our main contributions are two-fold: (a) we demonstrate that the performance of reinforcement learning is strongly correlated with the prediction accuracy of future observations in partially observable environments, and (b) our approach can significantly improve the overall end-to-end approach by preventing high-variance noisy signals from reinforcement learning objectives to influence the representation learning. We illustrate our claims on three types of benchmarks that necessitate the ability to process long histories for high returns.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

On-policy distillation (OPD) has recently emerged as an effective post-training paradigm for consolidating the capabilities of specialized expert models into a single student model. Despite its empirical success, the conditions under which OPD yields reliable improvement remain poorly understood. In this work, we identify two fundamental bottlenecks that limit effective OPD: insufficient exploration of informative states and unreliable teacher supervision for student rollouts. Building on this insight, we propose Uni-OPD, a unified OPD framework that generalizes across Large Language Models (LLMs) and Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), centered on a dual-perspective optimization strategy. Specifically, from the student's perspective, we adopt two data balancing strategies to promote exploration of informative student-generated states during training. From the teacher's perspective, we show that reliable supervision hinges on whether aggregated token-level guidance remains order-consistent with the outcome reward. To this end, we develop an outcome-guided margin calibration mechanism to restore order consistency between correct and incorrect trajectories. We conduct extensive experiments on 5 domains and 16 benchmarks covering diverse settings, including single-teacher and multi-teacher distillation across LLMs and MLLMs, strong-to-weak distillation, and cross-modal distillation. Our results verify the effectiveness and versatility of Uni-OPD and provide practical insights into reliable OPD.

Recently, sequence learning methods have been applied to the problem of off-policy Reinforcement Learning, including the seminal work on Decision Transformers, which employs transformers for this task. Since transformers are parameter-heavy, cannot benefit from history longer than a fixed window size, and are not computed using recurrence, we set out to investigate the suitability of the S4 family of models, which are based on state-space layers and have been shown to outperform transformers, especially in modeling long-range dependencies. In this work we present two main algorithms: (i) an off-policy training procedure that works with trajectories, while still maintaining the training efficiency of the S4 model. (ii) An on-policy training procedure that is trained in a recurrent manner, benefits from long-range dependencies, and is based on a novel stable actor-critic mechanism. Our results indicate that our method outperforms multiple variants of decision transformers, as well as the other baseline methods on most tasks, while reducing the latency, number of parameters, and training time by several orders of magnitude, making our approach more suitable for real-world RL.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

This paper describes pi2vec, a method for representing behaviors of black box policies as feature vectors. The policy representations capture how the statistics of foundation model features change in response to the policy behavior in a task agnostic way, and can be trained from offline data, allowing them to be used in offline policy selection. This work provides a key piece of a recipe for fusing together three modern lines of research: Offline policy evaluation as a counterpart to offline RL, foundation models as generic and powerful state representations, and efficient policy selection in resource constrained environments.

We introduce Iterated Bellman Calibration, a simple, model-agnostic, post-hoc procedure for calibrating off-policy value predictions in infinite-horizon Markov decision processes. Bellman calibration requires that states with similar predicted long-term returns exhibit one-step returns consistent with the Bellman equation under the target policy. We adapt classical histogram and isotonic calibration to the dynamic, counterfactual setting by repeatedly regressing fitted Bellman targets onto a model's predictions, using a doubly robust pseudo-outcome to handle off-policy data. This yields a one-dimensional fitted value iteration scheme that can be applied to any value estimator. Our analysis provides finite-sample guarantees for both calibration and prediction under weak assumptions, and critically, without requiring Bellman completeness or realizability.

Off-policy reinforcement learning (RL) has proven to be a powerful framework for guiding agents' actions in environments with stochastic rewards and unknown or noisy state dynamics. In many real-world settings, these agents must operate in multiple environments, each with slightly different dynamics. For example, we may be interested in developing policies to guide medical treatment for patients with and without a given disease, or policies to navigate curriculum design for students with and without a learning disability. Here, we introduce nested policy fitted Q-iteration (NFQI), an RL framework that finds optimal policies in environments that exhibit such a structure. Our approach develops a nested Q-value function that takes advantage of the shared structure between two groups of observations from two separate environments while allowing their policies to be distinct from one another. We find that NFQI yields policies that rely on relevant features and perform at least as well as a policy that does not consider group structure. We demonstrate NFQI's performance using an OpenAI Gym environment and a clinical decision making RL task. Our results suggest that NFQI can develop policies that are better suited to many real-world clinical environments.

Recent advances in world models have shown promise for modeling future dynamics of environmental states, enabling agents to reason and act without accessing real environments. Current methods mainly perform single-step or fixed-horizon rollouts, leaving their potential for complex task planning under-exploited. We propose Imagine-then-Plan (ITP), a unified framework for agent learning via lookahead imagination, where an agent's policy model interacts with the learned world model, yielding multi-step ``imagined'' trajectories. Since the imagination horizon may vary by tasks and stages, we introduce a novel adaptive lookahead mechanism by trading off the ultimate goal and task progress. The resulting imagined trajectories provide rich signals about future consequences, such as achieved progress and potential conflicts, which are fused with current observations, formulating a partially observable and imaginable Markov decision process to guide policy learning. We instantiate ITP with both training-free and reinforcement-trained variants. Extensive experiments across representative agent benchmarks demonstrate that ITP significantly outperforms competitive baselines. Further analyses validate that our adaptive lookahead largely enhances agents' reasoning capability, providing valuable insights into addressing broader, complex tasks.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) methods are emerging as a way to fine-tune diffusion models (DMs) for visual generation. However, commonly used on-policy strategies are limited by the generalization capability of the reward model, while off-policy approaches require large amounts of difficult-to-obtain paired human-annotated data, particularly in visual generation tasks. To address the limitations of both on- and off-policy RLHF, we propose a preference optimization method that aligns DMs with preferences without relying on reward models or paired human-annotated data. Specifically, we introduce a Semi-Policy Preference Optimization (SePPO) method. SePPO leverages previous checkpoints as reference models while using them to generate on-policy reference samples, which replace "losing images" in preference pairs. This approach allows us to optimize using only off-policy "winning images." Furthermore, we design a strategy for reference model selection that expands the exploration in the policy space. Notably, we do not simply treat reference samples as negative examples for learning. Instead, we design an anchor-based criterion to assess whether the reference samples are likely to be winning or losing images, allowing the model to selectively learn from the generated reference samples. This approach mitigates performance degradation caused by the uncertainty in reference sample quality. We validate SePPO across both text-to-image and text-to-video benchmarks. SePPO surpasses all previous approaches on the text-to-image benchmarks and also demonstrates outstanding performance on the text-to-video benchmarks. Code will be released in https://github.com/DwanZhang-AI/SePPO.

Actor-critic algorithms have become a cornerstone in reinforcement learning (RL), leveraging the strengths of both policy-based and value-based methods. Despite recent progress in understanding their statistical efficiency, no existing work has successfully learned an epsilon-optimal policy with a sample complexity of O(1/epsilon^2) trajectories with general function approximation when strategic exploration is necessary. We address this open problem by introducing a novel actor-critic algorithm that attains a sample-complexity of O(dH^5 log|A|/epsilon^2 + d H^4 log|F|/ epsilon^2) trajectories, and accompanying T regret when the Bellman eluder dimension d does not increase with T at more than a log T rate. Here, F is the critic function class, A is the action space, and H is the horizon in the finite horizon MDP setting. Our algorithm integrates optimism, off-policy critic estimation targeting the optimal Q-function, and rare-switching policy resets. We extend this to the setting of Hybrid RL, showing that initializing the critic with offline data yields sample efficiency gains compared to purely offline or online RL. Further, utilizing access to offline data, we provide a non-optimistic provably efficient actor-critic algorithm that only additionally requires N_{off} geq c_{off}^*dH^4/epsilon^2 in exchange for omitting optimism, where c_{off}^* is the single-policy concentrability coefficient and N_{off} is the number of offline samples. This addresses another open problem in the literature. We further provide numerical experiments to support our theoretical findings.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

Offline-to-online reinforcement learning (RL) is a training paradigm that combines pre-training on a pre-collected dataset with fine-tuning in an online environment. However, the incorporation of online fine-tuning can intensify the well-known distributional shift problem. Existing solutions tackle this problem by imposing a policy constraint on the policy improvement objective in both offline and online learning. They typically advocate a single balance between policy improvement and constraints across diverse data collections. This one-size-fits-all manner may not optimally leverage each collected sample due to the significant variation in data quality across different states. To this end, we introduce Family Offline-to-Online RL (FamO2O), a simple yet effective framework that empowers existing algorithms to determine state-adaptive improvement-constraint balances. FamO2O utilizes a universal model to train a family of policies with different improvement/constraint intensities, and a balance model to select a suitable policy for each state. Theoretically, we prove that state-adaptive balances are necessary for achieving a higher policy performance upper bound. Empirically, extensive experiments show that FamO2O offers a statistically significant improvement over various existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance on the D4RL benchmark. Codes are available at https://github.com/LeapLabTHU/FamO2O.

On-policy distillation is pivotal for transferring reasoning capabilities to capacity-constrained models, yet remains prone to instability and negative transfer. We show that on-policy distillation can be interpreted, both theoretically and empirically, as a form of policy optimization, where the teacher-student log-likelihood ratio acts as a token reward. From this insight, we introduce REOPOLD (Relaxed On-Policy Distillation) a framework that stabilizes optimization by relaxing the strict imitation constraints of standard on-policy distillation. Specifically, REOPOLD temperately and selectively leverages rewards from the teacher through mixture-based reward clipping, entropy-based token-level dynamic sampling, and a unified exploration-to-refinement training strategy. Empirically, REOPOLD surpasses its baselines with superior sample efficiency during training and enhanced test-time scaling at inference, across mathematical, visual, and agentic tool-use reasoning tasks. Specifically, REOPOLD outperforms recent RL approaches achieving 6.7~12x greater sample efficiency and enables a 7B student to match a 32B teacher in visual reasoning with a ~3.32x inference speedup.

Many resource management problems require sequential decision-making under uncertainty, where the only uncertainty affecting the decision outcomes are exogenous variables outside the control of the decision-maker. We model these problems as Exo-MDPs (Markov Decision Processes with Exogenous Inputs) and design a class of data-efficient algorithms for them termed Hindsight Learning (HL). Our HL algorithms achieve data efficiency by leveraging a key insight: having samples of the exogenous variables, past decisions can be revisited in hindsight to infer counterfactual consequences that can accelerate policy improvements. We compare HL against classic baselines in the multi-secretary and airline revenue management problems. We also scale our algorithms to a business-critical cloud resource management problem -- allocating Virtual Machines (VMs) to physical machines, and simulate their performance with real datasets from a large public cloud provider. We find that HL algorithms outperform domain-specific heuristics, as well as state-of-the-art reinforcement learning methods.

On-policy distillation (OPD) has emerged as an efficient post-training paradigm for large language models. However, existing studies largely attribute this advantage to denser and more stable supervision, while the parameter-level mechanisms underlying OPD's efficiency remain poorly understood. In this work, we argue that OPD's efficiency stems from a form of ``foresight'': it establishes a stable update trajectory toward the final model early in training. This foresight manifests in two aspects. First, at the Module-Allocation Level, OPD identifies regions with low marginal utility and concentrates updates on modules that are more critical to reasoning. Second, at the Update-Direction Level, OPD exhibits stronger low-rank concentration, with its dominant subspaces aligning closely with the final update subspace early in training. Building on these findings, we propose EffOPD, a plug-and-play acceleration method that speeds up OPD by adaptively selecting an extrapolation step size and moving along the current update direction. EffOPD requires no additional trainable modules or complex hyperparameter tuning, and achieves an average training acceleration of 3times while maintaining comparable final performance. Overall, our findings provide a parameter-dynamics perspective for understanding the efficiency of OPD and offer practical insights for designing more efficient post-training methods for large language models.

The growing disparity between the exponential scaling of computational resources and the finite growth of high-quality text data now constrains conventional scaling approaches for large language models (LLMs). To address this challenge, we introduce Reinforcement Learning on Pre-Training data (RLPT), a new training-time scaling paradigm for optimizing LLMs. In contrast to prior approaches that scale training primarily through supervised learning, RLPT enables the policy to autonomously explore meaningful trajectories to learn from pre-training data and improve its capability through reinforcement learning (RL). While existing RL strategies such as reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) rely on human annotation for reward construction, RLPT eliminates this dependency by deriving reward signals directly from pre-training data. Specifically, it adopts a next-segment reasoning objective, rewarding the policy for accurately predicting subsequent text segments conditioned on the preceding context. This formulation allows RL to be scaled on pre-training data, encouraging the exploration of richer trajectories across broader contexts and thereby fostering more generalizable reasoning skills. Extensive experiments on both general-domain and mathematical reasoning benchmarks across multiple models validate the effectiveness of RLPT. For example, when applied to Qwen3-4B-Base, RLPT yields absolute improvements of 3.0, 5.1, 8.1, 6.0, 6.6, and 5.3 on MMLU, MMLU-Pro, GPQA-Diamond, KOR-Bench, AIME24, and AIME25, respectively. The results further demonstrate favorable scaling behavior, suggesting strong potential for continued gains with more compute. In addition, RLPT provides a solid foundation, extending the reasoning boundaries of LLMs and enhancing RLVR performance.

Training practical agents usually involve offline and online reinforcement learning (RL) to balance the policy's performance and interaction costs. In particular, online fine-tuning has become a commonly used method to correct the erroneous estimates of out-of-distribution data learned in the offline training phase. However, even limited online interactions can be inaccessible or catastrophic for high-stake scenarios like healthcare and autonomous driving. In this work, we introduce an interaction-free training scheme dubbed Offline-with-Action-Preferences (OAP). The main insight is that, compared to online fine-tuning, querying the preferences between pre-collected and learned actions can be equally or even more helpful to the erroneous estimate problem. By adaptively encouraging or suppressing policy constraint according to action preferences, OAP could distinguish overestimation from beneficial policy improvement and thus attains a more accurate evaluation of unseen data. Theoretically, we prove a lower bound of the behavior policy's performance improvement brought by OAP. Moreover, comprehensive experiments on the D4RL benchmark and state-of-the-art algorithms demonstrate that OAP yields higher (29% on average) scores, especially on challenging AntMaze tasks (98% higher).

Policy constraint methods to offline reinforcement learning (RL) typically utilize parameterization or regularization that constrains the policy to perform actions within the support set of the behavior policy. The elaborative designs of parameterization methods usually intrude into the policy networks, which may bring extra inference cost and cannot take full advantage of well-established online methods. Regularization methods reduce the divergence between the learned policy and the behavior policy, which may mismatch the inherent density-based definition of support set thereby failing to avoid the out-of-distribution actions effectively. This paper presents Supported Policy OpTimization (SPOT), which is directly derived from the theoretical formalization of the density-based support constraint. SPOT adopts a VAE-based density estimator to explicitly model the support set of behavior policy and presents a simple but effective density-based regularization term, which can be plugged non-intrusively into off-the-shelf off-policy RL algorithms. SPOT achieves the state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks for offline RL. Benefiting from the pluggable design, offline pretrained models from SPOT can also be applied to perform online fine-tuning seamlessly.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

We study a new paradigm for sequential decision making, called offline Policy Learning from Observation (PLfO). Offline PLfO aims to learn policies using datasets with substandard qualities: 1) only a subset of trajectories is labeled with rewards, 2) labeled trajectories may not contain actions, 3) labeled trajectories may not be of high quality, and 4) the overall data may not have full coverage. Such imperfection is common in real-world learning scenarios, so offline PLfO encompasses many existing offline learning setups, including offline imitation learning (IL), ILfO, and reinforcement learning (RL). In this work, we present a generic approach, called Modality-agnostic Adversarial Hypothesis Adaptation for Learning from Observations (MAHALO), for offline PLfO. Built upon the pessimism concept in offline RL, MAHALO optimizes the policy using a performance lower bound that accounts for uncertainty due to the dataset's insufficient converge. We implement this idea by adversarially training data-consistent critic and reward functions in policy optimization, which forces the learned policy to be robust to the data deficiency. We show that MAHALO consistently outperforms or matches specialized algorithms across a variety of offline PLfO tasks in theory and experiments.

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.