Daily Papers

The ability of deep neural networks to generalise well even when they interpolate their training data has been explained using various "simplicity biases". These theories postulate that neural networks avoid overfitting by first learning simple functions, say a linear classifier, before learning more complex, non-linear functions. Meanwhile, data structure is also recognised as a key ingredient for good generalisation, yet its role in simplicity biases is not yet understood. Here, we show that neural networks trained using stochastic gradient descent initially classify their inputs using lower-order input statistics, like mean and covariance, and exploit higher-order statistics only later during training. We first demonstrate this distributional simplicity bias (DSB) in a solvable model of a neural network trained on synthetic data. We empirically demonstrate DSB in a range of deep convolutional networks and visual transformers trained on CIFAR10, and show that it even holds in networks pre-trained on ImageNet. We discuss the relation of DSB to other simplicity biases and consider its implications for the principle of Gaussian universality in learning.

Recently, unsupervised exemplar-based image-to-image translation, conditioned on a given exemplar without the paired data, has accomplished substantial advancements. In order to transfer the information from an exemplar to an input image, existing methods often use a normalization technique, e.g., adaptive instance normalization, that controls the channel-wise statistics of an input activation map at a particular layer, such as the mean and the variance. Meanwhile, style transfer approaches similar task to image translation by nature, demonstrated superior performance by using the higher-order statistics such as covariance among channels in representing a style. In detail, it works via whitening (given a zero-mean input feature, transforming its covariance matrix into the identity). followed by coloring (changing the covariance matrix of the whitened feature to those of the style feature). However, applying this approach in image translation is computationally intensive and error-prone due to the expensive time complexity and its non-trivial backpropagation. In response, this paper proposes an end-to-end approach tailored for image translation that efficiently approximates this transformation with our novel regularization methods. We further extend our approach to a group-wise form for memory and time efficiency as well as image quality. Extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate that our proposed method is fast, both in training and inference, and highly effective in reflecting the style of an exemplar. Finally, our code is available at https://github.com/WonwoongCho/GDWCT.

We consider N classical particles interacting via the Coulomb potential in spatial dimension d and in the presence of an external trap, at equilibrium at inverse temperature beta. In the large N limit, the particles are confined within a droplet of finite size. We study smooth linear statistics, i.e. the fluctuations of sums of the form {cal L}_N = sum_{i=1}^N f({bf x}_i), where {bf x}_i's are the positions of the particles and where f({bf x}_i) is a sufficiently regular function. There exists at present standard results for the first and second moments of {cal L}_N in the large N limit, as well as associated Central Limit Theorems in general dimension and for a wide class of confining potentials. Here we obtain explicit expressions for the higher order cumulants of {cal L}_N at large N, when the function f({bf x})=f(|{bf x}|) and the confining potential are both rotationnally invariant. A remarkable feature of our results is that these higher cumulants depend only on the value of f'(|{bf x}|) and its higher order derivatives evaluated exactly at the boundary of the droplet, which in this case is a d-dimensional sphere. In the particular two-dimensional case d=2 at the special value beta=2, a connection to the Ginibre ensemble allows us to derive these results in an alternative way using the tools of determinantal point processes. Finally we also obtain the large deviation form of the full probability distribution function of {cal L}_N.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

The quadratic cost of scaled dot-product attention is a central obstacle to scaling autoregressive language models to long contexts. Linear-time attention and State Space Models (SSMs) provide scalable alternatives but are typically restricted to first-order or kernel-based approximations, which can limit expressivity. We introduce Higher-order Linear Attention (HLA), a causal, streaming mechanism that realizes higher interactions via compact prefix sufficient statistics. In the second-order case, HLA maintains a constant-size state and computes per-token outputs in linear time without materializing any n times n matrices. We give closed-form streaming identities, a strictly causal masked variant using two additional summaries, and a chunk-parallel training scheme based on associative scans that reproduces the activations of a serial recurrence exactly. We further outline extensions to third and higher orders. Collectively, these results position HLA as a principled, scalable building block that combines attention-like, data-dependent mixing with the efficiency of modern recurrent architectures. Project Page: https://github.com/yifanzhang-pro/HLA.

We consider an experimentally obtainable SUP operator, defined by using a generalized superposition of products of field annihilation (a) and creation (a^dagger) operators of the type, A = saa^dagger+t{a^dagger}a with s^2+t^2=1. We apply this SUP operator on coherent and thermal quantum states, the states thus produced are referred as SUP-operated coherent state (SOCS) and SUP-operated thermal state (SOTS), respectively. In the present work, we report a comparative study between the higher-order nonclassical properties of SOCS and SOTS. The comparison is performed by using a set of nonclassicality witnesses (e.g., higher-order antiubunching, higher-order sub-Poissonian photon statistics, higher-order squeezing, Agarwal-Tara parameter, Klyshko's condition). The existence of higher-order nonclassicalities in SOCS and SOTS have been investigated for the first time. In view of possible experimental verification of the proposed scheme, we present exact calculations to reveal the effect of non-unit quantum efficiency of quantum detector on higher-order nonclassicalities.

Deep ensemble methods often improve predictive performance, yet they suffer from three practical limitations: redundancy among base models that inflates computational cost and degrades conditioning, unstable weighting under multicollinearity, and overfitting in meta-learning pipelines. We propose a regularized meta-learning framework that addresses these challenges through a four-stage pipeline combining redundancy-aware projection, statistical meta-feature augmentation, and cross-validated regularized meta-models (Ridge, Lasso, and ElasticNet). Our multi-metric de-duplication strategy removes near-collinear predictors using correlation and MSE thresholds (τ_{corr}=0.95), reducing the effective condition number of the meta-design matrix while preserving predictive diversity. Engineered ensemble statistics and interaction terms recover higher-order structure unavailable to raw prediction columns. A final inverse-RMSE blending stage mitigates regularizer-selection variance. On the Playground Series S6E1 benchmark (100K samples, 72 base models), the proposed framework achieves an out-of-fold RMSE of 8.582, improving over simple averaging (8.894) and conventional Ridge stacking (8.627), while matching greedy hill climbing (8.603) with substantially lower runtime (4 times faster). Conditioning analysis shows a 53.7\% reduction in effective matrix condition number after redundancy projection. Comprehensive ablations demonstrate consistent contributions from de-duplication, statistical meta-features, and meta-ensemble blending. These results position regularized meta-learning as a stable and deployment-efficient stacking strategy for high-dimensional ensemble systems.

We construct a geometric framework for cosmological large-scale structure based on optimal transport theory and Wasserstein geometry. In this framework, Ricci curvature on the probability measure space P_2(M) is characterized by the geodesic convexity of entropy and is formulated as the response of probability distributions to optimal transport. We introduce effective Ricci curvatures K_{eff}^{(infty)} and K_{eff}^{(N)} associated with Kullback--Leibler-type and Rényi-type entropies, corresponding respectively to the curvature-dimension conditions CD(K,infty) and CD(K,N). By localizing these curvatures to finite scales using local and reference measures, we construct curvature indicators applicable to observational data. Under a local quadratic approximation, the effective curvature reduces to the Hessian of the log-density, showing that conventional Hessian-based structure classifications arise as a limiting case of the present framework. We further show that effective curvature depends on observational scale and formulate this dependence as a scale flow, distinct from Ricci flow because it describes a change of resolution rather than a time evolution of geometry. Treating curvature as a random field then extends the statistical description of density fields: curvature statistics are given by higher-order weighted integrals of the power spectrum and by spatial derivatives of the correlation function, emphasizing geometric rather than amplitude information. This framework provides a unified connection between optimal transport geometry and cosmological structure analysis, and offers a new perspective on multiscale structure and nonlinear statistics.

We present a speaker-aware approach for simulating multi-speaker conversations that captures temporal consistency and realistic turn-taking dynamics. Prior work typically models aggregate conversational statistics under an independence assumption across speakers and turns. In contrast, our method uses speaker-specific deviation distributions enforcing intra-speaker temporal consistency, while a Markov chain governs turn-taking and a fixed room impulse response preserves spatial realism. We also unify pauses and overlaps into a single gap distribution, modeled with kernel density estimation for smooth continuity. Evaluation on Switchboard using intrinsic metrics - global gap statistics, correlations between consecutive gaps, copula-based higher-order dependencies, turn-taking entropy, and gap survival functions - shows that speaker-aware simulation better aligns with real conversational patterns than the baseline method, capturing fine-grained temporal dependencies and realistic speaker alternation, while revealing open challenges in modeling long-range conversational structure.

Retrieving videos based on semantic motion is a fundamental, yet unsolved, problem. Existing video representation approaches overly rely on static appearance and scene context rather than motion dynamics, a bias inherited from their training data and objectives. Conversely, traditional motion-centric inputs like optical flow lack the semantic grounding needed to understand high-level motion. To demonstrate this inherent bias, we introduce the SimMotion benchmarks, combining controlled synthetic data with a new human-annotated real-world dataset. We show that existing models perform poorly on these benchmarks, often failing to disentangle motion from appearance. To address this gap, we propose SemanticMoments, a simple, training-free method that computes temporal statistics (specifically, higher-order moments) over features from pre-trained semantic models. Across our benchmarks, SemanticMoments consistently outperforms existing RGB, flow, and text-supervised methods. This demonstrates that temporal statistics in a semantic feature space provide a scalable and perceptually grounded foundation for motion-centric video understanding.

The Forward-Forward (FF) algorithm trains networks layer-by-layer using a local "goodness function," yet sum-of-squares (SoS) has remained the only choice studied. We systematically explore the goodness-function design space and identify a unifying principle: the goodness function must be sensitive to the shape of neural activity, not its total energy. This principle is motivated by the observation that deep network activations follow heavy-tailed distributions and that discriminative information is often concentrated in peak activities. We propose two complementary families: selective functions (top-k, entmax-weighted energy) that measure only peak activity, and shape-sensitive functions (excess kurtosis / "burstiness" and higher-order moments) that reward heavy-tailed distributions via scale-invariant statistics. Combined with separate label-feature forwarding (FFCL), controlled experiments across 13 goodness functions, 5 activations, 6 datasets, and three continuous sweeps, each tracing a characteristic inverted-U, yield 89.0% on Fashion-MNIST and 98.2+-0.1% on MNIST (4x2000), a +32.6pp gain over SoS, with consistent improvements across all benchmarks (+72pp USPS, +52pp SVHN). The scale-invariant nature of burstiness makes it particularly robust to magnitude shifts across layers and datasets.

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have recently emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models over discrete domains. MDMs generate sequences in an any-order, parallel fashion, enabling fast inference and strong performance on non-causal tasks. However, a crucial limitation is that they do not support token insertions and are thus limited to fixed-length generations. To this end, we introduce Flexible Masked Diffusion Models (FlexMDMs), a discrete diffusion paradigm that simultaneously can model sequences of flexible length while provably retaining MDMs' flexibility of any-order inference. Grounded in an extension of the stochastic interpolant framework, FlexMDMs generate sequences by inserting mask tokens and unmasking them. Empirically, we show that FlexMDMs match MDMs in perplexity while modeling length statistics with much higher fidelity. On a synthetic maze planning task, they achieve approx 60 % higher success rate than MDM baselines. Finally, we show pretrained MDMs can easily be retrofitted into FlexMDMs: on 16 H100s, it takes only three days to fine-tune LLaDA-8B into a FlexMDM, achieving superior performance on math (GSM8K, 58% to 67%) and code infilling performance (52% to 65%).

Drug-side effect research is vital for understanding adverse reactions arising in complex multi-drug therapies. However, the scarcity of higher-order datasets that capture the combinatorial effects of multiple drugs severely limits progress in this field. Existing resources such as TWOSIDES primarily focus on pairwise interactions. To fill this critical gap, we introduce HODDI, the first Higher-Order Drug-Drug Interaction Dataset, constructed from U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) records spanning the past decade, to advance computational pharmacovigilance. HODDI contains 109,744 records involving 2,506 unique drugs and 4,569 unique side effects, specifically curated to capture multi-drug interactions and their collective impact on adverse effects. Comprehensive statistical analyses demonstrate HODDI's extensive coverage and robust analytical metrics, making it a valuable resource for studying higher-order drug relationships. Evaluating HODDI with multiple models, we found that simple Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) can outperform graph models, while hypergraph models demonstrate superior performance in capturing complex multi-drug interactions, further validating HODDI's effectiveness. Our findings highlight the inherent value of higher-order information in drug-side effect prediction and position HODDI as a benchmark dataset for advancing research in pharmacovigilance, drug safety, and personalized medicine. The dataset and codes are available at https://github.com/TIML-Group/HODDI.

Existing feature filters rely on statistical pair-wise dependence metrics to model feature-target relationships, but this approach may fail when the target depends on higher-order feature interactions rather than individual contributions. We introduce Mutual Information Neural Estimation Regularized Vetting Algorithm (MINERVA), a novel approach to supervised feature selection based on neural estimation of mutual information between features and targets. We paramaterize the approximation of mutual information with neural networks and perform feature selection using a carefully designed loss function augmented with sparsity-inducing regularizers. Our method is implemented in a two-stage process to decouple representation learning from feature selection, ensuring better generalization and a more accurate expression of feature importance. We present examples of ubiquitous dependency structures that are rarely captured in literature and show that our proposed method effectively captures these complex feature-target relationships by evaluating feature subsets as an ensemble. Experimental results on synthetic and real-life fraud datasets demonstrate the efficacy of our method and its ability to perform exact solutions.

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.

Denoisers play a central role in many applications, from noise suppression in low-grade imaging sensors, to empowering score-based generative models. The latter category of methods makes use of Tweedie's formula, which links the posterior mean in Gaussian denoising (\ie the minimum MSE denoiser) with the score of the data distribution. Here, we derive a fundamental relation between the higher-order central moments of the posterior distribution, and the higher-order derivatives of the posterior mean. We harness this result for uncertainty quantification of pre-trained denoisers. Particularly, we show how to efficiently compute the principal components of the posterior distribution for any desired region of an image, as well as to approximate the full marginal distribution along those (or any other) one-dimensional directions. Our method is fast and memory-efficient, as it does not explicitly compute or store the high-order moment tensors and it requires no training or fine tuning of the denoiser. Code and examples are available on the project webpage in https://hilamanor.github.io/GaussianDenoisingPosterior/ .

Causal discovery with latent confounders is an important but challenging task in many scientific areas. Despite the success of some overcomplete independent component analysis (OICA) based methods in certain domains, they are computationally expensive and can easily get stuck into local optima. We notice that interestingly, by making use of higher-order cumulants, there exists a closed-form solution to OICA in specific cases, e.g., when the mixing procedure follows the One-Latent-Component structure. In light of the power of the closed-form solution to OICA corresponding to the One-Latent-Component structure, we formulate a way to estimate the mixing matrix using the higher-order cumulants, and further propose the testable One-Latent-Component condition to identify the latent variables and determine causal orders. By iteratively removing the share identified latent components, we successfully extend the results on the One-Latent-Component structure to the Multi-Latent-Component structure and finally provide a practical and asymptotically correct algorithm to learn the causal structure with latent variables. Experimental results illustrate the asymptotic correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

We propose a new definition of higher-order DisCoCat (categorical compositional distributional) models where the meaning of a word is not a diagram, but a diagram-valued higher-order function. Our models can be seen as a variant of Montague semantics based on a lambda calculus where the primitives act on string diagrams rather than logical formulae. As a special case, we show how to translate from the Lambek calculus into Peirce's system beta for first-order logic. This allows us to give a purely diagrammatic treatment of higher-order and non-linear processes in natural language semantics: adverbs, prepositions, negation and quantifiers. The theoretical definition presented in this article comes with a proof-of-concept implementation in DisCoPy, the Python library for string diagrams.

Recent Pulsar Timing Array datasets provide compelling evidence for a nano-Hertz gravitational-wave background, but robust detection requires characterizing statistical fluctuations of the Hellings-Downs (HD) correlation expected from a finite population of discrete sources. Building on the variance calculation of Allen (2023), we derive the third central moment (skewness) of the HD correlation for a single unpolarized point source and an ensemble of many interfering point sources in the confusion-noise regime. To isolate the intrinsic non-Gaussianity of the background, we extend the pulsar-averaging formalism to third order by introducing a three-point averaged correlation function, which allows us to define the cosmic skewness. We find that the skewness remains non-zero in the large-source-number limit and is controlled by a new geometric three-point function. These results suggest that incorporating higher-order moments could provide additional information on source discreteness beyond standard Gaussian analyses.

Entropy and its various generalizations are important in many fields, including mathematical statistics, communication theory, physics and computer science, for characterizing the amount of information associated with a probability distribution. In this paper we propose goodness-of-fit statistics for the multivariate Student and multivariate Pearson type II distributions, based on the maximum entropy principle and a class of estimators for Renyi entropy based on nearest neighbour distances. We prove the L2-consistency of these statistics using results on the subadditivity of Euclidean functionals on nearest neighbour graphs, and investigate their rate of convergence and asymptotic distribution using Monte Carlo methods.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

The higher-order correlation clustering problem is an expressive model, and recently, local search heuristics have been proposed for several applications. Certifying optimality, however, is NP-hard and practically hampered already by the complexity of the problem statement. Here, we focus on establishing partial optimality conditions for the special case of complete graphs and cubic objective functions. In addition, we define and implement algorithms for testing these conditions and examine their effect numerically, on two datasets.

Denoising diffusion models (DDMs) have emerged as a powerful class of generative models. A forward diffusion process slowly perturbs the data, while a deep model learns to gradually denoise. Synthesis amounts to solving a differential equation (DE) defined by the learnt model. Solving the DE requires slow iterative solvers for high-quality generation. In this work, we propose Higher-Order Denoising Diffusion Solvers (GENIE): Based on truncated Taylor methods, we derive a novel higher-order solver that significantly accelerates synthesis. Our solver relies on higher-order gradients of the perturbed data distribution, that is, higher-order score functions. In practice, only Jacobian-vector products (JVPs) are required and we propose to extract them from the first-order score network via automatic differentiation. We then distill the JVPs into a separate neural network that allows us to efficiently compute the necessary higher-order terms for our novel sampler during synthesis. We only need to train a small additional head on top of the first-order score network. We validate GENIE on multiple image generation benchmarks and demonstrate that GENIE outperforms all previous solvers. Unlike recent methods that fundamentally alter the generation process in DDMs, our GENIE solves the true generative DE and still enables applications such as encoding and guided sampling. Project page and code: https://nv-tlabs.github.io/GENIE.

In the context of C^* dynamical systems, we consider a locally compact group G acting by ^*-automorphisms on a C^* algebra U of observables, and assume a state of U that satisfies the clustering property with respect to a net of group elements of G. That is, the two-point connected correlation function vanishes in the limit on the net, when one observable is translated under the group action. Then we show that all higher order connected correlation functions (Ursell functions, or classical cumulants) and all free correlation functions (free cumulants, from free probability) vanish at the same rate in that limit. Additionally, we show that mean clustering, also called ergodicity, extends to higher order correlations. We then apply those results to equilibrium states of quantum spin lattice models. Under certain assumptions on the range of the interaction, high temperature Gibbs states are known to be exponentially clustering w.r.t. space translations. Combined with the Lieb-Robinson bound, one obtains exponential clustering for space-time translations outside the Lieb-Robinson light-cone. Therefore, by our present results, all the higher order connected and free correlation functions will vanish exponentially under space-time translations outside the Lieb-Robinson light cone, in high temperature Gibbs states. Another consequence is that their long-time averaging over a space-time ray vanishes for almost every ray velocity.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

Studies of density matrices for random quantum states lead naturally to the fixed trace Laguerre ensemble in random matrix theory. Previous studies have uncovered explicit rational function formulas for moments of purity statistic (trace of the squared density matrix), and also a third order linear differential equation satisfied by the eigenvalue density. We further probe the origin of these results from the viewpoint of integrability, which is taken here to mean wider classes of recursions and differential equations, and give extensions. Prominent in our study are first order linear matrix differential equations. One application given is to the derivation of the third order scalar equation for the density. Another is to obtain the explicit rational function formula for the variance of the purity statistic in the β generalised fixed trace Laguerre ensemble. In the original case (β= 2), the purity cumulants are expressed in terms of the large argument expansion of a particular σ-Painlevé IV transcendent. In a different but related direction, the exact computation of the two-point correlation for the fixed determinant circular unitary ensemble SU(N) is given the Appendix.

Large nonlinear recurrent neural networks with random couplings generate high-dimensional, potentially chaotic activity whose structure is of interest in neuroscience and other fields. A fundamental object encoding the collective structure of this activity is the N times N covariance matrix. Prior analytical work on the covariance matrix has been limited to low-dimensional summary statistics. Recent work proposed an ansatz in which, at large N, the covariance matrix for a typical quenched realization takes the same form as that of a linear network with the same couplings, driven by independent noise, with DMFT order parameters setting the transfer function and the noise spectrum. Here, we derive this ansatz using the two-site cavity method, providing two derivations with complementary perspectives. The first decomposes each unit's activity into a linear response to its local field and a nonlinear residual, and shows that cross-covariances between residuals at distinct sites are strongly suppressed, so the residuals act as independent noise driving a linear network. The second derives a self-consistent matrix equation for the covariance matrix. A naive Gaussian closure for the joint statistics of local fields at distinct sites misses cross terms that, in a linear network, would be generated by an external drive. The cavity method recovers these terms from non-Gaussian contributions, revealing an emergent external drive. Higher-order cross-site moments follow a Wick-like decomposition into products of pairwise covariances at leading order, reducing them to the linear-equivalent form. We verify the predictions in simulations. These results extend linear equivalence from feedforward high-dimensional nonlinear systems, where the activations are independent of the weights, to recurrent networks, where the activations are correlated with the couplings that generate them.

Deep Learning using the eponymous deep neural networks (DNNs) has become an attractive approach towards various data-based problems of theoretical physics in the past decade. There has been a clear trend to deeper architectures containing increasingly more powerful and involved layers. Contrarily, Taylor coefficients of DNNs still appear mainly in the light of interpretability studies, where they are computed at most to first order. However, especially in theoretical physics numerous problems benefit from accessing higher orders, as well. This gap motivates a general formulation of neural network (NN) Taylor expansions. Restricting our analysis to multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) and introducing quantities we refer to as propagators and vertices, both depending on the MLP's weights and biases, we establish a graph-theoretical approach. Similarly to Feynman rules in quantum field theories, we can systematically assign diagrams containing propagators and vertices to the corresponding partial derivative. Examining this approach for S-wave scattering lengths of shallow potentials, we observe NNs to adapt their derivatives mainly to the leading order of the target function's Taylor expansion. To circumvent this problem, we propose an iterative NN perturbation theory. During each iteration we eliminate the leading order, such that the next-to-leading order can be faithfully learned during the subsequent iteration. After performing two iterations, we find that the first- and second-order Born terms are correctly adapted during the respective iterations. Finally, we combine both results to find a proxy that acts as a machine-learned second-order Born approximation.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Hypergraph neural networks (HNNs) using neural networks to encode hypergraphs provide a promising way to model higher-order relations in data and further solve relevant prediction tasks built upon such higher-order relations. However, higher-order relations in practice contain complex patterns and are often highly irregular. So, it is often challenging to design an HNN that suffices to express those relations while keeping computational efficiency. Inspired by hypergraph diffusion algorithms, this work proposes a new HNN architecture named ED-HNN, which provably represents any continuous equivariant hypergraph diffusion operators that can model a wide range of higher-order relations. ED-HNN can be implemented efficiently by combining star expansions of hypergraphs with standard message passing neural networks. ED-HNN further shows great superiority in processing heterophilic hypergraphs and constructing deep models. We evaluate ED-HNN for node classification on nine real-world hypergraph datasets. ED-HNN uniformly outperforms the best baselines over these nine datasets and achieves more than 2\%uparrow in prediction accuracy over four datasets therein.

How might one test the hypothesis that networks were sampled from the same distribution? Here, we compare two statistical tests that use subgraph counts to address this question. The first uses the empirical subgraph densities themselves as estimates of those of the underlying distribution. The second test uses a new approach that converts these subgraph densities into estimates of the graph cumulants of the distribution (without any increase in computational complexity). We demonstrate -- via theory, simulation, and application to real data -- the superior statistical power of using graph cumulants. In summary, when analyzing data using subgraph/motif densities, we suggest using the corresponding graph cumulants instead.

Classical estimators for ARIMA parameters (MLE, CSS, OLS) assume Gaussian innovations, an assumption frequently violated in financial and economic data exhibiting asymmetric distributions with heavy tails. We develop and validate the second-order polynomial maximization method (PMM2) for estimating ARIMA(p,d,q) models with non-Gaussian innovations. PMM2 is a semiparametric technique that exploits higher-order moments and cumulants without requiring full distributional specification. Monte Carlo experiments (128,000 simulations) across sample sizes N in {100, 200, 500, 1000} and four innovation distributions demonstrate that PMM2 substantially outperforms classical methods for asymmetric innovations. For ARIMA(1,1,0) with N=500, relative efficiency reaches 1.58--1.90 for Gamma, lognormal, and χ^2(3) innovations (37--47\% variance reduction). Under Gaussian innovations PMM2 matches OLS efficiency, avoiding the precision loss typical of robust estimators. The method delivers major gains for moderate asymmetry (|γ_3| geq 0.5) and N geq 200, with computational costs comparable to MLE. PMM2 provides an effective alternative for time series with asymmetric innovations typical of financial markets, macroeconomic indicators, and industrial measurements. Future extensions include seasonal SARIMA models, GARCH integration, and automatic order selection.

In this paper, we study the problem of inference in high-order structured prediction tasks. In the context of Markov random fields, the goal of a high-order inference task is to maximize a score function on the space of labels, and the score function can be decomposed into sum of unary and high-order potentials. We apply a generative model approach to study the problem of high-order inference, and provide a two-stage convex optimization algorithm for exact label recovery. We also provide a new class of hypergraph structural properties related to hyperedge expansion that drives the success in general high-order inference problems. Finally, we connect the performance of our algorithm and the hyperedge expansion property using a novel hypergraph Cheeger-type inequality.

Aiming at better representing multivariate relationships, this paper investigates a motif dimensional framework for higher-order graph learning. The graph learning effectiveness can be improved through OFFER. The proposed framework mainly aims at accelerating and improving higher-order graph learning results. We apply the acceleration procedure from the dimensional of network motifs. Specifically, the refined degree for nodes and edges are conducted in two stages: (1) employ motif degree of nodes to refine the adjacency matrix of the network; and (2) employ motif degree of edges to refine the transition probability matrix in the learning process. In order to assess the efficiency of the proposed framework, four popular network representation algorithms are modified and examined. By evaluating the performance of OFFER, both link prediction results and clustering results demonstrate that the graph representation learning algorithms enhanced with OFFER consistently outperform the original algorithms with higher efficiency.

Markov categories are a recent categorical approach to the mathematical foundations of probability and statistics. Here, this approach is advanced by stating and proving equivalent conditions for second-order stochastic dominance, a widely used way of comparing probability distributions by their spread. Furthermore, we lay foundation for the theory of comparing statistical experiments within Markov categories by stating and proving the classical Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem. Our version not only offers new insight into the proof, but its abstract nature also makes the result more general, automatically specializing to the standard Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem in measure-theoretic probability as well as a Bayesian version that involves prior-dependent garbling. Along the way, we define and characterize representable Markov categories, within which one can talk about Markov kernels to or from spaces of distributions. We do so by exploring the relation between Markov categories and Kleisli categories of probability monads.

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

Attention operators have been applied on both 1-D data like texts and higher-order data such as images and videos. Use of attention operators on high-order data requires flattening of the spatial or spatial-temporal dimensions into a vector, which is assumed to follow a multivariate normal distribution. This not only incurs excessive requirements on computational resources, but also fails to preserve structures in data. In this work, we propose to avoid flattening by assuming the data follow matrix-variate normal distributions. Based on this new view, we develop Kronecker attention operators (KAOs) that operate on high-order tensor data directly. More importantly, the proposed KAOs lead to dramatic reductions in computational resources. Experimental results show that our methods reduce the amount of required computational resources by a factor of hundreds, with larger factors for higher-dimensional and higher-order data. Results also show that networks with KAOs outperform models without attention, while achieving competitive performance as those with original attention operators.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

It is well known that accurate probabilistic predictors can be trained through empirical risk minimisation with proper scoring rules as loss functions. While such learners capture so-called aleatoric uncertainty of predictions, various machine learning methods have recently been developed with the goal to let the learner also represent its epistemic uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty caused by a lack of knowledge and data. An emerging branch of the literature proposes the use of a second-order learner that provides predictions in terms of distributions on probability distributions. However, recent work has revealed serious theoretical shortcomings for second-order predictors based on loss minimisation. In this paper, we generalise these findings and prove a more fundamental result: There seems to be no loss function that provides an incentive for a second-order learner to faithfully represent its epistemic uncertainty in the same manner as proper scoring rules do for standard (first-order) learners. As a main mathematical tool to prove this result, we introduce the generalised notion of second-order scoring rules.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

Statistical inference for non-stationary data is hindered by the failure of classical central limit theorems (CLTs), not least because there is no fixed Gaussian limit to converge to. To resolve this, we introduce relative weak convergence, an extension of weak convergence that compares a statistic or process to a sequence of evolving processes. Relative weak convergence retains the essential consequences of classical weak convergence and coincides with it under stationarity. Crucially, it applies in general non-stationary settings where classical weak convergence fails. We establish concrete relative CLTs for random vectors and empirical processes, along with sequential, weighted, and bootstrap variants, that parallel the state-of-the-art in stationary settings. Our framework and results offer simple, plug-in replacements for classical CLTs whenever stationarity is untenable, as illustrated by applications in nonparametric trend estimation and hypothesis testing.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

Despite the recent successes of vanilla Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) on many tasks, their foundation on pairwise interaction networks inherently limits their capacity to discern latent higher-order interactions in complex systems. To bridge this capability gap, we propose a novel approach exploiting the rich mathematical theory of simplicial complexes (SCs) - a robust tool for modeling higher-order interactions. Current SC-based GNNs are burdened by high complexity and rigidity, and quantifying higher-order interaction strengths remains challenging. Innovatively, we present a higher-order Flower-Petals (FP) model, incorporating FP Laplacians into SCs. Further, we introduce a Higher-order Graph Convolutional Network (HiGCN) grounded in FP Laplacians, capable of discerning intrinsic features across varying topological scales. By employing learnable graph filters, a parameter group within each FP Laplacian domain, we can identify diverse patterns where the filters' weights serve as a quantifiable measure of higher-order interaction strengths. The theoretical underpinnings of HiGCN's advanced expressiveness are rigorously demonstrated. Additionally, our empirical investigations reveal that the proposed model accomplishes state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on a range of graph tasks and provides a scalable and flexible solution to explore higher-order interactions in graphs.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

The analysis of scientific data and complex multivariate systems requires information quantities that capture relationships among multiple random variables. Recently, new information-theoretic measures have been developed to overcome the shortcomings of classical ones, such as mutual information, that are restricted to considering pairwise interactions. Among them, the concept of information synergy and redundancy is crucial for understanding the high-order dependencies between variables. One of the most prominent and versatile measures based on this concept is O-information, which provides a clear and scalable way to quantify the synergy-redundancy balance in multivariate systems. However, its practical application is limited to simplified cases. In this work, we introduce SOmegaI, which allows for the first time to compute O-information without restrictive assumptions about the system. Our experiments validate our approach on synthetic data, and demonstrate the effectiveness of SOmegaI in the context of a real-world use case.

Higher-order interactions (HOIs) are ubiquitous in real-world complex systems and applications. Investigation of deep learning for HOIs, thus, has become a valuable agenda for the data mining and machine learning communities. As networks of HOIs are expressed mathematically as hypergraphs, hypergraph neural networks (HNNs) have emerged as a powerful tool for representation learning on hypergraphs. Given the emerging trend, we present the first survey dedicated to HNNs, with an in-depth and step-by-step guide. Broadly, the present survey overviews HNN architectures, training strategies, and applications. First, we break existing HNNs down into four design components: (i) input features, (ii) input structures, (iii) message-passing schemes, and (iv) training strategies. Second, we examine how HNNs address and learn HOIs with each of their components. Third, we overview the recent applications of HNNs in recommendation, bioinformatics and medical science, time series analysis, and computer vision. Lastly, we conclude with a discussion on limitations and future directions.

Optimization in machine learning, both theoretical and applied, is presently dominated by first-order gradient methods such as stochastic gradient descent. Second-order optimization methods, that involve second derivatives and/or second order statistics of the data, are far less prevalent despite strong theoretical properties, due to their prohibitive computation, memory and communication costs. In an attempt to bridge this gap between theoretical and practical optimization, we present a scalable implementation of a second-order preconditioned method (concretely, a variant of full-matrix Adagrad), that along with several critical algorithmic and numerical improvements, provides significant convergence and wall-clock time improvements compared to conventional first-order methods on state-of-the-art deep models. Our novel design effectively utilizes the prevalent heterogeneous hardware architecture for training deep models, consisting of a multicore CPU coupled with multiple accelerator units. We demonstrate superior performance compared to state-of-the-art on very large learning tasks such as machine translation with Transformers, language modeling with BERT, click-through rate prediction on Criteo, and image classification on ImageNet with ResNet-50.

This work derives methods for performing nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference for population means under the constraint of local differential privacy (LDP). Given bounded observations (X_1, dots, X_n) with mean mu^star that are privatized into (Z_1, dots, Z_n), we present confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for mu^star when only given access to the privatized data. To achieve this, we introduce a nonparametric and sequentially interactive generalization of Warner's famous ``randomized response'' mechanism, satisfying LDP for arbitrary bounded random variables, and then provide CIs and CSs for their means given access to the resulting privatized observations. For example, our results yield private analogues of Hoeffding's inequality in both fixed-time and time-uniform regimes. We extend these Hoeffding-type CSs to capture time-varying (non-stationary) means, and conclude by illustrating how these methods can be used to conduct private online A/B tests.

Model-agnostic meta-reinforcement learning requires estimating the Hessian matrix of value functions. This is challenging from an implementation perspective, as repeatedly differentiating policy gradient estimates may lead to biased Hessian estimates. In this work, we provide a unifying framework for estimating higher-order derivatives of value functions, based on off-policy evaluation. Our framework interprets a number of prior approaches as special cases and elucidates the bias and variance trade-off of Hessian estimates. This framework also opens the door to a new family of estimates, which can be easily implemented with auto-differentiation libraries, and lead to performance gains in practice.

Optimizing neural networks with loss that contain high-dimensional and high-order differential operators is expensive to evaluate with back-propagation due to O(d^{k}) scaling of the derivative tensor size and the O(2^{k-1}L) scaling in the computation graph, where d is the dimension of the domain, L is the number of ops in the forward computation graph, and k is the derivative order. In previous works, the polynomial scaling in d was addressed by amortizing the computation over the optimization process via randomization. Separately, the exponential scaling in k for univariate functions (d=1) was addressed with high-order auto-differentiation (AD). In this work, we show how to efficiently perform arbitrary contraction of the derivative tensor of arbitrary order for multivariate functions, by properly constructing the input tangents to univariate high-order AD, which can be used to efficiently randomize any differential operator. When applied to Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), our method provides >1000times speed-up and >30times memory reduction over randomization with first-order AD, and we can now solve 1-million-dimensional PDEs in 8 minutes on a single NVIDIA A100 GPU. This work opens the possibility of using high-order differential operators in large-scale problems.

In order to avoid well-know paradoxes associated with self-referential definitions, higher-order dependent type theories stratify the theory using a countably infinite hierarchy of universes (also known as sorts), Type_0 : Type_1 : cdots . Such type systems are called cumulative if for any type A we have that A : Type_{i} implies A : Type_{i+1}. The predicative calculus of inductive constructions (pCIC) which forms the basis of the Coq proof assistant, is one such system. In this paper we present and establish the soundness of the predicative calculus of cumulative inductive constructions (pCuIC) which extends the cumulativity relation to inductive types.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

We consider higher-order linear-chain conditional random fields (HO-LC-CRFs) for sequence modelling, and use sum-product networks (SPNs) for representing higher-order input- and output-dependent factors. SPNs are a recently introduced class of deep models for which exact and efficient inference can be performed. By combining HO-LC-CRFs with SPNs, expressive models over both the output labels and the hidden variables are instantiated while still enabling efficient exact inference. Furthermore, the use of higher-order factors allows us to capture relations of multiple input segments and multiple output labels as often present in real-world data. These relations can not be modelled by the commonly used first-order models and higher-order models with local factors including only a single output label. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed models for sequence labeling. In extensive experiments, we outperform other state-of-the-art methods in optical character recognition and achieve competitive results in phone classification.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

We use automated theorem provers to significantly shorten a formal development in higher order set theory. The development includes many standard theorems such as the fundamental theorem of arithmetic and irrationality of square root of two. Higher order automated theorem provers are particularly useful here, since the underlying framework of higher order set theory coincides with the classical extensional higher order logic of (most) higher order automated theorem provers, so no significant translation or encoding is required. Additionally, many subgoals are first order and so first order automated provers often suffice. We compare the performance of different provers on the subgoals generated from the development. We also discuss possibilities for proof reconstruction, i.e., obtaining formal proof terms when an automated theorem prover claims to have proven the subgoal.

There is a long history, as well as a recent explosion of interest, in statistical and generative modeling approaches based on score functions -- derivatives of the log-likelihood of a distribution. In seminal works, Hyv\"arinen proposed vanilla score matching as a way to learn distributions from data by computing an estimate of the score function of the underlying ground truth, and established connections between this method and established techniques like Contrastive Divergence and Pseudolikelihood estimation. It is by now well-known that vanilla score matching has significant difficulties learning multimodal distributions. Although there are various ways to overcome this difficulty, the following question has remained unanswered -- is there a natural way to sample multimodal distributions using just the vanilla score? Inspired by a long line of related experimental works, we prove that the Langevin diffusion with early stopping, initialized at the empirical distribution, and run on a score function estimated from data successfully generates natural multimodal distributions (mixtures of log-concave distributions).

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

We study the problem of efficiently generating differentially private synthetic data that approximate the statistical properties of an underlying sensitive dataset. In recent years, there has been a growing line of work that approaches this problem using first-order optimization techniques. However, such techniques are restricted to optimizing differentiable objectives only, severely limiting the types of analyses that can be conducted. For example, first-order mechanisms have been primarily successful in approximating statistical queries only in the form of marginals for discrete data domains. In some cases, one can circumvent such issues by relaxing the task's objective to maintain differentiability. However, even when possible, these approaches impose a fundamental limitation in which modifications to the minimization problem become additional sources of error. Therefore, we propose Private-GSD, a private genetic algorithm based on zeroth-order optimization heuristics that do not require modifying the original objective. As a result, it avoids the aforementioned limitations of first-order optimization. We empirically evaluate Private-GSD against baseline algorithms on data derived from the American Community Survey across a variety of statistics--otherwise known as statistical queries--both for discrete and real-valued attributes. We show that Private-GSD outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on non-differential queries while matching accuracy in approximating differentiable ones.

Nonlinear model order reduction has opened the door to parameter optimization and uncertainty quantification in complex physics problems governed by nonlinear equations. In particular, the computational cost of solving these equations can be reduced by means of local reduced-order bases. This article examines the benefits of a physics-informed cluster analysis for the construction of cluster-specific reduced-order bases. We illustrate that the choice of the dissimilarity measure for clustering is fundamental and highly affects the performances of the local reduced-order bases. It is shown that clustering with an angle-based dissimilarity on simulation data efficiently decreases the intra-cluster Kolmogorov N-width. Additionally, an a priori efficiency criterion is introduced to assess the relevance of a ROM-net, a methodology for the reduction of nonlinear physics problems introduced in our previous work in [T. Daniel, F. Casenave, N. Akkari, D. Ryckelynck, Model order reduction assisted by deep neural networks (ROM-net), Advanced Modeling and Simulation in Engineering Sciences 7 (16), 2020]. This criterion also provides engineers with a very practical method for ROM-nets' hyperparameters calibration under constrained computational costs for the training phase. On five different physics problems, our physics-informed clustering strategy significantly outperforms classic strategies for the construction of local reduced-order bases in terms of projection errors.

Most applications of machine learning to classification assume a closed set of balanced classes. This is at odds with the real world, where class occurrence statistics often follow a long-tailed power-law distribution and it is unlikely that all classes are seen in a single sample. Nonparametric Bayesian models naturally capture this phenomenon, but have significant practical barriers to widespread adoption, namely implementation complexity and computational inefficiency. To address this, we present a method for extracting the inductive bias from a nonparametric Bayesian model and transferring it to an artificial neural network. By simulating data with a nonparametric Bayesian prior, we can metalearn a sequence model that performs inference over an unlimited set of classes. After training, this "neural circuit" has distilled the corresponding inductive bias and can successfully perform sequential inference over an open set of classes. Our experimental results show that the metalearned neural circuit achieves comparable or better performance than particle filter-based methods for inference in these models while being faster and simpler to use than methods that explicitly incorporate Bayesian nonparametric inference.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

This paper develops a new mathematical-statistical approach to analyze a class of Flajolet-Martin algorithms (FMa), and provides analytical confidence intervals for the number F0 of distinct elements in a stream, based on Chernoff bounds. The class of FMa has reached a significant popularity in bigdata stream learning, and the attention of the literature has mainly been based on algorithmic aspects, basically complexity optimality, while the statistical analysis of these class of algorithms has been often faced heuristically. The analysis provided here shows deep connections with mathematical special functions and with extreme value theory. The latter connection may help in explaining heuristic considerations, while the first opens many numerical issues, faced at the end of the present paper. Finally, the algorithms are tested on an anonymized real data stream and MonteCarlo simulations are provided to support our analytical choice in this context.

The SIML (abbreviation of Separating Information Maximal Likelihood) method, has been introduced by N. Kunitomo and S. Sato and their collaborators to estimate the integrated volatility of high-frequency data that is assumed to be an It\^o process but with so-called microstructure noise. The SIML estimator turned out to share many properties with the estimator introduced by P. Malliavin and M.E. Mancino. The present paper establishes the consistency and the asymptotic normality under a general sampling scheme but without microstructure noise. Specifically, a fast convergence shown for Malliavin--Mancino estimator by E. Clement and A. Gloter is also established for the SIML estimator.

We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized densities. The KSD is defined by its Stein operator: current operators used in testing apply to fixed-dimensional spaces. As our main contribution, we extend the KSD to the variable-dimension setting by identifying appropriate Stein operators, and propose a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test. As with the previous variants, the proposed KSD does not require the density to be normalized, allowing the evaluation of a large class of models. Our test is shown to perform well in practice on discrete sequential data benchmarks.

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any non-negative integer D for the total number of nestings. Standard Monte Carlo methods typically cost at least O(varepsilon^{-(2+D)}) and sometimes O(varepsilon^{-2(1+D)}) to obtain an estimator up to varepsilon-error. More advanced methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo, currently only exist for D = 1. In this paper, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator called READ, which stands for "Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth.'' Our estimator has an optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2}) for every fixed D under suitable assumptions, and a nearly optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2(1 + delta)}) for any 0 < delta < frac12 under much more general assumptions. Our estimator is also unbiased, which makes it easy to parallelize. The key ingredients in our construction are an observation of the problem's recursive structure and the recursive use of the randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method.

While it is widely known that neural networks are universal approximators of continuous functions, a less known and perhaps more powerful result is that a neural network with a single hidden layer can approximate accurately any nonlinear continuous operator. This universal approximation theorem is suggestive of the potential application of neural networks in learning nonlinear operators from data. However, the theorem guarantees only a small approximation error for a sufficient large network, and does not consider the important optimization and generalization errors. To realize this theorem in practice, we propose deep operator networks (DeepONets) to learn operators accurately and efficiently from a relatively small dataset. A DeepONet consists of two sub-networks, one for encoding the input function at a fixed number of sensors x_i, i=1,dots,m (branch net), and another for encoding the locations for the output functions (trunk net). We perform systematic simulations for identifying two types of operators, i.e., dynamic systems and partial differential equations, and demonstrate that DeepONet significantly reduces the generalization error compared to the fully-connected networks. We also derive theoretically the dependence of the approximation error in terms of the number of sensors (where the input function is defined) as well as the input function type, and we verify the theorem with computational results. More importantly, we observe high-order error convergence in our computational tests, namely polynomial rates (from half order to fourth order) and even exponential convergence with respect to the training dataset size.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

We study the realizability of simplicial complexes with a given pair of integer sequences, representing the node degree distribution and the facet size distribution, respectively. While the s-uniform variant of the problem is NP-complete when s geq 3, we identify two populations of input sequences, most of which can be solved in polynomial time using a recursive algorithm that we contribute. Combining with a sampler for the simplicial configuration model [J.-G. Young et al., Phys. Rev. E 96, 032312 (2017)], we facilitate the efficient sampling of simplicial ensembles from arbitrary degree and size distributions. We find that, contrary to expectations based on dyadic networks, increasing the nodes' degrees reduces the number of loops in simplicial complexes. Our work unveils a fundamental constraint on the degree-size sequences and sheds light on further analysis of higher-order phenomena based on local structures.

Gradients can be employed for sensitivity analysis. Here, we leverage the advantages of the Loss Landscape to comprehend which independent variables impact the dependent variable. We seek to grasp the loss landscape by utilizing first, second, and third derivatives through automatic differentiation. we know that Spearman's rank correlation coefficient can detect the monotonic relationship between two variables. However, I have found that second-order gradients, with certain configurations and parameters, provide information that can be visualized similarly to Spearman results, In this approach, we incorporate a loss function with an activation function, resulting in a non-linear pattern. Each exploration of the loss landscape through retraining yields new valuable information. Furthermore, the first and third derivatives are also beneficial, as they indicate the extent to which independent variables influence the dependent variable.

The quality of training data impacts the performance of pre-trained large language models (LMs). Given a fixed budget of tokens, we study how to best select data that leads to good downstream model performance across tasks. We develop a new framework based on a simple hypothesis: just as humans acquire interdependent skills in a deliberate order, language models also follow a natural order when learning a set of skills from their training data. If such an order exists, it can be utilized for improved understanding of LMs and for data-efficient training. Using this intuition, our framework formalizes the notion of a skill and of an ordered set of skills in terms of the associated data. First, using both synthetic and real data, we demonstrate that these ordered skill sets exist, and that their existence enables more advanced skills to be learned with less data when we train on their prerequisite skills. Second, using our proposed framework, we introduce an online data sampling algorithm, Skill-It, over mixtures of skills for both continual pre-training and fine-tuning regimes, where the objective is to efficiently learn multiple skills in the former and an individual skill in the latter. On the LEGO synthetic in the continual pre-training setting, Skill-It obtains 36.5 points higher accuracy than random sampling. On the Natural Instructions dataset in the fine-tuning setting, Skill-It reduces the validation loss on the target skill by 13.6% versus training on data associated with the target skill itself. We apply our skills framework on the recent RedPajama dataset to continually pre-train a 3B-parameter LM, achieving higher accuracy on the LM Evaluation Harness with 1B tokens than the baseline approach of sampling uniformly over data sources with 3B tokens.

Recent studies of gradient descent with large step sizes have shown that there is often a regime with an initial increase in the largest eigenvalue of the loss Hessian (progressive sharpening), followed by a stabilization of the eigenvalue near the maximum value which allows convergence (edge of stability). These phenomena are intrinsically non-linear and do not happen for models in the constant Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, for which the predictive function is approximately linear in the parameters. As such, we consider the next simplest class of predictive models, namely those that are quadratic in the parameters, which we call second-order regression models. For quadratic objectives in two dimensions, we prove that this second-order regression model exhibits progressive sharpening of the NTK eigenvalue towards a value that differs slightly from the edge of stability, which we explicitly compute. In higher dimensions, the model generically shows similar behavior, even without the specific structure of a neural network, suggesting that progressive sharpening and edge-of-stability behavior aren't unique features of neural networks, and could be a more general property of discrete learning algorithms in high-dimensional non-linear models.

We present a new accelerated stochastic second-order method that is robust to both gradient and Hessian inexactness, which occurs typically in machine learning. We establish theoretical lower bounds and prove that our algorithm achieves optimal convergence in both gradient and Hessian inexactness in this key setting. We further introduce a tensor generalization for stochastic higher-order derivatives. When the oracles are non-stochastic, the proposed tensor algorithm matches the global convergence of Nesterov Accelerated Tensor method. Both algorithms allow for approximate solutions of their auxiliary subproblems with verifiable conditions on the accuracy of the solution.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

This paper considers meta-learning problems, where there is a distribution of tasks, and we would like to obtain an agent that performs well (i.e., learns quickly) when presented with a previously unseen task sampled from this distribution. We analyze a family of algorithms for learning a parameter initialization that can be fine-tuned quickly on a new task, using only first-order derivatives for the meta-learning updates. This family includes and generalizes first-order MAML, an approximation to MAML obtained by ignoring second-order derivatives. It also includes Reptile, a new algorithm that we introduce here, which works by repeatedly sampling a task, training on it, and moving the initialization towards the trained weights on that task. We expand on the results from Finn et al. showing that first-order meta-learning algorithms perform well on some well-established benchmarks for few-shot classification, and we provide theoretical analysis aimed at understanding why these algorithms work.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

This paper is an extended and reworked version of a short course given by the author at ''Uzbekistan-Ukrainian readings in stochastic processes'', Tashkent-Kyiv, 2022, and was prepared for a special issue of ''Theory of stochastic processes'', devoted to publishing lecture notes from the aforementioned workshop. The survey is devoted to operator splitting methods in the abstract formulation and their applications in probability. While the survey is focused on multiplicative methods, the BCH formula is used to discuss exponential splitting methods and a short informal introduction to additive splitting is presented. We introduce frameworks and available deterministic and probabilistic results and concentrate on constructing a wide picture of the field of operator splitting methods, providing a rigorous description in the setting of abstract Cauchy problems and an informal discussion for further and parallel advances. Some limitations and common difficulties are listed, as well as examples of works that provide solutions or hints. No new results are given. The bibliography contains illustrative deterministic examples and a selection of probability-related works.

Graph generation has been dominated by autoregressive models due to their simplicity and effectiveness, despite their sensitivity to ordering. Yet diffusion models have garnered increasing attention, as they offer comparable performance while being permutation-invariant. Current graph diffusion models generate graphs in a one-shot fashion, but they require extra features and thousands of denoising steps to achieve optimal performance. We introduce PARD, a Permutation-invariant Auto Regressive Diffusion model that integrates diffusion models with autoregressive methods. PARD harnesses the effectiveness and efficiency of the autoregressive model while maintaining permutation invariance without ordering sensitivity. Specifically, we show that contrary to sets, elements in a graph are not entirely unordered and there is a unique partial order for nodes and edges. With this partial order, PARD generates a graph in a block-by-block, autoregressive fashion, where each block's probability is conditionally modeled by a shared diffusion model with an equivariant network. To ensure efficiency while being expressive, we further propose a higher-order graph transformer, which integrates transformer with PPGN. Like GPT, we extend the higher-order graph transformer to support parallel training of all blocks. Without any extra features, PARD achieves state-of-the-art performance on molecular and non-molecular datasets, and scales to large datasets like MOSES containing 1.9M molecules.

Language models often show little to no improvement (i.e., "saturation") when trained via vanilla supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on data similar to what they saw in their training set (e.g., MATH). We introduce a new fine-tuning strategy, STAT, to train such a student model by using the metacognition ability of a stronger large language model (LLM) as the teacher. The teacher uses the task dataset to create a list of skills needed for the task, and then labels each data point with its required skills (Didolkar et al., 2024). By monitoring the student's answers, the teacher creates a Missing-Skill-Profile for the student, tracking how often they failed to apply each skill in their responses. We use this idea to build a modified training set in one of two ways. In STAT-Sel, the teacher uses an existing set of training examples but adaptively reweights them according to the Missing-Skill-Profile. In STAT-Syn, the teacher synthesizes additional examples involving missing skills. Across extensive experiments on Llama and Qwen models, our methods yield improvements of up to 7.5% on MATH, whereas SFT provides only limited gains. Furthermore, STAT enhances performance on out-of-distribution benchmarks (e.g., AIME24/25, AMC23, etc.) by an average of 4.6%. Crucially, we find that STAT is complementary to RL via GRPO (Shao et al., 2024): after the model is improved using STAT to address skill gaps, GRPO continues to add further gains. We conclude that skill-targeted adaptive training should broadly improve current training pipelines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/princeton-pli/STAT.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

We give an improved theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling. Under a score estimate with small L^2 error (averaged across timesteps), we provide efficient convergence guarantees for any data distribution with second-order moment, by either employing early stopping or assuming smoothness condition on the score function of the data distribution. Our result does not rely on any log-concavity or functional inequality assumption and has a logarithmic dependence on the smoothness. In particular, we show that under only a finite second moment condition, approximating the following in reverse KL divergence in epsilon-accuracy can be done in tilde Oleft(d log (1/delta){epsilon}right) steps: 1) the variance-delta Gaussian perturbation of any data distribution; 2) data distributions with 1/delta-smooth score functions. Our analysis also provides a quantitative comparison between different discrete approximations and may guide the choice of discretization points in practice.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

Gradient-based meta-learning has proven to be highly effective at learning model initializations, representations, and update rules that allow fast adaptation from a few samples. The core idea behind these approaches is to use fast adaptation and generalization -- two second-order metrics -- as training signals on a meta-training dataset. However, little attention has been given to other possible second-order metrics. In this paper, we investigate a different training signal -- robustness to catastrophic interference -- and demonstrate that representations learned by directing minimizing interference are more conducive to incremental learning than those learned by just maximizing fast adaptation.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

We present a method to integrate Large Language Models (LLMs) and traditional tabular data classification techniques, addressing LLMs challenges like data serialization sensitivity and biases. We introduce two strategies utilizing LLMs for ranking categorical variables and generating priors on correlations between continuous variables and targets, enhancing performance in few-shot scenarios. We focus on Logistic Regression, introducing MonotonicLR that employs a non-linear monotonic function for mapping ordinals to cardinals while preserving LLM-determined orders. Validation against baseline models reveals the superior performance of our approach, especially in low-data scenarios, while remaining interpretable.

Multilevel data are prevalent in many real-world applications. However, it remains an open research problem to identify and justify a class of models that flexibly capture a wide range of multilevel data. Motivated by the versatility of the mixture of experts (MoE) models in fitting regression data, in this article we extend upon the MoE and study a class of mixed MoE (MMoE) models for multilevel data. Under some regularity conditions, we prove that the MMoE is dense in the space of any continuous mixed effects models in the sense of weak convergence. As a result, the MMoE has a potential to accurately resemble almost all characteristics inherited in multilevel data, including the marginal distributions, dependence structures, regression links, random intercepts and random slopes. In a particular case where the multilevel data is hierarchical, we further show that a nested version of the MMoE universally approximates a broad range of dependence structures of the random effects among different factor levels.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable advances in mathematical and logical reasoning, yet statistics, as a distinct and integrative discipline, remains underexplored in benchmarking efforts. To address this gap, we introduce StatEval, the first comprehensive benchmark dedicated to statistics, spanning both breadth and depth across difficulty levels. StatEval consists of 13,817 foundational problems covering undergraduate and graduate curricula, together with 2374 research-level proof tasks extracted from leading journals. To construct the benchmark, we design a scalable multi-agent pipeline with human-in-the-loop validation that automates large-scale problem extraction, rewriting, and quality control, while ensuring academic rigor. We further propose a robust evaluation framework tailored to both computational and proof-based tasks, enabling fine-grained assessment of reasoning ability. Experimental results reveal that while closed-source models such as GPT5-mini achieve below 57\% on research-level problems, with open-source models performing significantly lower. These findings highlight the unique challenges of statistical reasoning and the limitations of current LLMs. We expect StatEval to serve as a rigorous benchmark for advancing statistical intelligence in large language models. All data and code are available on our web platform: https://stateval.github.io/.

Graphical models are widely used in science to represent joint probability distributions with an underlying conditional dependence structure. The inverse problem of learning a discrete graphical model given i.i.d samples from its joint distribution can be solved with near-optimal sample complexity using a convex optimization method known as Generalized Regularized Interaction Screening Estimator (GRISE). But the computational cost of GRISE becomes prohibitive when the energy function of the true graphical model has higher-order terms. We introduce NeurISE, a neural net based algorithm for graphical model learning, to tackle this limitation of GRISE. We use neural nets as function approximators in an Interaction Screening objective function. The optimization of this objective then produces a neural-net representation for the conditionals of the graphical model. NeurISE algorithm is seen to be a better alternative to GRISE when the energy function of the true model has a high order with a high degree of symmetry. In these cases NeurISE is able to find the correct parsimonious representation for the conditionals without being fed any prior information about the true model. NeurISE can also be used to learn the underlying structure of the true model with some simple modifications to its training procedure. In addition, we also show a variant of NeurISE that can be used to learn a neural net representation for the full energy function of the true model.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

Learning to denoise has emerged as a prominent paradigm to design state-of-the-art deep generative models for natural images. How to use it to model the distributions of both continuous real-valued data and categorical data has been well studied in recently proposed diffusion models. However, it is found in this paper to have limited ability in modeling some other types of data, such as count and non-negative continuous data, that are often highly sparse, skewed, heavy-tailed, and/or overdispersed. To this end, we propose learning to jump as a general recipe for generative modeling of various types of data. Using a forward count thinning process to construct learning objectives to train a deep neural network, it employs a reverse count thickening process to iteratively refine its generation through that network. We demonstrate when learning to jump is expected to perform comparably to learning to denoise, and when it is expected to perform better. For example, learning to jump is recommended when the training data is non-negative and exhibits strong sparsity, skewness, heavy-tailedness, and/or heterogeneity.

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

Ordinal regression refers to classifying object instances into ordinal categories. It has been widely studied in many scenarios, such as medical disease grading, movie rating, etc. Known methods focused only on learning inter-class ordinal relationships, but still incur limitations in distinguishing adjacent categories thus far. In this paper, we propose a simple sequence prediction framework for ordinal regression called Ord2Seq, which, for the first time, transforms each ordinal category label into a special label sequence and thus regards an ordinal regression task as a sequence prediction process. In this way, we decompose an ordinal regression task into a series of recursive binary classification steps, so as to subtly distinguish adjacent categories. Comprehensive experiments show the effectiveness of distinguishing adjacent categories for performance improvement and our new approach exceeds state-of-the-art performances in four different scenarios. Codes are available at https://github.com/wjh892521292/Ord2Seq.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Zeroth-order optimization addresses problems where gradient information is inaccessible or impractical to compute. While most existing methods rely on first-order approximations, incorporating second-order (curvature) information can, in principle, significantly accelerate convergence. However, the high cost of function evaluations required to estimate Hessian matrices often limits practical applicability. We present the subspace-based approximate Hessian (ZO-SAH) method, a zeroth-order optimization algorithm that mitigates these costs by focusing on randomly selected two-dimensional subspaces. Within each subspace, ZO-SAH estimates the Hessian by fitting a quadratic polynomial to the objective function and extracting its second-order coefficients. To further reduce function-query costs, ZO-SAH employs a periodic subspace-switching strategy that reuses function evaluations across optimization steps. Experiments on eight benchmark datasets, including logistic regression and deep neural network training tasks, demonstrate that ZO-SAH achieves significantly faster convergence than existing zeroth-order methods.

Permutation Entropy and statistiCal Complexity Analysis for astRophYsics (PECCARY) is a computationally inexpensive, statistical method by which any time-series can be characterized as predominantly regular, complex, or stochastic. Elements of the PECCARY method have been used in a variety of physical, biological, economic, and mathematical scenarios, but have not yet gained traction in the astrophysical community. This study introduces the PECCARY technique with the specific aims to motivate its use in and optimize it for the analysis of astrophysical orbital systems. PECCARY works by decomposing a time-dependent measure, such as the x-coordinate or orbital angular momentum time-series, into ordinal patterns. Due to its unique approach and statistical nature, PECCARY is well-suited for detecting preferred and forbidden patterns (a signature of chaos), even when the chaotic behavior is short-lived or when working with a relatively short duration time-series or small sets of time-series data. A variety of examples are used to demonstrate the capabilities of PECCARY. These include mathematical examples (sine waves, varieties of noise, sums of sine waves, well-known chaotic functions), a double pendulum system, and astrophysical tracer particle simulations with potentials of varying intricacies. Since the adopted timescale used to diagnose a given time-series can affect the outcome, a method is presented to identify an ideal sampling scheme, constrained by the overall duration and the natural timescale of the system. The accompanying PECCARY Python package and its usage are discussed.

Autoregressive patch-based image generation has recently shown competitive results in terms of image quality and scalability. It can also be easily integrated and scaled within Vision-Language models. Nevertheless, autoregressive models require a defined order for patch generation. While a natural order based on the dictation of the words makes sense for text generation, there is no inherent generation order that exists for image generation. Traditionally, a raster-scan order (from top-left to bottom-right) guides autoregressive image generation models. In this paper, we argue that this order is suboptimal, as it fails to respect the causality of the image content: for instance, when conditioned on a visual description of a sunset, an autoregressive model may generate clouds before the sun, even though the color of clouds should depend on the color of the sun and not the inverse. In this work, we show that first by training a model to generate patches in any-given-order, we can infer both the content and the location (order) of each patch during generation. Secondly, we use these extracted orders to finetune the any-given-order model to produce better-quality images. Through our experiments, we show on two datasets that this new generation method produces better images than the traditional raster-scan approach, with similar training costs and no extra annotations.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where obtaining predictive distributions over numerical targets requires repeated sampling, leading to high computational cost and inference time. In this work, we investigate whether distributional properties of LLM predictions can be recovered without explicit autoregressive generation. To this end, we study a set of regression probes trained to predict statistical functionals (e.g., mean, median, quantiles) of the LLM's numerical output distribution directly from its internal representations. Our results suggest that LLM embeddings carry informative signals about summary statistics of their predictive distributions, including the numerical uncertainty. This investigation opens up new questions about how LLMs internally encode uncertainty in numerical tasks, and about the feasibility of lightweight alternatives to sampling-based approaches for uncertainty-aware numerical predictions.

As the issue of robustness in AI systems becomes vital, statistical learning techniques that are reliable even in presence of partly contaminated data have to be developed. Preference data, in the form of (complete) rankings in the simplest situations, are no exception and the demand for appropriate concepts and tools is all the more pressing given that technologies fed by or producing this type of data (e.g. search engines, recommending systems) are now massively deployed. However, the lack of vector space structure for the set of rankings (i.e. the symmetric group S_n) and the complex nature of statistics considered in ranking data analysis make the formulation of robustness objectives in this domain challenging. In this paper, we introduce notions of robustness, together with dedicated statistical methods, for Consensus Ranking the flagship problem in ranking data analysis, aiming at summarizing a probability distribution on S_n by a median ranking. Precisely, we propose specific extensions of the popular concept of breakdown point, tailored to consensus ranking, and address the related computational issues. Beyond the theoretical contributions, the relevance of the approach proposed is supported by an experimental study.

We present the first comprehensive Lean 4 formalization of statistical learning theory (SLT) grounded in empirical process theory. Our end-to-end formal infrastructure implement the missing contents in latest Lean 4 Mathlib library, including a complete development of Gaussian Lipschitz concentration, the first formalization of Dudley's entropy integral theorem for sub-Gaussian processes, and an application to least-squares (sparse) regression with a sharp rate. The project was carried out using a human-AI collaborative workflow, in which humans design proof strategies and AI agents execute tactical proof construction, leading to the human-verified Lean 4 toolbox for SLT. Beyond implementation, the formalization process exposes and resolves implicit assumptions and missing details in standard SLT textbooks, enforcing a granular, line-by-line understanding of the theory. This work establishes a reusable formal foundation and opens the door for future developments in machine learning theory. The code is available at https://github.com/YuanheZ/lean-stat-learning-theory

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the exact log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated using the Fr\'{e}chet ChemNet Distance (FCD).

The traditional kernel density estimator of an unknown density is by construction completely nonparametric, in the sense that it has no preferences and will work reasonably well for all shapes. The present paper develops a class of semiparametric methods that are designed to work better than the kernel estimator in a broad nonparametric neighbourhood of a given parametric class of densities, for example the normal, while not losing much in precision when the true density is far from the parametric class. The idea is to multiply an initial parametric density estimate with a kernel type estimate of the necessary correction factor. This works well in cases where the correction factor function is less rough than the original density itself. Extensive comparisons with the kernel estimator are carried out, including exact analysis for the class of all normal mixtures. The new method, with a normal start, wins quite often, even in many cases where the true density is far from normal. Procedures for choosing the smoothing parameter of the estimator are also discussed. The new estimator should be particularly useful in higher dimensions, where the usual nonparametric methods have problems. The idea is also spelled out for nonparametric regression.

Despite the remarkable progress of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), they continue to face challenges in achieving competitive performance on ordinal regression (OR; a.k.a. ordinal classification). To address this issue, this paper presents OrderChain, a novel and general prompting paradigm that improves the ordinal understanding ability of MLLMs by specificity and commonality modeling. Specifically, our OrderChain consists of a set of task-aware prompts to facilitate the specificity modeling of diverse OR tasks and a new range optimization Chain-of-Thought (RO-CoT), which learns a commonality way of thinking about OR tasks by uniformly decomposing them into multiple small-range optimization subtasks. Further, we propose a category recursive division (CRD) method to generate instruction candidate category prompts to support RO-CoT automatic optimization. Comprehensive experiments show that LLaVA model with our OrderChain improves baseline LLaVA significantly on diverse OR datasets, e.g., from 47.5\% to 93.2\% accuracy on the Adience dataset for age estimation, and from 30.0\% to 85.7\% accuracy on the Diabetic Retinopathy dataset. Notably, LLaVA with our OrderChain also remarkably outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 27% on accuracy and 0.24 on MAE on the Adience dataset. To our best knowledge, our OrderChain is the first work that augments MLLMs for OR tasks, and the effectiveness is witnessed across a spectrum of OR datasets. Project Page: https://order-chain.github.io/.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

The Functional Machine Calculus (Heijltjes 2022) is a new approach to unifying the imperative and functional programming paradigms. It extends the lambda-calculus, preserving the key features of confluent reduction and typed termination, to embed computational effects, evaluation strategies, and control flow operations. The first instalment modelled sequential higher-order computation with global store, input/output, probabilities, and non-determinism, and embedded both the call-by-name and call-by-value lambda-calculus, as well as Moggi's computational metalanguage and Levy's call-by-push-value. The present paper extends the calculus from sequential to branching and looping control flow. This allows the faithful embedding of a minimal but complete imperative language, including conditionals, exception handling, and iteration, as well as constants and algebraic data types. The calculus is defined through a simple operational semantics, extending the (simplified) Krivine machine for the lambda-calculus with multiple operand stacks to model effects and a continuation stack to model sequential, branching, and looping computation. It features a confluent reduction relation and a system of simple types that guarantees termination of the machine and strong normalization of reduction (in the absence of iteration). These properties carry over to the embedded imperative language, providing a unified functional-imperative model of computation that supports simple types, a direct and intuitive operational semantics, and a confluent reduction semantics.

Popular machine learning approaches forgo second-order information due to the difficulty of computing curvature in high dimensions. We present FOSI, a novel meta-algorithm that improves the performance of any base first-order optimizer by efficiently incorporating second-order information during the optimization process. In each iteration, FOSI implicitly splits the function into two quadratic functions defined on orthogonal subspaces, then uses a second-order method to minimize the first, and the base optimizer to minimize the other. We formally analyze FOSI's convergence and the conditions under which it improves a base optimizer. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that FOSI improves the convergence rate and optimization time of first-order methods such as Heavy-Ball and Adam, and outperforms second-order methods (K-FAC and L-BFGS).

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

We give a geometry of interaction model for a typed lambda-calculus endowed with operators for sampling from a continuous uniform distribution and soft conditioning, namely a paradigmatic calculus for higher-order Bayesian programming. The model is based on the category of measurable spaces and partial measurable functions, and is proved adequate with respect to both a distribution-based and a sampling based operational semantics.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

Generative Artificial Intelligence is emerging as an important technology, promising to be transformative in many areas. At the same time, generative AI techniques are based on sampling from probabilistic models, and by default, they come with no guarantees about correctness, safety, fairness, or other properties. Statistical methods offer a promising potential approach to improve the reliability of generative AI techniques. In addition, statistical methods are also promising for improving the quality and efficiency of AI evaluation, as well as for designing interventions and experiments in AI. In this paper, we review some of the existing work on these topics, explaining both the general statistical techniques used, as well as their applications to generative AI. We also discuss limitations and potential future directions.

Iterative optimization is central to modern artificial intelligence (AI) and provides a crucial framework for understanding adaptive systems. This review provides a unified perspective on this subject, bridging classic theory with neural network training and biological learning. Although gradient-based methods, powered by the efficient but biologically implausible backpropagation (BP), dominate machine learning, their computational demands can hinder scalability in high-dimensional settings. In contrast, derivative-free or zeroth-order (ZO) optimization feature computationally lighter approaches that rely only on function evaluations and randomness. While generally less sample efficient, recent breakthroughs demonstrate that modern ZO methods can effectively approximate gradients and achieve performance competitive with BP in neural network models. This ZO paradigm is also particularly relevant for biology. Its core principles of random exploration (probing) and feedback-guided adaptation (reinforcing) parallel key mechanisms of biological learning, offering a mathematically principled perspective on how the brain learns. In this review, we begin by categorizing optimization approaches based on the order of derivative information they utilize, ranging from first-, second-, and higher-order gradient-based to ZO methods. We then explore how these methods are adapted to the unique challenges of neural network training and the resulting learning dynamics. Finally, we build upon these insights to view biological learning through an optimization lens, arguing that a ZO paradigm leverages the brain's intrinsic noise as a computational resource. This framework not only illuminates our understanding of natural intelligence but also holds vast implications for neuromorphic hardware, helping us design fast and energy-efficient AI systems that exploit intrinsic hardware noise.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.