Daily Papers

With climate change intensifying fire weather conditions globally, accurate seasonal wildfire forecasting has become critical for disaster preparedness and ecosystem management. We introduce FireCastNet, a novel deep learning architecture that combines 3D convolutional encoding with GraphCast-based Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to model complex spatio-temporal dependencies for global wildfire prediction. Our approach leverages the SeasFire dataset, a comprehensive multivariate Earth system datacube containing climate, vegetation, and human-related variables, to forecast burned area patterns up to six months in advance. FireCastNet treats the Earth as an interconnected graph, enabling it to capture both local fire dynamics and long-range teleconnections that influence wildfire behavior across different spatial and temporal scales. Through comprehensive benchmarking against state-of-the-art models including GRU, Conv-GRU, Conv-LSTM, U-TAE, and TeleViT, we demonstrate that FireCastNet achieves superior performance in global burned area forecasting, with particularly strong results in fire-prone regions such as Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Our analysis reveals that longer input time-series significantly improve prediction robustness, while spatial context integration enhances model performance across extended forecasting horizons. Additionally, we implement local area modeling techniques that provide enhanced spatial resolution and accuracy for region-specific predictions. These findings highlight the importance of modeling Earth system interactions for long-term wildfire prediction.

Wildfires are increasingly exacerbated as a result of climate change, necessitating advanced proactive measures for effective mitigation. It is important to forecast wildfires weeks and months in advance to plan forest fuel management, resource procurement and allocation. To achieve such accurate long-term forecasts at a global scale, it is crucial to employ models that account for the Earth system's inherent spatio-temporal interactions, such as memory effects and teleconnections. We propose a teleconnection-driven vision transformer (TeleViT), capable of treating the Earth as one interconnected system, integrating fine-grained local-scale inputs with global-scale inputs, such as climate indices and coarse-grained global variables. Through comprehensive experimentation, we demonstrate the superiority of TeleViT in accurately predicting global burned area patterns for various forecasting windows, up to four months in advance. The gain is especially pronounced in larger forecasting windows, demonstrating the improved ability of deep learning models that exploit teleconnections to capture Earth system dynamics. Code available at https://github.com/Orion-Ai-Lab/TeleViT.

Wildfire burned-area mapping is essential for damage assessment, emissions modeling, and understanding fire-climate interactions across diverse ecological regions. Recent geospatial foundation models provide strong general-purpose representations for satellite imagery, yet there is still no clear understanding of how to efficiently adapt these models for downstream Earth observation tasks, particularly under geographic and temporal domain shift. This study evaluates three state-of-the-art Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs) - Terramind, DINOv3, and Prithvi-v2 - for burned-area mapping across the United States and Canada using Sentinel-2 data. Leveraging 3,820 wildfire events from 2017-2023, we conduct spatial and temporal generalization tests across diverse biomes. We systematically compare full fine-tuning, decoder-only fine-tuning, and Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) for adapting each model. Across all experiments, LoRA provides the strongest cross-domain generalization while updating less than 1% of parameters, demonstrating a favorable trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. Prithvi-v2 with LoRA achieves the highest overall accuracy and the largest improvement compared to full fine-tuning. These findings indicate that geospatial foundation models, when adapted using lightweight parameter-efficient methods such as LoRA, offer a robust and scalable solution for large-scale burned-area mapping. Code is available at https://github.com/alishibli97/wildfire-lora-gfm.

In recent years, wildfires have posed a significant challenge due to their increasing frequency and severity. For this reason, accurate delineation of burned areas is crucial for environmental monitoring and post-fire assessment. However, traditional approaches relying on binary segmentation models often struggle to achieve robust and accurate results, especially when trained from scratch, due to limited resources and the inherent imbalance of this segmentation task. We propose to address these limitations in two ways: first, we construct an ad-hoc dataset to cope with the limited resources, combining information from Sentinel-2 feeds with Copernicus activations and other data sources. In this dataset, we provide annotations for multiple tasks, including burned area delineation and land cover segmentation. Second, we propose a multitask learning framework that incorporates land cover classification as an auxiliary task to enhance the robustness and performance of the burned area segmentation models. We compare the performance of different models, including UPerNet and SegFormer, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach in comparison to standard binary segmentation.

Predicting wildfire spread is critical for land management and disaster preparedness. To this end, we present `Next Day Wildfire Spread,' a curated, large-scale, multivariate data set of historical wildfires aggregating nearly a decade of remote-sensing data across the United States. In contrast to existing fire data sets based on Earth observation satellites, our data set combines 2D fire data with multiple explanatory variables (e.g., topography, vegetation, weather, drought index, population density) aligned over 2D regions, providing a feature-rich data set for machine learning. To demonstrate the usefulness of this data set, we implement a neural network that takes advantage of the spatial information of this data to predict wildfire spread. We compare the performance of the neural network with other machine learning models: logistic regression and random forest. This data set can be used as a benchmark for developing wildfire propagation models based on remote sensing data for a lead time of one day.

Forest wildfires represent one of the catastrophic events that, over the last decades, caused huge environmental and humanitarian damages. In addition to a significant amount of carbon dioxide emission, they are a source of risk to society in both short-term (e.g., temporary city evacuation due to fire) and long-term (e.g., higher risks of landslides) cases. Consequently, the availability of tools to support local authorities in automatically identifying burned areas plays an important role in the continuous monitoring requirement to alleviate the aftereffects of such catastrophic events. The great availability of satellite acquisitions coupled with computer vision techniques represents an important step in developing such tools. This paper introduces a novel open dataset that tackles the burned area delineation problem, a binary segmentation problem applied to satellite imagery. The presented resource consists of pre- and post-fire Sentinel-2 L2A acquisitions of California forest fires that took place starting in 2015. Raster annotations were generated from the data released by California's Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Moreover, in conjunction with the dataset, we release three different baselines based on spectral indexes analyses, SegFormer, and U-Net models.

Canada experienced in 2023 one of the most severe wildfire seasons in recent history, causing damage across ecosystems, destroying communities, and emitting large quantities of CO2. This extreme wildfire season is symptomatic of a climate-change-induced increase in the length and severity of the fire season that affects the boreal ecosystem. Therefore, it is critical to empower wildfire management in boreal communities with better mitigation solutions. Wildfire probability maps represent an important tool for understanding the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and the potential severity of future wildfires. The massive increase in the availability of Earth observation data has enabled the development of deep learning-based wildfire forecasting models, aiming at providing precise wildfire probability maps at different spatial and temporal scales. A main limitation of such methods is their reliance on coarse-resolution environmental drivers and satellite products, leading to wildfire occurrence prediction of reduced resolution, typically around sim 0.1{\deg}. This paper presents a benchmark dataset: CanadaFireSat, and baseline methods for high-resolution: 100 m wildfire forecasting across Canada, leveraging multi-modal data from high-resolution multi-spectral satellite images (Sentinel-2 L1C), mid-resolution satellite products (MODIS), and environmental factors (ERA5 reanalysis data). Our experiments consider two major deep learning architectures. We observe that using multi-modal temporal inputs outperforms single-modal temporal inputs across all metrics, achieving a peak performance of 60.3% in F1 score for the 2023 wildfire season, a season never seen during model training. This demonstrates the potential of multi-modal deep learning models for wildfire forecasting at high-resolution and continental scale.

Over the last few decades, deforestation and climate change have caused increasing number of forest fires. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia has been the most affected country by tropical peatland forest fires. These fires have a significant impact on the climate resulting in extensive health, social and economic issues. Existing forest fire prediction systems, such as the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, are based on handcrafted features and require installation and maintenance of expensive instruments on the ground, which can be a challenge for developing countries such as Indonesia. We propose a novel, cost-effective, machine-learning based approach that uses remote sensing data to predict forest fires in Indonesia. Our prediction model achieves more than 0.81 area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, performing significantly better than the baseline approach which never exceeds 0.70 area under ROC curve on the same tasks. Our model's performance remained above 0.81 area under ROC curve even when evaluated with reduced data. The results support our claim that machine-learning based approaches can lead to reliable and cost-effective forest fire prediction systems.

Recent research has demonstrated the potential of deep neural networks (DNNs) to accurately predict wildfire spread on a given day based upon high-dimensional explanatory data from a single preceding day, or from a time series of T preceding days. For the first time, we investigate a large number of existing data-driven wildfire modeling strategies under controlled conditions, revealing the best modeling strategies and resulting in models that achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) accuracy for both single-day and multi-day input scenarios, as evaluated on a large public benchmark for next-day wildfire spread, termed the WildfireSpreadTS (WSTS) benchmark. Consistent with prior work, we found that models using time-series input obtained the best overall accuracy, suggesting this is an important future area of research. Furthermore, we create a new benchmark, WSTS+, by incorporating four additional years of historical wildfire data into the WSTS benchmark. Our benchmark doubles the number of unique years of historical data, expands its geographic scope, and, to our knowledge, represents the largest public benchmark for time-series-based wildfire spread prediction.

Bushfires are among the most destructive natural hazards in Australia, causing significant ecological, economic, and social damage. Accurate prediction of bushfire intensity is therefore essential for effective disaster preparedness and response. This study examines the predictive capability of spatio-temporal environmental data for identifying high-risk bushfire zones across Australia. We integrated historical fire events from NASA FIRMS, daily meteorological observations from Meteostat, and vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Google Earth Engine for the period 2015-2023. After harmonizing the datasets using spatial and temporal joins, we evaluated several machine learning models, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and an ensemble classifier. Under a binary classification framework distinguishing 'low' and 'high' fire risk, the ensemble approach achieved an accuracy of 87%. The results demonstrate that combining multi-source environmental features with advanced machine learning techniques can produce reliable bushfire intensity predictions, supporting more informed and timely disaster management.

Predicting wildfire risk is a reasoning-intensive spatial problem that requires the integration of visual, climatic, and geographic factors to infer continuous risk maps. Existing methods lack the causal reasoning and multimodal understanding required for reliable generalization. We introduce FireScope-Bench, a large-scale dataset and benchmark that couples Sentinel-2 imagery and climate data with expert-defined risk rasters across the USA, and real wildfire events in Europe for cross-continental evaluation. Building on this dataset, we propose FireScope, a VLM-based reasoning-to-generation framework that learns from both reinforcement learning and visual supervision to predict risk rasters with complementary reasoning traces. When trained in the USA and tested in Europe, FireScope achieves substantial performance gains, while expert feedback and automated analysis confirm that its reasoning traces are faithful and semantically meaningful. Our findings demonstrate that reasoning can ground raster prediction models, improving both generalization and interpretability. To our knowledge, this is the first framework to (1) demonstrate that language-based reasoning can improve generalization in visual generation, (2) propose a high-resolution wildfire risk model that can be applied across continents, and (3) enable systematic studies of robust cross-continental generalization for multimodal fire risk models. We believe that FireScope-Bench has the potential to serve as a foundation for advancing reasoning-driven, interpretable and generalizable spatial modeling. Data and source code will be made publicly available.

With the global refugee crisis at a historic high, there is a growing need to assess the impact of refugee settlements on their hosting countries and surrounding environments. Because fires are an important land management practice in smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, burned area (BA) mappings can help provide information about the impacts of land management practices on local environments. However, a lack of BA ground-truth data in much of sub-Saharan Africa limits the use of highly scalable deep learning (DL) techniques for such BA mappings. In this work, we propose a scalable transfer learning approach to study BA dynamics in areas with little to no ground-truth data such as the West Nile region in Northern Uganda. We train a deep learning model on BA ground-truth data in Portugal and propose the application of that model on refugee-hosting districts in West Nile between 2015 and 2020. By comparing the district-level BA dynamic with the wider West Nile region, we aim to add understanding of the land management impacts of refugee settlements on their surrounding environments.

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In applications such as wildfires, crimes, and traffic jams, timely forecasting are vital for safeguarding human life and property. Consequently, finding a balance between accuracy and timeliness is crucial. In this paper, we propose an early spatio-temporal forecasting model based on Multi-Objective reinforcement learning that can either implement an optimal policy given a preference or infer the preference based on a small number of samples. The model addresses two primary challenges: 1) enhancing the accuracy of early forecasting and 2) providing the optimal policy for determining the most suitable prediction time for each area. Our method demonstrates superior performance on three large-scale real-world datasets, surpassing existing methods in early spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

Climate change is expected to intensify and increase extreme events in the weather cycle. Since this has a significant impact on various sectors of our life, recent works are concerned with identifying and predicting such extreme events from Earth observations. With respect to wildfire danger forecasting, previous deep learning approaches duplicate static variables along the time dimension and neglect the intrinsic differences between static and dynamic variables. Furthermore, most existing multi-branch architectures lose the interconnections between the branches during the feature learning stage. To address these issues, this paper proposes a 2D/3D two-branch convolutional neural network (CNN) with a Location-aware Adaptive Normalization layer (LOAN). Using LOAN as a building block, we can modulate the dynamic features conditional on their geographical locations. Thus, our approach considers feature properties as a unified yet compound 2D/3D model. Besides, we propose using the sinusoidal-based encoding of the day of the year to provide the model with explicit temporal information about the target day within the year. Our experimental results show a better performance of our approach than other baselines on the challenging FireCube dataset. The results show that location-aware adaptive feature normalization is a promising technique to learn the relation between dynamic variables and their geographic locations, which is highly relevant for areas where remote sensing data builds the basis for analysis. The source code is available at https://github.com/HakamShams/LOAN.

Rapid detection and well-timed intervention are essential to mitigate the impacts of wildfires. Leveraging remote sensed data from satellite networks and advanced AI models to automatically detect hotspots (i.e., thermal anomalies caused by active fires) is an effective way to build wildfire monitoring systems. In this work, we propose a novel dataset containing time series of remotely sensed data related to European fire events and a Self-Supervised Learning (SSL)-based model able to analyse multi-temporal data and identify hotspots in potentially near real time. We train and evaluate the performance of our model using our dataset and Thraws, a dataset of thermal anomalies including several fire events, obtaining an F1 score of 63.58.

Accurate long horizon forecasting of particulate matter (PM) concentration fields is essential for operational public health decisions. However, achieving reliable forecasts remains challenging in regions with complex terrain and strong atmospheric dynamics such as East Asia. While foundation models such as Aurora offer global generality, they often miss region-specific dynamics and rely on non-real-time inputs, limiting their practical utility for localized warning systems. To address this gap, we construct and release the real-world observations and high-resolution CMAQ-OBS dataset for East Asia, reducing regional error by 59.5% and enabling real-time 48-120 hour forecasts critical for public health alerts. However, standard point-wise objectives cannot reflect asymmetric operational costs, where false alarms deteriorate public trust while missed severe events endanger populations. This cost mismatch causes SFT models to over-predict and yield high False Alarm Rates. We introduce Group-Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with class-wise rewards and curriculum rollout to align predictions with operational priorities. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework significantly improves the reliability of the forecast. Compared to the SFT-only baseline, our model reduces the False Alarm Rate by 47.3% while achieving a competitive F1-score, proving its effectiveness for practical, real-world air quality forecasting systems on long lead time scenarios.

Climate change has resulted in a year over year increase in adverse weather and weather conditions which contribute to increasingly severe fire seasons. Without effective mitigation, these fires pose a threat to life, property, ecology, cultural heritage, and critical infrastructure. To better prepare for and react to the increasing threat of wildfires, more accurate fire modelers and mitigation responses are necessary. In this paper, we introduce SimFire, a versatile wildland fire projection simulator designed to generate realistic wildfire scenarios, and SimHarness, a modular agent-based machine learning wrapper capable of automatically generating land management strategies within SimFire to reduce the overall damage to the area. Together, this publicly available system allows researchers and practitioners the ability to emulate and assess the effectiveness of firefighter interventions and formulate strategic plans that prioritize value preservation and resource allocation optimization. The repositories are available for download at https://github.com/mitrefireline.

Wildfire research, modeling, and education require geospatial data from multiple sources that vary in formats, coordinate systems, spatial resolutions, and temporal cadences. This preprocessing burden limits reproducible reuse. We present FireDataForge, an open-source Python framework that automates retrieval and harmonization of 11 wildfire-related sources spanning fire behavior, weather, land cover, vegetation, elevation, built environment, wildland-urban interface, fire history, and satellite imagery. Given an MTBS Event ID, FireDataForge retrieves relevant datasets, aligns them to a common grid, and outputs analysis-ready NumPy arrays with embedded metadata. Batch processing of historical fires demonstrates support for fire behavior simulation, educational visualization, machine learning, and AI-assisted wildfire analysis.

In recent decades, wildfires, as widespread and extremely destructive natural disasters, have caused tremendous property losses and fatalities, as well as extensive damage to forest ecosystems. Many fire risk assessment projects have been proposed to prevent wildfires, but GIS-based methods are inherently challenging to scale to different geographic areas due to variations in data collection and local conditions. Inspired by the abundance of publicly available remote sensing projects and the burgeoning development of deep learning in computer vision, our research focuses on assessing fire risk using remote sensing imagery. In this work, we propose a novel remote sensing dataset, FireRisk, consisting of 7 fire risk classes with a total of 91872 labelled images for fire risk assessment. This remote sensing dataset is labelled with the fire risk classes supplied by the Wildfire Hazard Potential (WHP) raster dataset, and remote sensing images are collected using the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP), a high-resolution remote sensing imagery program. On FireRisk, we present benchmark performance for supervised and self-supervised representations, with Masked Autoencoders (MAE) pre-trained on ImageNet1k achieving the highest classification accuracy, 65.29%. This remote sensing dataset, FireRisk, provides a new direction for fire risk assessment, and we make it publicly available on https://github.com/CharmonyShen/FireRisk.

The increasing frequency of catastrophic natural events, such as wildfires, calls for the development of rapid and automated wildfire detection systems. In this paper, we propose a wildfire identification solution to improve the accuracy of automated satellite-based hotspot detection systems by leveraging multiple information sources. We cross-reference the thermal anomalies detected by the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) hotspot services with the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) database to construct a large-scale hotspot dataset for wildfire-related studies in Europe. Then, we propose a novel multimodal supervised machine learning approach to disambiguate hotspot detections, distinguishing between wildfires and other events. Our methodology includes the use of multimodal data sources, such as the ERSI annual Land Use Land Cover (LULC) and the Copernicus Sentinel-3 data. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in the task of wildfire identification.

The size and frequency of wildland fires in the western United States have dramatically increased in recent years. On high-fire-risk days, a small fire ignition can rapidly grow and become out of control. Early detection of fire ignitions from initial smoke can assist the response to such fires before they become difficult to manage. Past deep learning approaches for wildfire smoke detection have suffered from small or unreliable datasets that make it difficult to extrapolate performance to real-world scenarios. In this work, we present the Fire Ignition Library (FIgLib), a publicly available dataset of nearly 25,000 labeled wildfire smoke images as seen from fixed-view cameras deployed in Southern California. We also introduce SmokeyNet, a novel deep learning architecture using spatiotemporal information from camera imagery for real-time wildfire smoke detection. When trained on the FIgLib dataset, SmokeyNet outperforms comparable baselines and rivals human performance. We hope that the availability of the FIgLib dataset and the SmokeyNet architecture will inspire further research into deep learning methods for wildfire smoke detection, leading to automated notification systems that reduce the time to wildfire response.

Early detection of wildfires is essential to prevent large-scale fires resulting in extensive environmental, structural, and societal damage. Uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) can cover large remote areas effectively with quick deployment requiring minimal infrastructure and equipping them with small cameras and computers enables autonomous real-time detection. In remote areas, however, detection methods are limited to onboard computation due to the lack of high-bandwidth mobile networks. For accurate camera-based localisation, segmentation of the detected smoke is essential but training data for deep learning-based wildfire smoke segmentation is limited. This study shows how small specialised segmentation models can be trained using only bounding box labels, leveraging zero-shot foundation model supervision. The method offers the advantages of needing only fairly easily obtainable bounding box labels and requiring training solely for the smaller student network. The proposed method achieved 63.3% mIoU on a manually annotated and diverse wildfire dataset. The used model can perform in real-time at ~25 fps with a UAV-carried NVIDIA Jetson Orin NX computer while reliably recognising smoke, as demonstrated at real-world forest burning events. Code is available at: https://gitlab.com/fgi_nls/public/wildfire-real-time-segmentation

The increasing accessibility of radiometric thermal imaging sensors for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) offers significant potential for advancing AI-driven aerial wildfire management. Radiometric imaging provides per-pixel temperature estimates, a valuable improvement over non-radiometric data that requires irradiance measurements to be converted into visible images using RGB color palettes. Despite its benefits, this technology has been underutilized largely due to a lack of available data for researchers. This study addresses this gap by introducing methods for collecting and processing synchronized visual spectrum and radiometric thermal imagery using UAVs at prescribed fires. The included imagery processing pipeline drastically simplifies and partially automates each step from data collection to neural network input. Further, we present the FLAME 3 dataset, the first comprehensive collection of side-by-side visual spectrum and radiometric thermal imagery of wildland fires. Building on our previous FLAME 1 and FLAME 2 datasets, FLAME 3 includes radiometric thermal Tag Image File Format (TIFFs) and nadir thermal plots, providing a new data type and collection method. This dataset aims to spur a new generation of machine learning models utilizing radiometric thermal imagery, potentially trivializing tasks such as aerial wildfire detection, segmentation, and assessment. A single-burn subset of FLAME 3 for computer vision applications is available on Kaggle with the full 6 burn set available to readers upon request.

Wildfires are increasing in intensity and severity at an alarming rate. Recent advances in AI and publicly available satellite data enable monitoring critical wildfire risk factors globally, at high resolution and low latency. Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) is a critical wildfire risk factor and is valuable for both wildfire research and operational response. However, ground-based LFMC samples are both labor intensive and costly to acquire, resulting in sparse and infrequent updates. In this work, we explore the use of a pretrained, highly-multimodal earth-observation model for generating large-scale spatially complete (wall-to-wall) LFMC maps. Our approach achieves significant improvements over previous methods using randomly initialized models (20 reduction in RMSE). We provide an automated pipeline that enables rapid generation of these LFMC maps across the United States, and demonstrate its effectiveness in two regions recently impacted by wildfire (Eaton and Palisades).

The rise of accurate machine learning methods for weather forecasting is creating radical new possibilities for modeling the atmosphere. In the time of climate change, having access to high-resolution forecasts from models like these is also becoming increasingly vital. While most existing Neural Weather Prediction (NeurWP) methods focus on global forecasting, an important question is how these techniques can be applied to limited area modeling. In this work we adapt the graph-based NeurWP approach to the limited area setting and propose a multi-scale hierarchical model extension. Our approach is validated by experiments with a local model for the Nordic region.

Accurate and rapid prediction of wildfire trends is crucial for effective management and mitigation. However, the stochastic nature of fire propagation poses significant challenges in developing reliable simulators. In this paper, we introduce PyTorchFire, an open-access, PyTorch-based software that leverages GPU acceleration. With our redesigned differentiable wildfire Cellular Automata (CA) model, we achieve millisecond-level computational efficiency, significantly outperforming traditional CPU-based wildfire simulators on real-world-scale fires at high resolution. Real-time parameter calibration is made possible through gradient descent on our model, aligning simulations closely with observed wildfire behavior both temporally and spatially, thereby enhancing the realism of the simulations. Our PyTorchFire simulator, combined with real-world environmental data, demonstrates superior generalizability compared to supervised learning surrogate models. Its ability to predict and calibrate wildfire behavior in real-time ensures accuracy, stability, and efficiency. PyTorchFire has the potential to revolutionize wildfire simulation, serving as a powerful tool for wildfire prediction and management.

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

Accurate air quality forecasts are vital for public health alerts, exposure assessment, and emissions control. In practice, observational data are often missing in varying proportions and patterns due to collection and transmission issues. These incomplete spatiotemporal records impede reliable inference and risk assessment and can lead to overconfident extrapolation. To address these challenges, we propose an end to end framework, the channel gated learning unit based spatiotemporal bayesian neural field (CGLUBNF). It uses Fourier features with a graph attention encoder to capture multiscale spatial dependencies and seasonal temporal dynamics. A channel gated learning unit, equipped with learnable activations and gated residual connections, adaptively filters and amplifies informative features. Bayesian inference jointly optimizes predictive distributions and parameter uncertainty, producing point estimates and calibrated prediction intervals. We conduct a systematic evaluation on two real world datasets, covering four typical missing data patterns and comparing against five state of the art baselines. CGLUBNF achieves superior prediction accuracy and sharper confidence intervals. In addition, we further validate robustness across multiple prediction horizons and analysis the contribution of extraneous variables. This research lays a foundation for reliable deep learning based spatio-temporal forecasting with incomplete observations in emerging sensing paradigms, such as real world vehicle borne mobile monitoring.

Early wildfire detection is of the utmost importance to enable rapid response efforts, and thus minimize the negative impacts of wildfire spreads. To this end, we present \Pyro, a web-scraping-based dataset composed of videos of wildfires from a network of cameras that were enhanced with manual bounding-box-level annotations. Our dataset was filtered based on a strategy to improve the quality and diversity of the data, reducing the final data to a set of 10,000 images. We ran experiments using a state-of-the-art object detection model and found out that the proposed dataset is challenging and its use in concordance with other public dataset helps to reach higher results overall. We will make our code and data publicly available.

Aerosol forecasting is essential for air quality warnings, health risk assessment, and climate change mitigation. However, it is more complex than weather forecasting due to the intricate interactions between aerosol physicochemical processes and atmospheric dynamics, resulting in significant uncertainty and high computational costs. Here, we develop an artificial intelligence-driven global aerosol-meteorology forecasting system (AI-GAMFS), which provides reliable 5-day, 3-hourly forecasts of aerosol optical components and surface concentrations at a 0.5° x 0.625° resolution. AI-GAMFS combines Vision Transformer and U-Net in a backbone network, robustly capturing the complex aerosol-meteorology interactions via global attention and spatiotemporal encoding. Trained on 42 years of advanced aerosol reanalysis data and initialized with GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) analyses, AI-GAMFS delivers operational 5-day forecasts in one minute. It outperforms the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global forecasting system, GEOS-FP forecasts, and several regional dust forecasting systems in forecasting most aerosol variables including aerosol optical depth and dust components. Our results mark a significant step forward in leveraging AI to refine physics-based aerosol forecasting, facilitating more accurate global warnings for aerosol pollution events, such as dust storms and wildfires.

Earth Observation (EO) forecasting aims to predict future Earth surface dynamics from satellite observations under changing meteorological conditions. In this paper, we view this task as a partially observed, weather-driven world modeling problem, in which weather acts as a conditioning signal, while forecasting remains uncertain due to sparse observations and unobserved land-surface states. However, existing methods do not fully capture this setting: deterministic models collapse uncertainty into a single future prediction, while diffusion-based methods typically treat weather variables as undifferentiated conditioning signals, and existing benchmarks focus mainly on reconstruction accuracy rather than whether forecasts respond correctly to changed weather forcing.We introduce EO-WM, a video diffusion transformer for multispectral EO forecasting. EO-WM incorporates a physically informed conditioning framework that represents meteorological forcing through a climatological baseline, weather anomalies, and cumulative physical stress signals. Specifically, it separates baseline and anomaly through distinct conditioning pathways, and accumulates anomalous forcing over time to capture sustained heat and drought stress. To evaluate weather-response behavior beyond standard metrics, we introduce two diagnostic benchmarks: an Extreme Summer Benchmark for severity-aware prediction of vegetation degradation under extreme weather, and a Seasonal Matched-Pair Benchmark for testing response fidelity under changed weather forcing. Experiments show that EO-WM reduces the error in predicted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) decline amplitude by a relative 5.63% and improves directional hit rate by a relative 7.80%, while remaining competitive on standard pixel-level metrics. The benchmarks and model will be made open-source at https://github.com/Luo-Z13/EO-WM.

Short-term forecasting of vegetation dynamics is a key enabler for data-driven decision support in precision agriculture. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) forecasting from satellite observations, however, remains challenging due to sparse and irregular sampling caused by cloud masking, as well as the heterogeneous climatic conditions under which crops evolve. In this work, we propose a probabilistic forecasting framework for field-level NDVI prediction under sparse, irregular clear-sky acquisitions. The architecture separates the encoding of historical NDVI and meteorological observations from future exogenous covariates, fusing both representations for multi-step quantile prediction. To address irregular revisit patterns and horizon-dependent uncertainty, we introduce a temporal-distance weighted quantile loss that aligns the training objective with the effective forecasting horizon. In addition, we incorporate cumulative and extreme-weather feature engineering to capture delayed meteorological effects relevant to vegetation response. Experiments on European satellite data show that the proposed approach outperforms statistical, deep learning, and time-series baselines on both pointwise and probabilistic evaluation metrics. Ablation studies confirm that target history is the primary driver of performance, with meteorological covariates providing additional gains in the full multimodal setting. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/ndvi-forecasting.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have shown great promise in time series forecasting. However, most existing LLM-based forecasting methods still follow a static generative paradigm that directly maps historical observations to future values in a single pass. Under this paradigm, forecasting is constrained by limited temporal pattern extraction, single-round acquisition of contextual features, one-shot forecast generation, and lack of support from ensemble forecasts. To address these limitations, in this work, we propose CastFlow, a dynamic agentic forecasting framework that enables multi-view temporal pattern extraction, multi-round contextual features acquisition, iterative forecast refinement, and forecasting with ensemble forecasts. First, CastFlow organizes the forecasting process into planning, action, forecasting, and reflection, establishing an agentic workflow. Second, this workflow is supported by a memory module that retrieves prior experience and a multi-view toolkit that constructs diagnostic evidence and provides a reliable ensemble forecast baseline. Third, CastFlow adopts a role-specialized design that combines general-purpose reasoning with specialized numerical forecasting. Under this design, a frozen LLM preserves general-purpose reasoning, while a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM performs evidence-guided numerical forecasting based on the ensemble forecast baseline, rather than from scratch. To optimize a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM, we further develop a two-stage workflow-oriented training that combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). To evaluate the effectiveness of CastFlow, we conduct extensive experiments on diverse datasets and show that it achieves superior overall results against strong baselines. We hope that this work can serve as a step toward more adaptive and accurate time series forecasting.

The machine learning community has recently had increased interest in the climate and disaster damage domain due to a marked increased occurrences of natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, forest fires, floods, earthquakes). However, not enough attention has been devoted to mitigating probable destruction from impending natural hazards. We explore this crucial space by predicting building-level damages on a before-the-fact basis that would allow state actors and non-governmental organizations to be best equipped with resource distribution to minimize or preempt losses. We introduce PreDisM that employs an ensemble of ResNets and fully connected layers over decision trees to capture image-level and meta-level information to accurately estimate weakness of man-made structures to disaster-occurrences. Our model performs well and is responsive to tuning across types of disasters and highlights the space of preemptive hazard damage modelling.

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

Early wildfire detection in remote and forest areas is crucial for minimizing devastation and preserving ecosystems. Autonomous drones offer agile access to remote, challenging terrains, equipped with advanced imaging technology that delivers both high-temporal and detailed spatial resolution, making them valuable assets in the early detection and monitoring of wildfires. However, the limited computation and battery resources of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) pose significant challenges in implementing robust and efficient image classification models. Current works in this domain often operate offline, emphasizing the need for solutions that can perform inference in real time, given the constraints of UAVs. To address these challenges, this paper aims to develop a real-time image classification and fire segmentation model. It presents a comprehensive investigation into hardware acceleration using the Jetson Nano P3450 and the implications of TensorRT, NVIDIA's high-performance deep-learning inference library, on fire classification accuracy and speed. The study includes implementations of Quantization Aware Training (QAT), Automatic Mixed Precision (AMP), and post-training mechanisms, comparing them against the latest baselines for fire segmentation and classification. All experiments utilize the FLAME dataset - an image dataset collected by low-altitude drones during a prescribed forest fire. This work contributes to the ongoing efforts to enable real-time, on-board wildfire detection capabilities for UAVs, addressing speed and the computational and energy constraints of these crucial monitoring systems. The results show a 13% increase in classification speed compared to similar models without hardware optimization. Comparatively, loss and accuracy are within 1.225% of the original values.

Accurate air quality forecasting is crucial for protecting public health and guiding environmental policy, yet it remains challenging due to nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics, wind-driven transport, and distribution shifts across regions. Physics-based models are interpretable but computationally expensive and often rely on restrictive assumptions, whereas purely data-driven models can be accurate but may lack robustness and calibrated uncertainty. To address these limitations, we propose Neural Dynamic Diffusion-Advection Fields (NeuroDDAF), a physics-informed forecasting framework that unifies neural representation learning with open-system transport modeling. NeuroDDAF integrates (i) a GRU-Graph Attention encoder to capture temporal dynamics and wind-aware spatial interactions, (ii) a Fourier-domain diffusion-advection module with learnable residuals, (iii) a wind-modulated latent Neural ODE to model continuous-time evolution under time-varying connectivity, and (iv) an evidential fusion mechanism that adaptively combines physics-guided and neural forecasts while quantifying uncertainty. Experiments on four urban datasets (Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Ancona) across 1-3 day horizons show that NeuroDDAF consistently outperforms strong baselines, including AirPhyNet, achieving up to 9.7% reduction in RMSE and 9.4% reduction in MAE on long-term forecasts. On the Beijing dataset, NeuroDDAF attains an RMSE of 41.63 μg/m^3 for 1-day prediction and 48.88 μg/m^3 for 3-day prediction, representing the best performance among all compared methods. In addition, NeuroDDAF improves cross-city generalization and yields well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as confirmed by ensemble variance analysis and case studies under varying wind conditions.

Traditional data sources on bushfire evacuation behaviour, such as quantitative surveys and manual observations have severe limitations. Mining social media data related to bushfire evacuations promises to close this gap by allowing the collection and processing of a large amount of behavioural data, which are low-cost, accurate, possibly including location information and rich contextual information. However, social media data have many limitations, such as being scattered, incomplete, informal, etc. Together, these limitations represent several challenges to their usefulness to better understand bushfire evacuation. To overcome these challenges and provide guidance on which and how social media data can be used, this scoping review of the literature reports on recent advances in relevant data mining techniques. In addition, future applications and open problems are discussed. We envision future applications such as evacuation model calibration and validation, emergency communication, personalised evacuation training, and resource allocation for evacuation preparedness. We identify open problems such as data quality, bias and representativeness, geolocation accuracy, contextual understanding, crisis-specific lexicon and semantics, and multimodal data interpretation.

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

Forecasting weather and climate events is crucial for making appropriate measures to mitigate environmental hazards and minimize losses. However, existing environmental forecasting research focuses narrowly on predicting numerical meteorological variables (e.g., temperature), neglecting the translation of these variables into actionable textual narratives of events and their consequences. To bridge this gap, we proposed Weather and Climate Event Forecasting (WCEF), a new task that leverages numerical meteorological raster data and textual event data to predict weather and climate events. This task is challenging to accomplish due to difficulties in aligning multimodal data and the lack of supervised datasets. To address these challenges, we present CLLMate, the first multimodal dataset for WCEF, using 26,156 environmental news articles aligned with ERA5 reanalysis data. We systematically benchmark 23 existing MLLMs on CLLMate, including closed-source, open-source, and our fine-tuned models. Our experiments reveal the advantages and limitations of existing MLLMs and the value of CLLMate for the training and benchmarking of the WCEF task.

Accurate probabilistic weather forecasting demands both high accuracy and efficient uncertainty quantification, challenges that overburden both ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) and recent machine-learning methods. We introduce LaDCast, the first global latent-diffusion framework for medium-range ensemble forecasting, which generates hourly ensemble forecasts entirely in a learned latent space. An autoencoder compresses high-dimensional ERA5 reanalysis fields into a compact representation, and a transformer-based diffusion model produces sequential latent updates with arbitrary hour initialization. The model incorporates Geometric Rotary Position Embedding (GeoRoPE) to account for the Earth's spherical geometry, a dual-stream attention mechanism for efficient conditioning, and sinusoidal temporal embeddings to capture seasonal patterns. LaDCast achieves deterministic and probabilistic skill close to that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast IFS-ENS, without any explicit perturbations. Notably, LaDCast demonstrates superior performance in tracking rare extreme events such as cyclones, capturing their trajectories more accurately than established models. By operating in latent space, LaDCast reduces storage and compute by orders of magnitude, demonstrating a practical path toward forecasting at kilometer-scale resolution in real time. We open-source our code and models and provide the training and evaluation pipelines at: https://github.com/tonyzyl/ladcast.

Wildfires are an escalating global concern due to the devastating impacts on the environment, economy, and human health, with notable incidents such as the 2019-2020 Australian bushfires and the 2025 California wildfires underscoring the severity of these events. AI-enabled camera-based smoke detection has emerged as a promising approach for the rapid detection of wildfires. However, existing wildfire smoke segmentation datasets that are used for training detection and segmentation models are limited in scale, geographically constrained, and often rely on synthetic imagery, which hinders effective training and generalization. To overcome these limitations, we present AusSmoke, a new smoke segmentation dataset collected from Australia to address the data scarcity in this region. Furthermore, we introduce a MultiNational geographically diverse and substantially larger fully-labelled benchmark, called MultiNatSmoke, that consolidates publicly available international datasets with the newly collected Australian imagery, expanding the scale by an order of magnitude over previous collections. Finally, we benchmark smoke segmentation models, demonstrating improved performance and enhanced generalization across diverse geographical contexts. The project is available at https://github.com/henryzhao0615/MultiNatSmoke{Github}.

Wildfires have become increasingly frequent, irregular, and severe in recent years. Understanding how affected populations perceive and respond during wildfire crises is critical for timely and empathetic disaster response. Social media platforms offer a crowd-sourced channel to capture evolving public discourse, providing hyperlocal information and insight into public sentiment. This study analyzes Reddit discourse during the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, spanning from the onset of the disaster to full containment. We collect 385 posts and 114,879 comments related to the Palisades and Eaton fires. We adopt topic modeling methods to identify the latent topics, enhanced by large language models (LLMs) and human-in-the-loop (HITL) refinement. Furthermore, we develop a hierarchical framework to categorize latent topics, consisting of two main categories, Situational Awareness (SA) and Crisis Narratives (CN). The volume of SA category closely aligns with real-world fire progressions, peaking within the first 2-5 days as the fires reach the maximum extent. The most frequent co-occurring category set of public health and safety, loss and damage, and emergency resources expands on a wide range of health-related latent topics, including environmental health, occupational health, and one health. Grief signals and mental health risks consistently accounted for 60 percentage and 40 percentage of CN instances, respectively, with the highest total volume occurring at night. This study contributes the first annotated social media dataset on the 2025 LA fires, and introduces a scalable multi-layer framework that leverages topic modeling for crisis discourse analysis. By identifying persistent public health concerns, our results can inform more empathetic and adaptive strategies for disaster response, public health communication, and future research in comparable climate-related disaster events.

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

Weather forecasting is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture, industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning models have the potential to transform the complex weather prediction pipeline, but current approaches still rely on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, limiting forecast speed and accuracy. Here we demonstrate that a machine learning model can replace the entire operational NWP pipeline. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end data-driven weather prediction system, ingests raw observations and outputs global gridded forecasts and local station forecasts. Further, it can be optimised end-to-end to maximise performance over quantities of interest. Global forecasts outperform an operational NWP baseline for multiple variables and lead times. Local station forecasts are skillful up to ten days lead time and achieve comparable and often lower errors than a post-processed global NWP baseline and a state-of-the-art end-to-end forecasting system with input from human forecasters. These forecasts are produced with a remarkably simple neural process model using just 8% of the input data and three orders of magnitude less compute than existing NWP and hybrid AI-NWP methods. We anticipate that Aardvark Weather will be the starting point for a new generation of end-to-end machine learning models for medium-range forecasting that will reduce computational costs by orders of magnitude and enable the rapid and cheap creation of bespoke models for users in a variety of fields, including for the developing world where state-of-the-art local models are not currently available.

Accurate weather forecasts are important for disaster prevention, agricultural planning, etc. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods offer physically interpretable high-accuracy predictions but are computationally expensive and fail to fully leverage rapidly growing historical data. In recent years, deep learning models have made significant progress in weather forecasting, but challenges remain, such as balancing global and regional high-resolution forecasts, excessive smoothing in extreme event predictions, and insufficient dynamic system modeling. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global-regional nested weather forecasting framework (OneForecast) based on graph neural networks. By combining a dynamic system perspective with multi-grid theory, we construct a multi-scale graph structure and densify the target region to capture local high-frequency features. We introduce an adaptive messaging mechanism, using dynamic gating units to deeply integrate node and edge features for more accurate extreme event forecasting. For high-resolution regional forecasts, we propose a neural nested grid method to mitigate boundary information loss. Experimental results show that OneForecast performs excellently across global to regional scales and short-term to long-term forecasts, especially in extreme event predictions. Codes link https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/OneForecast.

We present the Wildland-fire Infrared Thermal (WIT-UAS) dataset for long-wave infrared sensing of crew and vehicle assets amidst prescribed wildland fire environments. While such a dataset is crucial for safety monitoring in wildland fire applications, to the authors' awareness, no such dataset focusing on assets near fire is publicly available. Presumably, this is due to the barrier to entry of collaborating with fire management personnel. We present two related data subsets: WIT-UAS-ROS consists of full ROS bag files containing sensor and robot data of UAS flight over the fire, and WIT-UAS-Image contains hand-labeled long-wave infrared (LWIR) images extracted from WIT-UAS-ROS. Our dataset is the first to focus on asset detection in a wildland fire environment. We show that thermal detection models trained without fire data frequently detect false positives by classifying fire as people. By adding our dataset to training, we show that the false positive rate is reduced significantly. Yet asset detection in wildland fire environments is still significantly more challenging than detection in urban environments, due to dense obscuring trees, greater heat variation, and overbearing thermal signal of the fire. We publicize this dataset to encourage the community to study more advanced models to tackle this challenging environment. The dataset, code and pretrained models are available at https://github.com/castacks/WIT-UAS-Dataset.

Air pollution poses a significant threat to public health and well-being, particularly in urban areas. This study introduces a series of machine-learning models that integrate data from the Sentinel-5P satellite, meteorological conditions, and topological characteristics to forecast future levels of five major pollutants. The investigation delineates the process of data collection, detailing the combination of diverse data sources utilized in the study. Through experiments conducted in the Milan metropolitan area, the models demonstrate their efficacy in predicting pollutant levels for the forthcoming day, achieving a percentage error of around 30%. The proposed models are advantageous as they are independent of monitoring stations, facilitating their use in areas without existing infrastructure. Additionally, we have released the collected dataset to the public, aiming to stimulate further research in this field. This research contributes to advancing our understanding of urban air quality dynamics and emphasizes the importance of amalgamating satellite, meteorological, and topographical data to develop robust pollution forecasting models.

Machine learning-based weather forecasting models have quickly emerged as a promising methodology for accurate medium-range global weather forecasting. Here, we introduce the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), a data driven forecast model developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). AIFS is based on a graph neural network (GNN) encoder and decoder, and a sliding window transformer processor, and is trained on ECMWF's ERA5 re-analysis and ECMWF's operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) analyses. It has a flexible and modular design and supports several levels of parallelism to enable training on high-resolution input data. AIFS forecast skill is assessed by comparing its forecasts to NWP analyses and direct observational data. We show that AIFS produces highly skilled forecasts for upper-air variables, surface weather parameters and tropical cyclone tracks. AIFS is run four times daily alongside ECMWF's physics-based NWP model and forecasts are available to the public under ECMWF's open data policy.

An effective Fire and Smoke Detection (FSD) and analysis system is of paramount importance due to the destructive potential of fire disasters. However, many existing FSD methods directly employ generic object detection techniques without considering the transparency of fire and smoke, which leads to imprecise localization and reduces detection performance. To address this issue, a new Attentive Fire and Smoke Detection Model (a-FSDM) is proposed. This model not only retains the robust feature extraction and fusion capabilities of conventional detection algorithms but also redesigns the detection head specifically for transparent targets in FSD, termed the Attentive Transparency Detection Head (ATDH). In addition, Burning Intensity (BI) is introduced as a pivotal feature for fire-related downstream risk assessments in traditional FSD methodologies. Extensive experiments on multiple FSD datasets showcase the effectiveness and versatility of the proposed FSD model. The project is available at https://xiaoyihan6.github.io/FSD/{https://xiaoyihan6.github.io/FSD/}.

Kilometer-scale modeling of global atmosphere dynamics enables fine-grained weather forecasting and decreases the risk of disastrous weather and climate activity. Therefore, building a kilometer-scale global forecast model is a persistent pursuit in the meteorology domain. Active international efforts have been made in past decades to improve the spatial resolution of numerical weather models. Nonetheless, developing the higher resolution numerical model remains a long-standing challenge due to the substantial consumption of computational resources. Recent advances in data-driven global weather forecasting models utilize reanalysis data for model training and have demonstrated comparable or even higher forecasting skills than numerical models. However, they are all limited by the resolution of reanalysis data and incapable of generating higher-resolution forecasts. This work presents FengWu-GHR, the first data-driven global weather forecasting model running at the 0.09^{circ} horizontal resolution. FengWu-GHR introduces a novel approach that opens the door for operating ML-based high-resolution forecasts by inheriting prior knowledge from a pretrained low-resolution model. The hindcast of weather prediction in 2022 indicates that FengWu-GHR is superior to the IFS-HRES. Furthermore, evaluations on station observations and case studies of extreme events support the competitive operational forecasting skill of FengWu-GHR at the high resolution.

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

Operational weather prediction at kilometer scales remains computationally prohibitive for traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, limiting forecast access for applications in energy, agriculture, and disaster management that require fine-grained spatiotemporal detail. Here we introduce AirCast-SR, a foundation model for atmospheric super-resolution that downscales global AI weather forecasts from 0.25 degree (~28 km) to 1 km horizontal resolution at hourly temporal resolution, producing 67-hour forecasts of eight coupled surface variables simultaneously. EarthMind-SR employs a three-dimensional U-Net conditioned within a Latent Consistency Model (LCM) diffusion framework, trained on patch-based samples over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using GraphCast forecasts as input and NOAA's Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) as the target. The model achieves near-zero bias across all variables and lead times, and its radial power spectral density analysis demonstrates preservation of fine-scale atmospheric structure at wavelengths of 10 km to 100 km where coarser models lose spectral power. We validate EarthMind-SR across three CONUS case studies spanning winter, summer, and spring seasons, and demonstrate zero-shot global transferability over India and Germany using independent surface station observations without any retraining or fine-tuning. As an open-weights foundation model, EarthMind-SR establishes a new paradigm for kilometer-scale AI weather prediction and provides a platform for regional fine-tuning, distillation, and downstream applications in climate services and hazard forecasting.

Wildfire monitoring requires timely, actionable situational awareness from airborne platforms, yet existing aerial visual question answering (VQA) benchmarks do not evaluate wildfire-specific multimodal reasoning grounded in thermal measurements. We introduce WildFireVQA, a large-scale VQA benchmark for aerial wildfire monitoring that integrates RGB imagery with radiometric thermal data. WildFireVQA contains 6,097 RGB-thermal samples, where each sample includes an RGB image, a color-mapped thermal visualization, and a radiometric thermal TIFF, and is paired with 34 questions, yielding a total of 207,298 multiple-choice questions spanning presence and detection, classification, distribution and segmentation, localization and direction, cross-modal reasoning, and flight planning for operational wildfire intelligence. To improve annotation reliability, we combine multimodal large language model (MLLM)-based answer generation with sensor-driven deterministic labeling, manual verification, and intra-frame and inter-frame consistency checks. We further establish a comprehensive evaluation protocol for representative MLLMs under RGB, Thermal, and retrieval-augmented settings using radiometric thermal statistics. Experiments show that across task categories, RGB remains the strongest modality for current models, while retrieved thermal context yields gains for stronger MLLMs, highlighting both the value of temperature-grounded reasoning and the limitations of existing MLLMs in safety-critical wildfire scenarios. The dataset and benchmark code are open-source at https://github.com/mobiiin/WildFire_VQA.

Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models. However, these data-driven models are typically trained with a mean squared error loss function, which causes smoothing of fine scales through a "double penalty" effect. We develop a simple, parameter-free modification to this loss function that avoids this problem by separating the loss attributable to decorrelation from the loss attributable to spectral amplitude errors. Fine-tuning the GraphCast model with this new loss function results in sharp deterministic weather forecasts, an increase of the model's effective resolution from 1,250km to 160km, improvements to ensemble spread, and improvements to predictions of tropical cyclone strength and surface wind extremes.

Local Energy Communities are emerging as crucial players in the landscape of sustainable development. A significant challenge for these communities is achieving self-sufficiency through effective management of the balance between energy production and consumption. To meet this challenge, it is essential to develop and implement forecasting models that deliver accurate predictions, which can then be utilized by optimization and planning algorithms. However, the application of forecasting solutions is often hindered by privacy constrains and regulations as the users participating in the Local Energy Community can be (rightfully) reluctant sharing their consumption patterns with others. In this context, the use of Federated Learning (FL) can be a viable solution as it allows to create a forecasting model without the need to share privacy sensitive information among the users. In this study, we demonstrate how FL and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks can be employed to achieve this objective, highlighting the trade-off between data sharing and forecasting accuracy.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

Probabilistic weather forecasting requires not only accurate trajectories, but calibrated distributions over plausible atmospheric futures. Recent data-driven systems have achieved remarkable deterministic skill, and diffusion-based ensemble forecasters have substantially improved sample realism and uncertainty quantification. However, their inference cost scales with forecast horizon, ensemble size, and the number of denoising steps required for each transition, making large operational ensembles expensive. To address this, we present Tyche, a one-step conditional flow model for efficient probabilistic weather forecasting. Tyche models the conditional forecast distribution with a destination-aware average-velocity flow that maps Gaussian noise directly to future weather states in a single function evaluation (1-NFE). To make this one-step transport learnable in high-dimensional geophysical fields, we derive a JVP-regularized rectification objective that enforces temporal self-consistency across source and destination flow timesteps without explicitly forming Jacobians. The transport field is parameterized by an isotropic Swin-style transformer that preserves fine-scale spatial structure while remaining scalable on global grids. To improve ensemble reliability under autoregressive forecasting, we further introduce a rollout-based finetuning stage with curriculum CRPS calibration supervision. Experiments on ERA5 at 1.5^circ and 6-hour resolution show that our Tyche, using merely a single NFE, matches or exceeds the forecast skill and calibration of state-of-the-art multi-step generative baselines and the operational ECMWF IFS ensemble.

With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of processing, visualizing, modeling, and explaining this data. To showcase how this challenge can be met, here we train a convolutional long short-term memory-based architecture on the novel DeepExtremeCubes dataset. DeepExtremeCubes includes around 40,000 long-term Sentinel-2 minicubes (January 2016-October 2022) worldwide, along with labeled extreme events, meteorological data, vegetation land cover, and topography map, sampled from locations affected by extreme climate events and surrounding areas. When predicting future reflectances and vegetation impacts through kernel normalized difference vegetation index, the model achieved an R^2 score of 0.9055 in the test set. Explainable artificial intelligence was used to analyze the model's predictions during the October 2020 Central South America compound heatwave and drought event. We chose the same area exactly one year before the event as counterfactual, finding that the average temperature and surface pressure are generally the best predictors under normal conditions. In contrast, minimum anomalies of evaporation and surface latent heat flux take the lead during the event. A change of regime is also observed in the attributions before the event, which might help assess how long the event was brewing before happening. The code to replicate all experiments and figures in this paper is publicly available at https://github.com/DeepExtremes/txyXAI

The fire and crime incident datasets were requested and collected from two Philippine regional agencies (i.e., the Bureau of Fire Protection and the Philippine National Police). The datasets were used to initially analyze and map both fire and crime incidents within the province of Pampanga for a specific time frame. Several data preparation, normalization, and data cleaning steps were implemented to properly map and identify patterns within the datasets. The initial results also indicate the leading causes of fire and crimes are rubbish and acts against property. Fires mostly occur during the dry season in the province. Crime is particularly high during December, and most of the fire and crime incidents occur during the time when people are most active. The dataset was able to present the temporal characteristics of the fire and crime incidents that occurred in the province of Pampanga. Merge the existing dataset with the other datasets from other related agencies to get a bigger picture and produce more objective results that could be used for decision-making.

In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by typhoons, we release our preprocessed PHYSICS TRACK dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

We introduce EarthPT -- an Earth Observation (EO) pretrained transformer. EarthPT is a 700 million parameter decoding transformer foundation model trained in an autoregressive self-supervised manner and developed specifically with EO use-cases in mind. We demonstrate that EarthPT is an effective forecaster that can accurately predict future pixel-level surface reflectances across the 400-2300 nm range well into the future. For example, forecasts of the evolution of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have a typical error of approximately 0.05 (over a natural range of -1 -> 1) at the pixel level over a five month test set horizon, out-performing simple phase-folded models based on historical averaging. We also demonstrate that embeddings learnt by EarthPT hold semantically meaningful information and could be exploited for downstream tasks such as highly granular, dynamic land use classification. Excitingly, we note that the abundance of EO data provides us with -- in theory -- quadrillions of training tokens. Therefore, if we assume that EarthPT follows neural scaling laws akin to those derived for Large Language Models (LLMs), there is currently no data-imposed limit to scaling EarthPT and other similar `Large Observation Models.'

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood p sim Beta(α, β) and outcome y sim Bernoulli(p), with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

Remote sensing world models aim to both explain observed changes and forecast plausible futures, two tasks that share spatiotemporal priors. Existing methods, however, typically address them separately, limiting cross-task transfer. We present RS-WorldModel, a unified world model for remote sensing that jointly handles spatiotemporal change understanding and text-guided future scene forecasting, and we build RSWBench-1.1M, a 1.1 million sample dataset with rich language annotations covering both tasks. RS-WorldModel is trained in three stages: (1) Geo-Aware Generative Pre-training (GAGP) conditions forecasting on geographic and acquisition metadata; (2) synergistic instruction tuning (SIT) jointly trains understanding and forecasting; (3) verifiable reinforcement optimization (VRO) refines outputs with verifiable, task-specific rewards. With only 2B parameters, RS-WorldModel surpasses open-source models up to 120 times larger on most spatiotemporal change question-answering metrics. It achieves an FID of 43.13 on text-guided future scene forecasting, outperforming all open-source baselines as well as the closed-source Gemini-2.5-Flash Image (Nano Banana).

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Understanding and anticipating vulnerability-related activity is a major challenge in cyber threat intelligence. This work investigates whether vulnerability sightings, such as proof-of-concept releases, detection templates, or online discussions, can be forecast over time. Building on our earlier work on VLAI, a transformer-based model that predicts vulnerability severity from textual descriptions, we examine whether severity scores can improve time-series forecasting as exogenous variables. We evaluate several approaches for short-term forecasting of sightings per vulnerability. First, we test SARIMAX models with and without log(x+1) transformations and VLAI-derived severity inputs. Although these adjustments provide limited improvements, SARIMAX remains poorly suited to sparse, short, and bursty vulnerability data. In practice, forecasts often produce overly wide confidence intervals and sometimes unrealistic negative values. To better capture the discrete and event-driven nature of sightings, we then explore count-based methods such as Poisson regression. Early results show that these models produce more stable and interpretable forecasts, especially when sightings are aggregated weekly. We also discuss simpler operational alternatives, including exponential decay functions for short forecasting horizons, to estimate future activity without requiring long historical series. Overall, this study highlights both the potential and the limitations of forecasting rare and bursty cyber events, and provides practical guidance for integrating predictive analytics into vulnerability intelligence workflows.

Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information. Yet evaluating whether agents genuinely forecast requires more than final-answer accuracy: a model may be correct by recalling memorized training facts, citing fabricated evidence, or producing an unsupported causal story. We present WorldReasoner, an evaluation framework for temporally valid event forecasting. Each task gives an agent a resolved forecasting question, a simulated forecast date, and access only to evidence available before that date; after resolution, the framework scores the submitted probability, cited evidence, and optional causal event graph. WorldReasoner reports three complementary axes: outcome quality against resolved answers, evidence quality over cited sources, and reasoning quality against post-resolution hindsight graphs. The benchmark is built by an agentic construction pipeline that generates forecasting questions, collects time-stamped evidence, and builds hindsight reference graphs at scale, yielding 345 resolved tasks derived from 14,141 articles with graphs covering 8,087 extracted events. Across six controlled agent settings, temporally valid retrieval is the strongest driver of outcome accuracy; causal graph construction improves key-event recovery; and correct graph-enabled forecasts are more strongly grounded in key events and relevant sources, yet agents still struggle to convert grounded evidence into calibrated probabilities.

Vegetation monitoring under climate stress requires answering not only how it will evolve given the expected weather, but how it would respond to alternative meteorological conditions. Forecasting models return the expected vegetation state for the observed weather and cannot answer these scenario-conditioned questions, because future weather is fixed to the recorded trajectory. We present VegSim, a geospatial world model for scenario-conditioned vegetation simulation. VegSim infers a latent vegetation state from sparse satellite-derived NDVI histories, past meteorological covariates, and static spatial context, propagates it forward under future weather forcing through recurrent latent dynamics, and decodes predictive NDVI quantiles at each lead time. Because future forcing enters as a controllable input, the same trained model supports probabilistic forecasting under observed weather and conditional simulation under user-defined meteorological forcing, without supervision on scenario responses. We evaluate VegSim on GreenEarthNet across in-distribution data and spatial, temporal, and joint spatial-temporal shift, where it achieves strong point and probabilistic accuracy against time series and Earth observation forecasting baselines while using a compact architecture. We then simulate vegetation responses across Europe under four meteorological scenarios, and in a France summer 2022 case study, obtaining spatially coherent patterns consistent with known sensitivity to temperature and precipitation. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/vegsim.

Weather forecasts are fundamentally uncertain, so predicting the range of probable weather scenarios is crucial for important decisions, from warning the public about hazardous weather, to planning renewable energy use. Here, we introduce GenCast, a probabilistic weather model with greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world, the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ensemble forecast, ENS. Unlike traditional approaches, which are based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), GenCast is a machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) method, trained on decades of reanalysis data. GenCast generates an ensemble of stochastic 15-day global forecasts, at 12-hour steps and 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution, for over 80 surface and atmospheric variables, in 8 minutes. It has greater skill than ENS on 97.4% of 1320 targets we evaluated, and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclones, and wind power production. This work helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting, where critical weather-dependent decisions are made with greater accuracy and efficiency.

Traditional time-series forecasting often focuses only on minimizing prediction errors, ignoring the specific requirements of real-world applications that employ them. This paper presents a new training methodology, which allows a forecasting model to dynamically adjust its focus based on the importance of forecast ranges specified by the end application. Unlike previous methods that fix these ranges beforehand, our training approach breaks down predictions over the entire signal range into smaller segments, which are then dynamically weighted and combined to produce accurate forecasts. We tested our method on standard datasets, including a new dataset from wireless communication, and found that not only it improves prediction accuracy but also improves the performance of end application employing the forecasting model. This research provides a basis for creating forecasting systems that better connect prediction and decision-making in various practical applications.

Diffusion models offer a physically grounded framework for probabilistic weather forecasting, but their typical reliance on slow, iterative solvers during inference makes them impractical for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) applications where long lead-times and domain-driven calibration are essential. To address this, we introduce Swift, a single-step consistency model that, for the first time, enables autoregressive finetuning of a probability flow model with a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) objective. This eliminates the need for multi-model ensembling or parameter perturbations. Results show that Swift produces skillful 6-hourly forecasts that remain stable for up to 75 days, running 39times faster than state-of-the-art diffusion baselines while achieving forecast skill competitive with the numerical-based, operational IFS ENS. This marks a step toward efficient and reliable ensemble forecasting from medium-range to seasonal-scales.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Geolocating images of a ground-level scene entails estimating the location on Earth where the picture was taken, in absence of GPS or other location metadata. Typically, methods are evaluated by measuring the Great Circle Distance (GCD) between a predicted location and ground truth. However, this measurement is limited because it only evaluates a single point, not estimates of regions or score heatmaps. This is especially important in applications to rural, wilderness and under-sampled areas, where finding the exact location may not be possible, and when used in aggregate systems that progressively narrow down locations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric, Recall vs Area (RvA), which measures the accuracy of estimated distributions of locations. RvA treats image geolocation results similarly to document retrieval, measuring recall as a function of area: For a ranked list of (possibly non-contiguous) predicted regions, we measure the accumulated area required for the region to contain the ground truth coordinate. This produces a curve similar to a precision-recall curve, where "precision" is replaced by square kilometers area, allowing evaluation of performance for different downstream search area budgets. Following directly from this view of the problem, we then examine a simple ensembling approach to global-scale image geolocation, which incorporates information from multiple sources to help address domain shift, and can readily incorporate multiple models, attribute predictors, and data sources. We study its effectiveness by combining the geolocation models GeoEstimation and the current SOTA GeoCLIP, with attribute predictors based on ORNL LandScan and ESA-CCI Land Cover. We find significant improvements in image geolocation for areas that are under-represented in the training set, particularly non-urban areas, on both Im2GPS3k and Street View images.

FourCastNet 3 advances global weather modeling by implementing a scalable, geometric machine learning (ML) approach to probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The approach is designed to respect spherical geometry and to accurately model the spatially correlated probabilistic nature of the problem, resulting in stable spectra and realistic dynamics across multiple scales. FourCastNet 3 delivers forecasting accuracy that surpasses leading conventional ensemble models and rivals the best diffusion-based methods, while producing forecasts 8 to 60 times faster than these approaches. In contrast to other ML approaches, FourCastNet 3 demonstrates excellent probabilistic calibration and retains realistic spectra, even at extended lead times of up to 60 days. All of these advances are realized using a purely convolutional neural network architecture tailored for spherical geometry. Scalable and efficient large-scale training on 1024 GPUs and more is enabled by a novel training paradigm for combined model- and data-parallelism, inspired by domain decomposition methods in classical numerical models. Additionally, FourCastNet 3 enables rapid inference on a single GPU, producing a 60-day global forecast at 0.25{\deg}, 6-hourly resolution in under 4 minutes. Its computational efficiency, medium-range probabilistic skill, spectral fidelity, and rollout stability at subseasonal timescales make it a strong candidate for improving meteorological forecasting and early warning systems through large ensemble predictions.

To address the time-consuming and computationally intensive issues of traditional ART algorithms for flame combustion diagnosis, inspired by flame simulation technology, we propose a novel representation method for flames. By modeling the luminous process of flames and utilizing 2D projection images for supervision, our experimental validation shows that this model achieves an average structural similarity index of 0.96 between actual images and predicted 2D projections, along with a Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio of 39.05. Additionally, it saves approximately 34 times the computation time and about 10 times the memory compared to traditional algorithms.

Fire segmentation remains a critical challenge in computer vision due to flames' irregular boundaries, translucent edges, and highly variable intensities. While the Segment Anything Models (SAM and SAM2) have demonstrated impressive cross-domain generalization capabilities, their effectiveness in fire segmentation -- particularly under mobile deployment constraints -- remains largely unexplored. This paper presents the first comprehensive evaluation of SAM2 variants for fire segmentation, focusing on bounding box prompting strategies to enhance deployment feasibility. We systematically evaluate four SAM2.1 variants (tiny, small, base_plus, large) alongside mobile-oriented variants (TinySAM, MobileSAM) across three fire datasets using multiple prompting strategies: automatic, single positive point (SP), single positive point + single negative point (SP+SN), multiple positive points (MP), bounding box (Box), and hybrid variants (Box+SP and Box+MP). Our experimental results demonstrate that bounding box prompts consistently outperform automatic and single point-based approaches, with Box+MP achieving the highest mean IoU (0.64) and Dice coefficient (0.75) on the Khan dataset. Lightweight variants such as TinySAM and MobileSAM further reduce memory and computational costs, making them more suitable for latency-tolerant edge scenarios. Overall, this work provides critical insights for deploying promptable segmentation models in fire monitoring systems and establishes benchmarks for future research in domain-specific SAM applications. Code is available at: https://github.com/UEmmanuel5/ProFSAM

This paper proposes a vision-based fire and smoke segmentation system which use spatial, temporal and motion information to extract the desired regions from the video frames. The fusion of information is done using multiple features such as optical flow, divergence and intensity values. These features extracted from the images are used to segment the pixels into different classes in an unsupervised way. A comparative analysis is done by using multiple clustering algorithms for segmentation. Here the Markov Random Field performs more accurately than other segmentation algorithms since it characterizes the spatial interactions of pixels using a finite number of parameters. It builds a probabilistic image model that selects the most likely labeling using the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. This unsupervised approach is tested on various images and achieves a frame-wise fire detection rate of 95.39%. Hence this method can be used for early detection of fire in real-time and it can be incorporated into an indoor or outdoor surveillance system.

We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model simultaneously captures these amplitude-modulated seasonal cycles along with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which naturally emerges as an intrinsic feature of the system rather than a separate phenomenon. Using sixteen-dimensional regression based on four spatially distributed time series per variable, the model delivers unprecedented forecast accuracy for both interannual amplitude modulations and PDO evolution, maintaining skill beyond 36 months -- a substantial improvement over current operational and research forecasts, including machine learning methods. Predictions initialized in 2024 project that the PDO will remain in its negative phase through late 2026, implying reduced likelihood of severe marine heatwaves in the eastern North Pacific during this period. These findings have direct implications for regional climate impacts, including storm tracks, precipitation patterns, and marine ecosystem health. By treating seasonal and interannual variability as coupled rather than independent processes, this framework advances our understanding of North Pacific climate dynamics and provides a powerful tool for stakeholders managing climate-sensitive resources and planning adaptation strategies in regions strongly influenced by North Pacific conditions.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Air pollution (AP) poses a great threat to human health, and people are paying more attention than ever to its prediction. Accurate prediction of AP helps people to plan for their outdoor activities and aids protecting human health. In this paper, long-short term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been used to predict the future concentration of air pollutants (APS) in Macau. Additionally, meteorological data and data on the concentration of APS have been utilized. Moreover, in Macau, some air quality monitoring stations (AQMSs) have less observed data in quantity, and, at the same time, some AQMSs recorded less observed data of certain types of APS. Therefore, the transfer learning and pre-trained neural networks have been employed to assist AQMSs with less observed data to build a neural network with high prediction accuracy. The experimental sample covers a period longer than 12-year and includes daily measurements from several APS as well as other more classical meteorological values. Records from five stations, four out of them are AQMSs and the remaining one is an automatic weather station, have been prepared from the aforesaid period and eventually underwent to computational intelligence techniques to build and extract a prediction knowledge-based system. As shown by experimentation, LSTM RNNs initialized with transfer learning methods have higher prediction accuracy; it incurred shorter training time than randomly initialized recurrent neural networks.

This research explores the integration of large language models (LLMs) into scientific data assimilation, focusing on combustion science as a case study. Leveraging foundational models integrated with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework, the study introduces an approach to process diverse combustion research data, spanning experimental studies, simulations, and literature. The multifaceted nature of combustion research emphasizes the critical role of knowledge processing in navigating and extracting valuable information from a vast and diverse pool of sources. The developed approach minimizes computational and economic expenses while optimizing data privacy and accuracy. It incorporates prompt engineering and offline open-source LLMs, offering user autonomy in selecting base models. The study provides a thorough examination of text segmentation strategies, conducts comparative studies between LLMs, and explores various optimized prompts to demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework. By incorporating an external database, the framework outperforms a conventional LLM in generating accurate responses and constructing robust arguments. Additionally, the study delves into the investigation of optimized prompt templates for the purpose of efficient extraction of scientific literature. The research addresses concerns related to hallucinations and false research articles by introducing a custom workflow developed with a detection algorithm to filter out inaccuracies. Despite identified areas for improvement, the framework consistently delivers accurate domain-specific responses with minimal human oversight. The prompt-agnostic approach introduced holds promise for future deliberations. The study underscores the significance of integrating LLMs and knowledge processing techniques in scientific research, providing a foundation for advancements in data assimilation and utilization.

Time series forecasting is not just numerical extrapolation, but often requires reasoning with unstructured contextual data such as news or events. While specialized Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at forecasting based on numerical patterns, they remain unaware to real-world textual signals. Conversely, while LLMs are emerging as zero-shot forecasters, their performance remains uneven across domains and contextual grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce Nexus, a multi-agent forecasting framework that decomposes prediction into specialized stages: isolating macro-level and micro-level temporal fluctuations, and integrating contextual information when available before synthesizing a final forecast. This decomposition enables Nexus to adapt from seasonal signals to volatile, event-driven information without relying on external statistical anchors or monolithic prompting. We show that current-generation LLMs possess substantially stronger intrinsic forecasting ability than previously recognized, depending critically on how numerical and contextual reasoning are organized. Evaluated on data strictly succeeding LLM knowledge cutoffs spanning Zillow real estate metrics and volatile stock market equities, Nexus consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and strong LLM baselines. Beyond numerical accuracy, Nexus produces high-quality reasoning traces that explicitly show the fundamental drivers behind each forecast. Our results establish that real-world forecasting is an agentic reasoning problem extending well beyond only sequence modeling.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting, where generating stable and accurate rollout forecasts remains challenging, Our method, DYffusion, leverages the temporal dynamics in the data, directly coupling it with the diffusion steps in the model. We train a stochastic, time-conditioned interpolator and a forecaster network that mimic the forward and reverse processes of standard diffusion models, respectively. DYffusion naturally facilitates multi-step and long-range forecasting, allowing for highly flexible, continuous-time sampling trajectories and the ability to trade-off performance with accelerated sampling at inference time. In addition, the dynamics-informed diffusion process in DYffusion imposes a strong inductive bias and significantly improves computational efficiency compared to traditional Gaussian noise-based diffusion models. Our approach performs competitively on probabilistic forecasting of complex dynamics in sea surface temperatures, Navier-Stokes flows, and spring mesh systems.

Storm-scale convection-allowing models (CAMs) are an important tool for predicting the evolution of thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems that result in damaging extreme weather. By explicitly resolving convective dynamics within the atmosphere they afford meteorologists the nuance needed to provide outlook on hazard. Deep learning models have thus far not proven skilful at km-scale atmospheric simulation, despite being competitive at coarser resolution with state-of-the-art global, medium-range weather forecasting. We present a generative diffusion model called StormCast, which emulates the high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model-NOAA's state-of-the-art 3km operational CAM. StormCast autoregressively predicts 99 state variables at km scale using a 1-hour time step, with dense vertical resolution in the atmospheric boundary layer, conditioned on 26 synoptic variables. We present evidence of successfully learnt km-scale dynamics including competitive 1-6 hour forecast skill for composite radar reflectivity alongside physically realistic convective cluster evolution, moist updrafts, and cold pool morphology. StormCast predictions maintain realistic power spectra for multiple predicted variables across multi-hour forecasts. Together, these results establish the potential for autoregressive ML to emulate CAMs -- opening up new km-scale frontiers for regional ML weather prediction and future climate hazard dynamical downscaling.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

Visibility of natural landmarks such as Mount Fuji is a defining factor in both tourism planning and visitor experience, yet it remains difficult to predict due to rapidly changing atmospheric conditions. We present FujiView, a multimodal learning framework and dataset for predicting scenic visibility by fusing webcam imagery with structured meteorological data. Our late-fusion approach combines image-derived class probabilities with numerical weather features to classify visibility into five categories. The dataset currently comprises over 100,000 webcam images paired with concurrent and forecasted weather conditions from more than 40 cameras around Mount Fuji, and continues to expand; it will be released to support further research in environmental forecasting. Experiments show that YOLO-based vision features dominate short-term horizons such as "nowcasting" and "samedaycasting", while weather-driven forecasts increasingly take over as the primary predictive signal beyond +1d. Late fusion consistently yields the highest overall accuracy, achieving ACC of approx 0.89 for same-day prediction and up to 84% for next-day forecasts. These results position Scenic Visibility Forecasting (SVF) as a new benchmark task for multimodal learning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate partial forecasting competence across social, political, and economic events. Yet, their predictive ability varies sharply with domain structure and prompt framing. We investigate how forecasting performance varies with different model families on real-world questions about events that happened beyond the model cutoff date. We analyze how context, question type, and external knowledge affect accuracy and calibration, and how adding factual news context modifies belief formation and failure modes. Our results show that forecasting ability is highly variable as it depends on what, and how, we ask.

Smoke segmentation is critical for wildfire management and industrial safety applications. Traditional visible-light-based methods face limitations due to insufficient spectral information, particularly struggling with cloud interference and semi-transparent smoke regions. To address these challenges, we introduce hyperspectral imaging for smoke segmentation and present the first hyperspectral smoke segmentation dataset (HSSDataset) with carefully annotated samples collected from over 18,000 frames across 20 real-world scenarios using a Many-to-One annotations protocol. However, different spectral bands exhibit varying discriminative capabilities across spatial regions, necessitating adaptive band weighting strategies. We decompose this into three technical challenges: spectral interaction contamination, limited spectral pattern modeling, and complex weighting router problems. We propose a mixture of prototypes (MoP) network with: (1) Band split for spectral isolation, (2) Prototype-based spectral representation for diverse patterns, and (3) Dual-level router for adaptive spatial-aware band weighting. We further construct a multispectral dataset (MSSDataset) with RGB-infrared images. Extensive experiments validate superior performance across both hyperspectral and multispectral modalities, establishing a new paradigm for spectral-based smoke segmentation.

The Copernicus Regional Reanalysis for Europe, CERRA, is a high-resolution regional reanalysis dataset for the European domain. In recent years it has shown significant utility across various climate-related tasks, ranging from forecasting and climate change research to renewable energy prediction, resource management, air quality risk assessment, and the forecasting of rare events, among others. Unfortunately, the availability of CERRA is lagging two years behind the current date, due to constraints in acquiring the requisite external data and the intensive computational demands inherent in its generation. As a solution, this paper introduces a novel method using diffusion models to approximate CERRA downscaling in a data-driven manner, without additional informations. By leveraging the lower resolution ERA5 dataset, which provides boundary conditions for CERRA, we approach this as a super-resolution task. Focusing on wind speed around Italy, our model, trained on existing CERRA data, shows promising results, closely mirroring original CERRA data. Validation with in-situ observations further confirms the model's accuracy in approximating ground measurements.

Accurate air quality forecasting is essential for public health and environmental sustainability, but remains challenging due to the complex pollutant dynamics. Existing deep learning methods often model pollutant dynamics as an instantaneous process, overlooking the intrinsic delays in pollutant propagation. Thus, we propose AirDDE, the first neural delay differential equation framework in this task that integrates delay modeling into a continuous-time pollutant evolution under physical guidance. Specifically, two novel components are introduced: (1) a memory-augmented attention module that retrieves globally and locally historical features, which can adaptively capture delay effects modulated by multifactor data; and (2) a physics-guided delay evolving function, grounded in the diffusion-advection equation, that models diffusion, delayed advection, and source/sink terms, which can capture delay-aware pollutant accumulation patterns with physical plausibility. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that AirDDE achieves the state-of-the-art forecasting performance with an average MAE reduction of 8.79\% over the best baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/w2obin/airdde-aaai.

Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).

This work describes a process for efficiently fine-tuning the GraphCast data-driven forecast model to simulate another analysis system, here the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Using two years of training data (July 2019 -- December 2021) and 37 GPU-days of computation to tune the 37-level, quarter-degree version of GraphCast, the resulting model significantly outperforms both the unmodified GraphCast and operational forecast, showing significant forecast skill in the troposphere over lead times from 1 to 10 days. This fine-tuning is accomplished through abbreviating DeepMind's original training curriculum for GraphCast, relying on a shorter single-step forecast stage to accomplish the bulk of the adaptation work and consolidating the autoregressive stages into separate 12hr, 1d, 2d, and 3d stages with larger learning rates. Additionally, training over 3d forecasts is split into two sub-steps to conserve host memory while maintaining a strong correlation with training over the full period.

This study focuses on forecasting major (>=M-class) solar flares that can severely impact the near-Earth environment. We construct two types of datasets using the Space Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and develop a flare prediction network based on large language model (LLMFlareNet). We apply SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to explain the model predictions. We develop an operational forecasting system based on the LLMFlareNet model. We adopt a daily mode for performance comparison across various operational forecasting systems under identical active region (AR) number and prediction date, using daily operational observational data. The main results are as follows. (1) Through ablation experiments and comparison with baseline models, LLMFlareNet achieves the best TSS scores of 0.720 +/- 0.040 on the ten cross-validation (CV) dataset with mixed ARs. (2) By both global and local SHAP analyses, we identify that R_VALUE is the most influential physical feature for the prediction of LLMFlareNet, aligning with flare magnetic reconnection theory. (3) In daily mode, LLMFlareNet achieves TSS scores of 0.680/0.571 (0.689/0.661, respectively) on the dataset with single/mixed ARs, markedly outperforming NASA/CCMC (SolarFlareNet, respectively). This work introduces the first application of a large language model as a universal computation engine with explainability method in this domain, and presents the first comparison between operational flare forecasting systems in daily mode. The proposed LLMFlareNet-based system demonstrates substantial improvements over existing systems.

In this paper, we present Pangu-Weather, a deep learning based system for fast and accurate global weather forecast. For this purpose, we establish a data-driven environment by downloading 43 years of hourly global weather data from the 5th generation of ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) data and train a few deep neural networks with about 256 million parameters in total. The spatial resolution of forecast is 0.25^circtimes0.25^circ, comparable to the ECMWF Integrated Forecast Systems (IFS). More importantly, for the first time, an AI-based method outperforms state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy (latitude-weighted RMSE and ACC) of all factors (e.g., geopotential, specific humidity, wind speed, temperature, etc.) and in all time ranges (from one hour to one week). There are two key strategies to improve the prediction accuracy: (i) designing a 3D Earth Specific Transformer (3DEST) architecture that formulates the height (pressure level) information into cubic data, and (ii) applying a hierarchical temporal aggregation algorithm to alleviate cumulative forecast errors. In deterministic forecast, Pangu-Weather shows great advantages for short to medium-range forecast (i.e., forecast time ranges from one hour to one week). Pangu-Weather supports a wide range of downstream forecast scenarios, including extreme weather forecast (e.g., tropical cyclone tracking) and large-member ensemble forecast in real-time. Pangu-Weather not only ends the debate on whether AI-based methods can surpass conventional NWP methods, but also reveals novel directions for improving deep learning weather forecast systems.

Long-term activity forecasting is an especially challenging research problem because it requires understanding the temporal relationships between observed actions, as well as the variability and complexity of human activities. Despite relying on strong supervision via expensive human annotations, state-of-the-art forecasting approaches often generalize poorly to unseen data. To alleviate this issue, we propose Multiscale Video Pretraining (MVP), a novel self-supervised pretraining approach that learns robust representations for forecasting by learning to predict contextualized representations of future video clips over multiple timescales. MVP is based on our observation that actions in videos have a multiscale nature, where atomic actions typically occur at a short timescale and more complex actions may span longer timescales. We compare MVP to state-of-the-art self-supervised video learning approaches on downstream long-term forecasting tasks including long-term action anticipation and video summary prediction. Our comprehensive experiments across the Ego4D and Epic-Kitchens-55/100 datasets demonstrate that MVP out-performs state-of-the-art methods by significant margins. Notably, MVP obtains a relative performance gain of over 20% accuracy in video summary forecasting over existing methods.

Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity - particularly during periods of rapid intensification and rapid weakening - remains a challenge for operational meteorology, with high-stakes implications for disaster preparedness and infrastructure resilience. Recent advances in machine learning have yielded notable progress in TC prediction; however, most existing systems provide forecasts that degrade rapidly in extreme regimes and lack long-range consistency. Here we introduce TIFNet, a transformer-based forecasting model that generates non-iterative, 5-day intensity trajectories by integrating high-resolution global forecasts with a historical-evolution fusion mechanism. Trained on reanalysis data and fine-tuned with operational data, TIFNet consistently outperforms operational numerical models across all forecast horizons, delivering robust improvements across weak, strong, and super typhoon categories. In rapid intensity change regimes - long regarded as the most difficult to forecast - TIFNet reduces forecast error by 29-43% relative to current operational baselines. These results represent a substantial advance in artificial-intelligence-based TC intensity forecasting, especially under extreme conditions where traditional models consistently underperform.

The state of the art for physical hazard prediction from weather and climate requires expensive km-scale numerical simulations driven by coarser resolution global inputs. Here, a generative diffusion architecture is explored for downscaling such global inputs to km-scale, as a cost-effective machine learning alternative. The model is trained to predict 2km data from a regional weather model over Taiwan, conditioned on a 25km global reanalysis. To address the large resolution ratio, different physics involved at different scales and prediction of channels beyond those in the input data, we employ a two-step approach where a UNet predicts the mean and a corrector diffusion (CorrDiff) model predicts the residual. CorrDiff exhibits encouraging skill in bulk MAE and CRPS scores. The predicted spectra and distributions from CorrDiff faithfully recover important power law relationships in the target data. Case studies of coherent weather phenomena show that CorrDiff can help sharpen wind and temperature gradients that co-locate with intense rainfall in cold front, and can help intensify typhoons and synthesize rain band structures. Calibration of model uncertainty remains challenging. The prospect of unifying methods like CorrDiff with coarser resolution global weather models implies a potential for global-to-regional multi-scale machine learning simulation.

This document presents the Center for Robot Assisted Search And Rescue - Uncrewed Aerial Systems - Disaster Response Overhead Inspection Dataset (CRASAR-U-DROIDs) for building damage assessment and spatial alignment collected from small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) geospatial imagery. This dataset is motivated by the increasing use of sUAS in disaster response and the lack of previous work in utilizing high-resolution geospatial sUAS imagery for machine learning and computer vision models, the lack of alignment with operational use cases, and with hopes of enabling further investigations between sUAS and satellite imagery. The CRASAR-U-DRIODs dataset consists of fifty-two (52) orthomosaics from ten (10) federally declared disasters (Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Ida, Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Idalia, Hurricane Laura, Hurricane Michael, Musset Bayou Fire, Mayfield Tornado, Kilauea Eruption, and Champlain Towers Collapse) spanning 67.98 square kilometers (26.245 square miles), containing 21,716 building polygons and damage labels, and 7,880 adjustment annotations. The imagery was tiled and presented in conjunction with overlaid building polygons to a pool of 130 annotators who provided human judgments of damage according to the Joint Damage Scale. These annotations were then reviewed via a two-stage review process in which building polygon damage labels were first reviewed individually and then again by committee. Additionally, the building polygons have been aligned spatially to precisely overlap with the imagery to enable more performant machine learning models to be trained. It appears that CRASAR-U-DRIODs is the largest labeled dataset of sUAS orthomosaic imagery.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Precipitation nowcasting is a critical spatio-temporal prediction task for society to prevent severe damage owing to extreme weather events. Despite the advances in this field, the complex and stochastic nature of this task still poses challenges to existing approaches. Specifically, deterministic models tend to produce blurry predictions while generative models often struggle with poor accuracy. In this paper, we present a simple yet effective model architecture termed STLDM, a diffusion-based model that learns the latent representation from end to end alongside both the Variational Autoencoder and the conditioning network. STLDM decomposes this task into two stages: a deterministic forecasting stage handled by the conditioning network, and an enhancement stage performed by the latent diffusion model. Experimental results on multiple radar datasets demonstrate that STLDM achieves superior performance compared to the state of the art, while also improving inference efficiency. The code is available in https://github.com/sqfoo/stldm_official.

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of most forecasting methods is restricted in data-sparse commercial applications. While there is recent work in the setting of very limited initial data (so-called `zero-shot' forecasting), its performance is inconsistent depending on the data used for pretraining. In this work, we take a different approach and devise ForecastPFN, the first zero-shot forecasting model trained purely on a novel synthetic data distribution. ForecastPFN is a prior-data fitted network, trained to approximate Bayesian inference, which can make predictions on a new time series dataset in a single forward pass. Through extensive experiments, we show that zero-shot predictions made by ForecastPFN are more accurate and faster compared to state-of-the-art forecasting methods, even when the other methods are allowed to train on hundreds of additional in-distribution data points.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

We propose a method to reconstruct dynamic fire in 3D from a limited set of camera views with a Gaussian-based spatiotemporal representation. Capturing and reconstructing fire and its dynamics is highly challenging due to its volatile nature, transparent quality, and multitude of high-frequency features. Despite these challenges, we aim to reconstruct fire from only three views, which consequently requires solving for under-constrained geometry. We solve this by separating the static background from the dynamic fire region by combining dense multi-view stereo images with monocular depth priors. The fire is initialized as a 3D flow field, obtained by fusing per-view dense optical flow projections. To capture the high frequency features of fire, each 3D Gaussian encodes a lifetime and linear velocity to match the dense optical flow. To ensure sub-frame temporal alignment across cameras we employ a custom hardware synchronization pattern -- allowing us to reconstruct fire with affordable commodity hardware. Our quantitative and qualitative validations across numerous reconstruction experiments demonstrate robust performance for diverse and challenging real fire scenarios.

Armed conflict has led to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) - individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet prediction of when large fluxes of IDPs will cross into an area remains a major challenge for aid delivery organizations. Accurate forecasting of IDP migration would empower humanitarian aid groups to more effectively allocate resources during conflicts. We show that monthly flow of IDPs from province to province in both Syria and Yemen can be accurately forecasted one month in advance, using publicly available data. We model monthly IDP flow using data on food price, fuel price, wage, geospatial, and news data. We find that machine learning approaches can more accurately forecast migration trends than baseline persistence models. Our findings thus potentially enable proactive aid allocation for IDPs in anticipation of forecasted arrivals.

Semantic segmentation and change detection are two fundamental challenges in remote sensing, requiring models to capture either spatial semantics or temporal differences from satellite imagery. Existing deep learning models often struggle with temporal inconsistencies or in capturing fine-grained spatial structures, require extensive pretraining, and offer limited interpretability - especially in real-world remote sensing scenarios. Recent advances in diffusion models show that Gaussian noise can be systematically leveraged to learn expressive data representations through denoising. Motivated by this, we investigate whether the noise process in diffusion models can be effectively utilized for discriminative tasks. We propose Noise2Map, a unified diffusion-based framework that repurposes the denoising process for fast, end-to-end discriminative learning. Unlike prior work that uses diffusion only for generation or feature extraction, Noise2Map directly predicts semantic or change maps using task-specific noise schedules and timestep conditioning, avoiding the costly sampling procedures of traditional diffusion models. The model is pretrained via self-supervised denoising and fine-tuned with supervision, enabling both interpretability and robustness. Our architecture supports both tasks (SS and CD) through a shared backbone and task-specific noise schedulers. Extensive evaluations on the SpaceNet7, WHU, and xView2 buildings damaged by wildfires datasets demonstrate that Noise2Map ranks on average 1st among seven models on semantic segmentation and 1st on change detection by a cross-dataset rank metric (average F1 primary, IoU tie-break). Ablation studies highlight the robustness of our model against different training noise schedulers and timestep control in the diffusion process, as well as the ability of the model to perform multi-task learning.

Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

AI weather models now rival leading numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems in medium-range skill. However, almost all still rely on NWP data assimilation (DA) to provide initial conditions, tying them to expensive infrastructure and limiting the practical speed and accuracy gains of ML. More recently, ML-based DA systems have been proposed, which are often trained and evaluated end-to-end with a forecast model, making it difficult to assess the quality of their analysis fields. We introduce HealDA, a global ML-based DA system that maps a short window of satellite and conventional observations directly to a 1° atmospheric state on the HEALPix grid, using a smaller sensor suite than operational NWP and no background forecast at runtime. We treat HealDA strictly as a DA module: its analyses are used to initialize off-the-shelf ML forecast models without any fine-tuning of either. For a variety of off-the-shelf ML forecast models, including FourCastNet3 (FCN3), Aurora, and FengWu, HealDA-initialized forecasts lose less than one day of effective lead time when scored against ERA5. HealDA-initialized FCN3 ensembles similarly trail those of the ECMWF IFS ENS system by < 24 h. We find that forecast error growth in these models i unchanged from HealDA initialization, and the skill gap primarily arises from the larger initial error of the HealDA analysis. Spectral analysis reveals that this stems from overfitting to the large scales and upper-tropospheric fields. We also demonstrate that small changes in the verification setup can shift apparent skill by 12--24h, underscoring the need for consistent scoring. Taken together, these results clarify the current performance of ML-based DA systems and show that a relatively simple, background-free network can already provide initial conditions that are usable by state-of-the-art ML forecast models with only modest loss in medium-range skill.

Severe convective weather events, such as hail, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, often occur quickly yet cause significant damage, costing billions of dollars every year. This highlights the importance of forecasting severe weather threats hours in advance to better prepare meteorologists and residents in at-risk areas. Can modern large foundation models perform such forecasting? Existing weather benchmarks typically focus only on predicting time-series changes in certain weather parameters (e.g., temperature, moisture) with text-only features. In this work, we introduce WeatherQA, the first multimodal dataset designed for machines to reason about complex combinations of weather parameters (a.k.a., ingredients) and predict severe weather in real-world scenarios. The dataset includes over 8,000 (multi-images, text) pairs for diverse severe weather events. Each pair contains rich information crucial for forecasting -- the images describe the ingredients capturing environmental instability, surface observations, and radar reflectivity, and the text contains forecast analyses written by human experts. With WeatherQA, we evaluate state-of-the-art vision language models, including GPT4, Claude3.5, Gemini-1.5, and a fine-tuned Llama3-based VLM, by designing two challenging tasks: (1) multi-choice QA for predicting affected area and (2) classification of the development potential of severe convection. These tasks require deep understanding of domain knowledge (e.g., atmospheric dynamics) and complex reasoning over multimodal data (e.g., interactions between weather parameters). We show a substantial gap between the strongest VLM, GPT4o, and human reasoning. Our comprehensive case study with meteorologists further reveals the weaknesses of the models, suggesting that better training and data integration are necessary to bridge this gap. WeatherQA link: https://github.com/chengqianma/WeatherQA.

Forecasting what will happen next is a critical skill for general-purpose systems that plan or act in the world at different levels of abstraction. In this paper, we identify a strong correlation between a vision model's perceptual ability and its generalist forecasting performance over short time horizons. This trend holds across a diverse set of pretrained models-including those trained generatively-and across multiple levels of abstraction, from raw pixels to depth, point tracks, and object motion. The result is made possible by a novel generalist forecasting framework that operates on any frozen vision backbone: we train latent diffusion models to forecast future features in the frozen representation space, which are then decoded via lightweight, task-specific readouts. To enable consistent evaluation across tasks, we introduce distributional metrics that compare distributional properties directly in the space of downstream tasks and apply this framework to nine models and four tasks. Our results highlight the value of bridging representation learning and generative modeling for temporally grounded video understanding.

3D object localisation based on a sequence of camera measurements is essential for safety-critical surveillance tasks, such as drone-based wildfire monitoring. Localisation of objects detected with a camera can typically be solved with dense depth estimation or 3D scene reconstruction. However, in the context of distant objects or tasks limited by the amount of available computational resources, neither solution is feasible. In this paper, we show that the task can be solved using particle filters for both single and multiple target scenarios. The method was studied using a 3D simulation and a drone-based image segmentation sequence with global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-based camera pose estimates. The results showed that a particle filter can be used to solve practical localisation tasks based on camera poses and image segments in these situations where other solutions fail. The particle filter is independent of the detection method, making it flexible for new tasks. The study also demonstrates that drone-based wildfire monitoring can be conducted using the proposed method paired with a pre-existing image segmentation model.

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events, including heatwaves, which results in increased thermal discomfort and mortality rates. While global mitigation action is undoubtedly necessary, so is climate adaptation, e.g., through climate-sensitive urban planning. Among the most promising strategies is harnessing the benefits of urban trees in shading and cooling pedestrian-level environments. Our work investigates the challenge of optimal placement of such trees. Physical simulations can estimate the radiative and thermal impact of trees on human thermal comfort but induce high computational costs. This rules out optimization of tree placements over large areas and considering effects over longer time scales. Hence, we employ neural networks to simulate the point-wise mean radiant temperatures--a driving factor of outdoor human thermal comfort--across various time scales, spanning from daily variations to extended time scales of heatwave events and even decades. To optimize tree placements, we harness the innate local effect of trees within the iterated local search framework with tailored adaptations. We show the efficacy of our approach across a wide spectrum of study areas and time scales. We believe that our approach is a step towards empowering decision-makers, urban designers and planners to proactively and effectively assess the potential of urban trees to mitigate heat stress.

Significant progress in the development of highly adaptable and reusable Artificial Intelligence (AI) models is expected to have a significant impact on Earth science and remote sensing. Foundation models are pre-trained on large unlabeled datasets through self-supervision, and then fine-tuned for various downstream tasks with small labeled datasets. This paper introduces a first-of-a-kind framework for the efficient pre-training and fine-tuning of foundational models on extensive geospatial data. We have utilized this framework to create Prithvi, a transformer-based geospatial foundational model pre-trained on more than 1TB of multispectral satellite imagery from the Harmonized Landsat-Sentinel 2 (HLS) dataset. Our study demonstrates the efficacy of our framework in successfully fine-tuning Prithvi to a range of Earth observation tasks that have not been tackled by previous work on foundation models involving multi-temporal cloud gap imputation, flood mapping, wildfire scar segmentation, and multi-temporal crop segmentation. Our experiments show that the pre-trained model accelerates the fine-tuning process compared to leveraging randomly initialized weights. In addition, pre-trained Prithvi compares well against the state-of-the-art, e.g., outperforming a conditional GAN model in multi-temporal cloud imputation by up to 5pp (or 5.7%) in the structural similarity index. Finally, due to the limited availability of labeled data in the field of Earth observation, we gradually reduce the quantity of available labeled data for refining the model to evaluate data efficiency and demonstrate that data can be decreased significantly without affecting the model's accuracy. The pre-trained 100 million parameter model and corresponding fine-tuning workflows have been released publicly as open source contributions to the global Earth sciences community through Hugging Face.

The increasing demand for commodities is leading to changes in land use worldwide. In the tropics, deforestation, which causes high carbon emissions and threatens biodiversity, is often linked to agricultural expansion. While the need for deforestation-free global supply chains is widely recognized, making progress in practice remains a challenge. Here, we propose an automated approach that aims to support conservation and sustainable land use planning decisions by mapping tropical landscapes at large scale and high spatial resolution following the High Carbon Stock (HCS) approach. A deep learning approach is developed that estimates canopy height for each 10 m Sentinel-2 pixel by learning from sparse GEDI LIDAR reference data, achieving an overall RMSE of 6.3 m. We show that these wall-to-wall maps of canopy top height are predictive for classifying HCS forests and degraded areas with an overall accuracy of 86 % and produce a first high carbon stock map for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

Natural disasters, such as floods, tornadoes, or wildfires, are increasingly pervasive as the Earth undergoes global warming. It is difficult to predict when and where an incident will occur, so timely emergency response is critical to saving the lives of those endangered by destructive events. Fortunately, technology can play a role in these situations. Social media posts can be used as a low-latency data source to understand the progression and aftermath of a disaster, yet parsing this data is tedious without automated methods. Prior work has mostly focused on text-based filtering, yet image and video-based filtering remains largely unexplored. In this work, we present the Incidents1M Dataset, a large-scale multi-label dataset which contains 977,088 images, with 43 incident and 49 place categories. We provide details of the dataset construction, statistics and potential biases; introduce and train a model for incident detection; and perform image-filtering experiments on millions of images on Flickr and Twitter. We also present some applications on incident analysis to encourage and enable future work in computer vision for humanitarian aid. Code, data, and models are available at http://incidentsdataset.csail.mit.edu.