Understanding Key Features of Time Series Foundation Models from Epidemic Forecasting

Abstract: Seasonal influenza infects millions of people and causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States each year, making accurate short-term forecasting a core public-health need. Reliable forecasts of epidemic time series can inform vaccination timing, hospital staffing, and resource allocation, yet the comparative behavior of modern forecasting architectures on infectious-disease surveillance data remains insufficiently characterized. We address this gap through a systematic evaluation of regional influenza forecasting using influenza-like illness surveillance and influenza-associated hospitalization time series under both temporal and spatial generalization settings for 1-4-week-ahead prediction. We compare classical neural network architectures, numerical transformer-based models, pretrained time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasting approaches. Across tasks, we demonstrate that a mixture-of-experts model that fuses multiple pretrained forecasters achieves the strongest overall performance, indicating that heterogeneous pretrained representations provide complementary predictive information. Our results further show that numerical transformer-based models produce reliable forecasts, while pretraining provides the largest gains at longer horizons, particularly when the pretraining domain is mechanistically aligned with influenza dynamics. In contrast, LLM-based time series methods underperform relative to numerical forecasters in this setting. Finally, we examine hospitalization information as both an auxiliary covariate and a pretraining source. Hospitalization signals provide complementary improvements in selected settings and clarify when additional surveillance streams enhance the robustness of multi-horizon forecasting. These findings provide actionable guidance on model selection, pretraining strategy, and auxiliary-signal use for influenza preparedness.

Alireza Jafari
Judy Fox
Geoffrey C. Fox
Madhav Marathe
Aniruddha Adiga


ForecastBench-Sim: A Simulated-World Forecasting Benchmark

Abstract: Forecasting benchmarks for general-purpose AI systems usually inherit the constraints of the real world: outcomes resolve slowly, tail events are rare, and counterfactual questions are difficult to score. We introduce ForecastBench-Sim, a simulated-world forecasting benchmark built on game rollouts from Freeciv, a turn-based strategy game modelled on the Civilization series. Forecasters receive a fixed world report (a structured snapshot of the current game state) and answer questions about hidden future states; the benchmark then continues the simulation and scores forecasts. Because the world is simulated, the same setup can generate continuous or binary forecasting questions at arbitrary time horizons, paired intervention worlds for conditional or causal questions, and resolved examples of rare or disruptive outcomes. We describe the benchmark pipeline, question families, scoring protocol, and release artifacts, and report validation slices from model evaluations and an anonymized human pilot. ForecastBench-Sim is intended to complement real-world forecasting benchmarks by providing controlled, immediately resolvable tasks for studying probabilistic reasoning under dynamic world states.


Do Time Series Foundation Model Benchmarks Hide Regime-Dependent Failures? Evidence from Traffic Speed Forecasting

Abstract: Standard benchmarks evaluate time series foundation models (TSFMs) using aggregate metrics, but these can mask severe failures in critical operating regimes. We introduce regime-stratified evaluation and apply it to three TSFMs on two standard traffic speed benchmarks. Traffic exhibits abrupt regime switching between free-flow and congested states, producing bimodal speed distributions during transitions. When we stratify by traffic regime, both accuracy and prediction-interval coverage degrade sharply during transitions: transition-regime MAE reaches 11 mph (versus 3 mph overall), and empirical coverage of 90% prediction intervals drops as low as 55%. These failures are invisible in aggregate metrics because free-flow observations dominate the sample. A simple historical conditional baseline (sampling from per-sensor training distributions) achieves better transition coverage than any TSFM, but has far worse overall accuracy. We propose bimodal mixture augmentation (BMA), a post-hoc method that combines TSFM forecasts with historical distributional knowledge, approaching the historical baseline's transition coverage while preserving the TSFM's accuracy. Our results suggest that TSFM benchmarks should incorporate regime-aware evaluation to surface failures that aggregate metrics hide.

Yingshuo Wang
Xian Sun
Lingdong Kong
Wei Gao
Yanhang Li
Zhichao Fan
Zexin Zhuang


TimeVista: Exploring and Exploiting Vision-Language Models as Judges for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: High-quality time series forecasting is pivotal for real-world decision-making. However, traditional point-wise metrics often fail to reveal complex temporal patterns and align poorly with human intuitive preferences. While the ''LLM-as-a-Judge'' paradigm has revolutionized text evaluation by providing flexible, human-aligned judgment, its application to time series remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we leverage Vision-Language Models (VLMs) as judges for time series forecasting, harnessing their ability to comprehend time series plots grounded in textual information. Specifically, we propose a novel framework integrating micro- and macro-level judgments informed by contextual information to evaluate time series forecasting. To this end, we introduce TimeVista, a comprehensive VLM-as-a-Judge benchmark comprising 5563 time series samples paired with detailed evaluation rubrics. Extensive meta-evaluations demonstrate that VLMs are highly reliable judges, achieving significantly higher consistency with human preferences than conventional metrics. Building upon our benchmark, we comprehensively assess recent Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) under the VLM-as-a-Judge paradigm. Our results demonstrate that VLMs serve as robust and interpretable judges, providing a comprehensive, human-aligned standard for evaluating time series models.

Zhi Chen
Yuxuan Wang
Jialong Wu
Yong Liu
Haoran Zhang
Xingjian Su
Jianmin Wang
Mingsheng Long


Quantum-classical hybrid models based on error correction for time series forecasting

Abstract: Time series forecasting largely benefits from combining the strengths of different models, especially using a scheme where a model corrects another model by capturing supplementary patterns from forecasting errors. Concurrently, quantum models are providing a means to augment the classical capacity, including in time series forecasting, by acting alongside classical models in hybrid architectures. In this work, we propose the first forecasting system based on error correction that jointly uses quantum and classical models. Here, quantum models first extract patterns by exploring quantum phenomena, and classical models capture the remaining patterns from the quantum errors. Compared to classical single models and classical-classical hybrid models based on error correction, the complementary capacity that emerges from this quantum-classical system provided the best results in most of the addressed problems. Therefore, this work paves the way to introduce quantum models in established hybridization schemes for time series forecasting.

Jonathan H. A. de Carvalho
Filipe C. de L. Duarte
Fernando M. de Paula Neto
Paulo S. G. de Mattos Neto


Semantics-Enhanced Retrieval-Augmented Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Time series forecasting models often benefit from historical patterns. Inspired by Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), recent research explored retrieving relevant historical time series segments to enhance forecasting. However, relying solely on time series similarity is often insufficient for retrieval under non-stationarity. To address this, we propose a multimodal approach: a \textbf{S}emantics-\textbf{E}nhanced \textbf{R}etrieval-\textbf{A}ugmented Time Series \textbf{F}orecasting framework, SERAF. Unlike mainstream approaches that depend only on time series similarity, SERAF conducts dual retrieval over the time series and their self-generated textual descriptions. It retrieves two complementary sets of historical patterns and corresponding futures, which are selectively and jointly used to guide future predictions. Experiments across seven real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of SERAF in bridging numerical and semantic views of time series compared with state-of-the-art baselines.

Shiqiao Zhou
Zipeng Wu
Holger Schöner
Edouard Fouché
IAG Wilson
Shuo Wang


APEX: A Network-Native Time-Series Foundation Model for Forecasting and Anomaly Detection for Wireless Edge Operations

Abstract: Generic time-series foundation models transfer poorly to wireless network telemetry whose signals are bursty, zero-inflated, and coupled across protocol layers. We present APEX, a network-native, decoder-only transformer for forecasting enterprise AP telemetry, and evaluate it on DHCP degradation as a representative network task. APEX is pre-trained on 10-channel multivariate telemetry from ~4,500 production wireless networks (~100K AP time series, 34 metrics per AP), and is available as APEX-Large (269M, cloud) and APEX-Edge (10.5M, edge). On a 192-step (4-day) DHCP degradation benchmark, APEX-Large reduces MAE by 18% over the strongest foundation-model baseline (Toto) and 38% over SARIMA, with anomaly-detection F1 = 0.93, while APEX-Edge enables sub-second, privacy-preserving inference on AP-class edge hardware. These results suggest network-native pre-training is a practical foundation for proactive wireless operations.

Swadhin Pradhan
Niloo Bahadori
Peiman Amini


CITRAS-FM: Tiny Time Series Foundation Model for Covariate-Informed Zero-Shot Forecasting

Abstract: Pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) have enabled zero-shot forecasting on unseen target series. However, existing TSFMs often incur high computational cost and provide limited support for diverse variable types, often failing to account for covariates that exogenously influence target variability. To address these challenges, we propose CITRAS-FM, a tiny 7M-parameter TSFM that supports univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed zero-shot forecasting with real-time CPU inference. Built on a patch-based, decoder-only Transformer, CITRAS-FM introduces Shifted Attention into the cross-variate module to effectively exploit known covariates accessible throughout the forecast horizon. Moreover, to enable covariate-aware pretraining despite the scarcity of covariate-rich corpora, we propose CovSynth, which synthesizes realistic covariates from decomposed components of target series. Experiments on fev-bench, spanning 100 tasks across various settings, demonstrate that CITRAS-FM achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot accuracy among sub-10M TSFMs while delivering sub-0.1-second CPU inference, offering a strong balance between forecasting accuracy and real-time deployability.

Yosuke Yamaguchi
Issei Suemitsu
Yuki Kajihara
Wenpeng Wei


Does Normalization Choice Matter for Causal Large Time-Series Models?

Abstract: Large models for time-series forecasting have been emerged as a promising paradigm for training models on heterogeneous collections of signals. These models typically rely on causal autoregressive architectures, where each observation is sequentially predicted from past. In practice, real-world time-series exhibit non-stationarities, which significantly influence predictive performance. To mitigate this, normalization is commonly employed. However, in efficient causal settings it might induce information leakage from future observations during training. Recent alternatives, including causal normalization and statistics computed from initial observations, have been proposed to address this issue, but their practical implications remain insufficiently understood. In this work, we evaluate normalization strategies for transformer-based large time-series models trained with patching and efficient causal strategy. We showcase that normalization choice significantly influences both training convergence and forecasting performance.

Samy-Melwan Vilhes
Gilles Gasso
Mokhtar Z Alaya

ICLR 2026 Workshop: Time Series in the Age of Large Models, Apr 2026, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil


Mix, Don't Pick: Why Synthetic Corpus Composition Matters for Time Series Foundation Model Pretraining

Abstract: Choosing the wrong synthetic generator for time-series foundation model pretraining is costly: under identical training budgets, the best and worst generators produce up to a $2\times$ gap in forecasting error, yet the field has no principled way to make this choice. The problem is compounded by the fact that generator rankings are not stable across architectures: across 11 generator families evaluated on Chronos-T5-Mini and Moirai-Small trained from scratch, we find that which generators are useful depends on the model architecture. Rather than solving the generator selection problem, we sidestep it: a simple equal-weight mixture of all generators matches or beats the best individual generator for both architectures, and composing this mixture with real data yields the strongest pretraining corpora overall. Synthetic pretraining is therefore a corpus composition problem, not a generator selection problem, and composition choices should be validated per model family rather than assumed to transfer.

Aaryan Nagpal
Debdeep Sanyal
Murari Mandal
Dhruv Kumar
Saurabh Deshpande


Time series Foundation Models based on Physics-Informed Synthetic Histories for Cold-Start Photovoltaic Forecasting

Abstract: At commissioning time, Photovoltaic (PV) operators must forecast production before target-site observations are available, limiting the direct use of standard supervised forecasters. This cold-start setting is addressed with a zero-shot pipeline that generates a synthetic production history from plant metadata and meteorological covariates, enabling time-series foundation models (TSFMs) to forecast through inference-time conditioning. Five TSFMs are benchmarked against classical baselines under strict Cold-Start Baseline, Real Feedback, and Self-Forecast Feedback strategies. The evaluation spans $440$ PV sites across four datasets and diverse climate regimes. Covariate-aware foundation models outperform baselines by approximately $1.7-2\times$: TabPFN-TS achieves the lowest error under Real Feedback (MAE $0.514$, RMSE $0.721$ $kWh$ ${kWp}^{-1}$ ${d}^{-1}$), while Chronos-2 is most robust under Self-Forecast Feedback. Performance is largely insensitive to the synthetic-history source, indicating that accuracy is driven more by the availability of plausible temporal context than by the specific generator.

Lorenzo Longarini
Alessandro Rongoni
Simone Silenzi
Emanuele Frontoni
Riccardo Rosati

Computer Science
Engineering
Mathematics


GlucoFM-Bench: Benchmarking Time-Series Foundation Models for Blood Glucose Forecasting

Abstract: Blood glucose forecasting models are foundational for modern diabetes management systems, as reliable short-term predictions can enable proactive interventions, support automated insulin delivery, and reduce the risk of hypo- and hyperglycemic events. From a modeling perspective, glucose forecasting poses unique challenges due to heterogeneous physiological dynamics across diabetes populations. Traditional machine learning and deep learning models have been extensively evaluated for glucose prediction, yet recent time-series foundation models (TSFMs) remain much less studied in this setting. To bridge this gap, we present GlucoFM-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark evaluating state-of-the-art TSFMs alongside supervised deep learning models for blood glucose forecasting. We assess eight representative architectures, including pre-trained TSFMs, time-series large language models, and task-specific deep learning models, across 15 publicly available diabetes-relevant datasets comprising 1,117 individuals with type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, prediabetes, and no diabetes. Models are evaluated under zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot protocols, with systematic variation in context length and prediction horizon. Across datasets, pre-trained TSFMs, especially Chronos-2 and TimesFM, show strong zero-shot and few-shot transfer, with the best zero-shot model performing within 5% of the best full-shot supervised model. Yet, when task-specific data are abundant, a lightweight LSTM remains strongest, outperforming TSFMs by 4--21% under full-shot training. Stratified analyses reveal persistent challenges in T1D cohorts and hypo-/hyperglycemic ranges, highlighting the need for evaluation beyond aggregate error metrics. Together, GlucoFM-Bench provides a standardized and reproducible foundation for evaluating, comparing, and improving foundation models for blood glucose forecasting.

Baiying Lu
Zhaohui Liang
Ryan Pontius
Shengpu Tang
Temiloluwa Prioleau


TS-ICL: A Flexible Time-Indexed Foundation Model for Time Series via In-Context Learning

Abstract: Foundation models mark a profound paradigm shift in time series modeling, with task-specific models being superseded by general-purpose zero-shot models. Yet, current approaches primarily focus on forecasting, while real-world time series are often irregularly and partially observed, requiring models that can jointly forecast, impute missing values, and handle degraded sampling conditions. To address these challenges, we introduce TS-ICL, a novel probabilistic In-Context Learning encoder--regressor Transformer that unifies forecasting and imputation. TS-ICL formulates time series tasks as timestamp-aligned regression and naturally incorporates covariates by training on synthetic dependency structures generated from a novel causal data prior. Empirically, TS-ICL achieves a new state-of-the-art in imputation, while remaining competitive with leading forecasting foundation models across both univariate and covariate-aware benchmarks. It shows particularly strong performance in forecasting with partially observed look-back windows.

Etienne Le Naour
Tahar Nabil
Adrien Petralia


TimeBlocks: Foundational and Continual Time-Series Blockbase -- Extended Version

Abstract: The ongoing digitization has led to a proliferation of time-series data streams that monitor a variety of processes, from which valuable insights may be obtained. Further, the emergence of successful foundational language models begs the question of whether it is possible to achieve time-series models with the foundational properties of handling multiple tasks, while being sufficiently lightweight to allow real-time data stream processing. Existing foundational time-series models are often large and only effective in offline settings without stringent time and computational constraints, and where repeated model calibration is not needed. However, when applied to data streams, these models are ineffective due to their size and lack of support for continual calibration, which compromise their ability to deliver accurate real-time responses, their durability, and their deployability in hardware-limited settings. We propose TimeBlocks to enable versatile time-series processing by facilitating the efficient building of lightweight models suitable for multiple tasks under variable conditions. In particular, the method maintains a pool of interchangeable and modular model blocks that can be used to construct new time-series models. When presented with specific time-series data, a routing strategy iteratively selects the most suitable blocks to construct a lightweight and accurate model for the data. We equip TimeBlocks with a method called StreamCore to build a representative small subset of the data stream, which preserves a guaranteed approximation of the stream over time, enabling continual model calibration. An experimental study on multiple data sets and covering multiple tasks shows that TimeBlocks enables to build models capable of outperforming existing baselines.

David Campos
Bin Yang
Tung Kieu
Lei Chen
Chenjuan Guo
Christian S. Jensen


Time Series as Language: A Universal Tokenizer for General-Purpose Time Series Foundation Models

Abstract: While Next-Token Prediction (NTP) has unified LLM pretraining, its adaptation to unbounded, continuous time series (TS) remains open. To bridge the gap, we introduce UniTok, a universal tokenizer that transforms TS into discrete tokens, and UniTok-FM, a foundation model pretrained via NTP on these tokens. UniTok-FM is a general-purpose foundation model that supports zero-shot and prompt-boosted forecasting, as well as few-shot generation and classification via training-free in-context inference--a capability not achieved by prior works. Technically, UniTok is a vector-quantized autoencoder incorporating prefix normalization for scale stabilization, a progressive-resolution causal architecture for encoding and decoding, and a structure-preserving reconstruction loss for training. UniTok-FM adopts an off-the-shelf LLM architecture without TS-specific modifications. Instead of pretraining on isolated TS, it performs NTP on context windows formed by multiple series with similar patterns, aiming to capture their shared dynamics. Experiments on forecasting, generation, and classification show that a single unified UniTok-FM consistently outperforms statistical and supervised baselines, achieves competitive performance with task-specific foundation models, and uniquely enables training-free in-context inference across tasks.

Yunhao Zhang
Ruiying Qi
Jiale Zheng
Jianfeng Zhang
Lujia Pan
Junchi Yan


KairosAgent: Agentic Time Series Forecasting with Fused Semantic Reasoning

Abstract: Cross-domain multimodal time series forecasting is a challenging task, requiring models to integrate precise numerical comprehension, cross-domain semantic understanding, and effective multimodal fusion. Existing approaches either build Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) from scratch or leverage pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs). However, TSFMs often overlook semantic understanding and lack the ability to perform future-oriented semantic reasoning, and LLMs struggle with numerical comprehension and accurate quantitative forecasting. To overcome these limitations, we propose KairosAgent, a novel agentic framework for multimodal time series forecasting, including an LLM-based reasoner and a TSFM-based forecaster. KairosAgent unifies textual reasoning and numerical forecasting by dynamically invoking analytical tools to enhance the numerical understanding and semantic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. The reasoning results are subsequently fused into the TSFM pipeline, enabling more accurate and reliable future predictions. To further improve the reasoning, we curate a large-scale corpus of high-quality trajectories, alongside a reinforcement learning from forecasting paradigm with multi-turn refinement and turn-level credit assignment. Experiments demonstrate that KairosAgent achieves superior zero-shot forecasting performance while maximizing the utility of pretrained LLMs and TSFMs, presenting a promising direction for efficient and interpretable time series agents. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/KairosAgent .

Kun Feng
Ziwei Shan
Yuchen Fang
Yiyang Tan
Sihan Lu
Shuqi Gu
Lintao Ma
Xingyu Lu
Kan Ren


AME-TS: Anchored Mixture-of-Experts for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Time series forecasting models are increasingly scaled through large Transformer backbones, yet most existing approaches process all series through a shared dense computation path despite substantial heterogeneity in temporal structure. Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) offers a natural alternative by enabling conditional computation, but standard MoE routing leaves expert specialization weakly identified and often unstable during downstream adaptation. We propose AME-TS, a structure-guided sparse time series foundation model that aligns expert routing with interpretable temporal structure. AME-TS first uses a lightweight regime predictor to estimate series-level descriptors, including forecastability, seasonality, trend, and sparsity, and maps them to a soft structural prior over experts. This series-level prior guides token-level routing during training, encouraging structure-aligned specialization. On the GIFT-Eval benchmark, AME-TS delivers a strong accuracy-efficiency tradeoff across model scales: it substantially outperforms existing time series foundation models at small model scales and remains competitive with the strongest models at larger scales, while activating substantially fewer parameters through sparse routing. We further show that AME-TS learns more interpretable routing geometry and substantially more stable expert specialization than standard MoE during fine-tuning on the M5 dataset. These results suggest that structure-aware routing is an effective and reliable way to realize the benefits of sparse expert models for time series forecasting.

Rui Wang
Renhao Xue
Ray Razi
Huan Song
Hannah R. Marlowe


Assessing the Operational Viability of Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Time series forecasting drives operational decisions in areas like finance, transportation, and energy. While supervised learning approaches achieve strong performance, they require domain-specific training, feature engineering, and ongoing maintenance. Large-scale foundation models have recently emerged as a zero-shot alternative, avoiding task-specific training much like LLMs. In this work, we evaluate foundation models against standard supervised approaches. Rather than focusing solely on aggregate accuracy, we analyze performance across four operational regimes: periodic human-centric systems, physically constrained processes, stochastic financial markets, and heterogeneous demand forecasting. Our results characterize optimal deployment areas. Foundation models perform well in domains with transferable periodic structures and are efficient for cold-start or long-tail scenarios. Conversely, supervised specialists maintain higher precision in systems governed by strict physical constraints. In financial domains, newer foundation models are rapidly closing the performance gap with supervised specialists. We further quantify trade-offs in inference latency, data drift adaptability, and deployment constraints. Finally, we propose a Complexity Router that assigns each series to the optimal model class using empirical features. We demonstrate that this selective routing achieves higher accuracy and significantly lower inference costs compared to deploying a universal foundation model, providing a practical framework for balancing generalization and efficiency.

Kavin Soni
Debanshu Das
Vamshi Guduguntla


Chronicle: A Multimodal Foundation Model for Joint Language and Time Series Understanding

Abstract: Real-world time series come with text: metadata, descriptions, news, reports. Yet time series foundation models process numerical sequences in isolation, and the multimodal text-and-time-series models that attempt to bridge the two all adapt a pretrained language model post hoc, inheriting representations shaped without ever seeing temporal data. These models are also evaluated almost exclusively against other multimodal baselines, not against the strongest unimodal foundation models in either domain, leaving open whether joint training is needed at all. We present Chronicle, a compact 324M-parameter decoder-only transformer trained from scratch on natural language and time series within a single unified architecture. Both modalities share the same transformer blocks, attention mechanism, and residual stream; the bulk of pretraining uses unimodal batches so cross-modal capability emerges purely from shared parameters, with a short alignment stage that interleaves the two. To our knowledge, Chronicle is the first model jointly pretrained on text and time series from scratch, and the first multimodal model evaluated against dedicated foundation models in both domains. It matches Gemma-3-270M-PT on 19 NLU tasks, sets a new bar for frozen-embedding time series classification on 24 UCR/UEA datasets, and produces multimodal forecasts on Time-MMD that beat every supervised fusion baseline, all from a single backbone.

Paul Quinlan
Jeremy Levasseur
Qingguo Li
Xiaodan Zhu


Empirical evaluation of Time Series Foundation Models for Day-ahead and Imbalance Electricity Price Forecasting in Belgium

Abstract: Recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) promise zero-shot forecasting capabilities with minimal task-specific training. While these models have shown strong performance across generic benchmarks, their applicability in volatile, complex electricity markets remains underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study provides a systematic empirical evaluation of several TSFMs, specifically Chronos-2 and Chronos-Bolt (developed by Amazon), and TimesFM 2.5 (provided by Google), for forecasting Belgian day-ahead and imbalance electricity prices. For both considered markets, Chronos-2 in ARX mode produces the most accurate forecasts. Compared with the best ensemble prediction from other machine learning methods, Chronos-2's Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is 5% lower for the day-ahead market. In contrast, the model yields 10% higher MAE predicting imbalance prices across all forecast horizons, except for the two-hour-ahead horizon. Moreover, we find that TSFMs exhibit genuine zero-shot forecasting skills but still struggle under extreme market conditions.

Chi Bui
Maria Margarida Mascarenhas
Arnaud Verstraeten
Hussain Kazmi


EHR-RAGp: Retrieval-Augmented Prototype-Guided Foundation Model for Electronic Health Records

Abstract: Electronic Health Records (EHR) contain rich longitudinal patient information and are widely used in predictive modeling applications. However, effectively leveraging historical data remains challenging due to long trajectories, heterogeneous events, temporal irregularity, and the varying relevance of past clinical context. Existing approaches often rely on fixed windows or uniform aggregation, which can obscure clinically important signals. In this work, we introduce EHR-RAGp, a retrieval-augmented foundation model that dynamically integrates the most relevant patient history across diverse clinical event types. We propose a prototype-guided retrieval module that acts as an alignment mechanism and estimates the relevance of retrieved historical chunks with respect to a given prediction task, guiding the model towards the most informative context. Across multiple clinical prediction tasks, EHR-RAGp consistently outperforms state-of-the-art EHR foundation models and transformer-based baselines. Furthermore, integrating EHR-RAGp with existing clinical foundation models yields substantial performance gains. Overall, EHR-RAGp provides a scalable and efficient framework for leveraging long-range clinical context to improve downstream performance.

Saeed Shurrab
Mariam Al-Omari
Dana El Samad
Farah E. Shamout


Benchmarking Transformer and xLSTM for Time-Series Forecasting of Heat Consumption

Abstract: Obtaining an accurate short-term forecasting for heat demand is an essential part of operating district heating networks cost-efficient and reliable. Heat consumption time series at the building level are highly dependent on exogenous variables such as outdoor temperature and individual usage patterns, making forecasting in this context a challenging task. Thus, this paper benchmarks novel Transformer-based and xLSTM architectures for short-term heat-demand forecasting. Using hourly data from 25 German buildings (2017-2025), we compare three-hour and 24-hour forecasting horizons relevant for intraday control and day-ahead scheduling. We establish a multi-building benchmark that tests whether models trained on pooled, heterogeneous building data are able to generalize across diverse building stock. The results show that the xLSTM achieves the lowest RMSE (19.88 kWh for three-hour, 21.47 kWh for 24-hour forecasts), while the Temporal Fusion Transformer attains the best MAE (9.16 kWh for three-hour forecasts). As xLSTMs and Transformers require long training times and have a huge number of trainable parameters, their sustainability remains questionable. Therefore, this paper further investigates the trade-off between predictive accuracy and computational resource demand of the evaluated forecasting models. The findings indicate that also low-parameter models like a traditional fully-connected network achieve good predictive results, highlighting that marginal accuracy gains of the novel prediction models come at substantial resource expense for this use case.

Marja Wahl
Daniel R. Bayer
Sven Rausch
Marco Pruckner

IEEE Conference on Technologies for Sustainability


Multivariate Financial Forecasting using the Chronos Time Series Foundation Models

Abstract: Using Chronos-2, an open-source time-series foundation model, we evaluate pretrained time-series models for economic and financial forecasting with an emphasis on whether multivariate (MV) inputs improve accuracy relative to univariate (UV) baselines. The study covers two panels -- the Magnificent-7 equities and U.S. Treasury interest rates -- as well as a combined panel, using rolling monthly evaluations from 2000--2025. We vary input window lengths and forecast horizons and report RMSE and MAPE. Across datasets, MV forecasts consistently outperform UV forecasts, with especially strong gains for interest rates and meaningful improvements for equities. Series-level comparisons show MV improvements in every case, and error dispersion is generally lower under MV inputs. We also provide parameter-heatmap and time-series visualizations. However, mixing time series across equity and interest rate markets reduces forecast accuracy, indicating that adding noisy context degrades model performance. Overall, the results indicate that foundation models can leverage cross-series information to improve forecast accuracy in finance, and that the benefits are strongest when related series are modeled jointly under disciplined rolling protocols. Other than using an open-source foundation model, this paper also showcases how AI may be used for financial research.


Superposition Is Not Necessary: A Mechanistic Interpretability Analysis of Transformer Representations for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Transformer architectures have been widely adopted for time series forecasting, yet whether the representational mechanisms that make them powerful in NLP actually engage on time series data remains unexplored. The persistent competitiveness of simple linear models such as DLinear has fueled ongoing debate, but no mechanistic explanation for this phenomenon has been offered. We address this gap by applying sparse autoencoders (SAEs), a tool from mechanistic interpretability, to probe the internal representations of PatchTST. We first establish that a single-layer, narrow-dimensional transformer matches the forecasting performance of deeper configurations across commonly used benchmarks. We then train SAEs on the post-GELU intermediate FFN activations with dictionary sizes ranging from 0.5x to 4.0x the native dimensionality. Expanding the dictionary yields negligible downstream performance change (average 0.214%), with large portions of overcomplete dictionaries remaining inactive. Targeted causal interventions on dominant latent features produce minimal forecast perturbation. Across all evaluated settings, we observe no empirical evidence that the analyzed FFN representations rely on strong superposition. Instead, the representations remain sparse, stable under aggressive dictionary expansion, and largely insensitive to latent interventions. These results demonstrate that superposition is not necessary for competitive performance on standard forecasting benchmarks, suggesting they may not demand the rich compositional representations that drive transformer success in language modeling, and helping explain the persistent competitiveness of simple linear models


Explainable Load Forecasting with Covariate-Informed Time Series Foundation Models

Abstract: Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as general-purpose forecasting models and show considerable potential for applications in energy systems. However, applications in critical infrastructure like power grids require transparency to ensure trust and reliability and cannot rely on pure black-box models. To enhance the transparency of TSFMs, we propose an efficient algorithm for computing Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) tailored to these models. The proposed approach leverages the flexibility of TSFMs with respect to input context length and provided covariates. This property enables efficient temporal and covariate masking (selectively withholding inputs), allowing for a scalable explanation of model predictions using SHAP. We evaluate two TSFMs - Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS - on a day-ahead load forecasting task for a transmission system operator (TSO). In a zero-shot setting, both models achieve predictive performance competitive with a Transformer model trained specifically on multiple years of TSO data. The explanations obtained through our proposed approach align with established domain knowledge, particularly as the TSFMs appropriately use weather and calendar information for load prediction. Overall, we demonstrate that TSFMs can serve as transparent and reliable tools for operational energy forecasting.

Matthias Hertel
Alexandra Nikoltchovska
Sebastian Pütz
Ralf Mikut
Benjamin Schäfer
Veit Hagenmeyer


FETS Benchmark: Foundation Models Outperform Dataset-specific Machine Learning in Energy Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operation. Yet, it remains largely a dataset-specific task, requiring comprehensive training data, limiting scalability, and resulting in high model development and maintenance effort. Recently, foundation models that aim to learn generalizable patterns via extensive pretraining have shown superior performance in multiple prediction tasks. Despite their success and strong potential to address challenges in energy forecasting, their application in this domain remains largely unexplored. We address this gap by presenting the Foundation Models in Energy Time Series Forecasting (FETS) benchmark. We (1) provide a structured overview of energy forecasting use cases along three main dimensions: stakeholders, attributes, and data categories; (2) collect and analyze 54 datasets across 9 data categories, guided by typical stakeholder interests; (3) benchmark foundation models against classical machine learning approaches across different forecasting settings. Foundation models consistently outperform dataset-specific optimized machine learning approaches across all settings and data categories, despite the latter having seen the full historic target data during training. In particular, covariate-informed foundation models achieve the strongest performance. Further analysis reveals a strong correlation between predictive performance and spectral entropy, performance saturation beyond a certain context length, and improved performance at higher aggregation levels such as national load, district heating, and power grid data. Overall, our findings highlight the strong potential of foundation models as scalable and generalizable forecasting solutions for the energy domain, particularly in data-constrained and privacy-sensitive settings.

Marco Obermeier
Marco Pruckner
Florian Haselbeck
Andreas Zeiselmair


Empirical Assessment of Time-Series Foundation Models For Power System Forecasting Applications

Abstract: Accurate forecasting of electric load and renewable generation is essential for reliable and cost effective power system operations. Recent advances in transformer based and foundation machine learning models, driven by large scale pretraining, increased available data and computation, in addition to architectural innovations, have shown promise in time series forecasting across multiple domains. However, their application to power system forecasting tasks remains largely underexplored. This work presents a comprehensive, empirical benchmark of state of the art time series foundation models, transformer architectures, and deep learning baselines for solar, wind, and load forecasting using the high resolution ARPAE PERFORM dataset for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. Eight core capabilities are assessed, including zero shot performance, fine tuning efficiency, multivariate input and output handling, horizon sensitivity, generalization to unseen sites, probabilistic forecasting, and context window effects. Models evaluated include TimesFM, Chronos Bolt, MoiraiL, MOMENT, Tiny Time Mixer, Temporal Fusion Transformer, PatchTST, TimeXer, LSTM, and CNN. The manuscript aims to provide clear guidance on when foundation models can provide enhanced renewable and load forecasting capabilities and when other approaches remain the more practical choice for power system operations.


WaveMoE: A Wavelet-Enhanced Mixture-of-Experts Foundation Model for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently achieved remarkable success in universal forecasting by leveraging large-scale pretraining on diverse time series data. Complementing this progress, incorporating frequency-domain information yields promising performance in enhancing the modeling of complex temporal patterns, such as periodicity and localized high-frequency dynamics, which are prevalent in real-world time series. To advance this direction, we propose a new perspective that integrates explicit frequency-domain representations into scalable foundation models, and introduce WaveMoE, a wavelet-enhanced mixture-of-experts foundation model for time series forecasting. WaveMoE adopts a dual-path architecture that jointly processes time series tokens and wavelet tokens aligned along a unified temporal axis, and coordinates them through a shared expert routing mechanism that enables consistent expert specialization while efficiently scaling model capacity. Preliminary experimental results on 16 diverse benchmark datasets indicate that WaveMoE has the potential to further improve forecasting performance by incorporating wavelet-domain corpora.

Shunyu Wu
Jiawei Huang
Weibin Feng
Boxin Li
Xiao Zhang
Erli Meng
Dan Li
Jian Lou
See-Kiong Ng


Zero-shot Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Using Tabular Prior Fitted Networks

Abstract: Tabular foundation models, particularly Prior-data Fitted Networks like TabPFN have emerged as the leading contender in a myriad of tasks ranging from data imputation to label prediction on the tabular data format surpassing the historical successes of tree-based models. This has led to investigations on their applicability to forecasting time series data which can be formulated as a tabular problem. While recent work to this end has displayed positive results, most works have limited their treatment of multivariate time series problems to several independent univariate time series forecasting subproblems, thus ignoring any inter-channel interactions. Overcoming this limitation, we introduce a generally applicable framework for multivariate time series forecasting using tabular foundation models. We achieve this by recasting the multivariate time series forecasting problem as a series of scalar regression problems which can then be solved zero-shot by any tabular foundation model with regression capabilities. We present results of our method using the TabPFN-TS backbone and compare performance with the current state of the art tabular methods.

Mayuka Jayawardhana
Nihal Sharma
Kazem Meidani
Bayan Bruss
Tom Goldstein
Doron Bergman


Dynamic Linear Coregionalization for Realistic Synthetic Multivariate Time Series

Abstract: Synthetic data is essential for training foundation models for time series (FMTS), but most generators assume static correlations, and are typically missing realistic inter-channel dependencies. We introduce DynLMC, a Dynamic Linear Model of Coregionalization, that incorporates time-varying, regime-switching correlations and cross-channel lag structures. Our approach produces synthetic multivariate time series with correlation dynamics that closely resemble real data. Fine-tuning three foundational models on DynLMC-generated data yields consistent zero-shot forecasting improvements across nine benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that modeling dynamic inter-channel correlations enhances FMTS transferability, highlighting the importance of data-centric pretraining.

Annita Vapsi
Penghang Liu
Saheed Obitayo
Aakriti
Manoj Cherukumalli
Prathamesh Patil
Amit Varshney
Nicolas Marchesotti
Elizabeth Fons
Vamsi K. Potluru
Manuela Veloso


Forecast collapse of transformer-based models under squared loss in financial time series

Abstract: We study trajectory forecasting under squared loss for time series with weak conditional structure, using highly expressive prediction models. Building on the classical characterization of squared-loss risk minimization, we emphasize regimes in which the conditional expectation of future trajectories is effectively degenerate, leading to trivial Bayes-optimal predictors (flat for prices and zero for returns in standard financial settings). In this regime, increased model expressivity does not improve predictive accuracy but instead introduces spurious trajectory fluctuations around the optimal predictor. These fluctuations arise from the reuse of noise and result in increased prediction variance without any reduction in bias. This provides a process-level explanation for the degradation of Transformerbased forecasts on financial time series. We complement these theoretical results with numerical experiments on high-frequency EUR/USD exchange rate data, analyzing the distribution of trajectory-level forecasting errors. The results show that Transformer-based models yield larger errors than a simple linear benchmark on a large majority of forecasting windows, consistent with the variance-driven mechanism identified by the theory.


Multimodal Forecasting for Commodity Prices Using Spectrogram-Based and Time Series Representations

Abstract: Forecasting multivariate time series remains challenging due to complex cross-variable dependencies and the presence of heterogeneous external influences. This paper presents Spectrogram-Enhanced Multimodal Fusion (SEMF), which combines spectral and temporal representations for more accurate and robust forecasting. The target time series is transformed into Morlet wavelet spectrograms, from which a Vision Transformer encoder extracts localized, frequency-aware features. In parallel, exogenous variables, such as financial indicators and macroeconomic signals, are encoded via a Transformer to capture temporal dependencies and multivariate dynamics. A bidirectional cross-attention module integrates these modalities into a unified representation that preserves distinct signal characteristics while modeling cross-modal correlations. Applied to multiple commodity price forecasting tasks, SEMF achieves consistent improvements over seven competitive baselines across multiple forecasting horizons and evaluation metrics. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of multimodal fusion and spectrogram-based encoding in capturing multi-scale patterns within complex financial time series.


QuitoBench: A High-Quality Open Time Series Forecasting Benchmark

Abstract: Time series forecasting is critical across finance, healthcare, and cloud computing, yet progress is constrained by a fundamental bottleneck: the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce \textsc{QuitoBench}, a regime-balanced benchmark for time series forecasting with coverage across eight trend$\times$seasonality$\times$forecastability (TSF) regimes, designed to capture forecasting-relevant properties rather than application-defined domain labels. The benchmark is built upon \textsc{Quito}, a billion-scale time series corpus of application traffic from Alipay spanning nine business domains. Benchmarking 10 models from deep learning, foundation models, and statistical baselines across 232,200 evaluation instances, we report four key findings: (i) a context-length crossover where deep learning models lead at short context ($L=96$) but foundation models dominate at long context ($L \ge 576$); (ii) forecastability is the dominant difficulty driver, producing a $3.64 \times$ MAE gap across regimes; (iii) deep learning models match or surpass foundation models at $59 \times$ fewer parameters; and (iv) scaling the amount of training data provides substantially greater benefit than scaling model size for both model families. These findings are validated by strong cross-benchmark and cross-metric consistency. Our open-source release enables reproducible, regime-aware evaluation for time series forecasting research.

Siqiao Xue
Zhaoyang Zhu
Wei Zhang
Rongyao Cai
Rui Wang
Yixiang Mu
Fan Zhou
Jianguo Li
Peng Di
Hang Yu


IPatch: A Multi-Resolution Transformer Architecture for Robust Time-Series Forecasting

Abstract: Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series remains challenging due to the need to capture both short-term fluctuations and long-range temporal dependencies. Transformer-based models have emerged as a powerful approach, but their performance depends critically on the representation of temporal data. Traditional point-wise representations preserve individual time-step information, enabling fine-grained modeling, yet they tend to be computationally expensive and less effective at modeling broader contextual dependencies, limiting their scalability to long sequences. Patch-wise representations aggregate consecutive steps into compact tokens to improve efficiency and model local temporal dynamics, but they often discard fine-grained temporal details that are critical for accurate predictions in volatile or complex time series. We propose IPatch, a multi-resolution Transformer architecture that integrates both point-wise and patch-wise tokens, modeling temporal information at multiple resolutions. Experiments on 7 benchmark datasets demonstrate that IPatch consistently improves forecasting accuracy, robustness to noise, and generalization across various prediction horizons compared to single-representation baselines.

Aymane Harkati
Moncef Garouani
Olivier Teste
Julien Aligon
Mohamed Hamlich


Forecasting with Guidance: Representation-Level Supervision for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Nowadays, time series forecasting is predominantly approached through the end-to-end training of deep learning architectures using error-based objectives. While this is effective at minimizing average loss, it encourages the encoder to discard informative yet extreme patterns. This results in smooth predictions and temporal representations that poorly capture salient dynamics. To address this issue, we propose ReGuider, a plug-in method that can be seamlessly integrated into any forecasting architecture. ReGuider leverages pretrained time series foundation models as semantic teachers. During training, the input sequence is processed together by the target forecasting model and the pretrained model. Rather than using the pretrained model's outputs directly, we extract its intermediate embeddings, which are rich in temporal and semantic information, and align them with the target model's encoder embeddings through representation-level supervision. This alignment process enables the encoder to learn more expressive temporal representations, thereby improving the accuracy of downstream forecasting. Extensive experimentation across diverse datasets and architectures demonstrates that our ReGuider consistently improves forecasting performance, confirming its effectiveness and versatility.

Jiacheng Wang
Liang Fan
Baihua Li
Luyan Zhang


CoRA: Boosting Time Series Foundation Models for Multivariate Forecasting through Correlation-aware Adapter

Abstract: Most existing Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) use channel independent modeling and focus on capturing and generalizing temporal dependencies, while neglecting the correlations among channels or overlooking the different aspects of correlations. However, these correlations play a vital role in Multivariate time series forecasting. To address this, we propose a CoRrelation-aware Adapter (CoRA), a lightweight plug-and-play method that requires only fine-tuning with TSFMs and is able to capture different types of correlations, so as to improve forecast performance. Specifically, to reduce complexity, we innovatively decompose the correlation matrix into low-rank Time-Varying and Time-Invariant components. For the Time-Varying component, we further design learnable polynomials to learn dynamic correlations by capturing trends or periodic patterns. To learn positive and negative correlations that appear only among some channels, we introduce a novel dual contrastive learning method that identifies correlations through projection layers, regulated by a Heterogeneous-Partial contrastive loss during training, without introducing additional complexity in the inference stage. Extensive experiments on 10 real-world datasets demonstrate that CoRA can improve TSFMs in multivariate forecasting performance.

Hanyin Cheng
Xingjian Wu
Yang Shu
Zhongwen Rao
Lujia Pan
Bin Yang
Chenjuan Guo


A Foundation Model for Instruction-Conditioned In-Context Time Series Tasks

Abstract: In-context learning (ICL) enables task adaptation at inference time by conditioning on demonstrations rather than updating model parameters. Although recent time-series foundation models incorporate contextual conditioning, retrieval, or example-based prompting, they typically rely on implicit positional structure or task-specific objectives rather than explicit instruction-conditioned input-output demonstrations. We introduce iAmTime, a time-series foundation model trained with instruction-conditioned amortized meta-learning to infer tasks directly from example demonstrations. iAmTime represents each episode as a structured prompt over historical context and future-known variables using specialized semantic tokens that attend to designated time-series regions, exchange information across demonstrations, and inject task information into the query representation. The model combines a Hierarchical Multi-Scope Transformer Encoder, which captures temporal and covariate dynamics while inferring latent task structure from demonstrated input-output mappings, with a Task-Conditioned Patch Decoder, which adapts decoding through expert-based routing. We train iAmTime on large-scale real and synthetic corpora using supervised and self-supervised instruction-conditioned tasks, including forecasting, imputation, reconstruction, classification, anomaly detection, and source de-mixing. Across diverse domains, frequencies, and horizons, iAmTime improves zero-shot adaptation over strong time-series foundation baselines on probabilistic and point forecasting benchmarks, while achieving competitive performance on non-forecasting tasks such as classification.


FISformer: Replacing Self-Attention with a Fuzzy Inference System in Transformer Models for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Transformers have achieved remarkable progress in time series forecasting, yet their reliance on deterministic dot-product attention limits their capacity to model uncertainty and nonlinear dependencies across multivariate temporal dimensions. To address this limitation, we propose FISFormer, a Fuzzy Inference System-driven Transformer that replaces conventional attention with a FIS Interaction mechanism. In this framework, each query-key pair undergoes a fuzzy inference process for every feature dimension, where learnable membership functions and rule-based reasoning estimate token-wise relational strengths. These FIS-derived interaction weights capture uncertainty and provide interpretable, continuous mappings between tokens. A softmax operation is applied along the token axis to normalize these weights, which are then combined with the corresponding value features through element-wise multiplication to yield the final context-enhanced token representations. This design fuses the interpretability and uncertainty modeling of fuzzy logic with the representational power of Transformers. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that FISFormer achieves superior forecasting accuracy, noise robustness, and interpretability compared to state-of-the-art Transformer variants, establishing fuzzy inference as an effective alternative to conventional attention mechanisms.


Integrating Inductive Biases in Transformers via Distillation for Financial Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Transformer-based models have been widely adopted for time-series forecasting due to their high representational capacity and architectural flexibility. However, many Transformer variants implicitly assume stationarity and stable temporal dynamics -- assumptions routinely violated in financial markets characterized by regime shifts and non-stationarity. Empirically, state-of-the-art time-series Transformers often underperform even vanilla Transformers on financial tasks, while simpler architectures with distinct inductive biases, such as CNNs and RNNs, can achieve stronger performance with substantially lower complexity. At the same time, no single inductive bias dominates across markets or regimes, suggesting that robust financial forecasting requires integrating complementary temporal priors. We propose TIPS (Transformer with Inductive Prior Synthesis), a knowledge distillation framework that synthesizes diverse inductive biases -- causality, locality, and periodicity -- within a unified Transformer. TIPS trains bias-specialized Transformer teachers via attention masking, then distills their knowledge into a single student model with regime-dependent alignment across inductive biases. Across four major equity markets, TIPS achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming strong ensemble baselines by 55%, 9%, and 16% in annual return, Sharpe ratio, and Calmar ratio, while requiring only 38% of the inference-time computation. Further analyses show that TIPS generates statistically significant excess returns beyond both vanilla Transformers and its teacher ensembles, and exhibits regime-dependent behavioral alignment with classical architectures during their profitable periods. These results highlight the importance of regime-dependent inductive bias utilization for robust generalization in non-stationary financial time series.

Yu-Chen Den
Kuan-Yu Chen
Kendro Vincent
Darby Tien-Hao Chang


Not All Retrievals are Useful: Cross-Attention for Input-Aware RAG in Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enhances zero-shot time series (TS) forecasting by leveraging external knowledge bases, yet existing approaches overlook input-level relevance when fusing retrieved samples with the query. We argue that not all retrievals are equally useful, and irrelevant ones can degrade performance. To this end, we propose Cross-RAG, a zero-shot RAG-based forecasting framework that selectively attends to query-relevant retrieved samples via query--retrieval cross-attention. By modeling input-level relevance between the query and retrieved samples, Cross-RAG jointly incorporates three sources of information: 1) the query itself, 2) the retrieved samples, and 3) their relational interactions. In particular, this input-aware design enables Cross-RAG to remain stable as the number of retrieved samples $k$ grows, whereas prior methods without cross-attention require careful $k$ tuning to avoid degradation from irrelevant retrievals. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Cross-RAG consistently improves zero-shot forecasting performance across multiple TSFM backbones and various RAG methods, with additional analyses confirming its effectiveness across various retrieval scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/seunghan96/cross-rag/.

Seunghan Lee
Jaehoon Lee
Jun Seo
Sungdong Yoo
Minjae Kim
Tae Yoon Lim
Dongwan Kang
Hwanil Choi
SoonYoung Lee
Wonbin Ahn


Interventional Time Series Priors for Causal Foundation Models

Abstract: Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose \textbf{CausalTimePrior}, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.


Dissecting Chronos: Sparse Autoencoders Reveal Causal Feature Hierarchies in Time Series Foundation Models

Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, yet their internal representations remain opaque. We present the first application of sparse autoencoders (SAEs) to a TSFM, training TopK SAEs on activations of Chronos-T5-Large (710M parameters) across six layers. Through 392 single-feature ablation experiments, we establish that every ablated feature produces a positive CRPS degradation, confirming causal relevance. Our analysis reveals a depth-dependent hierarchy: early encoder layers encode low-level frequency features, the mid-encoder concentrates causally critical change-detection features, and the final encoder compresses a rich but less causally important taxonomy of temporal concepts. The most critical features reside in the mid-encoder (max single-feature Delta CRPS = 38.61), not in the semantically richest final encoder layer, where progressive ablation paradoxically improves forecast quality. These findings demonstrate that mechanistic interpretability transfers effectively to TSFMs and that Chronos-T5 relies on abrupt-dynamics detection rather than periodic pattern recognition.


UTICA: Multi-Objective Self-Distllation Foundation Model Pretraining for Time Series Classification

Abstract: Self-supervised foundation models have achieved remarkable success across domains, including time series. However, the potential of non-contrastive methods, a paradigm that has driven significant advances in computer vision, remains underexplored for time series. In this work, we adapt DINOv2-style self-distillation to pretrain a time series foundation model, building on the Mantis tokenizer and transformer encoder architecture as our backbone. Through a student-teacher framework, our method Utica learns representations that capture both temporal invariance via augmented crops and fine-grained local structure via patch masking. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art classification performance on both UCR and UEA benchmarks. These results suggest that non-contrastive methods are a promising and complementary pretraining strategy for time series foundation models.

Yessin Moakher
Youssef Attia El Hili
Vasilii Feofanov


Retrodictive Forecasting: A Proof-of-Concept for Exploiting Temporal Asymmetry in Time Series Prediction

Abstract: We propose a retrodictive forecasting paradigm for time series: instead of predicting the future from the past, we identify the future that best explains the observed present via inverse MAP optimization over a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE). This conditioning is a statistical modeling choice for Bayesian inversion; it does not assert that future events cause past observations. The approach is theoretically grounded in an information-theoretic arrow-of-time measure: the symmetrized Kullback-Leibler divergence between forward and time-reversed trajectory ensembles provides both the conceptual rationale and an operational GO/NO-GO diagnostic for applicability. We implement the paradigm as MAP inference over an inverse CVAE with a learned RealNVP normalizing-flow prior and evaluate it on six time series cases: four synthetic processes with controlled temporal asymmetry and two ERA5 reanalysis datasets (wind speed and solar irradiance). The work makes four contributions: (i) a formal retrodictive inference formulation; (ii) an inverse CVAE architecture; (iii) a model-free irreversibility diagnostic; and (iv) a falsifiable validation protocol with four pre-specified predictions. All pre-specified predictions are empirically supported: the diagnostic correctly classifies all six cases; the learned flow prior improves over an isotropic Gaussian baseline on GO cases; the inverse MAP yields no spurious advantage on time-reversible dynamics; and on irreversible GO cases, it achieves competitive or superior RMSE relative to forward baselines, with a statistically significant 17.7% reduction over a forward MLP on ERA5 solar irradiance. These results provide a structured proof-of-concept that retrodictive forecasting can constitute a viable alternative to conventional forward prediction when statistical time-irreversibility is present and exploitable.


Time Series Foundation Models as Strong Baselines in Transportation Forecasting: A Large-Scale Benchmark Analysis

Abstract: Accurate forecasting of transportation dynamics is essential for urban mobility and infrastructure planning. Although recent work has achieved strong performance with deep learning models, these methods typically require dataset-specific training, architecture design and hyper-parameter tuning. This paper evaluates whether general-purpose time-series foundation models can serve as forecasters for transportation tasks by benchmarking the zero-shot performance of the state-of-the-art model, Chronos-2, across ten real-world datasets covering highway traffic volume and flow, urban traffic speed, bike-sharing demand, and electric vehicle charging station data. Under a consistent evaluation protocol, we find that, even without any task-specific fine-tuning, Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art or competitive accuracy across most datasets, frequently outperforming classical statistical baselines and specialized deep learning architectures, particularly at longer horizons. Beyond point forecasting, we evaluate its native probabilistic outputs using prediction-interval coverage and sharpness, demonstrating that Chronos-2 also provides useful uncertainty quantification without dataset-specific training. In general, this study supports the adoption of time-series foundation models as a key baseline for transportation forecasting research.


DualWeaver: Synergistic Feature Weaving Surrogates for Multivariate Forecasting with Univariate Time Series Foundation Models

Abstract: Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) have achieved strong univariate forecasting through large-scale pre-training, yet effectively extending this success to multivariate forecasting remains challenging. To address this, we propose DualWeaver, a novel framework that adapts univariate TSFMs (Uni-TSFMs) for multivariate forecasting by using a pair of learnable, structurally symmetric surrogate series. Generated by a shared auxiliary feature-fusion module that captures cross-variable dependencies, these surrogates are mapped to TSFM-compatible series via the forecasting objective. The symmetric structure enables parameter-free reconstruction of final predictions directly from the surrogates, without additional parametric decoding. A theoretically grounded regularization term is further introduced to enhance robustness against adaptation collapse. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets show that DualWeaver outperforms state-of-the-art multivariate forecasters in both accuracy and stability. We release the code at https://github.com/li-jinpeng/DualWeaver.

Jinpeng Li
Zhongyi Pei
Huaze Xue
Bojian Zheng
Chen Wang
Jianmin Wang


Reverso: Efficient Time Series Foundation Models for Zero-shot Forecasting

Abstract: Learning time series foundation models has been shown to be a promising approach for zero-shot time series forecasting across diverse time series domains. Insofar as scaling has been a critical driver of performance of foundation models in other modalities such as language and vision, much recent work on time series foundation modeling has focused on scaling. This has resulted in time series foundation models with hundreds of millions of parameters that are, while performant, inefficient and expensive to use in practice. This paper describes a simple recipe for learning efficient foundation models for zero-shot time series forecasting that are orders of magnitude smaller. We show that large-scale transformers are not necessary: small hybrid models that interleave long convolution and linear RNN layers (in particular DeltaNet layers) can match the performance of larger transformer-based models while being more than a hundred times smaller. We also describe several data augmentation and inference strategies that further improve performance. This recipe results in Reverso, a family of efficient time series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting that significantly push the performance-efficiency Pareto frontier.

Xinghong Fu
Yanhong Li
Georgios Papaioannou
Yoon Kim


Structure-Aware Set Transformers: Temporal and Variable-Type Attention Biases for Asynchronous Clinical Time Series

Abstract: Electronic health records (EHR) are irregular, asynchronous multivariate time series. As time-series foundation models increasingly tokenize events rather than discretizing time, the input layout becomes a key design choice. Grids expose time$\times$variable structure but require imputation or missingness masks, risking error or sampling-policy shortcuts. Point-set tokenization avoids discretization but loses within-variable trajectories and time-local cross-variable context (Fig.1). We restore these priors in STructure-AwaRe (STAR) Set Transformer by adding parameter-efficient soft attention biases: a temporal locality penalty $-|Δt|/τ$ with learnable timescales and a variable-type affinity $B_{s_i,s_j}$ from a learned feature-compatibility matrix. We benchmark 10 depth-wise fusion schedules (Fig.2). On three ICU prediction tasks, STAR-Set achieves AUC/APR of 0.7158/0.0026 (CPR), 0.9164/0.2033 (mortality), and 0.8373/0.1258 (vasopressor use), outperforming regular-grid, event-time grid, and prior set baselines. Learned $τ$ and $B$ provide interpretable summaries of temporal context and variable interactions, offering a practical plug-in for context-informed time-series models.

Joohyung Lee
Kwanhyung Lee
Changhun Kim
Eunho Yang


EIDOS: Latent-Space Predictive Learning for Time Series Foundation Models

Abstract: Most time series foundation models are pretrained by directly predicting future observations, which often yields weakly structured latent representations that capture surface noise rather than coherent and predictable temporal dynamics. In this work, we introduce EIDOS, a foundation model family that shifts pretraining from future value prediction to latent-space predictive learning. We train a causal Transformer to predict the evolution of latent representations, encouraging the emergence of structured and temporally coherent latent states. To ensure stable targets for latent-space learning, we design a lightweight aggregation branch to construct target representations. EIDOS is optimized via a joint objective that integrates latent-space alignment, observational grounding to anchor representations to the input signal, and direct forecasting supervision. On the GIFT-Eval benchmark, EIDOS mitigates structural fragmentation in the representation space and achieves state-of-the-art performance. These results demonstrate that constraining models to learn predictable latent dynamics is a principled step toward more robust and reliable time series foundation models.

Xinxing Zhou
Qingren Yao
Yiji Zhao
Chenghao Liu
Flora Salim
Xiaojie Yuan
Yanlong Wen
Ming Jin


Forecasting Commencing Enrolments Under Data Sparsity: A Zero-Shot Time Series Foundation Models Framework for Higher Education Planning

Abstract: Effective resource allocation in higher education depends on reliable enrolment forecasts, yet institutional planners frequently face data series disrupted by structural shifts. This paper investigates whether zero-shot Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) can provide rigorous decision support for annual enrolment forecasting under severe data sparsity. We benchmark multiple TSFMs against classical operational baselines using an expanding-window backtest that mirrors decision-time constraints. To capture environmental shifts without look-ahead bias, we introduce a leakage-safe covariate protocol that integrates feature-engineered Google Trends with the Institutional Operating Conditions Index (IOCI), a transferable regime measure extracted from historical narrative evidence. Our evaluation demonstrates that covariate-conditioned TSFMs are competitive with classical methods and can improve accuracy without requiring bespoke institutional training. However, the operational benefits depend on cohort characteristics and covariate design. This study provides an auditable and transferable forecasting protocol for operational researchers and university administrators, helping institutions determine when context-aware forecasting adds practical value under limited data and structural instability.

Jittarin Jetwiriyanon
Teo Susnjak
Surangika Ranathunga


DiTS: Multimodal Diffusion Transformers Are Time Series Forecasters

Abstract: While generative modeling on time series facilitates more capable and flexible probabilistic forecasting, existing generative time series models do not address the multi-dimensional properties of time series data well. The prevalent architecture of Diffusion Transformers (DiT), which relies on simplistic conditioning controls and a single-stream Transformer backbone, tends to underutilize cross-variate dependencies in covariate-aware forecasting. Inspired by Multimodal Diffusion Transformers that integrate textual guidance into video generation, we propose Diffusion Transformers for Time Series (DiTS), a general-purpose architecture that frames endogenous and exogenous variates as distinct modalities. To better capture both inter-variate and intra-variate dependencies, we design a dual-stream Transformer block tailored for time-series data, comprising a Time Attention module for autoregressive modeling along the temporal dimension and a Variate Attention module for cross-variate modeling. Unlike the common approach for images, which flattens 2D token grids into 1D sequences, our design leverages the low-rank property inherent in multivariate dependencies, thereby reducing computational costs. Experiments show that DiTS achieves state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks, regardless of the presence of future exogenous variate observations, demonstrating unique generative forecasting strengths over traditional deterministic deep forecasting models.

Haoran Zhang
Haixuan Liu
Yong Liu
Yunzhong Qiu
Yuxuan Wang
Jianmin Wang
Mingsheng Long


Revisiting the Generic Transformer: Deconstructing a Strong Baseline for Time Series Foundation Models

Abstract: The recent surge in Time Series Foundation Models has rapidly advanced the field, yet the heterogeneous training setups across studies make it difficult to attribute improvements to architectural innovations versus data engineering. In this work, we investigate the potential of a standard patch Transformer, demonstrating that this generic architecture achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot forecasting performance using a straightforward training protocol. We conduct a comprehensive ablation study that covers model scaling, data composition, and training techniques to isolate the essential ingredients for high performance. Our findings identify the key drivers of performance, while confirming that the generic architecture itself demonstrates excellent scalability. By strictly controlling these variables, we provide comprehensive empirical results on model scaling across multiple dimensions. We release our open-source model and detailed findings to establish a transparent, reproducible baseline for future research.

Yunshi Wen
Wesley M. Gifford
Chandra Reddy
Lam M. Nguyen
Jayant Kalagnanam
Anak Agung Julius


Assessing Electricity Demand Forecasting with Exogenous Data in Time Series Foundation Models

Abstract: Time-series foundation models have emerged as a new paradigm for forecasting, yet their ability to effectively leverage exogenous features -- critical for electricity demand forecasting -- remains unclear. This paper empirically evaluates foundation models capable of modeling cross-channel correlations against a baseline LSTM with reversible instance normalization across Singaporean and Australian electricity markets at hourly and daily granularities. We systematically assess MOIRAI, MOMENT, TinyTimeMixers, ChronosX, and Chronos-2 under three feature configurations: all features, selected features, and target-only. Our findings reveal highly variable effectiveness: while Chronos-2 achieves the best performance among foundation models (in zero-shot settings), the simple baseline frequently outperforms all foundation models in Singapore's stable climate, particularly for short-term horizons. Model architecture proves critical, with synergistic architectural implementations (TTM's channel-mixing, Chronos-2's grouped attention) consistently leveraging exogenous features, while other approaches show inconsistent benefits. Geographic context emerges as equally important, with foundation models demonstrating advantages primarily in variable climates. These results challenge assumptions about universal foundation model superiority and highlight the need for domain-specific models, specifically in the energy domain.

Wei Soon Cheong
Lian Lian Jiang
Jamie Ng Suat Ling


Position: Beyond Model-Centric Prediction -- Agentic Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Time series forecasting has traditionally been formulated as a model-centric, static, and single-pass prediction problem that maps historical observations to future values. While this paradigm has driven substantial progress, it proves insufficient in adaptive and multi-turn settings where forecasting requires informative feature extraction, reasoning-driven inference, iterative refinement, and continual adaptation over time. In this paper, we argue for agentic time series forecasting (ATSF), which reframes forecasting as an agentic process composed of perception, planning, action, reflection, and memory. Rather than focusing solely on predictive models, ATSF emphasizes organizing forecasting as an agentic workflow that can interact with tools, incorporate feedback from outcomes, and evolve through experience accumulation. We outline three representative implementation paradigms -- workflow-based design, agentic reinforcement learning, and a hybrid agentic workflow paradigm -- and discuss the opportunities and challenges that arise when shifting from model-centric prediction to agentic forecasting. Together, this position aims to establish agentic forecasting as a foundation for future research at the intersection of time series forecasting.

Mingyue Cheng
Xiaoyu Tao
Qi Liu
Ze Guo
Enhong Chen


SEDformer: Event-Synchronous Spiking Transformers for Irregular Telemetry Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Telemetry streams from large-scale Internet-connected systems (e.g., IoT deployments and online platforms) naturally form an irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) whose accurate forecasting is operationally vital. A closer examination reveals a defining Sparsity-Event Duality (SED) property of IMTS, i.e., long stretches with sparse or no observations are punctuated by short, dense bursts where most semantic events (observations) occur. However, existing Graph- and Transformer-based forecasters ignore SED: pre-alignment to uniform grids with heavy padding violates sparsity by inflating sequences and forcing computation at non-informative steps, while relational recasting weakens event semantics by disrupting local temporal continuity. These limitations motivate a more faithful and natural modeling paradigm for IMTS that aligns with its SED property. We find that Spiking Neural Networks meet this requirement, as they communicate via sparse binary spikes and update in an event-driven manner, aligning naturally with the SED nature of IMTS. Therefore, we present SEDformer, an SED-enhanced Spiking Transformer for telemetry IMTS forecasting that couples: (1) a SED-based Spike Encoder converts raw observations into event synchronous spikes using an Event-Aligned LIF neuron, (2) an Event-Preserving Temporal Downsampling module compresses long gaps while retaining salient firings and (3) a stack of SED-based Spike Transformer blocks enable intra-series dependency modeling with a membrane-based linear attention driven by EA-LIF spiking features. Experiments on public telemetry IMTS datasets show that SEDformer attains state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy while reducing energy and memory usage, providing a natural and efficient path for modeling IMTS.

Ziyu Zhou
Yuchen Fang
Weilin Ruan
Shiyu Wang
James Kwok
Yuxuan Liang


Seg-MoE: Multi-Resolution Segment-wise Mixture-of-Experts for Time Series Forecasting Transformers

Abstract: Transformer-based models have recently made significant advances in accurate time-series forecasting, but even these architectures struggle to scale efficiently while capturing long-term temporal dynamics. Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layers are a proven solution to scaling problems in natural language processing. However, existing MoE approaches for time-series forecasting rely on token-wise routing mechanisms, which may fail to exploit the natural locality and continuity of temporal data. In this work, we introduce Seg-MoE, a sparse MoE design that routes and processes contiguous time-step segments rather than making independent expert decisions. Token segments allow each expert to model intra-segment interactions directly, naturally aligning with inherent temporal patterns. We integrate Seg-MoE layers into a time-series Transformer and evaluate it on multiple multivariate long-term forecasting benchmarks. Seg-MoE consistently achieves state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy across almost all prediction horizons, outperforming both dense Transformers and prior token-wise MoE models. Comprehensive ablation studies confirm that segment-level routing is the key factor driving these gains. Our results show that aligning the MoE routing granularity with the inherent structure of time series provides a powerful, yet previously underexplored, inductive bias, opening new avenues for conditionally sparse architectures in sequential data modeling.


TimeCatcher: A Variational Framework for Volatility-Aware Forecasting of Non-Stationary Time Series

Abstract: Recent lightweight MLP-based models have achieved strong performance in time series forecasting by capturing stable trends and seasonal patterns. However, their effectiveness hinges on an implicit assumption of local stationarity assumption, making them prone to errors in long-term forecasting of highly non-stationary series, especially when abrupt fluctuations occur, a common challenge in domains like web traffic monitoring. To overcome this limitation, we propose TimeCatcher, a novel Volatility-Aware Variational Forecasting framework. TimeCatcher extends linear architectures with a variational encoder to capture latent dynamic patterns hidden in historical data and a volatility-aware enhancement mechanism to detect and amplify significant local variations. Experiments on nine real-world datasets from traffic, financial, energy, and weather domains show that TimeCatcher consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, with particularly large improvements in long-term forecasting scenarios characterized by high volatility and sudden fluctuations. Our code is available at https://github.com/ColaPrinceCHEN/TimeCatcher.


PatchFormer: A Patch-Based Time Series Foundation Model with Hierarchical Masked Reconstruction and Cross-Domain Transfer Learning for Zero-Shot Multi-Horizon Forecasting

Abstract: Time series forecasting is a fundamental problem with applications in climate, energy, healthcare, and finance. Many existing approaches require domain-specific feature engineering and substantial labeled data for each task. We introduce PatchFormer, a patch-based time series foundation model that uses hierarchical masked reconstruction for self-supervised pretraining and lightweight adapters for efficient transfer. PatchFormer segments time series into patches and learns multiscale temporal representations with learnable aggregation across temporal scales. Pretraining uses masked patch reconstruction with dynamic masking and objectives that encourage both local accuracy and global consistency, followed by cross-domain knowledge distillation. Experiments on 24 benchmark datasets spanning weather, energy, traffic, finance, and healthcare demonstrate state-of-the-art zero-shot multi-horizon forecasting, reducing mean squared error by 27.3 percent relative to strong baselines while requiring 94 percent less task-specific training data. The model exhibits near log-linear scaling with more pretraining data up to 100 billion points and processes length-512 sequences 3.8x faster than full-sequence transformers.

Olaf Yunus Laitinen Imanov
Derya Umut Kulali
Taner Yilmaz


ScatterFusion: A Hierarchical Scattering Transform Framework for Enhanced Time Series Forecasting

Abstract: Time series forecasting presents significant challenges due to the complex temporal dependencies at multiple time scales. This paper introduces ScatterFusion, a novel framework that synergistically integrates scattering transforms with hierarchical attention mechanisms for robust time series forecasting. Our approach comprises four key components: (1) a Hierarchical Scattering Transform Module (HSTM) that extracts multi-scale invariant features capturing both local and global patterns; (2) a Scale-Adaptive Feature Enhancement (SAFE) module that dynamically adjusts feature importance across different scales; (3) a Multi-Resolution Temporal Attention (MRTA) mechanism that learns dependencies at varying time horizons; and (4) a Trend-Seasonal-Residual (TSR) decomposition-guided structure-aware loss function. Extensive experiments on seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that ScatterFusion outperforms other common methods, achieving significant reductions in error metrics across various prediction horizons.

IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing


Intermittent time series forecasting: local vs global models

Abstract: Forecasting intermittent time series, which contain zeros, is a crucial challenge in supply chains as inventory policies require probabilistic forecasts to establish safety levels. Intermittent time series are commonly forecast using local models, trained individually on each time series. In the last years global models, trained on a large collection of time series, have become popular for time series forecasting. Global models are often based on neural networks or gradient boosted trees. We carry out the first study comparing state-of-the-art probabilistic local and global models on intermittent time series. For global models we consider three different distribution heads suitable for intermittent time series: negative binomial, hurdle-shifted negative binomial and Tweedie. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first use of the latter two with neural networks. We perform experiments on five datasets comprising overall more than 40'000 real-world time series. Among global models, TiDE, a simple neural network architecture, achieves the best accuracy; it also consistently outperforms local models and has lower computational requirements. Large global models are instead much more computationally demanding and less accurate. Among the distribution heads, the Tweedie provides the best estimates of the highest quantiles.

Stefano Damato
Nicolò Rubattu
Dario Azzimonti
Giorgio Corani


Distilling Time Series Foundation Models for Efficient Forecasting

Abstract: Time Series foundation models (TSFMs) deliver strong forecasting performance through large-scale pretraining, but their large parameter sizes make deployment costly. While knowledge distillation offers a natural and effective approach for model compression, techniques developed for general machine learning tasks are not directly applicable to time series forecasting due to the unique characteristics. To address this, we present DistilTS, the first distillation framework specifically designed for TSFMs. DistilTS addresses two key challenges: (1) task difficulty discrepancy, specific to forecasting, where uniform weighting makes optimization dominated by easier short-term horizons, while long-term horizons receive weaker supervision; and (2) architecture discrepancy, a general challenge in distillation, for which we design an alignment mechanism in the time series forecasting. To overcome these issues, DistilTS introduces horizon-weighted objectives to balance learning across horizons, and a temporal alignment strategy that reduces architectural mismatch, enabling compact models. Experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that DistilTS achieves forecasting performance comparable to full-sized TSFMs, while reducing parameters by up to 1/150 and accelerating inference by up to 6000x. Code is available at: https://github.com/itsnotacie/DistilTS-ICASSP2026.

Yuqi Li
Kuiye Ding
Chuanguang Yang
Szu-Yu Chen
Yingli Tian


Trend-Adjusted Time Series Models with an Application to Gold Price Forecasting

Abstract: Time series data play a critical role in various fields, including finance, healthcare, marketing, and engineering. A wide range of techniques (from classical statistical models to neural network-based approaches such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)) have been employed to address time series forecasting challenges. In this paper, we reframe time series forecasting as a two-part task: (1) predicting the trend (directional movement) of the time series at the next time step, and (2) forecasting the quantitative value at the next time step. The trend can be predicted using a binary classifier, while quantitative values can be forecasted using models such as LSTM and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM). Building on this reframing, we propose the Trend-Adjusted Time Series (TATS) model, which adjusts the forecasted values based on the predicted trend provided by the binary classifier. We validate the proposed approach through both theoretical analysis and empirical evaluation. The TATS model is applied to a volatile financial time series (the daily gold price) with the objective of forecasting the next days price. Experimental results demonstrate that TATS consistently outperforms standard LSTM and Bi-LSTM models by achieving significantly lower forecasting error. In addition, our results indicate that commonly used metrics such as MSE and MAE are insufficient for fully assessing time series model performance. Therefore, we also incorporate trend detection accuracy, which measures how effectively a model captures trends in a time series.


Patch-Level Tokenization with CNN Encoders and Attention for Improved Transformer Time-Series Forecasting

Abstract: Transformer-based models have shown strong performance in time-series forecasting by leveraging self-attention to model long-range temporal dependencies. However, their effectiveness depends critically on the quality and structure of input representations derived from raw multivariate time-series data, particularly as sequence length and data scale increase. This paper proposes a two-stage forecasting framework that explicitly separates local temporal representation learning from global dependency modelling. In the proposed approach, a convolutional neural network operates on fixed-length temporal patches to extract short-range temporal dynamics and non-linear feature interactions, producing compact patch-level token embeddings. Token-level self-attention is applied during representation learning to refine these embeddings, after which a Transformer encoder models inter-patch temporal dependencies to generate forecasts. The method is evaluated on a synthetic multivariate time-series dataset with controlled static and dynamic factors, using an extended sequence length and a larger number of samples. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently outperforms a convolutional baseline under increased temporal context and remains competitive with a strong patch-based Transformer model. These findings indicate that structured patch-level tokenization provides a scalable and effective representation for multivariate time-series forecasting, particularly when longer input sequences are considered.


Shapelets-Enriched Selective Forecasting using Time Series Foundation Models

Abstract: Time series foundation models have recently gained a lot of attention due to their ability to model complex time series data encompassing different domains including traffic, energy, and weather. Although they exhibit strong average zero-shot performance on forecasting tasks, their predictions on certain critical regions of the data are not always reliable, limiting their usability in real-world applications, especially when data exhibits unique trends. In this paper, we propose a selective forecasting framework to identify these critical segments of time series using shapelets. We learn shapelets using shift-invariant dictionary learning on the validation split of the target domain dataset. Utilizing distance-based similarity to these shapelets, we facilitate the user to selectively discard unreliable predictions and be informed of the model's realistic capabilities. Empirical results on diverse benchmark time series datasets demonstrate that our approach leveraging both zero-shot and full-shot fine-tuned models reduces the overall error by an average of 22.17% for zero-shot and 22.62% for full-shot fine-tuned model. Furthermore, our approach using zero-shot and full-shot fine-tuned models, also outperforms its random selection counterparts by up to 21.41% and 21.43% on one of the datasets.

Shivani Tomar
Seshu Tirupathi
Elizabeth Daly
Ivana Dusparic


ProbFM: Probabilistic Time Series Foundation Model with Uncertainty Decomposition

Abstract: Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have emerged as a promising approach for zero-shot financial forecasting, demonstrating strong transferability and data efficiency gains. However, their adoption in financial applications is hindered by fundamental limitations in uncertainty quantification: current approaches either rely on restrictive distributional assumptions, conflate different sources of uncertainty, or lack principled calibration mechanisms. While recent TSFMs employ sophisticated techniques such as mixture models, Student's t-distributions, or conformal prediction, they fail to address the core challenge of providing theoretically-grounded uncertainty decomposition. For the very first time, we present a novel transformer-based probabilistic framework, ProbFM (probabilistic foundation model), that leverages Deep Evidential Regression (DER) to provide principled uncertainty quantification with explicit epistemic-aleatoric decomposition. Unlike existing approaches that pre-specify distributional forms or require sampling-based inference, ProbFM learns optimal uncertainty representations through higher-order evidence learning while maintaining single-pass computational efficiency. To rigorously evaluate the core DER uncertainty quantification approach independent of architectural complexity, we conduct an extensive controlled comparison study using a consistent LSTM architecture across five probabilistic methods: DER, Gaussian NLL, Student's-t NLL, Quantile Loss, and Conformal Prediction. Evaluation on cryptocurrency return forecasting demonstrates that DER maintains competitive forecasting accuracy while providing explicit epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition. This work establishes both an extensible framework for principled uncertainty quantification in foundation models and empirical evidence for DER's effectiveness in financial applications.

Arundeep Chinta
Lucas Vinh Tran
Jay Katukuri


The Promise of Time-Series Foundation Models for Agricultural Forecasting: Evidence from Commodity Prices

Abstract: Forecasting agricultural markets remains challenging due to nonlinear dynamics, structural breaks, and sparse data. A long-standing belief holds that simple time-series methods outperform more advanced alternatives. This paper provides the first systematic evidence that this belief no longer holds with modern time-series foundation models (TSFMs). Using USDA ERS monthly commodity price data from 1997-2025, we evaluate 17 forecasting approaches across four model classes, including traditional time-series, machine learning, deep learning, and five state-of-the-art TSFMs (Chronos, Chronos-2, TimesFM 2.5, Time-MoE, Moirai-2), and construct annual marketing year price predictions to compare with USDA's futures-based season-average price (SAP) forecasts. We show that zero-shot foundation models consistently outperform traditional time-series methods, machine learning, and deep learning architectures trained from scratch in both monthly and annual forecasting. Furthermore, foundation models remarkably outperform USDA's futures-based forecasts on three of four major commodities despite USDA's information advantage from forward-looking futures markets. Time-MoE delivers the largest accuracy gains, achieving 54.9% improvement on wheat and 18.5% improvement on corn relative to USDA ERS benchmarks on recent data (2017-2024 excluding COVID). These results point to a paradigm shift in agricultural forecasting.