""" Livestock Health and Productivity - Sub-Saharan Africa ======================================================== Based on research: - FAO 2024: Cattle mortality 8-15% in smallholder systems - ILRI 2023: Milk yields 2-5L/day vs 15-25L potential - World Bank 2023: Poultry mortality 15-30% in traditional systems - AU-IBAR 2023: Disease prevalence 20-40% for endemic diseases - GALVmed 2023: Vaccination coverage 10-30% for priority diseases PARAMETER EVIDENCE TABLE ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Parameter │ Value Used │ Source │ Year ───────────────────────┼──────────────────┼───────────────────────────┼────── Cattle mortality │ 8-15% │ FAO 2024 │ 2024 Milk yields │ 2-5L/day │ ILRI 2023 │ 2023 Poultry mortality │ 15-30% │ World Bank 2023 │ 2023 Disease prevalence │ 20-40% │ AU-IBAR 2023 │ 2023 Vaccination coverage │ 10-30% │ GALVmed 2023 │ 2023 Goat mortality │ 10-20% │ FAO 2024 │ 2024 Author: Electric Sheep Africa """ import numpy as np import pandas as pd import argparse import os np.random.default_rng(42) COUNTRIES = ['Kenya', 'Uganda', 'Nigeria', 'Ghana', 'Tanzania', 'Ethiopia', 'Malawi', 'Zambia', 'Mali', 'Burkina Faso'] SPECIES = ['cattle', 'goats', 'sheep', 'poultry', 'pigs', 'donkeys'] PRODUCTION_SYSTEMS = ['extensive', 'semi_intensive', 'intensive', 'pastoral', 'agropastoral'] BREED_TYPES = ['local', 'crossbreed', 'exotic'] FEED_SOURCES = ['grazing', 'crop_residues', 'concentrates', 'fodder_crops', 'mixed'] HEALTH_ISSUES = ['tick_borne', 'respiratory', 'digestive', 'parasitic', 'metabolic', 'reproductive'] YEARS = list(range(2018, 2026)) SPECIES_BASE_MORTALITY = { 'cattle': 0.12, 'goats': 0.15, 'sheep': 0.14, 'poultry': 0.22, 'pigs': 0.18, 'donkeys': 0.08 } SPECIES_BASE_PRODUCTIVITY = { 'cattle': {'milk_l_day': 3.5, 'weight_gain_kg_day': 0.4, 'calving_rate': 0.55}, 'goats': {'milk_l_day': 0.8, 'weight_gain_kg_day': 0.06, 'kidding_rate': 1.2}, 'sheep': {'milk_l_day': 0.5, 'weight_gain_kg_day': 0.08, 'lambing_rate': 1.1}, 'poultry': {'eggs_year': 80, 'weight_gain_kg_week': 0.15}, 'pigs': {'litter_size': 8, 'weight_gain_kg_day': 0.35}, 'donkeys': {'work_hours_day': 4, 'weight_gain_kg_day': 0.1} } DISEASE_PREVALENCE = { 'tick_borne': 0.23, 'respiratory': 0.17, 'digestive': 0.14, 'parasitic': 0.28, 'metabolic': 0.07, 'reproductive': 0.11 } def sc(p, rng): a = np.array(list(p.values())) return rng.choice(list(p.keys()), p=a/a.sum()) def gen(n=5000, seed=42): rng = np.random.default_rng(seed) recs = [] for i in range(n): country = rng.choice(COUNTRIES) year = rng.choice(YEARS) record_id = f"LVS-{country[:3].upper()}-{year}-{i+1:05d}" farm_size = rng.lognormal(0.2, 0.6) farm_size = np.clip(farm_size, 0.2, 30.0) production_system = sc({ 'extensive': 0.35, 'semi_intensive': 0.25, 'intensive': 0.10, 'pastoral': 0.15, 'agropastoral': 0.15 }, rng) primary_species = rng.choice(SPECIES, p=[0.30, 0.25, 0.15, 0.20, 0.07, 0.03]) herd_size_base = {'cattle': 8, 'goats': 15, 'sheep': 12, 'poultry': 35, 'pigs': 6, 'donkeys': 2}[primary_species] herd_size = int(rng.lognormal(np.log(herd_size_base), 0.8)) herd_size = np.clip(herd_size, 1, {'cattle': 100, 'goats': 200, 'sheep': 150, 'poultry': 500, 'pigs': 50, 'donkeys': 10}[primary_species]) breed_type = sc({ 'local': 0.60, 'crossbreed': 0.30, 'exotic': 0.10 }, rng) feed_source = sc({ 'grazing': 0.45, 'crop_residues': 0.20, 'concentrates': 0.10, 'fodder_crops': 0.10, 'mixed': 0.15 }, rng) if production_system in ['pastoral', 'extensive']: feed_source = 'grazing' elif production_system == 'intensive': feed_source = rng.choice(['concentrates', 'mixed'], p=[0.5, 0.5]) water_access = rng.choice(['adequate', 'seasonal', 'limited', 'poor'], p=[0.35, 0.30, 0.25, 0.10]) housing_type = rng.choice(['none', 'simple_shelter', 'improved_shelter', 'modern'], p=[0.35, 0.35, 0.20, 0.10]) base_mortality = SPECIES_BASE_MORTALITY[primary_species] mortality_modifier = 1.0 mortality_modifier *= 0.7 if production_system == 'intensive' else 1.2 if production_system in ['pastoral', 'extensive'] else 1.0 mortality_modifier *= 0.8 if breed_type == 'local' else 1.1 if breed_type == 'exotic' else 1.0 mortality_modifier *= 0.9 if housing_type in ['improved_shelter', 'modern'] else 1.1 if housing_type == 'none' else 1.0 mortality_rate = base_mortality * mortality_modifier * rng.uniform(0.8, 1.2) mortality_rate = np.clip(mortality_rate, 0.03, 0.45) animals_died = int(herd_size * mortality_rate) disease_outbreak = rng.random() < 0.20 primary_disease = None if disease_outbreak: primary_disease = rng.choice(list(DISEASE_PREVALENCE.keys()), p=list(DISEASE_PREVALENCE.values())) disease_severity = rng.choice(['mild', 'moderate', 'severe'], p=[0.40, 0.40, 0.20]) if disease_outbreak else 'none' vaccination_coverage = rng.lognormal(np.log(0.20), 0.8) vaccination_coverage = np.clip(vaccination_coverage, 0.02, 0.60) animals_vaccinated = int(herd_size * vaccination_coverage) deworming_frequency = rng.choice(['never', 'yearly', 'biannual', 'quarterly'], p=[0.30, 0.35, 0.25, 0.10]) tick_control = rng.random() < 0.45 veterinary_access = rng.random() < 0.35 vet_visits_year = rng.integers(0, 6) if veterinary_access else 0 health_insurance = rng.random() < 0.05 base_prod = SPECIES_BASE_PRODUCTIVITY[primary_species] prod_modifier = 1.0 prod_modifier *= 1.3 if breed_type == 'exotic' else 1.1 if breed_type == 'crossbreed' else 1.0 prod_modifier *= 0.85 if disease_outbreak else 1.0 prod_modifier *= 0.9 if water_access in ['limited', 'poor'] else 1.0 prod_modifier *= 1.15 if production_system == 'intensive' else 0.9 if production_system == 'pastoral' else 1.0 prod_modifier *= 1.1 if feed_source in ['concentrates', 'mixed'] else 0.95 if feed_source == 'grazing' else 1.0 if primary_species == 'cattle': milk_yield_l_day = base_prod['milk_l_day'] * prod_modifier * rng.uniform(0.8, 1.2) milk_yield_l_day = np.clip(milk_yield_l_day, 0.5, 20) lactation_length_days = int(rng.normal(250, 40)) annual_milk_l = milk_yield_l_day * lactation_length_days weight_gain_kg_day = base_prod['weight_gain_kg_day'] * prod_modifier * rng.uniform(0.7, 1.3) calving_rate = base_prod['calving_rate'] * prod_modifier * rng.uniform(0.8, 1.1) calving_rate = np.clip(calving_rate, 0.3, 0.9) live_weight_kg = rng.normal(320, 60) if breed_type == 'local' else rng.normal(400, 70) elif primary_species == 'goats': milk_yield_l_day = base_prod['milk_l_day'] * prod_modifier * rng.uniform(0.7, 1.3) weight_gain_kg_day = base_prod['weight_gain_kg_day'] * prod_modifier kidding_rate = base_prod['kidding_rate'] * prod_modifier annual_milk_l = milk_yield_l_day * 180 calving_rate = kidding_rate lactation_length_days = 180 live_weight_kg = rng.normal(28, 8) elif primary_species == 'sheep': milk_yield_l_day = base_prod['milk_l_day'] weight_gain_kg_day = base_prod['weight_gain_kg_day'] * prod_modifier annual_milk_l = 0 lambing_rate = base_prod['lambing_rate'] calving_rate = lambing_rate lactation_length_days = 0 live_weight_kg = rng.normal(32, 7) elif primary_species == 'poultry': eggs_per_year = int(base_prod['eggs_year'] * prod_modifier * rng.uniform(0.7, 1.3)) weight_gain_kg_week = base_prod['weight_gain_kg_week'] * prod_modifier weight_gain_kg_day = weight_gain_kg_week / 7 milk_yield_l_day = 0 annual_milk_l = 0 calving_rate = 0 lactation_length_days = 0 live_weight_kg = rng.normal(1.8, 0.5) elif primary_species == 'pigs': litter_size = int(base_prod['litter_size'] * prod_modifier * rng.uniform(0.8, 1.2)) weight_gain_kg_day = base_prod['weight_gain_kg_day'] * prod_modifier litters_per_year = rng.uniform(1.8, 2.3) milk_yield_l_day = 0 annual_milk_l = 0 calving_rate = litter_size lactation_length_days = 0 live_weight_kg = rng.normal(80, 20) else: milk_yield_l_day = 0 annual_milk_l = 0 calving_rate = 0 lactation_length_days = 0 weight_gain_kg_day = base_prod['weight_gain_kg_day'] live_weight_kg = rng.normal(140, 25) reproductive_health = rng.random() < 0.75 fertility_issues = not reproductive_health and rng.random() < 0.25 body_condition_score = rng.integers(1, 6) nutrition_status = 'adequate' if body_condition_score >= 3 else 'poor' supplementation = rng.random() < 0.30 mineral_supplement = rng.random() < 0.20 forage_quality = rng.choice(['poor', 'moderate', 'good'], p=[0.30, 0.45, 0.25]) breeding_method = rng.choice(['natural', 'artificial_insemination', 'both'], p=[0.75, 0.10, 0.15]) record_keeping = rng.random() < 0.20 market_access = rng.choice(['farm_gate', 'local_market', 'regional', 'export'], p=[0.40, 0.35, 0.20, 0.05]) price_per_head = live_weight_kg * rng.lognormal(np.log(2.5), 0.3) annual_revenue = herd_size * price_per_head * 0.3 feed_cost = herd_size * rng.uniform(20, 80) if feed_source in ['concentrates', 'mixed'] else herd_size * rng.uniform(5, 20) health_cost = animals_vaccinated * 2 + vet_visits_year * 25 labor_cost = herd_size * rng.uniform(5, 15) total_cost = feed_cost + health_cost + labor_cost net_income = annual_revenue - total_cost productivity_index = 50 + (body_condition_score - 2) * 10 + (10 if reproductive_health else -5) productivity_index = np.clip(productivity_index, 10, 100) health_index = 100 - mortality_rate * 200 - (15 if disease_outbreak else 0) + vaccination_coverage * 50 health_index = np.clip(health_index, 10, 100) recs.append({ 'record_id': i + 1, 'livestock_id': record_id, 'country': country, 'year': year, 'farm_size_ha': round(farm_size, 2), 'production_system': production_system, 'primary_species': primary_species, 'herd_size': herd_size, 'breed_type': breed_type, 'feed_source': feed_source, 'water_access': water_access, 'housing_type': housing_type, 'mortality_rate_pct': round(mortality_rate * 100, 1), 'animals_died': animals_died, 'disease_outbreak': disease_outbreak, 'primary_disease': primary_disease if primary_disease else 'none', 'disease_severity': disease_severity, 'vaccination_coverage_pct': round(vaccination_coverage * 100, 1), 'animals_vaccinated': animals_vaccinated, 'deworming_frequency': deworming_frequency, 'tick_control': tick_control, 'veterinary_access': veterinary_access, 'vet_visits_per_year': vet_visits_year, 'health_insurance': health_insurance, 'milk_yield_l_day': round(milk_yield_l_day, 2) if milk_yield_l_day > 0 else 0, 'lactation_length_days': lactation_length_days if lactation_length_days > 0 else 0, 'annual_milk_l': round(annual_milk_l, 0) if annual_milk_l > 0 else 0, 'weight_gain_kg_day': round(weight_gain_kg_day, 3) if primary_species in ['cattle', 'goats', 'sheep', 'pigs'] else 0, 'live_weight_kg': round(live_weight_kg, 1), 'reproductive_rate': round(calving_rate, 2) if calving_rate > 0 else 0, 'reproductive_health': reproductive_health, 'fertility_issues': fertility_issues, 'body_condition_score': body_condition_score, 'nutrition_status': nutrition_status, 'supplementation': supplementation, 'mineral_supplement': mineral_supplement, 'forage_quality': forage_quality, 'breeding_method': breeding_method, 'record_keeping': record_keeping, 'market_access': market_access, 'price_per_head_usd': round(price_per_head, 2), 'annual_revenue_usd': round(annual_revenue, 2), 'feed_cost_usd': round(feed_cost, 2), 'health_cost_usd': round(health_cost, 2), 'labor_cost_usd': round(labor_cost, 2), 'total_cost_usd': round(total_cost, 2), 'net_income_usd': round(net_income, 2), 'productivity_index': round(productivity_index, 1), 'health_index': round(health_index, 1), 'mortality_category': 'low' if mortality_rate < 0.10 else 'moderate' if mortality_rate < 0.20 else 'high', 'intervention_priority': 'high' if mortality_rate > 0.20 or disease_outbreak else 'moderate' if mortality_rate > 0.12 else 'low' }) return pd.DataFrame(recs) if __name__ == "__main__": p = argparse.ArgumentParser() p.add_argument('--n', type=int, default=5000) p.add_argument('--output', type=str, default='.') a = p.parse_args() for sn, m, s in [('low_burden', 0.8, 42), ('moderate_burden', 1.0, 43), ('high_burden', 1.2, 44)]: d = gen(int(a.n * m), s) d['scenario'] = sn d.to_csv(os.path.join(a.output, f'livestock_health_productivity_africa_{sn}.csv'), index=False) print(f"Saved: livestock_health_productivity_africa_{sn}.csv, n={len(d)}")