""" CausalGrok — M1: Layer-wise Linear Probing Nilesh The mechanistic claim: Before grokking: hospital probe HIGH (model uses stain shortcut), tumor probe LOW in early layers At transition: hospital probe DROPS, tumor probe RISES After grokking: inverted — tumor high, hospital low If OOD acc jump + hospital probe drop + tumor probe rise all happen at the same epoch → mechanistic claim proven. That's Figure 2 of the paper. Usage: # Run on all saved checkpoints from a run python -m experiments.mechinterp_m1 \ --run_dir experiments/runs/ \ --data_root data/wilds # Run on latest checkpoint only (quick check while training) python -m experiments.mechinterp_m1 \ --run_dir experiments/runs/ \ --data_root data/wilds \ --latest_only # Run on ALL camelyon_v2 grokking runs python -m experiments.mechinterp_m1 \ --all_runs \ --data_root data/wilds Output per run: experiments/runs//mechinterp/ m1_probe_heatmap.png ← epoch × layer, hospital probe acc m1_tumor_heatmap.png ← epoch × layer, tumor probe acc m1_probe_curves.png ← hospital vs tumor probe over epochs (layer 4) m1_probe_data.json ← raw numbers for paper tables """ from __future__ import annotations import argparse import glob import json import os from typing import Dict, List, Optional import numpy as np import torch import torch.nn as nn import torchvision.transforms as transforms from torch.utils.data import DataLoader, Subset from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler import matplotlib import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import timm import warnings warnings.filterwarnings("ignore") matplotlib.rcParams.update({"font.size": 11, "figure.dpi": 150}) # ────────────────────────────────────────────── # RESNET-18 LAYER HOOKS # Extract features after each of the 6 measurable stages: # stem → layer1 → layer2 → layer3 → layer4 → avgpool # ────────────────────────────────────────────── LAYER_NAMES = [ "stem", # After initial conv + bn + relu + maxpool "layer1", # ResNet block 1 (64 channels) "layer2", # ResNet block 2 (128 channels) "layer3", # ResNet block 3 (256 channels) "layer4", # ResNet block 4 (512 channels) "avgpool", # Global average pool — penultimate representation ] def register_hooks(model): """ Register forward hooks on all 6 extraction points. Returns (hooks, features_dict). """ features = {name: [] for name in LAYER_NAMES} hooks = [] def make_hook(name): def hook_fn(module, input, output): if output.dim() == 4: feat = output.mean(dim=[2, 3]) else: feat = output.view(output.size(0), -1) features[name].append(feat.detach().cpu()) return hook_fn hooks.append(model.maxpool.register_forward_hook(make_hook("stem"))) hooks.append(model.layer1.register_forward_hook(make_hook("layer1"))) hooks.append(model.layer2.register_forward_hook(make_hook("layer2"))) hooks.append(model.layer3.register_forward_hook(make_hook("layer3"))) hooks.append(model.layer4.register_forward_hook(make_hook("layer4"))) hooks.append(model.global_pool.register_forward_hook(make_hook("avgpool"))) return hooks, features def extract_features(model, loader, device, max_samples=1000): """ Run forward pass and collect features at all 6 layers. """ model.eval() hooks, feat_dict = register_hooks(model) all_hospital = [] all_tumor = [] count = 0 with torch.no_grad(): for batch in loader: imgs = batch[0].to(device) labels = batch[1].squeeze().long() metadata = batch[2] model(imgs) all_hospital.append(metadata[:, 0].long()) all_tumor.append(labels) count += imgs.size(0) if count >= max_samples: break for h in hooks: h.remove() features = {k: torch.cat(v).numpy() for k, v in feat_dict.items()} hospital_ids = torch.cat(all_hospital).numpy() tumor_labels = torch.cat(all_tumor).numpy() n = min(max_samples, len(hospital_ids)) features = {k: v[:n] for k, v in features.items()} hospital_ids = hospital_ids[:n] tumor_labels = tumor_labels[:n] return features, hospital_ids, tumor_labels def train_probe(X_train, y_train, X_val, y_val): """ Train logistic regression probe on frozen features. """ if len(np.unique(y_train)) < 2: return 0.5 scaler = StandardScaler() X_train = scaler.fit_transform(X_train) X_val = scaler.transform(X_val) clf = LogisticRegression( max_iter=500, C=1.0, solver="lbfgs", multi_class="auto", n_jobs=-1, ) try: clf.fit(X_train, y_train) return clf.score(X_val, y_val) except Exception: return float("nan") # ────────────────────────────────────────────── # CHECKPOINT DISCOVERY # ────────────────────────────────────────────── def find_checkpoints(run_dir: str) -> List[tuple]: """ Find all checkpoints in a run directory. Returns list of (epoch, checkpoint_path) sorted by epoch. """ ckpt_dir = os.path.join(run_dir, "checkpoints") if not os.path.isdir(ckpt_dir): return [] checkpoints = [] # Periodic checkpoints: ep050.pt, ep100.pt, etc. for f in sorted(glob.glob(os.path.join(ckpt_dir, "ep*.pt"))): epoch_str = os.path.basename(f).replace("ep", "").replace(".pt", "") try: epoch = int(epoch_str) checkpoints.append((epoch, f)) except ValueError: continue # Final checkpoint final = os.path.join(ckpt_dir, "final.pt") if os.path.isfile(final): hist_path = os.path.join(run_dir, "results", "history.json") if os.path.isfile(hist_path): try: hist = json.load(open(hist_path)) epoch = hist[-1]["epoch"] if hist else 9999 except Exception: epoch = 9999 else: epoch = 9999 checkpoints.append((epoch, final)) return sorted(checkpoints, key=lambda x: x[0]) def load_model_from_checkpoint(ckpt_path: str, n_classes: int = 2, device: str = "cuda") -> nn.Module: model = timm.create_model("resnet18", pretrained=False, num_classes=n_classes) state = torch.load(ckpt_path, map_location=device) model.load_state_dict(state, strict=True) model.eval() return model.to(device) # ────────────────────────────────────────────── # MAIN PROBE ANALYSIS # ────────────────────────────────────────────── def run_probe_analysis(run_dir: str, data_root: str, device: str = "cuda", max_samples: int = 800, latest_only: bool = False) -> Optional[Dict]: """ For each checkpoint in a run, extract features at all 6 layers and train hospital + tumor probes. """ from utils.camelyon_data import get_camelyon_subsets cfg_path = os.path.join(run_dir, "config.json") if not os.path.isfile(cfg_path): print(f" No config.json in {run_dir}, skipping") return None cfg = json.load(open(cfg_path)) condition = cfg.get("condition", "unknown") n_train = cfg.get("n_train", 300) seed = cfg.get("seed", 42) print(f"\n{'='*55}") print(f" M1 Probe Analysis: {os.path.basename(run_dir)}") print(f" condition={condition}, n_train={n_train}, seed={seed}") print(f"{'='*55}") checkpoints = find_checkpoints(run_dir) if not checkpoints: print(f" No checkpoints found — skipping") return None if latest_only: checkpoints = checkpoints[-1:] print(f" Found {len(checkpoints)} checkpoints: " f"epochs {[e for e,_ in checkpoints]}") print(f" Hospital probe: fits on training data (H0-H2), " f"evaluates on H3 and H4 separately") # ── Data ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────── transform = transforms.Compose([ transforms.Resize((96, 96)), transforms.ToTensor(), transforms.Normalize(mean=[0.485, 0.456, 0.406], std=[0.229, 0.224, 0.225]), ]) train_ds, id_val_ds, ood_test_ds, full_ds = get_camelyon_subsets( root_dir=data_root, download=False) # Wrap datasets with transform (WILDS returns PIL images) class _TransformWrapper: def __init__(self, dataset, transform): self.dataset = dataset self.transform = transform def __len__(self): return len(self.dataset) def __getitem__(self, idx): img, label, metadata = self.dataset[idx] return self.transform(img), label, metadata id_val_t = _TransformWrapper(id_val_ds, transform) ood_test_t = _TransformWrapper(ood_test_ds, transform) train_t = _TransformWrapper(train_ds, transform) torch.manual_seed(seed) probe_idx = torch.randperm(len(id_val_t))[:max_samples // 2] ood_idx = torch.randperm(len(ood_test_t))[:max_samples // 2] train_idx = torch.randperm(len(train_t))[:max_samples] probe_loader = DataLoader( Subset(id_val_t, probe_idx), batch_size=128, shuffle=False, num_workers=0) ood_loader = DataLoader( Subset(ood_test_t, ood_idx), batch_size=128, shuffle=False, num_workers=0) train_loader = DataLoader( Subset(train_t, train_idx), batch_size=128, shuffle=False, num_workers=0) # ── Results storage ────────────────────────────────────────────── results = { "run_id": os.path.basename(run_dir), "condition": condition, "n_train": n_train, "seed": seed, "epochs": [], "layers": LAYER_NAMES, "hospital_probe_id": [], # Hospital accuracy on H3 "hospital_probe_ood": [], # Hospital accuracy on H4 "tumor_probe_id": [], # Tumor accuracy on H3 "tumor_probe_ood": [], # Tumor accuracy on H4 } # ── Per-checkpoint analysis ─────────────────────────────────────── for epoch, ckpt_path in checkpoints: print(f"\n Epoch {epoch} | {os.path.basename(ckpt_path)}") try: model = load_model_from_checkpoint( ckpt_path, n_classes=2, device=device) except Exception as e: print(f" Failed to load checkpoint: {e}") continue # Extract features from all three datasets feats_train, hosp_train, tumor_train = extract_features( model, train_loader, device, max_samples=max_samples) feats_id, hosp_id, tumor_id = extract_features( model, probe_loader, device, max_samples=max_samples // 2) feats_ood, hosp_ood, tumor_ood = extract_features( model, ood_loader, device, max_samples=max_samples // 2) epoch_hosp_id = [] epoch_hosp_ood = [] epoch_tumor_id = [] epoch_tumor_ood = [] for layer_name in LAYER_NAMES: # Fit probes on training features, evaluate on H3 and H4 X_train_layer = feats_train[layer_name] X_id_layer = feats_id[layer_name] X_ood_layer = feats_ood[layer_name] # Hospital probe: can model distinguish hospitals H0-H2? # If yes on H3/H4 → stain is encoded h_acc_id = train_probe(X_train_layer, hosp_train, X_id_layer, hosp_id) h_acc_ood = train_probe(X_train_layer, hosp_train, X_ood_layer, hosp_ood) # Tumor probe: can model distinguish tumor vs normal? t_acc_id = train_probe(X_train_layer, tumor_train, X_id_layer, tumor_id) t_acc_ood = train_probe(X_train_layer, tumor_train, X_ood_layer, tumor_ood) epoch_hosp_id.append(h_acc_id) epoch_hosp_ood.append(h_acc_ood) epoch_tumor_id.append(t_acc_id) epoch_tumor_ood.append(t_acc_ood) print(f" {layer_name:8s}: " f"hosp_H3={h_acc_id:.3f} hosp_H4={h_acc_ood:.3f} " f"tumor_H3={t_acc_id:.3f} tumor_H4={t_acc_ood:.3f}") results["epochs"].append(epoch) results["hospital_probe_id"].append(epoch_hosp_id) results["hospital_probe_ood"].append(epoch_hosp_ood) results["tumor_probe_id"].append(epoch_tumor_id) results["tumor_probe_ood"].append(epoch_tumor_ood) del model # ── Save raw data ───────────────────────────────────────────────── out_dir = os.path.join(run_dir, "mechinterp") os.makedirs(out_dir, exist_ok=True) data_path = os.path.join(out_dir, "m1_probe_data.json") with open(data_path, "w") as f: json.dump(results, f, indent=2) print(f"\n Probe data → {data_path}") # ── Plots ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────── _plot_probe_heatmaps(results, out_dir) _plot_probe_curves(results, out_dir) print(f" Figures → {out_dir}/") return results def _plot_probe_heatmaps(results: Dict, out_dir: str): """ Epoch (x) × layer (y), color = probe accuracy. Hospital probe shown on H3 (held-in held-out hospital, classes overlap with training). The H4 version is degenerate by construction since the probe is fit on the training-hospital class set and H4 is not in it (hospital_probe_ood ≡ 0 across all epochs / layers). Tumor probe shown on H4 (truly OOD hospital) since tumor labels are binary and shared across hospitals — H4 captures the causal-feature transferability we care about. """ epochs = results["epochs"] layers = results["layers"] if not epochs: return hosp_matrix = np.array(results["hospital_probe_id"]) # H3 — has signal tumor_matrix = np.array(results["tumor_probe_ood"]) # H4 — true OOD fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(14, 5)) for ax, matrix, title, cmap in [ (axes[0], hosp_matrix, "Hospital probe on H3 (shortcut recoverability)\nHigh = stain still encoded = BAD", "Reds"), (axes[1], tumor_matrix, "Tumor probe on H4 (causal, OOD)\nHigh = causal feature transfers = GOOD", "Greens"), ]: im = ax.imshow( matrix.T, aspect="auto", cmap=cmap, vmin=0.0, vmax=1.0, interpolation="nearest", origin="lower", ) ax.set_xticks(range(len(epochs))) ax.set_xticklabels(epochs, rotation=45, ha="right", fontsize=8) ax.set_yticks(range(len(layers))) ax.set_yticklabels(layers, fontsize=9) ax.set_xlabel("Training epoch") ax.set_ylabel("ResNet layer") ax.set_title(title, fontsize=10, fontweight="bold") plt.colorbar(im, ax=ax, label="Probe accuracy") fig.suptitle( f"M1 — Layer-wise Linear Probing: {results['run_id']}\n" "Circuit signature: deep-layer hospital-probe drop (Reds) + sustained tumor recoverability (Greens)", fontsize=10, y=1.02 ) plt.tight_layout() out = os.path.join(out_dir, "m1_probe_heatmap.png") plt.savefig(out, bbox_inches="tight") plt.close() def _plot_probe_curves(results: Dict, out_dir: str): """ Line plot per-layer: hospital probe (H3 — recoverability) + tumor probe (H4 — causal-feature transfer to truly unseen hospital), with OOD accuracy from history.json overlaid. """ epochs = results["epochs"] run_dir = os.path.join(out_dir, "..") layers = results["layers"] avgpool_idx = layers.index("avgpool") layer2_idx = layers.index("layer2") fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(14, 5)) for ax, layer_idx, layer_label in [ (axes[0], avgpool_idx, "avgpool (penultimate)"), (axes[1], layer2_idx, "layer2 (early)"), ]: hosp = [results["hospital_probe_id"][i][layer_idx] for i in range(len(epochs))] tumor = [results["tumor_probe_ood"][i][layer_idx] for i in range(len(epochs))] ax.plot(epochs, hosp, "r-o", markersize=4, lw=2, label="Hospital probe on H3 (shortcut recoverability ↓ want)") ax.plot(epochs, tumor, "g-s", markersize=4, lw=2, label="Tumor probe on H4 (causal transfer ↑ want)") hist_path = os.path.join(run_dir, "results", "history.json") if os.path.isfile(hist_path): try: hist = json.load(open(hist_path)) hist_eps = [r["epoch"] for r in hist] ood_accs = [r.get("ood_acc", float("nan")) for r in hist] ax.plot(hist_eps, ood_accs, "b--", lw=1.5, alpha=0.7, label="OOD accuracy (H4)") except Exception: pass ax.axhline(0.5, color="gray", ls=":", lw=1, alpha=0.5, label="Chance (0.5)") ax.set_xlabel("Training epoch") ax.set_ylabel("Probe / OOD accuracy") ax.set_title(f"Layer: {layer_label}", fontweight="bold") ax.legend(fontsize=9) ax.set_ylim([0, 1.05]) ax.grid(alpha=0.3) fig.suptitle( f"M1 — Probe Curves: {results['run_id']}\n" "Hospital recoverability (H3) drops in deep layers + tumor transfers (H4) — circuit signature", fontsize=10, y=1.02 ) plt.tight_layout() out = os.path.join(out_dir, "m1_probe_curves.png") plt.savefig(out, bbox_inches="tight") plt.close() def main(): p = argparse.ArgumentParser( description="M1: Layer-wise linear probing for CausalGrok") p.add_argument("--run_dir", default=None, help="Single run directory to analyze") p.add_argument("--all_runs", action="store_true", help="Analyze all camelyon_v2 grokking runs") p.add_argument("--data_root", default="data/wilds") p.add_argument("--device", default="cuda") p.add_argument("--max_samples", type=int, default=800) p.add_argument("--latest_only", action="store_true", help="Analyze only latest checkpoint (quick check)") args = p.parse_args() if args.all_runs: run_dirs = sorted(glob.glob( "experiments/runs/*camelyon_v2*grokking*")) print(f"Found {len(run_dirs)} grokking runs") all_results = [] for rd in run_dirs: r = run_probe_analysis(rd, args.data_root, device=args.device, max_samples=args.max_samples, latest_only=args.latest_only) if r: all_results.append(r) if all_results: os.makedirs("paper_figures", exist_ok=True) with open("paper_figures/m1_all_probes.json", "w") as f: json.dump(all_results, f, indent=2) print(f"\nCombined → paper_figures/m1_all_probes.json") elif args.run_dir: run_probe_analysis(args.run_dir, args.data_root, device=args.device, max_samples=args.max_samples, latest_only=args.latest_only) else: print("Specify --run_dir or --all_runs") if __name__ == "__main__": main()