Daily Papers

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

The Internet of Things is an example domain where data is perpetually generated in ever-increasing quantities, reflecting the proliferation of connected devices and the formation of continuous data streams over time. Consequently, the demand for ad-hoc, cost-effective machine learning solutions must adapt to this evolving data influx. This study tackles the task of offloading in small gateways, exacerbated by their dynamic availability over time. An approach leveraging CPU utilization metrics using online and continual machine learning techniques is proposed to predict gateway availability. These methods are compared to popular machine learning algorithms and a recent time-series foundation model, Lag-Llama, for fine-tuned and zero-shot setups. Their performance is benchmarked on a dataset of CPU utilization measurements over time from an IoT gateway and focuses on model metrics such as prediction errors, training and inference times, and memory consumption. Our primary objective is to study new efficient ways to predict CPU performance in IoT environments. Across various scenarios, our findings highlight that ensemble and online methods offer promising results for this task in terms of accuracy while maintaining a low resource footprint.

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with fully interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand process, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand arrives at the destination, is served from stock or recorded as backlog, and triggers replenishment through the network. The state vector tracks per-node on-hand inventory with outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, so the dynamics close as a Markov chain on a tractable state space whose transition kernel acts linearly on the empirical distribution of the state. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, and three conservation laws encoded in the Markov chain serve as verification tools when users extend the simulator. We release datasets at two catalogue scales (C=50 and C=200) with six scenario sweeps producing 30 additional rollouts and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations, exhibiting dynamics absent from fixed TSF benchmarks: variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, Lag-Llama) shows MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmarks. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands via Latin-hypercube perturbation of demand-side knobs, forward UQ from parameter uncertainty unavailable on standard TSF datasets, demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for the digital twin's forward UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH.

We introduce WildGuard -- an open, light-weight moderation tool for LLM safety that achieves three goals: (1) identifying malicious intent in user prompts, (2) detecting safety risks of model responses, and (3) determining model refusal rate. Together, WildGuard serves the increasing needs for automatic safety moderation and evaluation of LLM interactions, providing a one-stop tool with enhanced accuracy and broad coverage across 13 risk categories. While existing open moderation tools such as Llama-Guard2 score reasonably well in classifying straightforward model interactions, they lag far behind a prompted GPT-4, especially in identifying adversarial jailbreaks and in evaluating models' refusals, a key measure for evaluating safety behaviors in model responses. To address these challenges, we construct WildGuardMix, a large-scale and carefully balanced multi-task safety moderation dataset with 92K labeled examples that cover vanilla (direct) prompts and adversarial jailbreaks, paired with various refusal and compliance responses. WildGuardMix is a combination of WildGuardTrain, the training data of WildGuard, and WildGuardTest, a high-quality human-annotated moderation test set with 5K labeled items covering broad risk scenarios. Through extensive evaluations on WildGuardTest and ten existing public benchmarks, we show that WildGuard establishes state-of-the-art performance in open-source safety moderation across all the three tasks compared to ten strong existing open-source moderation models (e.g., up to 26.4% improvement on refusal detection). Importantly, WildGuard matches and sometimes exceeds GPT-4 performance (e.g., up to 3.9% improvement on prompt harmfulness identification). WildGuard serves as a highly effective safety moderator in an LLM interface, reducing the success rate of jailbreak attacks from 79.8% to 2.4%.

This paper presents FoFo, a pioneering benchmark for evaluating large language models' (LLMs) ability to follow complex, domain-specific formats, a crucial yet underexamined capability for their application as AI agents. Despite LLMs' advancements, existing benchmarks fail to assess their format-following proficiency adequately. FoFo fills this gap with a diverse range of real-world formats and instructions, developed through an AI-Human collaborative method. Our evaluation across both open-source (e.g., Llama 2, WizardLM) and closed-source (e.g., GPT-4, PALM2, Gemini) LLMs highlights three key findings: open-source models significantly lag behind closed-source ones in format adherence; LLMs' format-following performance is independent of their content generation quality; and LLMs' format proficiency varies across different domains. These insights suggest the need for specialized tuning for format-following skills and highlight FoFo's role in guiding the selection of domain-specific AI agents. FoFo is released here at https://github.com/SalesforceAIResearch/FoFo.

As large language models (LLMs) are continuously being developed, their evaluation becomes increasingly important yet challenging. This work proposes Chain-of-Thought Hub, an open-source evaluation suite on the multi-step reasoning capabilities of large language models. We are interested in this setting for two reasons: (1) from the behavior of GPT and PaLM model family, we observe that complex reasoning is likely to be a key differentiator between weaker and stronger LLMs; (2) we envisage large language models to become the next-generation computational platform and foster an ecosystem of LLM-based new applications, this naturally requires the foundation models to perform complex tasks that often involve the composition of linguistic and logical operations. Our approach is to compile a suite of challenging reasoning benchmarks to track the progress of LLMs. Our current results show that: (1) model scale clearly correlates with reasoning capabilities; (2) As of May 2023, Claude-v1.3 and PaLM-2 are the only two models that are comparable with GPT-4, while open-sourced models still lag behind; (3) LLaMA-65B performs closely to code-davinci-002, indicating that with successful further development such as reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), it has great potential to be close to GPT-3.5-Turbo. Our results also suggest that for the open-source efforts to catch up, the community may focus more on building better base models and exploring RLHF.

Vision-language models (VLMs) have made significant progress in recent visual-question-answering (VQA) benchmarks that evaluate complex visio-linguistic reasoning. However, are these models truly effective? In this work, we show that VLMs still struggle with natural images and questions that humans can easily answer, which we term natural adversarial samples. We also find it surprisingly easy to generate these VQA samples from natural image-text corpora using off-the-shelf models like CLIP and ChatGPT. We propose a semi-automated approach to collect a new benchmark, NaturalBench, for reliably evaluating VLMs with 10,000 human-verified VQA samples. Crucially, we adopt a vision-centric design by pairing each question with two images that yield different answers, preventing blind solutions from answering without using the images. This makes NaturalBench more challenging than previous benchmarks that can be solved with commonsense priors. We evaluate 53 state-of-the-art VLMs on NaturalBench, showing that models like LLaVA-OneVision, Cambrian-1, Llama3.2-Vision, Molmo, Qwen2-VL, and even GPT-4o lag 50%-70% behind human performance (over 90%). We analyze why NaturalBench is hard from two angles: (1) Compositionality: Solving NaturalBench requires diverse visio-linguistic skills, including understanding attribute bindings, object relationships, and advanced reasoning like logic and counting. To this end, unlike prior work that uses a single tag per sample, we tag each NaturalBench sample with 1 to 8 skill tags for fine-grained evaluation. (2) Biases: NaturalBench exposes severe biases in VLMs, as models often choose the same answer regardless of the image. Lastly, we apply our benchmark curation method to diverse data sources, including long captions (over 100 words) and non-English languages like Chinese and Hindi, highlighting its potential for dynamic evaluations of VLMs.

With the increasing prevalence of synthetic images, evaluating image authenticity and locating forgeries accurately while maintaining human interpretability remains a challenging task. Existing detection models primarily focus on simple authenticity classification, ultimately providing only a forgery probability or binary judgment, which offers limited explanatory insights into image authenticity. Moreover, while MLLM-based detection methods can provide more interpretable results, they still lag behind expert models in terms of pure authenticity classification accuracy. To address this, we propose DF-LLaVA, a simple yet effective framework that unlocks the intrinsic discrimination potential of MLLMs. Our approach first extracts latent knowledge from MLLMs and then injects it into training via prompts. This framework allows LLaVA to achieve outstanding detection accuracy exceeding expert models while still maintaining the interpretability offered by MLLMs. Extensive experiments confirm the superiority of our DF-LLaVA, achieving both high accuracy and explainability in synthetic image detection. Code is available online at: https://github.com/Eliot-Shen/DF-LLaVA.

We present ILLUME+ that leverages dual visual tokenization and a diffusion decoder to improve both deep semantic understanding and high-fidelity image generation. Existing unified models have struggled to simultaneously handle the three fundamental capabilities in a unified model: understanding, generation, and editing. Models like Chameleon and EMU3 utilize VQGAN for image discretization, due to the lack of deep semantic interaction, they lag behind specialist models like LLaVA in visual understanding tasks. To mitigate this, LaViT and ILLUME employ semantic encoders for tokenization, but they struggle with image editing due to poor texture preservation. Meanwhile, Janus series decouples the input and output image representation, limiting their abilities to seamlessly handle interleaved image-text understanding and generation. In contrast, ILLUME+ introduces a unified dual visual tokenizer, DualViTok, which preserves both fine-grained textures and text-aligned semantics while enabling a coarse-to-fine image representation strategy for multimodal understanding and generation. Additionally, we employ a diffusion model as the image detokenizer for enhanced generation quality and efficient super-resolution. ILLUME+ follows a continuous-input, discrete-output scheme within the unified MLLM and adopts a progressive training procedure that supports dynamic resolution across the vision tokenizer, MLLM, and diffusion decoder. This design allows for flexible and efficient context-aware image editing and generation across diverse tasks. ILLUME+ (3B) exhibits competitive performance against existing unified MLLMs and specialized models across multimodal understanding, generation, and editing benchmarks. With its strong performance, ILLUME+ provides a scalable and versatile foundation for future multimodal applications. Project Page: https://illume-unified-mllm.github.io/.