Publish regenerated v0.3.1 data tables and audits

26 CSV configs plus schemas, hashes and deterministic audit outputs; 1,118 rows, 0 blocking errors, 6 sampling-frame warnings.

data/analytic_record_claims.csv

@@ -30,9 +30,16 @@ record-claim-case_actor-act-br-prep-tse-clm-br-004,case_actor,act-br-prep-tse,br
 record-claim-case_actor-act-br-prep-tse-clm-br-005,case_actor,act-br-prep-tse,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-005,supports_coding
 record-claim-case_actor-act-br-prep-tse-clm-br-006,case_actor,act-br-prep-tse,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-006,supports_coding
 record-claim-case_actor-act-br-prep-tse-clm-br-007,case_actor,act-br-prep-tse,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-007,supports_coding
+record-claim-case_actor-act-brprep-aggregate-clm-br-002,case_actor,act-brprep-aggregate,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-002,supports_coding
+record-claim-case_actor-act-brprep-aggregate-clm-br-003,case_actor,act-brprep-aggregate,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-003,supports_coding
+record-claim-case_actor-act-brprep-aggregate-clm-br-004,case_actor,act-brprep-aggregate,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-004,supports_coding
+record-claim-case_actor-act-brprep-aggregate-clm-br-005,case_actor,act-brprep-aggregate,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-005,supports_coding
 record-claim-case_actor-act-br-avatar-campaign-clm-br-010,case_actor,act-br-avatar-campaign,br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,clm-br-010,supports_coding
 record-claim-case_actor-act-br-avatar-campaign-clm-br-011,case_actor,act-br-avatar-campaign,br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,clm-br-011,supports_coding
 record-claim-case_actor-act-br-avatar-campaign-clm-br-020,case_actor,act-br-avatar-campaign,br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,clm-br-020,supports_coding
+record-claim-case_actor-act-usprep-aggregate-clm-us26-003,case_actor,act-usprep-aggregate,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,clm-us26-003,supports_coding
+record-claim-case_actor-act-usprep-aggregate-clm-us26-004,case_actor,act-usprep-aggregate,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,clm-us26-004,supports_coding
+record-claim-case_actor-act-usprep-aggregate-clm-us26-005,case_actor,act-usprep-aggregate,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,clm-us26-005,supports_coding
 record-claim-case_actor-act-us26-nrsc-clm-us26-008,case_actor,act-us26-nrsc,us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,clm-us26-008,supports_coding
 record-claim-case_actor-act-us26-nrsc-clm-us26-009,case_actor,act-us26-nrsc,us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,clm-us26-009,supports_coding
 record-claim-case_actor-act-us26-nrsc-clm-us26-014,case_actor,act-us26-nrsc,us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,clm-us26-014,supports_coding
@@ -56,8 +63,19 @@ record-claim-technology_use-tech-md25-mixed-clm-md-015,technology_use,tech-md25-
 record-claim-technology_use-tech-md25-mixed-clm-md-017,technology_use,tech-md25-mixed,md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,clm-md-017,supports_coding
 record-claim-technology_use-tech-nh-voice-clm-nh-001,technology_use,tech-nh-voice,us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,clm-nh-001,supports_coding
 record-claim-technology_use-tech-nh-voice-clm-nh-003,technology_use,tech-nh-voice,us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,clm-nh-003,supports_coding
+record-claim-technology_use-tech-brprep-aggregate-clm-br-002,technology_use,tech-brprep-aggregate,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-002,supports_coding
+record-claim-technology_use-tech-brprep-aggregate-clm-br-003,technology_use,tech-brprep-aggregate,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-003,supports_coding
+record-claim-technology_use-tech-brprep-aggregate-clm-br-004,technology_use,tech-brprep-aggregate,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-004,supports_coding
+record-claim-technology_use-tech-brprep-aggregate-clm-br-005,technology_use,tech-brprep-aggregate,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-005,supports_coding
+record-claim-technology_use-tech-brprep-aggregate-clm-br-006,technology_use,tech-brprep-aggregate,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-006,supports_coding
+record-claim-technology_use-tech-brprep-aggregate-clm-br-007,technology_use,tech-brprep-aggregate,br-2026-election-preparedness,clm-br-007,supports_coding
 record-claim-technology_use-tech-br-avatar-clm-br-010,technology_use,tech-br-avatar,br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,clm-br-010,supports_coding
 record-claim-technology_use-tech-br-avatar-clm-br-011,technology_use,tech-br-avatar,br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,clm-br-011,supports_coding
+record-claim-technology_use-tech-usprep-aggregate-clm-us26-002,technology_use,tech-usprep-aggregate,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,clm-us26-002,supports_coding
+record-claim-technology_use-tech-usprep-aggregate-clm-us26-003,technology_use,tech-usprep-aggregate,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,clm-us26-003,supports_coding
+record-claim-technology_use-tech-usprep-aggregate-clm-us26-004,technology_use,tech-usprep-aggregate,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,clm-us26-004,supports_coding
+record-claim-technology_use-tech-usprep-aggregate-clm-us26-005,technology_use,tech-usprep-aggregate,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,clm-us26-005,supports_coding
+record-claim-technology_use-tech-usprep-aggregate-clm-us26-006,technology_use,tech-usprep-aggregate,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,clm-us26-006,supports_coding
 record-claim-technology_use-tech-us26-ads-clm-us26-008,technology_use,tech-us26-ads,us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,clm-us26-008,supports_coding
 record-claim-technology_use-tech-us26-ads-clm-us26-011,technology_use,tech-us26-ads,us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,clm-us26-011,supports_coding
 record-claim-technology_use-tech-us26-ads-clm-us26-014,technology_use,tech-us26-ads,us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,clm-us26-014,supports_coding

data/audit-v03.json

@@ -1,7 +1,183 @@
 {
-  "auditor": "agency-transfer-election-cases-v0.3.0/audit-v03",
+  "auditor": "agency-transfer-election-cases-v0.3.1/audit-v03",
   "cutoff": "2026-08-12",
   "status": "pass",
+  "integrity": {
+    "status": "pass",
+    "expected_table_count": 26,
+    "loaded_table_count": 26,
+    "datapackage_resource_count": 26,
+    "declared_field_count": 382,
+    "declared_foreign_key_count": 29,
+    "error_count": 0,
+    "warning_count": 0
+  },
+  "semantic_audit": {
+    "status": "pass",
+    "audited_table_count": 26,
+    "audited_tables": [
+      "cases",
+      "claims",
+      "sources",
+      "events",
+      "case_sources",
+      "watchlist",
+      "candidates",
+      "official_elections",
+      "official_turnout",
+      "official_results",
+      "official_data_sources",
+      "official_election_metrics",
+      "research_view",
+      "case_catalog",
+      "case_actors",
+      "technology_uses",
+      "content_items",
+      "pathways",
+      "observations",
+      "model_evaluations",
+      "claim_evidence",
+      "analytic_record_claims",
+      "case_elections",
+      "election_sources",
+      "sampling_frame",
+      "coverage_summary"
+    ],
+    "checks_by_table": {
+      "cases": [
+        "classification",
+        "incident denominator",
+        "case-family and election links",
+        "pathway/actor/technology coverage"
+      ],
+      "claims": [
+        "documented enums",
+        "case/source links",
+        "normalized evidence and case-source reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "sources": [
+        "documented enums",
+        "claim/event/case-source referential use"
+      ],
+      "events": [
+        "status/date chronology",
+        "case-scoped claim links",
+        "case-source reciprocity",
+        "analytic join reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "case_sources": [
+        "unique case/source pair",
+        "role and claim-type vocabulary",
+        "claim/event reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "watchlist": [
+        "required monitoring fields",
+        "status/cutoff chronology",
+        "linked election date"
+      ],
+      "candidates": [
+        "sampling counts",
+        "catalog membership and layer"
+      ],
+      "official_elections": [
+        "status chronology",
+        "case/source links",
+        "normalized join reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "official_turnout": [
+        "numeric ranges",
+        "turnout and ballot arithmetic",
+        "source/election chronology"
+      ],
+      "official_results": [
+        "coverage/status",
+        "share/rank arithmetic",
+        "turnout reconciliation"
+      ],
+      "official_data_sources": [
+        "family link",
+        "status and retrieval chronology",
+        "election-source use"
+      ],
+      "official_election_metrics": [
+        "numeric/rate ranges",
+        "rate-component resolution",
+        "rate recomputation",
+        "source/election chronology"
+      ],
+      "research_view": [
+        "unique pathway projection",
+        "case/pathway field parity",
+        "complete pathway coverage"
+      ],
+      "case_catalog": [
+        "documented enums",
+        "layer/record resolution",
+        "incident denominator",
+        "source-link counts"
+      ],
+      "case_actors": [
+        "documented attribution enum",
+        "case-scoped claim links",
+        "case and analytic coverage"
+      ],
+      "technology_uses": [
+        "provenance/version limitations",
+        "case-scoped claim links",
+        "AI-case and analytic coverage"
+      ],
+      "content_items": [
+        "case-scoped claim links",
+        "analytic join reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "pathways": [
+        "documented transfer/assessment enums",
+        "required proposition fields",
+        "case/view/claim coverage"
+      ],
+      "observations": [
+        "numeric intervals and denominators",
+        "causal-status requirements",
+        "case/pathway/claim/source scope"
+      ],
+      "model_evaluations": [
+        "sample/design fields",
+        "source link",
+        "catalog membership and layer"
+      ],
+      "claim_evidence": [
+        "documented enums",
+        "claim/source links",
+        "legacy evidence reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "analytic_record_claims": [
+        "record-type resolution",
+        "case-scoped claims",
+        "legacy analytic-link reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "case_elections": [
+        "unique pair and relation",
+        "case/election links",
+        "legacy link reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "election_sources": [
+        "unique pair and role",
+        "family consistency",
+        "legacy and official-row reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "sampling_frame": [
+        "documented status",
+        "counts/flags/dates",
+        "region coverage"
+      ],
+      "coverage_summary": [
+        "unique region",
+        "case/candidate/model counts"
+      ]
+    },
+    "error_count": 0,
+    "warning_count": 6
+  },
   "summary": {
     "error_count": 0,
     "warning_count": 6,
@@ -9,28 +185,35 @@
       "cases": 10,
       "claims": 96,
       "sources": 70,
+      "events": 33,
+      "case_sources": 67,
+      "watchlist": 12,
       "candidates": 47,
+      "official_elections": 11,
+      "official_turnout": 9,
+      "official_results": 68,
+      "official_data_sources": 31,
+      "official_election_metrics": 58,
+      "research_view": 10,
       "case_catalog": 64,
-      "case_actors": 14,
-      "technology_uses": 9,
+      "case_actors": 16,
+      "technology_uses": 11,
       "content_items": 4,
       "pathways": 10,
-      "observations": 18,
+      "observations": 24,
       "model_evaluations": 7,
       "claim_evidence": 162,
+      "analytic_record_claims": 234,
       "case_elections": 15,
+      "election_sources": 35,
       "sampling_frame": 7,
-      "coverage_summary": 7,
-      "research_view": 10,
-      "official_data_sources": 30,
-      "official_elections": 11,
-      "official_turnout": 9,
-      "official_results": 68
+      "coverage_summary": 7
     }
   },
   "errors": [],
   "warnings": [
     {
+      "layer": "semantic",
       "test": "T08_SAMPLING_FRAME",
       "code": "NEGATIVE_SEARCH_NOT_RECORDED",
       "table": "sampling_frame",
@@ -38,6 +221,7 @@
       "message": "No negative/null search was recorded for this frame; prevalence inference is unsafe"
     },
     {
+      "layer": "semantic",
       "test": "T08_SAMPLING_FRAME",
       "code": "NEGATIVE_SEARCH_NOT_RECORDED",
       "table": "sampling_frame",
@@ -45,6 +229,7 @@
       "message": "No negative/null search was recorded for this frame; prevalence inference is unsafe"
     },
     {
+      "layer": "semantic",
       "test": "T08_SAMPLING_FRAME",
       "code": "NEGATIVE_SEARCH_NOT_RECORDED",
       "table": "sampling_frame",
@@ -52,6 +237,7 @@
       "message": "No negative/null search was recorded for this frame; prevalence inference is unsafe"
     },
     {
+      "layer": "semantic",
       "test": "T08_SAMPLING_FRAME",
       "code": "NEGATIVE_SEARCH_NOT_RECORDED",
       "table": "sampling_frame",
@@ -59,6 +245,7 @@
       "message": "No negative/null search was recorded for this frame; prevalence inference is unsafe"
     },
     {
+      "layer": "semantic",
       "test": "T08_SAMPLING_FRAME",
       "code": "NEGATIVE_SEARCH_NOT_RECORDED",
       "table": "sampling_frame",
@@ -66,6 +253,7 @@
       "message": "No negative/null search was recorded for this frame; prevalence inference is unsafe"
     },
     {
+      "layer": "semantic",
       "test": "T08_SAMPLING_FRAME",
       "code": "NEGATIVE_SEARCH_NOT_RECORDED",
       "table": "sampling_frame",

data/audit.json

@@ -1,7 +1,183 @@
 {
-  "auditor": "agency-transfer-election-cases-v0.3.0/audit-v03",
+  "auditor": "agency-transfer-election-cases-v0.3.1/audit-v03",
   "cutoff": "2026-08-12",
   "status": "pass",
+  "integrity": {
+    "status": "pass",
+    "expected_table_count": 26,
+    "loaded_table_count": 26,
+    "datapackage_resource_count": 26,
+    "declared_field_count": 382,
+    "declared_foreign_key_count": 29,
+    "error_count": 0,
+    "warning_count": 0
+  },
+  "semantic_audit": {
+    "status": "pass",
+    "audited_table_count": 26,
+    "audited_tables": [
+      "cases",
+      "claims",
+      "sources",
+      "events",
+      "case_sources",
+      "watchlist",
+      "candidates",
+      "official_elections",
+      "official_turnout",
+      "official_results",
+      "official_data_sources",
+      "official_election_metrics",
+      "research_view",
+      "case_catalog",
+      "case_actors",
+      "technology_uses",
+      "content_items",
+      "pathways",
+      "observations",
+      "model_evaluations",
+      "claim_evidence",
+      "analytic_record_claims",
+      "case_elections",
+      "election_sources",
+      "sampling_frame",
+      "coverage_summary"
+    ],
+    "checks_by_table": {
+      "cases": [
+        "classification",
+        "incident denominator",
+        "case-family and election links",
+        "pathway/actor/technology coverage"
+      ],
+      "claims": [
+        "documented enums",
+        "case/source links",
+        "normalized evidence and case-source reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "sources": [
+        "documented enums",
+        "claim/event/case-source referential use"
+      ],
+      "events": [
+        "status/date chronology",
+        "case-scoped claim links",
+        "case-source reciprocity",
+        "analytic join reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "case_sources": [
+        "unique case/source pair",
+        "role and claim-type vocabulary",
+        "claim/event reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "watchlist": [
+        "required monitoring fields",
+        "status/cutoff chronology",
+        "linked election date"
+      ],
+      "candidates": [
+        "sampling counts",
+        "catalog membership and layer"
+      ],
+      "official_elections": [
+        "status chronology",
+        "case/source links",
+        "normalized join reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "official_turnout": [
+        "numeric ranges",
+        "turnout and ballot arithmetic",
+        "source/election chronology"
+      ],
+      "official_results": [
+        "coverage/status",
+        "share/rank arithmetic",
+        "turnout reconciliation"
+      ],
+      "official_data_sources": [
+        "family link",
+        "status and retrieval chronology",
+        "election-source use"
+      ],
+      "official_election_metrics": [
+        "numeric/rate ranges",
+        "rate-component resolution",
+        "rate recomputation",
+        "source/election chronology"
+      ],
+      "research_view": [
+        "unique pathway projection",
+        "case/pathway field parity",
+        "complete pathway coverage"
+      ],
+      "case_catalog": [
+        "documented enums",
+        "layer/record resolution",
+        "incident denominator",
+        "source-link counts"
+      ],
+      "case_actors": [
+        "documented attribution enum",
+        "case-scoped claim links",
+        "case and analytic coverage"
+      ],
+      "technology_uses": [
+        "provenance/version limitations",
+        "case-scoped claim links",
+        "AI-case and analytic coverage"
+      ],
+      "content_items": [
+        "case-scoped claim links",
+        "analytic join reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "pathways": [
+        "documented transfer/assessment enums",
+        "required proposition fields",
+        "case/view/claim coverage"
+      ],
+      "observations": [
+        "numeric intervals and denominators",
+        "causal-status requirements",
+        "case/pathway/claim/source scope"
+      ],
+      "model_evaluations": [
+        "sample/design fields",
+        "source link",
+        "catalog membership and layer"
+      ],
+      "claim_evidence": [
+        "documented enums",
+        "claim/source links",
+        "legacy evidence reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "analytic_record_claims": [
+        "record-type resolution",
+        "case-scoped claims",
+        "legacy analytic-link reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "case_elections": [
+        "unique pair and relation",
+        "case/election links",
+        "legacy link reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "election_sources": [
+        "unique pair and role",
+        "family consistency",
+        "legacy and official-row reciprocity"
+      ],
+      "sampling_frame": [
+        "documented status",
+        "counts/flags/dates",
+        "region coverage"
+      ],
+      "coverage_summary": [
+        "unique region",
+        "case/candidate/model counts"
+      ]
+    },
+    "error_count": 0,
+    "warning_count": 6
+  },
   "summary": {
     "error_count": 0,
     "warning_count": 6,
@@ -9,28 +185,35 @@
       "cases": 10,
       "claims": 96,
       "sources": 70,
+      "events": 33,
+      "case_sources": 67,
+      "watchlist": 12,
       "candidates": 47,
+      "official_elections": 11,
+      "official_turnout": 9,
+      "official_results": 68,
+      "official_data_sources": 31,
+      "official_election_metrics": 58,
+      "research_view": 10,
       "case_catalog": 64,
-      "case_actors": 14,
-      "technology_uses": 9,
+      "case_actors": 16,
+      "technology_uses": 11,
       "content_items": 4,
       "pathways": 10,
-      "observations": 18,
+      "observations": 24,
       "model_evaluations": 7,
       "claim_evidence": 162,
+      "analytic_record_claims": 234,
       "case_elections": 15,
+      "election_sources": 35,
       "sampling_frame": 7,
-      "coverage_summary": 7,
-      "research_view": 10,
-      "official_data_sources": 30,
-      "official_elections": 11,
-      "official_turnout": 9,
-      "official_results": 68
+      "coverage_summary": 7
     }
   },
   "errors": [],
   "warnings": [
     {
+      "layer": "semantic",
       "test": "T08_SAMPLING_FRAME",
       "code": "NEGATIVE_SEARCH_NOT_RECORDED",
       "table": "sampling_frame",
@@ -38,6 +221,7 @@
       "message": "No negative/null search was recorded for this frame; prevalence inference is unsafe"
     },
     {
+      "layer": "semantic",
       "test": "T08_SAMPLING_FRAME",
       "code": "NEGATIVE_SEARCH_NOT_RECORDED",
       "table": "sampling_frame",
@@ -45,6 +229,7 @@
       "message": "No negative/null search was recorded for this frame; prevalence inference is unsafe"
     },
     {
+      "layer": "semantic",
       "test": "T08_SAMPLING_FRAME",
       "code": "NEGATIVE_SEARCH_NOT_RECORDED",
       "table": "sampling_frame",
@@ -52,6 +237,7 @@
       "message": "No negative/null search was recorded for this frame; prevalence inference is unsafe"
     },
     {
+      "layer": "semantic",
       "test": "T08_SAMPLING_FRAME",
       "code": "NEGATIVE_SEARCH_NOT_RECORDED",
       "table": "sampling_frame",
@@ -59,6 +245,7 @@
       "message": "No negative/null search was recorded for this frame; prevalence inference is unsafe"
     },
     {
+      "layer": "semantic",
       "test": "T08_SAMPLING_FRAME",
       "code": "NEGATIVE_SEARCH_NOT_RECORDED",
       "table": "sampling_frame",
@@ -66,6 +253,7 @@
       "message": "No negative/null search was recorded for this frame; prevalence inference is unsafe"
     },
     {
+      "layer": "semantic",
       "test": "T08_SAMPLING_FRAME",
       "code": "NEGATIVE_SEARCH_NOT_RECORDED",
       "table": "sampling_frame",

data/case_actors.csv

@@ -8,8 +8,10 @@ act-md25-infoleaders,md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,InfoLeaders curators a
 act-nh-kramer,us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,Steve Kramer,commissioner_and_operator,political_consultant,admitted,"content commission, targeting and call operation",clm-nh-001|clm-nh-002|clm-nh-003|clm-nh-012,Acquitted of state criminal charges; separate federal civil and FCC outcomes remain.
 act-nh-telecom,us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,Voice Broadcasting and Lingo Telecom,delivery_infrastructure,telecom_provider,adjudicated,"call initiation, attestation and delivery",clm-nh-004|clm-nh-005|clm-nh-007,Different providers controlled different parts of the chain.
 act-br-prep-tse,br-2026-election-preparedness,Tribunal Superior Eleitoral,regulator_and_responder,election_authority,adjudicated,"rules, monitoring and enforcement",clm-br-002|clm-br-003|clm-br-004|clm-br-005|clm-br-006|clm-br-007,"Preparedness actor, not manipulator."
+act-brprep-aggregate,br-2026-election-preparedness,"Potential campaigns, AI providers, platforms and unidentified influence actors",prospective_actor_set,mixed_unknown,unknown,"potential production, ranking, distribution and compliance",clm-br-002|clm-br-003|clm-br-004|clm-br-005,Aggregate preparedness category defined by the regulatory scope; it does not identify a specific 2026 operator or deployment.
 act-br-avatar-campaign,br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,Flávio Bolsonaro campaign or allied producer,deployer_and_beneficiary,campaign,credibly_reported,synthetic persona and campaign distribution,clm-br-010|clm-br-011|clm-br-020,Exact producer and Jair Bolsonaro authorisation remain unresolved.
+act-usprep-aggregate,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,"Potential campaigns, political committees, foreign influence actors, platforms, telecom and AI providers",prospective_actor_set,mixed_unknown,unknown,"potential production, ranking, distribution and telecom delivery",clm-us26-003|clm-us26-004|clm-us26-005,Aggregate preparedness category; prior-cycle evidence and governance gaps do not establish a specific new 2026 operation.
 act-us26-nrsc,us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,National Republican Senatorial Committee,sponsor_and_deployer,political_committee,admitted,synthetic opponent performance and distribution,clm-us26-008|clm-us26-009|clm-us26-014|clm-us26-016,Other ads in the aggregate case have different sponsors.
 act-usca11-wiener,us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,Scott Wiener for Congress,commissioner_deployer_and_data_controller,campaign,admitted,"deployment, configurable framing, interface, promotion and policy-permitted log access",clm-usca11-001|clm-usca11-002|clm-usca11-004|clm-usca11-007|clm-usca11-011,"Technical constructor, exact prompt, retrieval sources, guardrails and actual retention/use of logs were not publicly established."
 act-usca11-anthropic,us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,Anthropic,model_provider,ai_provider,credibly_reported,base-model capability,clm-usca11-003,"No evidence Anthropic designed, approved, financed, or operated this campaign deployment."
-act-usca11-chan,us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,Connie Chan,represented_target,candidate,established,first-person identity and political record simulated,clm-usca11-004|clm-usca11-005|clm-usca11-011,The site disclosed that it was not affiliated with or endorsed by Chan.
+act-usca11-chan,us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,Connie Chan,represented_target,candidate,credibly_reported,first-person identity and political record simulated,clm-usca11-004|clm-usca11-005|clm-usca11-011,The site disclosed that it was not affiliated with or endorsed by Chan.

data/case_catalog.csv

@@ -9,57 +9,57 @@ br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,claim_coded_core,observed_incident,Brazil 2026 Bolso
 us-2026-midterms-preparedness,claim_coded_core,preparedness_file,United States 2026 midterm election: fragmented AI governance and preparedness,United States,North America,2026 United States midterm election,2026-11-03,ongoing,preparedness_not_incident,mixed,confirmed,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,false,included_claim_coded,9,Generative AI amplified existing risks more often than creating wholly new ones in prior cycles; observed synthetic ads do not establish electoral effects.,2026-08-11
 us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,claim_coded_core,observed_campaign_set,United States 2026 campaign-produced synthetic candidate ads,United States,North America,2026 United States midterm campaigns,2026-11-03,ongoing,mixed_documented_manipulation,core_generation,confirmed,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,true,included_claim_coded,6,"Some ads reproduce genuine prior words, contain disclosures, or are framed as satire; these features complicate classification as deception.",2026-08-11
 us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,claim_coded_core,observed_incident,California 11th District: campaign-controlled Connie Chan parody chatbot,United States,North America,2026 California 11th congressional district general election,2026-11-03,ongoing,transparent_contested_use,core_generation,confirmed,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,true,included_claim_coded,4,"The site openly described itself as AI and parody, disclosed that it was unaffiliated with Chan and paid for by Wiener, and did not purport to be Chan's authentic service. The campaign said adversarial prompts drove the controversial exchanges and that safeguards were tightened.",2026-08-12
-cand-usa-2016-ira-social-influence,screening_register,candidate_lead,Internet Research Agency social influence operation,United States,North America,2016 presidential election,2016-11-08,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_applicable,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,Platform reach figures cover different denominators and time windows; official investigations did not causally estimate votes or turnout changed.,2026-08-11
-cand-usa-2016-cambridge-analytica,screening_register,candidate_lead,Cambridge Analytica voter profiling and deceptive Facebook data collection,United States,North America,2016 presidential election,2016-11-08,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,supporting_tool,not_applicable,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,"FTC findings establish collection and profiling, not that psychographic targeting outperformed ordinary targeting or changed the election.",2026-08-11
-cand-usa-2020-iran-proud-boys-emails,screening_register,candidate_lead,Iran-attributed Proud Boys voter-threat emails,United States,North America,2020 presidential election,2020-11-03,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,supporting_tool,not_established,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,State attribution is stronger than unadjudicated charges against named individuals; no public-opinion or election effect was assessed.,2026-08-11
-cand-usa-2024-russia-doppelganger,screening_register,candidate_lead,Russia-attributed Doppelganger cloned-media and targeted influence operation,United States,North America,2024 presidential election,2024-11-05,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,supporting_tool,confirmed_for_some_assets,partly_confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,The seizure affidavit contains allegations; individual content views are not operation-wide unique reach.,2026-08-11
-cand-usa-2024-iran-hack-and-leak,screening_register,candidate_lead,Iran-attributed Trump campaign hack-and-leak operation,United States,North America,2024 presidential election,2024-11-05,reserve_election_adjacent,not_yet_claim_coded,none_established,not_applicable,confirmed,false,reserve_election_adjacent,2,Major nonresponse and nonpublication are counterevidence to a successful leak-amplification claim.,2026-08-11
-cand-bra-2018-whatsapp-mass-messaging,screening_register,candidate_lead,Brazil 2018 WhatsApp mass-messaging ecosystem,Brazil,South America,2018 presidential election,2018-10-28,promote_with_adjudication_caveat,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_applicable,partly_confirmed,false,promote_with_adjudication_caveat,2,"TSE rejected the cases because content, reach, repercussion, candidate link, financing, and gravity were not adequately proved.",2026-08-11
-cand-bra-2022-ambassadors-meeting,screening_register,candidate_lead,Bolsonaro ambassadors meeting attacking Brazil's voting system,Brazil,South America,2022 general election,2022-10-30,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_applicable,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,"A judicial finding of grave abuse is not a causal estimate of votes, turnout, or result changed.",2026-08-11
-cand-bra-2022-election-denial-network,screening_register,candidate_lead,Brazil 2022 cross-platform election-denial messaging network,Brazil,South America,2022 general election and post-election mobilisation,2022-10-30,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_material,confirmed_in_sampled_traces,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,Content volume is not people reached; survey authors did not claim causation; the entire network lacked a single established command actor.,2026-08-11
-cand-mex-2024-genai-cluster,screening_register,candidate_lead,Mexico 2024 fact-checked generative-AI election-content cluster,Mexico,North America,2024 general election,2024-06-02,boundary_aggregate_disaggregate_first,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed_for_documented_examples,confirmed_for_examples,false,boundary_aggregate_disaggregate_first,2,"The source corpus is 101 fact-check posts, not necessarily 101 unique incidents or an electorate-wide prevalence estimate.",2026-08-11
-cand-col-2022-coordinated-facebook-pages,screening_register,candidate_lead,Colombia 2022 coordinated negative-ad Facebook pages,Colombia,South America,2022 presidential election,2022-06-19,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_established,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,"Ad spend and 538 paid items are not unique reach or persuasion, and investigators could not establish the ultimate operator or funder.",2026-08-11
-cand-arg-2023-campaign-genai,screening_register,candidate_lead,Argentina 2023 official-campaign generative-AI arms race,Argentina,South America,2023 presidential runoff,2023-11-19,boundary_comparison,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,boundary_comparison,2,Much content was labelled or visibly fabricated and contemporary assessments found relatively minor information-space impact.,2026-08-11
-cand-arg-2025-false-withdrawal-deepfakes,screening_register,candidate_lead,Argentina 2025 Buenos Aires City false-withdrawal and endorsement deepfakes,Argentina,South America,2025 Buenos Aires City legislative election,2025-05-18,reserve_needs_second_source,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,reserve_needs_second_source,1,Narrowed to the Buenos Aires City case; it still needs an independent second source. National October complaints belong in a separate future candidate and are not merged here.,2026-08-11
-cand-ind-2024-bollywood-deepfakes,screening_register,candidate_lead,India 2024 unauthorised Bollywood celebrity endorsement deepfakes,India,South Asia,2024 general election,2024-06-01,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed_for_focal_assets,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,"More than 500,000 views establish exposure, not belief or persuasion; amplification by a Congress spokesperson does not prove party commissioning, and post-election work found no deepfake doomsday.",2026-08-11
-cand-ind-2024-authorised-ai-calls,screening_register,candidate_lead,India 2024 candidate-authorised AI voice calls and personalised outreach,India,South Asia,2024 general election,2024-06-01,boundary_comparison,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation|delivery_personalisation,confirmed,confirmed,false,boundary_comparison,2,"The reported 50 million-plus calls and 25 million personalised calls are unaudited vendor figures, may overlap, and do not establish listening, persuasion, turnout, or vote effects.",2026-08-11
-cand-twn-2024-storm1376-gou-audio,screening_register,candidate_lead,Taiwan 2024 Storm-1376 false Terry Gou endorsement operation,Taiwan,East Asia,2024 presidential and legislative elections,2024-01-13,promote_with_attribution_caveat,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation|supporting_tool,likely_for_focal_audio|confirmed_for_actor_assets,confirmed,false,promote_with_attribution_caveat,4,Microsoft's CCP linkage is a threat-intelligence attribution rather than an adjudicated state-command finding; YouTube removed the focal audio before significant reach and no vote effect is established.,2026-08-11
-cand-pak-2024-pti-authorised-clones,screening_register,candidate_lead,Pakistan 2024 PTI-authorised synthetic Imran Khan campaign speeches,Pakistan,South Asia,2024 general election,2024-02-08,boundary_comparison,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,boundary_comparison,5,"More than 1.4 million YouTube views document exposure, not persuasion; the success of PTI-backed independents cannot be causally attributed to synthetic speeches.",2026-08-11
-cand-pak-2024-fake-boycott-clones,screening_register,candidate_lead,Pakistan 2024 fake PTI election-boycott voice clones,Pakistan,South Asia,2024 general election,2024-02-08,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed_for_documented_examples,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,3,"Fact-checks establish the fabrication, but the operator, commissioning chain, unique reach, belief, participation response, and electoral effect are unknown.",2026-08-11
-cand-idn-2024-official-synthetic-campaigning,screening_register,candidate_lead,Indonesia 2024 official synthetic campaigning and Suharto resurrection,Indonesia,Southeast Asia,2024 presidential and legislative elections,2024-02-14,boundary_comparison,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation|campaign_personalisation,confirmed,confirmed,false,boundary_comparison,4,"The 4.7 million Suharto-view figure is provisional secondary reporting, while 19 billion #Prabowo TikTok views cover all hashtag content rather than AI assets; neither measures persuasion or vote causation.",2026-08-11
-cand-bgd-2024-progovernment-ai-disinformation,screening_register,candidate_lead,Bangladesh 2024 pro-government AI pseudo-news and opposition deepfakes,Bangladesh,South Asia,2024 parliamentary election,2024-01-07,promote_with_attribution_caveat,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed_for_documented_examples,confirmed,false,promote_with_attribution_caveat,3,"Pro-government promotion does not prove Awami League or government commissioning; focal reach and voter effects are unknown, and the opposition boycott and noncompetitive environment preclude election-result inference.",2026-08-11
-cand-kor-2024-deepfake-enforcement-set,screening_register,candidate_lead,South Korea 2024 election deepfake enforcement set,South Korea,East Asia,2024 National Assembly election,2024-04-10,boundary_aggregate_disaggregate_first,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation_for_counted_items,confirmed_at_aggregate_level,officially_reported_aggregate,false,boundary_aggregate_disaggregate_first,3,"The 129 detected items are not 129 unique operations, do not establish deception or views, and should be disaggregated before promotion to incident-level cases.",2026-08-11
-cand-zaf-2024-trump-mk-deepfake,screening_register,candidate_lead,South Africa 2024 false Trump endorsement of MK,South Africa,Southern Africa,2024 general election,2024-05-29,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed_for_focal_asset,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,5,"The creator and focal reach are unknown; replies are not a belief survey, and post-election research found GenAI and deepfake use was limited overall.",2026-08-11
-cand-nga-2023-atiku-spliced-audio,screening_register,candidate_lead,Nigeria 2023 spliced Atiku election-rigging audio,Nigeria,West Africa,2023 presidential election,2023-02-25,boundary_synthetic_non_genai,not_yet_claim_coded,not_required_for_focal_asset|material_distribution,not_established|likely_conventional_edit,confirmed,false,boundary_synthetic_non_genai,4,"Splice analysis supports conventional compositing, not generative voice synthesis; thousands of listens and platform persistence do not establish belief, turnout, votes, or the responsible actor.",2026-08-11
-cand-gha-2024-llm-bot-network,screening_register,candidate_lead,Ghana 2024 likely LLM-assisted pro-NPP account network,Ghana,West Africa,2024 general election,2024-12-07,promote_with_detection_caveat,not_yet_claim_coded,core_content_generation|material_amplification,likely_by_detector_and_behavioural_signals,confirmed_as_research_sample,false,promote_with_detection_caveat,2,"AI-text detection and coordination indicators do not prove ChatGPT use, automation, common control, NPP sponsorship, external reach, or electoral effect; most measured engagement was internal.",2026-08-11
-cand-ken-2022-platform-amplification,screening_register,candidate_lead,"Kenya 2022 recommender amplification, bots, and influence-for-hire",Kenya,East Africa,2022 general election,2022-08-09,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_material|conventional_manipulation,confirmed_in_sampled_traces,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,"The purposive sample's four million views are not electorate-wide prevalence or unique users; recommender lift lacks internal logs, and no causal study links the ecosystem to votes or the result.",2026-08-11
-cand-sk-2023-parl-simecka-todova-audio,screening_register,candidate_lead,Synthetic Simecka and Todova vote-rigging audio,Slovakia,Europe,2023 parliamentary election,2023-09-30,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,Amplifiers are known but the creator and state sponsor are not; SMER's victory is not evidence that the audio changed votes.,2026-08-11
-cand-fr-2017-pres-macronleaks,screening_register,candidate_lead,MacronLeaks hack-and-leak and automated amplification,France,Europe,2017 presidential election,2017-05-07,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_applicable,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,France's later GRU attribution is stronger at the cyber-campaign level than attribution of every forged item and amplifier; no individual causal vote estimate exists.,2026-08-11
-cand-fr-2024-eu-lepen-nieces,screening_register,candidate_lead,Fake Le Pen family personas using face swaps and stolen influencer videos,France,Europe,2024 European Parliament election,2024-06-09,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,"The operator is unknown, party involvement was denied and follower/view figures do not establish voter persuasion.",2026-08-11
-cand-fr-2024-leg-macron-bonus-copycop,screening_register,candidate_lead,CopyCop fake Macron voting-bonus site and LLM content laundering,France,Europe,2024 snap legislative election,2024-06-30,promote_with_reach_caveat,not_yet_claim_coded,supporting_tool,confirmed,confirmed,false,promote_with_reach_caveat,3,"The corpus measures production, not audience; Russia-link is a strong research inference rather than final state attribution.",2026-08-11
-cand-uk-2024-ge-x-botlike-network,screening_register,candidate_lead,High-volume bot-like X accounts amplifying Reform and pro-Kremlin themes,United Kingdom,Europe,2024 general election,2024-07-04,promote_with_platform_corroboration,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_established,partly_confirmed,false,promote_with_platform_corroboration,3,"Bot-like is a behavioral classification, not X-confirmed automation; 150 million displays are non-unique modeled impressions and no party link was shown.",2026-08-11
-cand-uk-2024-ge-nigeria-facebook-network,screening_register,candidate_lead,Nigeria-administered Facebook network using AI anti-immigration images,United Kingdom,Europe,2024 general election,2024-07-04,promote_with_reach_caveat,not_yet_claim_coded,mixed,confirmed,confirmed,false,promote_with_reach_caveat,3,Most followers were outside the UK and likely fake engagement; pro-Kremlin content does not establish Russian control and no Reform involvement was shown.,2026-08-11
-cand-de-2025-bund-storm1516-rfbi,screening_register,candidate_lead,Storm-1516 and R-FBI synthetic witness and fake-news-site smears,Germany,Europe,2025 Bundestag election,2025-02-23,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,mixed,confirmed,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,"German attribution is strong at Storm-1516 campaign level, while exact responsibility for every R-FBI asset and domestic amplifier must stay scoped; no effect was measured.",2026-08-11
-cand-hu-2026-parl-proorban-tiktok-cio,screening_register,candidate_lead,Pro-Orban TikTok covert influence operation using generative-AI videos,Hungary,Europe,2026 parliamentary election,2026-04-12,promote_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,TikTok confirmed covert coordination but did not publicly identify the sponsor; the opposition landslide does not quantify or disprove attitudinal effects.,2026-08-11
-cand-sk-2024-pres-korcok-stb-hoax,screening_register,candidate_lead,Fabricated StB documents and fake-account amplification against Korcok,Slovakia,Europe,2024 presidential election,2024-04-06,reserve_needs_platform_source,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_established,confirmed,false,reserve_needs_platform_source,1,Needs a platform or election-authority source and method review for fake-account classification; no foreign-state direction or vote effect established.,2026-08-11
-cand-fr-2024-leg-zelenska-bugatti,screening_register,candidate_lead,Synthetic Bugatti dealership witness and fake Zelenska invoice,France,Europe,2024 snap legislative election,2024-07-07,reserve_election_targeting_unproven,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,probable,confirmed,false,reserve_election_targeting_unproven,3,Direct French-election targeting is unproven and much of the eighteen-million-view reach may have been international; keep outside the core tier.,2026-08-11
-cand-de-2025-bund-fake-ballots,screening_register,candidate_lead,Fabricated Leipzig and Hamburg ballot-suppression evidence,Germany,Europe,2025 Bundestag election,2025-02-23,reserve_needs_reach_and_attribution,not_yet_claim_coded,supporting_tool,not_established,confirmed,false,reserve_needs_reach_and_attribution,2,Reach was limited or unreported and artifact-specific command attribution was not adjudicated; add platform metrics before promotion.,2026-08-11
-cand-hu-2026-parl-fidesz-execution-ad,screening_register,candidate_lead,Fidesz generative-AI execution-scene campaign advertisement,Hungary,Europe,2026 parliamentary election,2026-04-12,boundary_official_campaign_content,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,boundary_official_campaign_content,2,"Reach, spend and ad-level effect are unresolved; broader survey belief in a war narrative cannot be attributed to this video.",2026-08-11
-cand-col-2026-pres-ai-media-family,screening_register,candidate_lead,Colombia 2026 presidential election AI-media family,Colombia,South America,2026 Colombian presidential election,2026-05-31,disaggregate_before_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,mixed_generation_and_amplification,established_at_observer_aggregate,confirmed_at_aggregate_level,false,disaggregate_before_claim_coding,2,"Aggregate observer reporting cannot establish a common operator, denominator, reach, or effect for each asset.",2026-08-12
-cand-nld-2025-ge-chatbot-voting-advice,screening_register,candidate_lead,Netherlands 2025 chatbot voting-advice audit,Netherlands,Europe,2025 Dutch general election,2025-10-29,model_evaluation_not_incident,not_yet_claim_coded,information_intermediary,confirmed,confirmed_evaluation,false,model_evaluation_not_incident,2,"Evaluation outputs are not population exposure, real voter use, persuasion, or electoral effects.",2026-08-12
-cand-can-2025-fed-deepfake-prevalence,screening_register,candidate_lead,Canada 2025 deepfake prevalence and low-harm exposure sample,Canada,North America,2025 Canadian federal election,2025-04-28,observational_null_comparator,not_yet_claim_coded,measurement_and_observed_content,detector_classified_in_sample,confirmed_research_sample,false,observational_null_comparator,2,"Preprint, detector error, platform sampling and view denominators limit prevalence generalisation; null is study-scoped.",2026-08-12
-cand-jpn-2024-tokyo-anno-ai-avatar,screening_register,candidate_lead,Tokyo 2024 authorised Takahiro Anno AI avatar,Japan,East Asia,2024 Tokyo gubernatorial election,2024-07-07,positive_boundary_comparator,not_yet_claim_coded,candidate_access_substitution,confirmed,confirmed,false,positive_boundary_comparator,2,Campaign-reported response counts and vote totals do not identify votes caused by the avatar.,2026-08-12
-cand-aus-2025-fed-pravda-chatbot-poisoning,screening_register,candidate_lead,Australia 2025 Pravda network and chatbot knowledge poisoning,Australia,Oceania,2025 Australian federal election,2025-05-03,promote_after_claim_coding_with_attribution_caveat,not_yet_claim_coded,content_scale_and_information_intermediary,confirmed_for_audit_outputs,confirmed_network_and_audit,false,promote_after_claim_coding_with_attribution_caveat,3,"A chatbot-audit response rate is not voter exposure; intent and state attribution are investigative, not adjudicated.",2026-08-12
-cand-gbr-nir-2022-cara-hunter-sexual-deepfake,screening_register,candidate_lead,Northern Ireland 2022 Cara Hunter sexualised synthetic-video attack,United Kingdom,Europe,2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election,2022-05-05,promote_with_technical_provenance_caveat,not_yet_claim_coded,alleged_or_probable_content_generation,not_forensically_public,victim_and_parliamentary_record_confirmed,false,promote_with_technical_provenance_caveat,3,"Origin, exact generation method, unique reach and vote effect remain unknown; do not redistribute the media.",2026-08-12
-cand-ecu-2025-pres-ai-disinformation-cluster,screening_register,candidate_lead,Ecuador 2025 AI-assisted viral disinformation cluster,Ecuador,South America,2025 Ecuadorian presidential election runoff,2025-04-13,reserve_disaggregate_observer_sample,not_yet_claim_coded,content_generation_in_sample,observer_reported_sample,confirmed_at_aggregate_level,false,reserve_disaggregate_observer_sample,1,Aggregate sample cannot identify a common actor or causal effect; sampling frame and item coding must be preserved.,2026-08-12
-cand-usa-2024-grok-ballot-deadline-error,screening_register,candidate_lead,Grok ballot-deadline misinformation and state correction request,United States,North America,2024 United States general election,2024-11-05,promote_as_deployed_model_failure_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,interactive_election_information_intermediary,confirmed_deployed_closed_model,confirmed,false,promote_as_deployed_model_failure_after_claim_coding,3,"The official statement that screenshots reached millions is not a deduplicated user or voter-exposure measure; exact Grok version, prompt distribution and behavioural effects are unknown.",2026-08-12
-cand-usa-2024-storm2035-openai-low-engagement,screening_register,candidate_lead,Storm-2035 use of ChatGPT with low observed audience engagement,United States,North America,2024 United States general election,2024-11-05,promote_as_provider_telemetry_negative_case_after_claim_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,supporting_content_generation,provider_confirmed_use,confirmed_by_provider_telemetry,false,promote_as_provider_telemetry_negative_case_after_claim_coding,1,Provider telemetry is interested primary evidence and cannot observe every off-platform exposure; the candidate needs independent corroboration before core promotion.,2026-08-12
-cand-bra-2024-municipal-ai-observatory,screening_register,candidate_lead,Brazil 2024 municipal-election GenAI observatory sample,Brazil,South America,2024 Brazilian municipal elections,2024-10-06,promote_as_observational_null_and_boundary_sample,not_yet_claim_coded,mixed_generation_and_monitoring_context,confirmed_in_bounded_observations,confirmed_within_search_scope,false,promote_as_observational_null_and_boundary_sample,2,Civil-society monitoring is not a census and cannot support the claim that AI had no impact; artifact-level coding is required for specific harms.,2026-08-12
-cand-sgp-2025-ge-ai-video-sample,screening_register,candidate_lead,Singapore 2025 election AI-video sample and no-breach review outcome,Singapore,Southeast Asia,2025 Singapore general election,2025-05-03,promote_as_observational_sample_after_item_coding,not_yet_claim_coded,content_generation_in_sample,confirmed_for_sampled_items,confirmed_within_keyword_monitoring_window,false,promote_as_observational_sample_after_item_coding,3,"Do not call all 73 videos deepfakes or violations: 11 visually manipulated prospective candidates, only four were clearly labelled, and the official review found no breach in the reviewed set.",2026-08-12
-eval-us-aidp-english-2024,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,AI Democracy Projects English election-query pilot,United States,North America,2024 U.S. election information,January 2024,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,"Point-in-time domain safety test; not representative of users, all questions, consumer interfaces, future performance, or election effects.",2026-08-12
-eval-us-aidp-spanish-2024,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,AI Democracy Projects bilingual Arizona election-query evaluation,United States,North America,Arizona voter information,2024,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,API responses may differ from consumer chatbots; one state and selected questions; no user or electoral-effect measurement.,2026-08-12
-eval-hu-voting-advice-2026,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,Hungary 2026 general-purpose AI voting-advice evaluation,Hungary,Europe,2026 Hungarian parliamentary election,23-24 March 2026,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,Structured audit during a live campaign; not a sample of real users and not evidence that outputs affected the decisive result.,2026-08-12
-eval-us-brennan-2026,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,Brennan Center election-disinformation capability and safeguard evaluation,United States,North America,2026 U.S. midterm election-disinformation scenarios,February-August 2026,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,"Capability and safeguard evidence under researcher tests; not deployment prevalence, audience exposure, or electoral effect. Harmful prompts are intentionally withheld.",2026-08-12
-eval-global-voter-dialogue-rct-2025,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,Persuading voters using human-artificial intelligence dialogues,United States|Canada|Poland,Cross-national,"2024 U.S., 2025 Canadian and 2025 Polish national elections",2024-2025 election periods,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,"Causal for the experimental conversations and measured self-reports; not observed campaign deployment, actual ballots, aggregate election outcomes, durable effects, or covert manipulation.",2026-08-12
-eval-uk-chatbot-voting-advice-rct-2025,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,Chatbot Voting Advice Applications inform but seldom sway young unaligned voters,United Kingdom,Europe,experimental voting-advice context,2025,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,Causal within the experimental samples and interfaces; not a population prevalence estimate or proof that conversational political AI never persuades.,2026-08-12
-eval-eu-mistral-voting-assistant-2024,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,Mistral and Mixtral as European Parliament voting assistants,European Union,Europe,2024 European Parliament election,2024,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,"Point-in-time model audit; not public deployment, user behavior or election effect.",2026-08-12
+cand-usa-2016-ira-social-influence,screening_register,candidate_lead,Internet Research Agency social influence operation,United States,North America,2016 presidential election,2016-11-08,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_applicable,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,Platform reach figures cover different denominators and time windows; official investigations did not causally estimate votes or turnout changed.,2026-08-11
+cand-usa-2016-cambridge-analytica,screening_register,candidate_lead,Cambridge Analytica voter profiling and deceptive Facebook data collection,United States,North America,2016 presidential election,2016-11-08,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,supporting_tool,not_applicable,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,"FTC findings establish collection and profiling, not that psychographic targeting outperformed ordinary targeting or changed the election.",2026-08-11
+cand-usa-2020-iran-proud-boys-emails,screening_register,candidate_lead,Iran-attributed Proud Boys voter-threat emails,United States,North America,2020 presidential election,2020-11-03,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,supporting_tool,not_established,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,State attribution is stronger than unadjudicated charges against named individuals; no public-opinion or election effect was assessed.,2026-08-11
+cand-usa-2024-russia-doppelganger,screening_register,candidate_lead,Russia-attributed Doppelganger cloned-media and targeted influence operation,United States,North America,2024 presidential election,2024-11-05,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,supporting_tool,confirmed_for_some_assets,partly_confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,The seizure affidavit contains allegations; individual content views are not operation-wide unique reach.,2026-08-11
+cand-usa-2024-iran-hack-and-leak,screening_register,candidate_lead,Iran-attributed Trump campaign hack-and-leak operation,United States,North America,2024 presidential election,2024-11-05,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,none_established,not_applicable,confirmed,false,reserve_election_adjacent,2,Major nonresponse and nonpublication are counterevidence to a successful leak-amplification claim.,2026-08-11
+cand-bra-2018-whatsapp-mass-messaging,screening_register,candidate_lead,Brazil 2018 WhatsApp mass-messaging ecosystem,Brazil,South America,2018 presidential election,2018-10-28,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_applicable,partly_confirmed,false,promote_with_adjudication_caveat,2,"TSE rejected the cases because content, reach, repercussion, candidate link, financing, and gravity were not adequately proved.",2026-08-11
+cand-bra-2022-ambassadors-meeting,screening_register,candidate_lead,Bolsonaro ambassadors meeting attacking Brazil's voting system,Brazil,South America,2022 general election,2022-10-30,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_applicable,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,"A judicial finding of grave abuse is not a causal estimate of votes, turnout, or result changed.",2026-08-11
+cand-bra-2022-election-denial-network,screening_register,candidate_lead,Brazil 2022 cross-platform election-denial messaging network,Brazil,South America,2022 general election and post-election mobilisation,2022-10-30,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_material,confirmed_in_sampled_traces,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,Content volume is not people reached; survey authors did not claim causation; the entire network lacked a single established command actor.,2026-08-11
+cand-mex-2024-genai-cluster,screening_register,candidate_lead,Mexico 2024 fact-checked generative-AI election-content cluster,Mexico,North America,2024 general election,2024-06-02,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed_for_documented_examples,confirmed_for_examples,false,boundary_aggregate_disaggregate_first,2,"The source corpus is 101 fact-check posts, not necessarily 101 unique incidents or an electorate-wide prevalence estimate.",2026-08-11
+cand-col-2022-coordinated-facebook-pages,screening_register,candidate_lead,Colombia 2022 coordinated negative-ad Facebook pages,Colombia,South America,2022 presidential election,2022-06-19,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_established,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,2,"Ad spend and 538 paid items are not unique reach or persuasion, and investigators could not establish the ultimate operator or funder.",2026-08-11
+cand-arg-2023-campaign-genai,screening_register,candidate_lead,Argentina 2023 official-campaign generative-AI arms race,Argentina,South America,2023 presidential runoff,2023-11-19,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,boundary_comparison,2,Much content was labelled or visibly fabricated and contemporary assessments found relatively minor information-space impact.,2026-08-11
+cand-arg-2025-false-withdrawal-deepfakes,screening_register,candidate_lead,Argentina 2025 Buenos Aires City false-withdrawal and endorsement deepfakes,Argentina,South America,2025 Buenos Aires City legislative election,2025-05-18,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,reserve_needs_second_source,1,Narrowed to the Buenos Aires City case; it still needs an independent second source. National October complaints belong in a separate future candidate and are not merged here.,2026-08-11
+cand-ind-2024-bollywood-deepfakes,screening_register,candidate_lead,India 2024 unauthorised Bollywood celebrity endorsement deepfakes,India,South Asia,2024 general election,2024-06-01,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed_for_focal_assets,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,"More than 500,000 views establish exposure, not belief or persuasion; amplification by a Congress spokesperson does not prove party commissioning, and post-election work found no deepfake doomsday.",2026-08-11
+cand-ind-2024-authorised-ai-calls,screening_register,candidate_lead,India 2024 candidate-authorised AI voice calls and personalised outreach,India,South Asia,2024 general election,2024-06-01,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation|delivery_personalisation,confirmed,confirmed,false,boundary_comparison,2,"The reported 50 million-plus calls and 25 million personalised calls are unaudited vendor figures, may overlap, and do not establish listening, persuasion, turnout, or vote effects.",2026-08-11
+cand-twn-2024-storm1376-gou-audio,screening_register,candidate_lead,Taiwan 2024 Storm-1376 false Terry Gou endorsement operation,Taiwan,East Asia,2024 presidential and legislative elections,2024-01-13,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation|supporting_tool,likely_for_focal_audio|confirmed_for_actor_assets,confirmed,false,promote_with_attribution_caveat,4,Microsoft's CCP linkage is a threat-intelligence attribution rather than an adjudicated state-command finding; YouTube removed the focal audio before significant reach and no vote effect is established.,2026-08-11
+cand-pak-2024-pti-authorised-clones,screening_register,candidate_lead,Pakistan 2024 PTI-authorised synthetic Imran Khan campaign speeches,Pakistan,South Asia,2024 general election,2024-02-08,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,boundary_comparison,5,"More than 1.4 million YouTube views document exposure, not persuasion; the success of PTI-backed independents cannot be causally attributed to synthetic speeches.",2026-08-11
+cand-pak-2024-fake-boycott-clones,screening_register,candidate_lead,Pakistan 2024 fake PTI election-boycott voice clones,Pakistan,South Asia,2024 general election,2024-02-08,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed_for_documented_examples,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,3,"Fact-checks establish the fabrication, but the operator, commissioning chain, unique reach, belief, participation response, and electoral effect are unknown.",2026-08-11
+cand-idn-2024-official-synthetic-campaigning,screening_register,candidate_lead,Indonesia 2024 official synthetic campaigning and Suharto resurrection,Indonesia,Southeast Asia,2024 presidential and legislative elections,2024-02-14,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation|campaign_personalisation,confirmed,confirmed,false,boundary_comparison,4,"The 4.7 million Suharto-view figure is provisional secondary reporting, while 19 billion #Prabowo TikTok views cover all hashtag content rather than AI assets; neither measures persuasion or vote causation.",2026-08-11
+cand-bgd-2024-progovernment-ai-disinformation,screening_register,candidate_lead,Bangladesh 2024 pro-government AI pseudo-news and opposition deepfakes,Bangladesh,South Asia,2024 parliamentary election,2024-01-07,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed_for_documented_examples,confirmed,false,promote_with_attribution_caveat,3,"Pro-government promotion does not prove Awami League or government commissioning; focal reach and voter effects are unknown, and the opposition boycott and noncompetitive environment preclude election-result inference.",2026-08-11
+cand-kor-2024-deepfake-enforcement-set,screening_register,candidate_lead,South Korea 2024 election deepfake enforcement set,South Korea,East Asia,2024 National Assembly election,2024-04-10,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation_for_counted_items,confirmed_at_aggregate_level,officially_reported_aggregate,false,boundary_aggregate_disaggregate_first,3,"The 129 detected items are not 129 unique operations, do not establish deception or views, and should be disaggregated before promotion to incident-level cases.",2026-08-11
+cand-zaf-2024-trump-mk-deepfake,screening_register,candidate_lead,South Africa 2024 false Trump endorsement of MK,South Africa,Southern Africa,2024 general election,2024-05-29,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed_for_focal_asset,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,5,"The creator and focal reach are unknown; replies are not a belief survey, and post-election research found GenAI and deepfake use was limited overall.",2026-08-11
+cand-nga-2023-atiku-spliced-audio,screening_register,candidate_lead,Nigeria 2023 spliced Atiku election-rigging audio,Nigeria,West Africa,2023 presidential election,2023-02-25,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,not_required_for_focal_asset|material_distribution,not_established|likely_conventional_edit,confirmed,false,boundary_synthetic_non_genai,4,"Splice analysis supports conventional compositing, not generative voice synthesis; thousands of listens and platform persistence do not establish belief, turnout, votes, or the responsible actor.",2026-08-11
+cand-gha-2024-llm-bot-network,screening_register,candidate_lead,Ghana 2024 likely LLM-assisted pro-NPP account network,Ghana,West Africa,2024 general election,2024-12-07,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_content_generation|material_amplification,likely_by_detector_and_behavioural_signals,confirmed_as_research_sample,false,promote_with_detection_caveat,2,"AI-text detection and coordination indicators do not prove ChatGPT use, automation, common control, NPP sponsorship, external reach, or electoral effect; most measured engagement was internal.",2026-08-11
+cand-ken-2022-platform-amplification,screening_register,candidate_lead,"Kenya 2022 recommender amplification, bots, and influence-for-hire",Kenya,East Africa,2022 general election,2022-08-09,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_material|conventional_manipulation,confirmed_in_sampled_traces,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,"The purposive sample's four million views are not electorate-wide prevalence or unique users; recommender lift lacks internal logs, and no causal study links the ecosystem to votes or the result.",2026-08-11
+cand-sk-2023-parl-simecka-todova-audio,screening_register,candidate_lead,Synthetic Simecka and Todova vote-rigging audio,Slovakia,Europe,2023 parliamentary election,2023-09-30,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,Amplifiers are known but the creator and state sponsor are not; SMER's victory is not evidence that the audio changed votes.,2026-08-11
+cand-fr-2017-pres-macronleaks,screening_register,candidate_lead,MacronLeaks hack-and-leak and automated amplification,France,Europe,2017 presidential election,2017-05-07,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_applicable,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,France's later GRU attribution is stronger at the cyber-campaign level than attribution of every forged item and amplifier; no individual causal vote estimate exists.,2026-08-11
+cand-fr-2024-eu-lepen-nieces,screening_register,candidate_lead,Fake Le Pen family personas using face swaps and stolen influencer videos,France,Europe,2024 European Parliament election,2024-06-09,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,"The operator is unknown, party involvement was denied and follower/view figures do not establish voter persuasion.",2026-08-11
+cand-fr-2024-leg-macron-bonus-copycop,screening_register,candidate_lead,CopyCop fake Macron voting-bonus site and LLM content laundering,France,Europe,2024 snap legislative election,2024-06-30,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,supporting_tool,confirmed,confirmed,false,promote_with_reach_caveat,3,"The corpus measures production, not audience; Russia-link is a strong research inference rather than final state attribution.",2026-08-11
+cand-uk-2024-ge-x-botlike-network,screening_register,candidate_lead,High-volume bot-like X accounts amplifying Reform and pro-Kremlin themes,United Kingdom,Europe,2024 general election,2024-07-04,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_established,partly_confirmed,false,promote_with_platform_corroboration,3,"Bot-like is a behavioral classification, not X-confirmed automation; 150 million displays are non-unique modeled impressions and no party link was shown.",2026-08-11
+cand-uk-2024-ge-nigeria-facebook-network,screening_register,candidate_lead,Nigeria-administered Facebook network using AI anti-immigration images,United Kingdom,Europe,2024 general election,2024-07-04,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,mixed,confirmed,confirmed,false,promote_with_reach_caveat,3,Most followers were outside the UK and likely fake engagement; pro-Kremlin content does not establish Russian control and no Reform involvement was shown.,2026-08-11
+cand-de-2025-bund-storm1516-rfbi,screening_register,candidate_lead,Storm-1516 and R-FBI synthetic witness and fake-news-site smears,Germany,Europe,2025 Bundestag election,2025-02-23,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,mixed,confirmed,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,"German attribution is strong at Storm-1516 campaign level, while exact responsibility for every R-FBI asset and domestic amplifier must stay scoped; no effect was measured.",2026-08-11
+cand-hu-2026-parl-proorban-tiktok-cio,screening_register,candidate_lead,Pro-Orban TikTok covert influence operation using generative-AI videos,Hungary,Europe,2026 parliamentary election,2026-04-12,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,promote_after_claim_coding,4,TikTok confirmed covert coordination but did not publicly identify the sponsor; the opposition landslide does not quantify or disprove attitudinal effects.,2026-08-11
+cand-sk-2024-pres-korcok-stb-hoax,screening_register,candidate_lead,Fabricated StB documents and fake-account amplification against Korcok,Slovakia,Europe,2024 presidential election,2024-04-06,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,material_amplification,not_established,confirmed,false,reserve_needs_platform_source,1,Needs a platform or election-authority source and method review for fake-account classification; no foreign-state direction or vote effect established.,2026-08-11
+cand-fr-2024-leg-zelenska-bugatti,screening_register,candidate_lead,Synthetic Bugatti dealership witness and fake Zelenska invoice,France,Europe,2024 snap legislative election,2024-07-07,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,probable,confirmed,false,reserve_election_targeting_unproven,3,Direct French-election targeting is unproven and much of the eighteen-million-view reach may have been international; keep outside the core tier.,2026-08-11
+cand-de-2025-bund-fake-ballots,screening_register,candidate_lead,Fabricated Leipzig and Hamburg ballot-suppression evidence,Germany,Europe,2025 Bundestag election,2025-02-23,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,supporting_tool,not_established,confirmed,false,reserve_needs_reach_and_attribution,2,Reach was limited or unreported and artifact-specific command attribution was not adjudicated; add platform metrics before promotion.,2026-08-11
+cand-hu-2026-parl-fidesz-execution-ad,screening_register,candidate_lead,Fidesz generative-AI execution-scene campaign advertisement,Hungary,Europe,2026 parliamentary election,2026-04-12,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,core_generation,confirmed,confirmed,false,boundary_official_campaign_content,2,"Reach, spend and ad-level effect are unresolved; broader survey belief in a war narrative cannot be attributed to this video.",2026-08-11
+cand-col-2026-pres-ai-media-family,screening_register,candidate_lead,Colombia 2026 presidential election AI-media family,Colombia,South America,2026 Colombian presidential election,2026-05-31,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,mixed_generation_and_amplification,established_at_observer_aggregate,confirmed_at_aggregate_level,false,disaggregate_before_claim_coding,2,"Aggregate observer reporting cannot establish a common operator, denominator, reach, or effect for each asset.",2026-08-12
+cand-nld-2025-ge-chatbot-voting-advice,screening_register,candidate_lead,Netherlands 2025 chatbot voting-advice audit,Netherlands,Europe,2025 Dutch general election,2025-10-29,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,information_intermediary,confirmed,confirmed_evaluation,false,model_evaluation_not_incident,2,"Evaluation outputs are not population exposure, real voter use, persuasion, or electoral effects.",2026-08-12
+cand-can-2025-fed-deepfake-prevalence,screening_register,candidate_lead,Canada 2025 deepfake prevalence and low-harm exposure sample,Canada,North America,2025 Canadian federal election,2025-04-28,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,measurement_and_observed_content,detector_classified_in_sample,confirmed_research_sample,false,observational_null_comparator,2,"Preprint, detector error, platform sampling and view denominators limit prevalence generalisation; null is study-scoped.",2026-08-12
+cand-jpn-2024-tokyo-anno-ai-avatar,screening_register,candidate_lead,Tokyo 2024 authorised Takahiro Anno AI avatar,Japan,East Asia,2024 Tokyo gubernatorial election,2024-07-07,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,candidate_access_substitution,confirmed,confirmed,false,positive_boundary_comparator,2,Campaign-reported response counts and vote totals do not identify votes caused by the avatar.,2026-08-12
+cand-aus-2025-fed-pravda-chatbot-poisoning,screening_register,candidate_lead,Australia 2025 Pravda network and chatbot knowledge poisoning,Australia,Oceania,2025 Australian federal election,2025-05-03,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,content_scale_and_information_intermediary,confirmed_for_audit_outputs,confirmed_network_and_audit,false,promote_after_claim_coding_with_attribution_caveat,3,"A chatbot-audit response rate is not voter exposure; intent and state attribution are investigative, not adjudicated.",2026-08-12
+cand-gbr-nir-2022-cara-hunter-sexual-deepfake,screening_register,candidate_lead,Northern Ireland 2022 Cara Hunter sexualised synthetic-video attack,United Kingdom,Europe,2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election,2022-05-05,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,alleged_or_probable_content_generation,not_forensically_public,victim_and_parliamentary_record_confirmed,false,promote_with_technical_provenance_caveat,3,"Origin, exact generation method, unique reach and vote effect remain unknown; do not redistribute the media.",2026-08-12
+cand-ecu-2025-pres-ai-disinformation-cluster,screening_register,candidate_lead,Ecuador 2025 AI-assisted viral disinformation cluster,Ecuador,South America,2025 Ecuadorian presidential election runoff,2025-04-13,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,content_generation_in_sample,observer_reported_sample,confirmed_at_aggregate_level,false,reserve_disaggregate_observer_sample,1,Aggregate sample cannot identify a common actor or causal effect; sampling frame and item coding must be preserved.,2026-08-12
+cand-usa-2024-grok-ballot-deadline-error,screening_register,candidate_lead,Grok ballot-deadline misinformation and state correction request,United States,North America,2024 United States general election,2024-11-05,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,interactive_election_information_intermediary,confirmed_deployed_closed_model,confirmed,false,promote_as_deployed_model_failure_after_claim_coding,3,"The official statement that screenshots reached millions is not a deduplicated user or voter-exposure measure; exact Grok version, prompt distribution and behavioural effects are unknown.",2026-08-12
+cand-usa-2024-storm2035-openai-low-engagement,screening_register,candidate_lead,Storm-2035 use of ChatGPT with low observed audience engagement,United States,North America,2024 United States general election,2024-11-05,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,supporting_content_generation,provider_confirmed_use,confirmed_by_provider_telemetry,false,promote_as_provider_telemetry_negative_case_after_claim_coding,1,Provider telemetry is interested primary evidence and cannot observe every off-platform exposure; the candidate needs independent corroboration before core promotion.,2026-08-12
+cand-bra-2024-municipal-ai-observatory,screening_register,candidate_lead,Brazil 2024 municipal-election GenAI observatory sample,Brazil,South America,2024 Brazilian municipal elections,2024-10-06,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,mixed_generation_and_monitoring_context,confirmed_in_bounded_observations,confirmed_within_search_scope,false,promote_as_observational_null_and_boundary_sample,2,Civil-society monitoring is not a census and cannot support the claim that AI had no impact; artifact-level coding is required for specific harms.,2026-08-12
+cand-sgp-2025-ge-ai-video-sample,screening_register,candidate_lead,Singapore 2025 election AI-video sample and no-breach review outcome,Singapore,Southeast Asia,2025 Singapore general election,2025-05-03,screening,not_yet_claim_coded,content_generation_in_sample,confirmed_for_sampled_items,confirmed_within_keyword_monitoring_window,false,promote_as_observational_sample_after_item_coding,3,"Do not call all 73 videos deepfakes or violations: 11 visually manipulated prospective candidates, only four were clearly labelled, and the official review found no breach in the reviewed set.",2026-08-12
+eval-us-aidp-english-2024,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,AI Democracy Projects English election-query pilot,United States,North America,2024 U.S. election information,,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,"Evaluation window: January 2024. Point-in-time domain safety test; not representative of users, all questions, consumer interfaces, future performance, or election effects.",2026-08-12
+eval-us-aidp-spanish-2024,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,AI Democracy Projects bilingual Arizona election-query evaluation,United States,North America,Arizona voter information,,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,Evaluation window: 2024. API responses may differ from consumer chatbots; one state and selected questions; no user or electoral-effect measurement.,2026-08-12
+eval-hu-voting-advice-2026,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,Hungary 2026 general-purpose AI voting-advice evaluation,Hungary,Europe,2026 Hungarian parliamentary election,,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,Evaluation window: 23-24 March 2026. Structured audit during a live campaign; not a sample of real users and not evidence that outputs affected the decisive result.,2026-08-12
+eval-us-brennan-2026,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,Brennan Center election-disinformation capability and safeguard evaluation,United States,North America,2026 U.S. midterm election-disinformation scenarios,,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,"Evaluation window: February-August 2026. Capability and safeguard evidence under researcher tests; not deployment prevalence, audience exposure, or electoral effect. Harmful prompts are intentionally withheld.",2026-08-12
+eval-global-voter-dialogue-rct-2025,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,Persuading voters using human-artificial intelligence dialogues,United States|Canada|Poland,Cross-national,"2024 U.S., 2025 Canadian and 2025 Polish national elections",,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,"Evaluation window: 2024-2025 election periods. Causal for the experimental conversations and measured self-reports; not observed campaign deployment, actual ballots, aggregate election outcomes, durable effects, or covert manipulation.",2026-08-12
+eval-uk-chatbot-voting-advice-rct-2025,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,Chatbot Voting Advice Applications inform but seldom sway young unaligned voters,United Kingdom,Europe,experimental voting-advice context,,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,Evaluation window: 2025. Causal within the experimental samples and interfaces; not a population prevalence estimate or proof that conversational political AI never persuades.,2026-08-12
+eval-eu-mistral-voting-assistant-2024,empirical_model_study,model_evaluation_or_experiment,Mistral and Mixtral as European Parliament voting assistants,European Union,Europe,2024 European Parliament election,,completed_study,not_an_incident,tested_system_capability,confirmed_tested_system,study_design_specific,false,included_empirical_study,1,"Evaluation window: 2024. Point-in-time model audit; not public deployment, user behavior or election effect.",2026-08-12

data/case_sources.csv

@@ -7,17 +7,17 @@ ro-2024-presidential-annulment,src-ro-tiktok-integrity,context,reach|response,Pl
 ro-2024-presidential-annulment,src-ro-ifes-202412,corroboration,mechanism|ai_role|electoral_effect,
 ro-2024-presidential-annulment,src-ro-sri-csat-20241204,primary_record,occurrence|reach|attribution,"Authoritative record of the intelligence assessment, not a final adjudication."
 ro-2024-presidential-annulment,src-ro-snoop-pnl-20241220,counterevidence,attribution|counterevidence,PNL-funded brief is distinct from other network components; intent to support Georgescu is not established.
-ro-2025-presidential-repeat,src-ro-odihr-repeat-final,primary_record,occurrence|institutional_outcome|electoral_effect,
-ro-2025-presidential-repeat,src-ro-venice-202503,methodology,electoral_effect|legal_status,
+ro-2025-presidential-repeat,src-ro-odihr-repeat-final,primary_record,occurrence|electoral_effect,Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: institutional_outcome.
+ro-2025-presidential-repeat,src-ro-venice-202503,methodology,electoral_effect,Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: legal_status.
 ro-2025-presidential-repeat,src-ro-dfrlab-repeat-20250826,corroboration,occurrence|reach|ai_role|attribution|electoral_effect,Public-data network study; gross platform metrics are not unique voter reach.
 md-2024-presidential-referendum,src-md-odihr-prelim-20241021,primary_record,occurrence|mechanism|counterevidence,
 md-2024-presidential-referendum,src-md-odihr-final-20250314,primary_record,occurrence|mechanism|attribution|behavioural_effect|electoral_effect|institutional_outcome|counterevidence,
 md-2024-presidential-referendum,src-md-reuters-payments-20241024,corroboration,mechanism|attribution|behavioural_effect,Reports police allegation and denials.
 md-2024-presidential-referendum,src-md-eeas-fimi-202401,primary_record,ai_role|mechanism,
 md-2024-presidential-referendum,src-md-meta-threat-reporting,context,mechanism|reach,Platform self-report.
-md-2024-presidential-referendum,src-md-eeas-activity-2025,primary_record,attribution|response,
+md-2024-presidential-referendum,src-md-eeas-activity-2025,primary_record,attribution,Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: response.
 md-2024-presidential-referendum,src-md-odihr-parliament-202602,context,ai_role|reach,Linked later election; avoid back-projection.
-md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,src-md-odihr-parliament-202602,primary_record,occurrence|mechanism|ai_role|attribution|electoral_effect,
+md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,src-md-odihr-parliament-202602,primary_record,occurrence|mechanism|attribution|electoral_effect,Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: ai_role.
 md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,src-md-dfrlab-infoleaders-20250924,corroboration,occurrence|reach|mechanism|attribution|electoral_effect,Network study linked to undercover reporting; output metrics are not unique voters.
 us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-fcc-ai-voice-20240208,primary_record,legal_status,
 us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-fcc-kramer-nal-20240523,primary_record,occurrence|mechanism|attribution,"Notice, not final forfeiture."
@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-fcc-lingo-nal-pdf-20240523,primary_record,reach
 us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-nhdoj-kramer-20240523,primary_record,occurrence|mechanism|legal_status,Charges are allegations.
 us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-fcc-lingo-settlement-20240821,primary_record,mechanism|institutional_outcome,
 us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-fcc-kramer-fine-20240926,primary_record,occurrence|attribution|behavioural_effect|electoral_effect|institutional_outcome,
-us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-nhpr-acquittal-20250613,counterevidence,attribution|behavioural_effect|electoral_effect|legal_status|counterevidence,Essential acquittal record.
+us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-nhpr-acquittal-20250613,counterevidence,attribution|behavioural_effect|electoral_effect|legal_status,Essential acquittal record. Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: counterevidence.
 br-2026-election-preparedness,src-br-tse-res-23755-20260302,primary_record,legal_status|response,
 br-2026-election-preparedness,src-br-tse-calendar-202603,primary_record,occurrence,
 br-2026-election-preparedness,src-br-tse-ai-rules-202604,context,legal_status,
@@ -38,30 +38,30 @@ br-2026-election-preparedness,src-br-aio-202411,counterevidence,counterevidence,
 br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,src-br-reuters-avatar-20260728,corroboration,occurrence|mechanism|attribution|behavioural_effect|legal_status|counterevidence|agency_transfer,Time-sensitive ongoing legal dispute.
 br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,src-br-tse-res-23755-20260302,primary_record,legal_status|counterevidence,
 us-2026-midterms-preparedness,src-us-fec-dates-2026,primary_record,occurrence,
-us-2026-midterms-preparedness,src-us-cisa-genai-202401,methodology,ai_role|mechanism,Prior-cycle assessment.
-us-2026-midterms-preparedness,src-us-odni-update-20241021,context,attribution|mechanism,Prior-cycle evidence.
+us-2026-midterms-preparedness,src-us-cisa-genai-202401,methodology,ai_role,Prior-cycle assessment. Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: mechanism.
+us-2026-midterms-preparedness,src-us-odni-update-20241021,context,attribution,Prior-cycle evidence. Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: mechanism.
 us-2026-midterms-preparedness,src-us-fec-ai-disposition-2024,primary_record,legal_status,
 us-2026-midterms-preparedness,src-us-fcc-ai-voice-20240208,context,legal_status|counterevidence,"Narrow federal telecom rule, not a broad political-messaging standard."
 us-2026-midterms-preparedness,src-us-ncsl-20260623,ongoing_monitoring,legal_status,
-us-2026-midterms-preparedness,src-us-reuters-midterms-20260328,ongoing_monitoring,occurrence|mechanism|legal_status,
+us-2026-midterms-preparedness,src-us-reuters-midterms-20260328,ongoing_monitoring,occurrence|legal_status,Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: mechanism.
 us-2026-midterms-preparedness,src-global-meta-muted-20241203,counterevidence,counterevidence,Platform assessment reported by Reuters.
 us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,src-us-reuters-midterms-20260328,corroboration,occurrence|mechanism|reach|behavioural_effect|counterevidence|agency_transfer,
-us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,src-us-ncsl-20260623,context,legal_status,
+us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,src-us-ncsl-20260623,context,,Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: legal_status.
 us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,src-global-pdid-2024,methodology,,Methodology reference; not direct support for an atomic claim.
 us-2026-midterms-preparedness,src-global-row-tracker-20240416,methodology,,Methodology reference; not direct support for an atomic claim.
 us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-fcc-kramer-final-pdf-20240926,primary_record,occurrence|attribution|reach|legal_status|institutional_outcome|agency_transfer,Final FCC order.
 us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-fcc-lingo-consent-202408,primary_record,reach|mechanism|institutional_outcome|agency_transfer,Consent decree; not criminal adjudication.
-us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-ap-kramer-acquittal-20250613,counterevidence,legal_status|counterevidence,All 22 state counts acquitted.
+us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-ap-kramer-acquittal-20250613,counterevidence,legal_status,All 22 state counts acquitted. Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: counterevidence.
 us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-lwv-kramer-civil,corroboration,institutional_outcome,Secondary case index and outcome summary linking filings.
 us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,src-us-ap-kramer-default-202511,corroboration,institutional_outcome,"Default, not contested merits trial."
 br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,src-br-tse-res-23610-consolidated,primary_record,legal_status|counterevidence,Operative consolidated arts. 9-B and 9-C.
 br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,src-br-avatar-petition-20260726,primary_record,legal_status|occurrence,"Filing proves allegations were made, not violation."
 br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,src-br-ft-avatar-202607,corroboration,attribution|agency_transfer|counterevidence,Reports authorisation denial.
 br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,src-br-folha-avatar-defense-202607,counterevidence,legal_status|counterevidence,Defence position.
-br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,src-br-poder360-avatar-pending-20260811,ongoing_monitoring,legal_status|institutional_outcome,Scheduled meeting is not a merits outcome.
-us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,src-us-nrsc-talarico-20260311,primary_record,occurrence|mechanism|attribution|counterevidence|agency_transfer,Primary actor artifact and transcript.
+br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,src-br-poder360-avatar-pending-20260811,ongoing_monitoring,legal_status,Scheduled meeting is not a merits outcome. Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: institutional_outcome.
+us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,src-us-nrsc-talarico-20260311,primary_record,occurrence|mechanism|counterevidence|agency_transfer,Primary actor artifact and transcript. Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: attribution.
 us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,src-us-nrsc-talarico-youtube,ongoing_monitoring,reach,Dynamic one-platform metric.
-us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,src-us-berkeley-talarico-2026,corroboration,mechanism|ai_role|agency_transfer,Expert context.
+us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,src-us-berkeley-talarico-2026,corroboration,mechanism|agency_transfer,Expert context. Contextual source roles not represented by an atomic claim in this release were omitted from supports_claim_types: ai_role.
 us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,src-us-ca11-gazetteer-20260804,corroboration,occurrence|attribution|ai_role|mechanism|counterevidence|agency_transfer,Reporting includes direct interface and privacy-policy observation.
 us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,src-us-ca11-sfgate-20260804,corroboration,occurrence|attribution|ai_role|mechanism|counterevidence|agency_transfer,Direct campaign statements and interface testing.
 us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,src-us-ca11-mission-20260807,corroboration,occurrence|reach|response|behavioural_effect,Supports exact campaign-reported interaction count and withdrawal.

data/datapackage.json

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
   "profile": "tabular-data-package",
   "name": "agency-transfer-election-cases",
   "title": "AI, Elections and Agency Transfer Evidence Index",
-  "version": "0.3.0",
+  "version": "0.3.1",
   "description": "Purposive, claim-level research corpus with normalized pathways, observations, empirical model studies, screening records and official electoral context. Not a global prevalence sample.",
   "licenses": [
     {
@@ -1260,7 +1260,8 @@
           },
           {
             "name": "election_date",
-            "type": "date"
+            "type": "date",
+            "description": "ISO election date for core cases and screening leads; blank for empirical studies whose evaluation window is stored in model_evaluations."
           },
           {
             "name": "case_status",
@@ -1724,7 +1725,8 @@
             }
           }
         ]
-      }
+      },
+      "description": "Selected decision-relevant quantitative observations normalized from claims; absence of a row does not imply absence of all numeric text in the evidence corpus."
     },
     {
       "name": "model_evaluations",

data/election_sources.csv

@@ -20,6 +20,8 @@ election-source-elec-md-parl-2025-off-md-2025-cc-h12,elec-md-parl-2025,off-md-20
 election-source-elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024-off-nh-2024-ballots,elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024,off-nh-2024-ballots,supports_election_context_or_status
 election-source-elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024-off-nh-2024-dem-results,elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024,off-nh-2024-dem-results,supports_election_context_or_status
 election-source-elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024-off-nh-2024-checklist,elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024,off-nh-2024-checklist,supports_election_context_or_status
+election-source-elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024-off-nh-2024-primary-law,elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024,off-nh-2024-primary-law,supports_election_context_or_status
+election-source-elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024-off-nh-2024-dnc-status,elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024,off-nh-2024-dnc-status,supports_election_context_or_status
 election-source-elec-br-general-2026-r1-off-br-2026-calendar,elec-br-general-2026-r1,off-br-2026-calendar,supports_election_context_or_status
 election-source-elec-br-general-2026-r1-off-br-2026-electorate,elec-br-general-2026-r1,off-br-2026-electorate,supports_election_context_or_status
 election-source-elec-br-general-2026-r1-off-br-2026-candidates,elec-br-general-2026-r1,off-br-2026-candidates,supports_election_context_or_status

data/observations.csv

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ q-ro25-views,ro-2025-presidential-repeat,ata-ro25,clm-ro-015,exposure_or_distrib
 q-ro25-likes,ro-2025-presidential-repeat,ata-ro25,clm-ro-015,descriptive_context,likes,681000,681000,,at_least,likes,engagement_events,unknown,Facebook|Instagram|TikTok,Romania,2024-12_to_2025-06-06,researcher_aggregated_platform_metrics,descriptive_only,src-ro-dfrlab-repeat-20250826,2026-08-11,Likes are not exposure or persuasion.
 q-md24-fb-followers,md-2024-presidential-referendum,ata-md24,clm-md-014,descriptive_context,followers,,4200,,about,followers,page_followers,unknown,Facebook,Moldova,at_takedown_2024-10-11,platform_reported,descriptive_only,src-md-meta-threat-reporting,2026-08-11,Meta said most followers were outside Moldova or indicated fake engagement.
 q-md24-ig-followers,md-2024-presidential-referendum,ata-md24,clm-md-014,descriptive_context,followers,,335000,,about,followers,account_followers,unknown,Instagram,Moldova,at_takedown_2024-10-11,platform_reported,descriptive_only,src-md-meta-threat-reporting,2026-08-11,Meta said most followers were outside Moldova or indicated fake engagement.
+q-md24-enforcement-accounts-transactions,md-2024-presidential-referendum,ata-md24,clm-md-008,production_or_engagement,accounts_and_transactions,,138000,,more_than,accounts_and_transactions,combined_accounts_and_transactions_across_linked_investigations,unknown,mixed_enforcement_records,Moldova,linked_investigations_cited_in_2026_report,observer_reported_enforcement_aggregate,descriptive_only,src-md-odihr-parliament-202602,2026-08-11,"This heterogeneous enforcement indicator combines accounts and transactions, may include repeated entities, and is not a count of recipients, exposed people, persuaded voters or unique accounts."
 q-md25-accounts,md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,ata-md25,clm-md-015,production_or_engagement,accounts,,253,,exact_in_sample,accounts,analysed_network_sample,not_applicable,Facebook|Instagram|TikTok,Moldova,study_window,researcher_measured,descriptive_only,src-md-dfrlab-infoleaders-20250924,2026-08-11,"Sample, not the full operation."
 q-md25-posts,md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,ata-md25,clm-md-016,production_or_engagement,posts,,28708,,exact_in_sample,posts,content_volume,not_applicable,Facebook|Instagram|TikTok,Moldova,study_window,researcher_measured,descriptive_only,src-md-dfrlab-infoleaders-20250924,2026-08-11,"Content count, not audience."
 q-md25-views,md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,ata-md25,clm-md-016,exposure_or_distribution,views,,55367950,,exact_in_sample,views,platform_view_events,unknown,Facebook|Instagram|TikTok,Moldova,study_window,researcher_aggregated_platform_metrics,descriptive_only,src-md-dfrlab-infoleaders-20250924,2026-08-11,Cross-platform view events are non-unique and non-causal.
@@ -14,6 +15,11 @@ q-md25-shares,md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,ata-md25,clm-md-016,descripti
 q-md25-comments,md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,ata-md25,clm-md-016,descriptive_context,comments,,239016,,exact_in_sample,comments,engagement_events,unknown,Facebook|Instagram|TikTok,Moldova,study_window,researcher_aggregated_platform_metrics,descriptive_only,src-md-dfrlab-infoleaders-20250924,2026-08-11,Engagement is not belief or vote change.
 q-nh-attempts,us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,ata-nh,clm-nh-004,production_or_engagement,call_attempts,9581,9581,9581,exact,call_attempts,delivery_attempts,unknown,telecom,United States,campaign_window,provider_records_in_enforcement,descriptive_only,src-us-fcc-kramer-final-pdf-20240926,2026-08-11,"Attempts are not completed calls, listeners, unique recipients or voters."
 q-nh-completed,us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,ata-nh,clm-nh-004,production_or_engagement,completed_calls,3978,3978,3978,exact,completed_calls,completed_call_records,unknown,telecom,United States,campaign_window,provider_records_in_enforcement,descriptive_only,src-us-fcc-kramer-final-pdf-20240926,2026-08-11,Completed calls are not necessarily unique listeners or persuaded voters.
+q-nh-kramer-forfeiture-usd,us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,ata-nh,clm-nh-007,institutional_response,fine_forfeiture_usd,6000000,6000000,6000000,exact,fine_forfeiture_usd,separate_FCC_forfeiture_against_Steve_Kramer,not_applicable,Federal Communications Commission,United States,forfeiture_order_2024-09-26,official_enforcement_order,descriptive_only,src-us-fcc-kramer-final-pdf-20240926,2026-08-11,"This is the FCC forfeiture against Kramer, not the separate Lingo penalty and not a measure of electoral harm."
+q-nh-lingo-civil-penalty-usd,us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,ata-nh,clm-nh-007,institutional_response,fine_civil_penalty_usd,1000000,1000000,1000000,exact,fine_civil_penalty_usd,separate_Lingo_Telecom_civil_penalty,not_applicable,Federal Communications Commission,United States,consent_decree_2024-08-21,official_consent_decree,descriptive_only,src-us-fcc-lingo-consent-202408,2026-08-11,"This is the separate Lingo Telecom civil penalty and compliance plan, not the Kramer forfeiture and not a measure of electoral harm."
+q-us26-states-deepfake-laws,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,ata-usprep,clm-us26-002,descriptive_context,states_with_enacted_political_deepfake_laws,31,31,31,exact,states_with_enacted_political_deepfake_laws,United_States_states,not_applicable,state_legislation,United States,snapshot_2026-06-23,legislative_tracker_count,descriptive_only,src-us-ncsl-20260623,2026-08-11,"Snapshot count only. Enactment, effective date, scope, prohibitions, disclosure requirements and litigation status differ by state."
+q-us26-reported-synthetic-ads,us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,ata-usads,clm-us26-010,descriptive_context,synthetic_ads_identified_in_reporting,3,3,,at_least,synthetic_ads_identified_in_reporting,named_ads_in_reviewed_reporting,not_applicable,multiple_campaign_channels,United States,reporting_through_2026-03-28,independent_reporting_content_count,descriptive_only,src-us-reuters-midterms-20260328,2026-08-11,"A lower-bound content count from reviewed reporting, not a census of campaign ads, impressions, targeting, unique exposure or electoral effects."
 q-us26-talarico-youtube,us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,ata-usads,clm-us26-015,exposure_or_distribution,views,,3700,,approximately,views,platform_view_events,unknown,YouTube,United States,snapshot_2026-08-11,platform_snapshot,descriptive_only,src-us-nrsc-talarico-youtube,2026-08-11,"Dynamic, non-unique view counter; excludes other platforms and paid impressions."
 q-usca11-questions,us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,ata-usca11,clm-usca11-006,production_or_engagement,submitted_questions,5058,5058,5058,exact_campaign_report,submitted_questions,interaction_events,unknown,ConnieChan.ai,United States,first_27_hours,campaign_reported,descriptive_only,src-us-ca11-mission-20260807,2026-08-12,"Not users, conversations, district voters, impressions, accepted answers, or outcomes; repeated and adversarial prompts possible."
 q-usca11-billboards,us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,ata-usca11,clm-usca11-001,descriptive_context,billboards,2,2,2,exact_campaign_report,billboards,promotional_placements,not_applicable,physical,United States,August_2026,campaign_reported,descriptive_only,src-us-ca11-sfgate-20260804,2026-08-12,No impression estimate is available.
+q-usca11-retention-policy-days,us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,ata-usca11,clm-usca11-007,descriptive_context,maximum_conversation_retention_days,,90,,policy_maximum,maximum_conversation_retention_days,conversation_log_retention_policy,not_applicable,ConnieChan.ai,United States,privacy_policy_observed_2026-08-04,reporter_direct_observation_of_privacy_policy,descriptive_only,src-us-ca11-gazetteer-20260804,2026-08-12,The policy allowed retention for up to 90 days; this does not establish that every conversation was retained for 90 days or that staff reviewed any particular log.

data/official_data_sources.csv

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ off-br-2026-electorate,brazil-general-2026,Brazil,Tribunal Superior Eleitoral /
 off-br-2026-candidates,brazil-general-2026,Brazil,Tribunal Superior Eleitoral / AGEL,Candidatos 2026,https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/dataset/candidatos-2026,candidate_snapshot,pre_election,CKAN package; ZIP containing Latin-1 semicolon CSV,candidate; contest; state,CKAN metadata and direct ZIP,frequent pre-election snapshots,CKAN declares cc-by without a version; attribute TSE/AGEL and preserve source metadata,https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/dataset/candidatos-2026,,,2026-08-12,,,,2026-08-12,"Candidate records are provisional and not equivalent to ballot qualification. Whitelist public campaign fields; never republish CPF, voter-title, date-of-birth, email, or address fields."
 off-br-2026-results-monitor,brazil-general-2026,Brazil,Tribunal Superior Eleitoral / AGEL,Official CKAN query for Resultados 2026,https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/api/3/action/package_search?q=resultados%202026,future_result_monitor,not_yet_available,CKAN API JSON,not yet available,API query,recheck through totalization and certification,No 2026 result package existed at cutoff,https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/api/3/action/package_search?q=resultados%202026,,,2026-08-12,,,,2026-08-12,The official query returned zero datasets at the cutoff. No speculative result URL or result row is created.
 off-us-2026-fec-dates,us-midterms-2026,United States,Federal Election Commission,2026 congressional primary dates and candidate filing deadlines for ballot access,https://www.fec.gov/documents/5910/2026pdates.pdf,calendar,scheduled,PDF,state,direct download,as state dates change,United States federal government source,https://www.fec.gov/documents/5910/2026pdates.pdf,https://www.fec.gov/documents/5910/2026pdates.pdf,,2026-08-12,,,,2026-08-12,"FEC administers campaign finance, not state election administration or certification; dates were explicitly subject to change."
-off-us-2026-fec-candidates,us-midterms-2026,United States,Federal Election Commission,2026 candidate master file,https://www.fec.gov/files/bulk-downloads/2026/cn26.zip,candidate_registration_snapshot,pre_election,ZIP containing delimited text,federal candidate; state; district,direct bulk download,periodic bulk snapshot,United States federal government source; statutory-use and privacy constraints still apply,https://www.fec.gov/files/bulk-downloads/2026/cn26.zip,,,2026-08-12,,,,2026-08-12,FEC registration status is not ballot qualification. Do not republish candidate addresses.
+off-us-2026-fec-candidates,us-midterms-2026,United States,Federal Election Commission,2026 candidate master file,https://www.fec.gov/files/bulk-downloads/2026/cn26.zip,candidate_registration_snapshot,pre_election,ZIP containing delimited text,federal candidate; state; district,direct bulk download,periodic bulk snapshot,United States federal government source; statutory-use and privacy constraints still apply,https://www.fec.gov/files/bulk-downloads/2026/cn26.zip,https://www.fec.gov/files/bulk-downloads/2026/cn26.zip,,2026-08-12,,,,2026-08-12,FEC registration status is not ballot qualification. Do not republish candidate addresses.
 off-us-2024-eavs-benchmark,us-midterms-2026,United States,United States Election Assistance Commission,2024 Election Administration and Voting Survey public-release data,https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2026-02/2024_EAVS_for_Public_Release_nolabel_V2_csv.zip,retrospective_contextual_benchmark,final,ZIP containing CSV,state and local election jurisdiction,direct download,biennial survey release,United States federal government source,https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2026-02/2024_EAVS_for_Public_Release_nolabel_V2_csv.zip,https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2026-02/2024_EAVS_for_Public_Release_nolabel_V2_csv.zip,,2026-08-12,,,,2026-08-12,"Retrospective 2024 benchmark only, not a live 2026 voter file. Missing-value and casewise-denominator rules must be followed."
 off-ro-2024-ccr-h31,romania-presidential-2024-2025,Romania,Constitutional Court of Romania,Decision 31 of 2 December 2024 confirming and validating the first-round result,https://legislatie.just.ro/public/DetaliiDocument/291969,legal_validation_and_complete_results,final,HTML legal record,national,landing page,finalized election record,official legal record,https://legislatie.just.ro/public/DetaliiDocument/291969,,,2026-08-12,,,,2026-08-12,H31 established the valid first-round order before H32 later voided the entire process.
 off-ro-2025-ccr-h39,romania-presidential-2024-2025,Romania,Constitutional Court of Romania,Decision 39 of 9 May 2025 confirming and validating the repeat first round,https://www.ccr.ro/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Hotarare_39_2025.pdf,legal_validation_and_complete_results,final,PDF,national,direct download,finalized election record,official legal record,https://www.ccr.ro/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Hotarare_39_2025.pdf,https://www.ccr.ro/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Hotarare_39_2025.pdf,,2026-08-12,,,,2026-08-12,Complete 11-candidate result.
@@ -29,3 +29,4 @@ off-md-2025-cc-h12,moldova-elections-2024-2025,Moldova,Constitutional Court of M
 off-br-2026-contests,brazil-general-2026,Brazil,Superior Electoral Court,Resolution 23.751/2026 on offices contested and voting rules,https://www.tse.jus.br/legislacao/compilada/res/2026/resolucao-no-23-751-de-26-de-fevereiro-de-2026,contest_definition,current,HTML legal record,national and state,landing page,election cycle,official legal record,https://www.tse.jus.br/legislacao/compilada/res/2026/resolucao-no-23-751-de-26-de-fevereiro-de-2026,,,2026-08-12,,,,2026-08-12,Second round applies only to president and governors when required.
 off-us-congress-election-law,us-midterms-2026,United States,United States Congress,2 U.S.C. sections 1 and 7: congressional election timing,https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?edition=prelim&num=0&req=granuleid%3AUSC-prelim-title2-section7,contest_timing_context,current,HTML legal code,federal and state/district,landing page,statutory,public law,https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?edition=prelim&num=0&req=granuleid%3AUSC-prelim-title2-section7,,,2026-08-12,,,,2026-08-12,"The national date bundles separate House, Senate and special contests administered and certified by states."
 off-nh-2024-primary-law,new-hampshire-biden-robocall-2024,New Hampshire,New Hampshire General Court,RSA 659:73 and RSA 654:34 primary counting and undeclared-voter context,https://gc.nh.gov/rsa/html/LXIII/659/659-73.htm,denominator_and_counting_context,current,HTML legal code,state,landing page,statutory,public law,https://gc.nh.gov/rsa/html/LXIII/659/659-73.htm,,,2026-08-12,,,,2026-08-12,Explains why the all-party checklist is not a Democratic-primary turnout denominator.
+off-nh-2024-dnc-status,new-hampshire-biden-robocall-2024,New Hampshire,New Hampshire Department of Justice,Unlawful Voter Suppression Cease and Desist Order,https://www.doj.nh.gov/news-and-media/unlawful-voter-suppression-cease-and-desist-order,institutional_primary_and_delegate_status,final,HTML official statement,state,landing page,finalized election record,official state statement,https://www.doj.nh.gov/news-and-media/unlawful-voter-suppression-cease-and-desist-order,,,2026-08-12,,,,2026-08-12,Documents the institutional dispute and that the DNC did not award delegates from the 23 January state-run result; do not describe the election as legally nonexistent or infer a delegate allocation from its vote tally.

data/official_elections.csv

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ elec-md-pres-2024-r1,moldova-elections-2024-2025,md-2024-presidential-referendum
 elec-md-referendum-2024,moldova-elections-2024-2025,md-2024-presidential-referendum,Moldova,MDA,Moldova constitutional referendum,referendum,single,2024-10-20,completed,law_adopted_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Moldova,national; electoral circumscription; polling station; abroad,off-md-2024-referendum-xlsx|off-md-2024-ref-cc-h24,2026-08-12,Question: Susțineți modificarea Constituției în vederea aderării Republicii Moldova la Uniunea Europeană? Validity threshold: one third; law adopted and confirmed.
 elec-md-pres-2024-r2,moldova-elections-2024-2025,md-2024-presidential-referendum,Moldova,MDA,"Moldova presidential election, second round",presidential,2,2024-11-03,completed,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Moldova,national; electoral circumscription; polling station; abroad,off-md-2024-pres-r2-xlsx|off-md-2024-pres-cc-h25,2026-08-12,The dataset uses the official national summary row.
 elec-md-parl-2025,moldova-elections-2024-2025,md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,Moldova,MDA,Moldova parliamentary election,parliamentary,single,2025-09-28,completed,CEC_valid_Constitutional_Court_confirmed_101_mandates,Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Moldova,national; electoral circumscription; polling station; abroad; postal voting,off-md-2025-parliament-xlsx|off-md-2025-cec-h4149|off-md-2025-cec-h4151|off-md-2025-cc-h12,2026-08-12,The official workbook explains that one Tokyo vote for Moldova Mare was invalidated during national centralization.
-elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024,new-hampshire-biden-robocall-2024,us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,"New Hampshire, United States",USA,New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary,primary,single,2024-01-23,completed,final,New Hampshire Secretary of State,state; county; town or city ward,off-nh-2024-ballots|off-nh-2024-dem-results|off-nh-2024-checklist,2026-08-12,The all-party checklist total is not a valid Democratic-primary turnout denominator because undeclared voters may choose a party ballot and same-day registration or party changes occur.
+elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024,new-hampshire-biden-robocall-2024,us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,"New Hampshire, United States",USA,New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary,primary,single,2024-01-23,completed,final,New Hampshire Secretary of State,state; county; town or city ward,off-nh-2024-ballots|off-nh-2024-dem-results|off-nh-2024-checklist|off-nh-2024-primary-law|off-nh-2024-dnc-status,2026-08-12,"The 23 January event was a state-run primary with a final state tally, but the DNC did not award delegates from that result. The tally therefore has delegate_effect=none_from_Jan23_results. The all-party checklist is not a valid Democratic-primary turnout denominator because undeclared voters may choose a party ballot and same-day registration or party changes occur."
 elec-br-general-2026-r1,brazil-general-2026,br-2026-election-preparedness|br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,Brazil,BRA,Brazil 2026 first-round election bundle,election_bundle,1,2026-10-04,scheduled,not_yet_available,Tribunal Superior Eleitoral,national; state; municipality; electoral zone,off-br-2026-calendar|off-br-2026-electorate|off-br-2026-candidates|off-br-2026-results-monitor|off-br-2026-contests,2026-08-12,"4 October bundles president, 27 governors, two Senate choices per elector, Chamber of Deputies, state assemblies and the Federal District chamber. Candidate files before the 15 August filing deadline are incomplete snapshots, not ballot qualification."
 elec-br-general-2026-r2,brazil-general-2026,br-2026-election-preparedness|br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,Brazil,BRA,Brazil 2026 conditional presidential and gubernatorial runoffs,conditional_executive_runoffs,2,2026-10-25,conditional,not_yet_available,Tribunal Superior Eleitoral,national; state; municipality; electoral zone,off-br-2026-calendar|off-br-2026-results-monitor|off-br-2026-contests,2026-08-12,25 October is limited to president and governors requiring a runoff; it is not a second round for legislative contests.
 elec-us-midterms-2026,us-midterms-2026,us-2026-midterms-preparedness|us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads|us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,United States,USA,United States 2026 federal election bundle,election_bundle,varies_by_jurisdiction,2026-11-03,scheduled,not_yet_available,state and local election authorities; no single national certifier,state; congressional district; local election jurisdiction,off-us-2026-fec-dates|off-us-2026-fec-candidates|off-us-2024-eavs-benchmark|off-us-congress-election-law,2026-08-12,"Not one national contest: 435 House districts, Senate Class II and special/delegate contests are administered and certified by states; some jurisdictions can hold later runoffs. FEC files are calendar/finance snapshots, not ballot-access or result certification."

data/official_results.csv

@@ -2,23 +2,23 @@ result_id,election_id,geographic_unit_type,geographic_unit_code,geographic_unit_
 result-ro24-calin-georgescu,elec-ro-pres-2024-r1,national,ROU,Romania,Presidential election,Călin Georgescu,independent,,2120401,0.22942635,1,advanced_before_annulment,,final_tally_validated_then_process_void,complete_national_contest,off-ro-2024-aep-final,2026-08-12,Final count before the entire electoral process was annulled.
 result-ro24-elena-lasconi,elec-ro-pres-2024-r1,national,ROU,Romania,Presidential election,Elena Lasconi,USR,,1772500,0.191783632141,2,advanced_before_annulment,,final_tally_validated_then_process_void,complete_national_contest,off-ro-2024-aep-final,2026-08-12,Final count before the entire electoral process was annulled.
 result-ro24-marcel-ciolacu,elec-ro-pres-2024-r1,national,ROU,Romania,Presidential election,Marcel Ciolacu,PSD,,1769760,0.191487165482,3,not_advanced_before_annulment,,final_tally_validated_then_process_void,complete_national_contest,off-ro-2024-aep-final,2026-08-12,Final count before the entire electoral process was annulled.
-result-ro25r1-george-simion,elec-ro-pres-2025-r1,national,ROU,Romania,Presidential election,George Simion,AUR,,3862761,0.409612806584,1,advanced,,CCR_confirmed_and_validated,complete_national_contest,off-ro-2025-r1-aep-final,2026-08-12,Top-three extract; consult the official source for all candidates.
-result-ro25r1-nicusor-dan,elec-ro-pres-2025-r1,national,ROU,Romania,Presidential election,Nicușor Dan,independent,,1979767,0.209937378278,2,advanced,,CCR_confirmed_and_validated,complete_national_contest,off-ro-2025-r1-aep-final,2026-08-12,Top-three extract; consult the official source for all candidates.
-result-ro25r1-crin-antonescu,elec-ro-pres-2025-r1,national,ROU,Romania,Presidential election,Crin Antonescu,Electoral Alliance Romania Forward,,1892930,0.200729056229,3,not_advanced,,CCR_confirmed_and_validated,complete_national_contest,off-ro-2025-r1-aep-final,2026-08-12,Top-three extract; consult the official source for all candidates.
+result-ro25r1-george-simion,elec-ro-pres-2025-r1,national,ROU,Romania,Presidential election,George Simion,AUR,,3862761,0.409612806584,1,advanced,,CCR_confirmed_and_validated,complete_national_contest,off-ro-2025-r1-aep-final,2026-08-12,Complete national contest field in this release.
+result-ro25r1-nicusor-dan,elec-ro-pres-2025-r1,national,ROU,Romania,Presidential election,Nicușor Dan,independent,,1979767,0.209937378278,2,advanced,,CCR_confirmed_and_validated,complete_national_contest,off-ro-2025-r1-aep-final,2026-08-12,Complete national contest field in this release.
+result-ro25r1-crin-antonescu,elec-ro-pres-2025-r1,national,ROU,Romania,Presidential election,Crin Antonescu,Electoral Alliance Romania Forward,,1892930,0.200729056229,3,not_advanced,,CCR_confirmed_and_validated,complete_national_contest,off-ro-2025-r1-aep-final,2026-08-12,Complete national contest field in this release.
 result-ro25r2-nicusor-dan,elec-ro-pres-2025-r2,national,ROU,Romania,Presidential election,Nicușor Dan,independent,,6168642,0.536044968171,1,winner,,CCR_confirmed_and_validated,complete,off-ro-2025-r2-aep-final,2026-08-12,Complete two-candidate second-round result.
 result-ro25r2-george-simion,elec-ro-pres-2025-r2,national,ROU,Romania,Presidential election,George Simion,AUR,,5339053,0.463955031829,2,runner_up,,CCR_confirmed_and_validated,complete,off-ro-2025-r2-aep-final,2026-08-12,Complete two-candidate second-round result.
-result-md24r1-maia-sandu,elec-md-pres-2024-r1,national,MDA,Moldova,Presidential election,Maia Sandu,,PAS,656852,0.424863408302,1,advanced,,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2024-pres-r1-xlsx,2026-08-12,Top-three extract; consult the official workbook for all candidates.
-result-md24r1-alexandr-stoianoglo,elec-md-pres-2024-r1,national,MDA,Moldova,Presidential election,Alexandr Stoianoglo,,PSRM,401215,0.259512907568,2,advanced,,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2024-pres-r1-xlsx,2026-08-12,Top-three extract; consult the official workbook for all candidates.
-result-md24r1-renato-usatii,elec-md-pres-2024-r1,national,MDA,Moldova,Presidential election,Renato Usatîi,Our Party,,213169,0.137881452571,3,not_advanced,,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2024-pres-r1-xlsx,2026-08-12,Top-three extract; consult the official workbook for all candidates.
+result-md24r1-maia-sandu,elec-md-pres-2024-r1,national,MDA,Moldova,Presidential election,Maia Sandu,,PAS,656852,0.424863408302,1,advanced,,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2024-pres-r1-xlsx,2026-08-12,Complete national contest field in this release.
+result-md24r1-alexandr-stoianoglo,elec-md-pres-2024-r1,national,MDA,Moldova,Presidential election,Alexandr Stoianoglo,,PSRM,401215,0.259512907568,2,advanced,,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2024-pres-r1-xlsx,2026-08-12,Complete national contest field in this release.
+result-md24r1-renato-usatii,elec-md-pres-2024-r1,national,MDA,Moldova,Presidential election,Renato Usatîi,Our Party,,213169,0.137881452571,3,not_advanced,,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2024-pres-r1-xlsx,2026-08-12,Complete national contest field in this release.
 result-mdref-yes,elec-md-referendum-2024,national,MDA,Moldova,Constitutional referendum,YES,,,749719,0.503547647417,1,approved,,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete,off-md-2024-referendum-xlsx,2026-08-12,Complete referendum result.
 result-mdref-no,elec-md-referendum-2024,national,MDA,Moldova,Constitutional referendum,NO,,,739155,0.496452352583,2,not_approved,,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete,off-md-2024-referendum-xlsx,2026-08-12,Complete referendum result.
-result-md24r2-maia-sandu,elec-md-pres-2024-r2,national,MDA,Moldova,Presidential election,Maia Sandu,PAS,,930139,0.553466712762,1,winner,,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete,off-md-2024-pres-r2-xlsx,2026-08-12,Complete two-candidate second-round result.
-result-md24r2-alexandr-stoianoglo,elec-md-pres-2024-r2,national,MDA,Moldova,Presidential election,Alexandr Stoianoglo,PSRM-supported independent,,750430,0.446533287238,2,runner_up,,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete,off-md-2024-pres-r2-xlsx,2026-08-12,Complete two-candidate second-round result.
-result-mdparl-pas,elec-md-parl-2025,national,MDA,Moldova,Parliamentary election,Partidul Acțiune și Solidaritate (PAS),PAS,,792557,0.502024422286,1,gained_seats,55,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2025-cec-h4151,2026-08-12,Top-five vote extract; consult the official workbook and totalization report for all contestants and seat allocation.
-result-mdparl-patriotic-bloc,elec-md-parl-2025,national,MDA,Moldova,Parliamentary election,"Blocul Electoral Patriotic al Socialiștilor, Comuniștilor, Inima și Viitorul Moldovei",electoral bloc,,381984,0.241957735434,2,gained_seats,26,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2025-cec-h4151,2026-08-12,Top-five vote extract.
-result-mdparl-alternative-bloc,elec-md-parl-2025,national,MDA,Moldova,Parliamentary election,Blocul Electoral Alternativa,electoral bloc,,125706,0.079625165165,3,gained_seats,8,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2025-cec-h4151,2026-08-12,Top-five vote extract.
-result-mdparl-our-party,elec-md-parl-2025,national,MDA,Moldova,Parliamentary election,Partidul Nostru,PN,,97852,0.061981780199,4,gained_seats,6,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2025-cec-h4151,2026-08-12,Top-five vote extract.
-result-mdparl-democracy-at-home,elec-md-parl-2025,national,MDA,Moldova,Parliamentary election,Partidul Democrația Acasă,PPDA,,88679,0.056171384196,5,gained_seats,6,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2025-cec-h4151,2026-08-12,Top-five vote extract.
+result-md24r2-maia-sandu,elec-md-pres-2024-r2,national,MDA,Moldova,Presidential election,Maia Sandu,,PAS,930139,0.553466712762,1,winner,,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete,off-md-2024-pres-r2-xlsx,2026-08-12,Complete two-candidate second-round result.
+result-md24r2-alexandr-stoianoglo,elec-md-pres-2024-r2,national,MDA,Moldova,Presidential election,Alexandr Stoianoglo,,PSRM,750430,0.446533287238,2,runner_up,,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete,off-md-2024-pres-r2-xlsx,2026-08-12,Complete two-candidate second-round result.
+result-mdparl-pas,elec-md-parl-2025,national,MDA,Moldova,Parliamentary election,Partidul Acțiune și Solidaritate (PAS),PAS,,792557,0.502024422286,1,gained_seats,55,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2025-cec-h4151,2026-08-12,Complete national contest field in this release; official seats included.
+result-mdparl-patriotic-bloc,elec-md-parl-2025,national,MDA,Moldova,Parliamentary election,"Blocul Electoral Patriotic al Socialiștilor, Comuniștilor, Inima și Viitorul Moldovei",electoral bloc,,381984,0.241957735434,2,gained_seats,26,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2025-cec-h4151,2026-08-12,Complete national contest field in this release; official seats included.
+result-mdparl-alternative-bloc,elec-md-parl-2025,national,MDA,Moldova,Parliamentary election,Blocul Electoral Alternativa,electoral bloc,,125706,0.079625165165,3,gained_seats,8,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2025-cec-h4151,2026-08-12,Complete national contest field in this release; official seats included.
+result-mdparl-our-party,elec-md-parl-2025,national,MDA,Moldova,Parliamentary election,Partidul Nostru,PN,,97852,0.061981780199,4,gained_seats,6,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2025-cec-h4151,2026-08-12,Complete national contest field in this release; official seats included.
+result-mdparl-democracy-at-home,elec-md-parl-2025,national,MDA,Moldova,Parliamentary election,Partidul Democrația Acasă,PPDA,,88679,0.056171384196,5,gained_seats,6,CEC_final_and_Constitutional_Court_confirmed,complete_national_contest,off-md-2025-cec-h4151,2026-08-12,Complete national contest field in this release; official seats included.
 result-nh24-biden-write-in,elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024,state,US-NH,New Hampshire,Democratic presidential primary,Joe Biden (write-in),Democratic,,79100,0.637923803994,1,winner,,final,partial,off-nh-2024-dem-results,2026-08-12,"Biden was a write-in and is absent from the printed-candidate workbook. Share denominator is 123,996 presidential votes, not total Democratic ballots cast."
 result-nh24-dean-phillips,elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024,state,US-NH,New Hampshire,Democratic presidential primary,Dean Phillips,Democratic,,24377,0.196595051453,2,not_selected,,final,partial,off-nh-2024-dem-results,2026-08-12,"Printed candidate. Share denominator is 123,996 presidential votes."
 result-nh24-marianne-williamson,elec-us-nh-dem-primary-2024,state,US-NH,New Hampshire,Democratic presidential primary,Marianne Williamson,Democratic,,5016,0.040452917836,3,not_selected,,final,partial,off-nh-2024-dem-results,2026-08-12,"Printed candidate. Share denominator is 123,996 presidential votes."

data/research_view.csv

@@ -4,8 +4,8 @@ ata-ro25,ro-2025-presidential-repeat,Romania 2025 repeat presidential election a
 ata-md24,md-2024-presidential-referendum,Moldova 2024 presidential election and EU referendum: hybrid interference network,Moldova,2024-10-20,election_wide_case,retrospective,mixed_documented_manipulation,confirmed,mixed,unknown: synthetic impersonation tools,Ilan Shor-linked network and alleged Russian sponsors; coordinated account operators; platforms,"payments, messaging apps, spoofed media, bots, coordinated accounts, synthetic video","Moldovan voters, including linguistic minorities and diaspora",preference_participation_and_trust,partial_chain_observed,foreign-linked political-finance and influence networks,"4,200 followers; platform_reported; unknown; at_takedown_2024-10-11 | 335,000 followers; platform_reported; unknown; at_takedown_2024-10-11",indicated,unknown,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,"How many recipients acted on payments? Which synthetic pieces achieved material exposure? What portion of the network was centrally directed? What vote effect, if any, occurred?",2026-08-11
 ata-md25,md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,Moldova 2025 parliamentary election: continuation of hybrid influence infrastructure,Moldova,2025-09-28,observed_network,retrospective,manipulation_confirmed,confirmed,mixed,"unknown: AI videos, bots and platform recommendation systems",foreign-funded political and influence networks,"social platforms, messaging apps, illicit finance, synthetic and spoofed media",Moldovan voters,authorship_agenda_and_peer_signal,mechanism_observed_effect_unknown,network curators and financiers,"253 accounts; researcher_measured; not_applicable; study_window | 28,708 posts; researcher_measured; not_applicable; study_window",unknown,unknown,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,"Which 2024 network components persisted, which were newly created, and which shared command? What was authentic in-country exposure? Which interventions worked?",2026-08-11
 ata-nh,us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,New Hampshire 2024 AI-cloned Biden robocall,United States,2024-01-23,observed_incident,retrospective,manipulation_confirmed,confirmed,core_generation,ElevenLabs: AI voice-cloning service,Steve Kramer and telecom distribution providers,"AI voice cloning, caller-ID spoofing, mass robocalls",New Hampshire Democratic primary voters,authorship_relevance_and_participation_instruction,mechanism_observed_effect_unknown,political operator and telecom chain,"9,581 call_attempts; provider_records_in_enforcement; unknown; campaign_window | 3,978 completed_calls; provider_records_in_enforcement; unknown; campaign_window",unknown,unknown,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,"How many recipients listened, believed, or acted on the call? How should liability be allocated across creator, intermediary, and originating provider?",2026-08-11
-ata-brprep,br-2026-election-preparedness,Brazil 2026 general election: AI governance and integrity preparedness,Brazil,2026-10-04,preparedness_file,ongoing,preparedness_not_incident,confirmed,mixed,not identified or not applicable,"campaigns, AI providers, platforms, election authorities, and unidentified influence actors","synthetic media, recommender outputs, political advertising, bots, voice cloning, platform distribution",Brazilian voters,future_information_and_platform_governance,not_an_incident,"potential campaigns, providers and platforms constrained by TSE",No typed population-reach estimate,unknown,unknown,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,Will providers comply in practice? How quickly will labelled and unlabelled content be detected and adjudicated? Will rules apply consistently across closed messaging and AI assistants?,2026-08-11
+ata-brprep,br-2026-election-preparedness,Brazil 2026 general election: AI governance and integrity preparedness,Brazil,2026-10-04,preparedness_file,ongoing,preparedness_not_incident,confirmed,mixed,"unknown_or_multiple: generative AI, recommender and disclosure-compliance systems","campaigns, AI providers, platforms, election authorities, and unidentified influence actors","synthetic media, recommender outputs, political advertising, bots, voice cloning, platform distribution",Brazilian voters,future_information_and_platform_governance,not_an_incident,"potential campaigns, providers and platforms constrained by TSE",No typed population-reach estimate,unknown,unknown,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,Will providers comply in practice? How quickly will labelled and unlabelled content be detected and adjudicated? Will rules apply consistently across closed messaging and AI assistants?,2026-08-11
 ata-bravatar,br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,Brazil 2026 Bolsonaro AI avatar at Flávio Bolsonaro campaign launch,Brazil,2026-10-04,observed_incident,ongoing,transparent_contested_use,confirmed,core_generation,unknown: synthetic image-and-voice avatar system,Flávio Bolsonaro campaign or allied producer; authorisation by Jair Bolsonaro unresolved,disclosed synthetic image and voice presented as an endorsement,Brazilian voters and campaign attendees,political_presence_and_endorsement,mechanism_observed_effect_unknown,campaign producer,No typed population-reach estimate,unknown,unknown,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,Who authorised and scripted the avatar? Does a labelled clone circumvent communication restrictions? How will TSE distinguish transparent simulation from manipulative synthetic representation?,2026-08-11
-ata-usprep,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,United States 2026 midterm election: fragmented AI governance and preparedness,United States,2026-11-03,preparedness_file,ongoing,preparedness_not_incident,confirmed,mixed,not identified or not applicable,"campaigns, political committees, foreign influence actors, platforms, telecom and AI providers","synthetic ads, voice and video impersonation, recommender distribution, robocalls, coordinated influence",United States voters,future_information_and_election_trust,not_an_incident,potential campaigns and infrastructure providers,No typed population-reach estimate,unknown,unknown,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,How will state rules apply across jurisdictions? Will disclosures be salient? Which foreign or domestic networks will achieve measurable reach? Can authentic communications remain verifiable?,2026-08-11
-ata-usads,us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,United States 2026 campaign-produced synthetic candidate ads,United States,2026-11-03,observed_campaign_set,ongoing,mixed_documented_manipulation,confirmed,core_generation,unknown: campaign video-generation and face/voice synthesis tools,National Republican Senatorial Committee and individual campaigns; additional actors may be added,AI-generated political video distributed as campaign advertising and social content,voters in contested federal and state races,candidate_voice_face_and_affect,mechanism_observed_effect_unknown,campaign sponsors and distributors,"3,700 views; platform_snapshot; unknown; snapshot_2026-08-11",unknown,unknown,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,Were disclosures noticed? What impressions and targeting occurred? Do viewers distinguish quotation from fabricated audiovisual evidence? What legal rules apply in each state?,2026-08-11
+ata-usprep,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,United States 2026 midterm election: fragmented AI governance and preparedness,United States,2026-11-03,preparedness_file,ongoing,preparedness_not_incident,confirmed,mixed,"unknown_or_multiple: generative AI, synthetic-media, platform and telecom systems","campaigns, political committees, foreign influence actors, platforms, telecom and AI providers","synthetic ads, voice and video impersonation, recommender distribution, robocalls, coordinated influence",United States voters,future_information_and_election_trust,not_an_incident,potential campaigns and infrastructure providers,31 states_with_enacted_political_deepfake_laws; legislative_tracker_count; not_applicable; snapshot_2026-06-23,unknown,unknown,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,How will state rules apply across jurisdictions? Will disclosures be salient? Which foreign or domestic networks will achieve measurable reach? Can authentic communications remain verifiable?,2026-08-11
+ata-usads,us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,United States 2026 campaign-produced synthetic candidate ads,United States,2026-11-03,observed_campaign_set,ongoing,mixed_documented_manipulation,confirmed,core_generation,unknown: campaign video-generation and face/voice synthesis tools,National Republican Senatorial Committee and individual campaigns; additional actors may be added,AI-generated political video distributed as campaign advertising and social content,voters in contested federal and state races,candidate_voice_face_and_affect,mechanism_observed_effect_unknown,campaign sponsors and distributors,"3 synthetic_ads_identified_in_reporting; independent_reporting_content_count; not_applicable; reporting_through_2026-03-28 | 3,700 views; platform_snapshot; unknown; snapshot_2026-08-11",unknown,unknown,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,Were disclosures noticed? What impressions and targeting occurred? Do viewers distinguish quotation from fabricated audiovisual evidence? What legal rules apply in each state?,2026-08-11
 ata-usca11,us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,California 11th District: campaign-controlled Connie Chan parody chatbot,United States,2026-11-03,observed_incident,ongoing,transparent_contested_use,confirmed,core_generation,Anthropic: Claude | Amazon Web Services|Google: hosting and analytics stack,Scott Wiener for Congress campaign; technical constructor unidentified,"interactive first-person opponent simulation, campaign-selected issue framing, web interface, billboards, and earned media",California 11th District voters and politically interested web visitors; Connie Chan as represented person,representation_agenda_query_privacy_and_candidate_evaluation,mechanism_observed_effect_unknown,campaign deployer; secondarily model and infrastructure providers,"5,058 submitted_questions; campaign_reported; unknown; first_27_hours | 2 billboards; campaign_reported; not_applicable; August_2026",unknown,unknown,high_for_occurrence_mixed_for_effect,"Which Claude version and deployment route were used? Who built the system? What sources, system prompt, retrieval method, and guardrails controlled answers? How many unique people interacted, from where, and with what effects?",2026-08-12

data/stats.json

@@ -9,20 +9,20 @@
   "official_elections": 11,
   "official_turnout": 9,
   "official_results": 68,
-  "official_data_sources": 30,
+  "official_data_sources": 31,
   "official_election_metrics": 58,
   "research_view": 10,
   "case_catalog": 64,
-  "case_actors": 14,
-  "technology_uses": 9,
+  "case_actors": 16,
+  "technology_uses": 11,
   "content_items": 4,
   "pathways": 10,
-  "observations": 18,
+  "observations": 24,
   "model_evaluations": 7,
   "claim_evidence": 162,
-  "analytic_record_claims": 216,
+  "analytic_record_claims": 234,
   "case_elections": 15,
-  "election_sources": 33,
+  "election_sources": 35,
   "sampling_frame": 7,
   "coverage_summary": 7,
   "_integrity": {
@@ -30,38 +30,38 @@
       "research/seed.json": "6f45bc2c1d20b91903fd8aacab1b14deb37382e1736835e8da1cb58fa4abc79a",
       "research/candidates.json": "6586ccee4ac720620995e7287e4976c9fca3303595b3cb8875727fbd0a4c9df8",
       "research/europe_candidates.json": "1cd6f4b4ff119316ff885623151b085c919f5a8984e082d4ff482eea84005f0c",
-      "research/official_electoral_data.json": "270e6513a122652d4083c06709e3e4242b8cf2f14b63d6d901c81c8029726007",
-      "research/v0.3_extensions.json": "a6559f8f83897ab304a3acbdc0577a02bd31cbca51b9ba967ad74e958ac0a829"
+      "research/official_electoral_data.json": "7e6789f7f097e563e9590287f6b08a0494445a5bc668b865de0ce04b0927025f",
+      "research/v0.3_extensions.json": "0fa8a7829647d1cadf48dd67cc51269e27ccb15fa3389cbe14388b86114594d0"
     },
     "file_sha256": {
       "cases.csv": "5f8b16b1c802919d6e409bfa18916e3ef01550f653302a90f7fa1c19345d041f",
       "claims.csv": "f84b6fab66396425e7b44b3185416d016efe087980bd0b97a0b7c5019e337a71",
       "sources.csv": "087060a13c36aa4c8adad9738ed3c4fe0c067eb391074e0a2ffbdeadf7128d6b",
       "events.csv": "46f957f4d8fa06a59d2a9463d3d593b916186bb9dd2cbfd8513430ecc52f27ce",
-      "case_sources.csv": "d55ea412ee830b31a737b259bd7c9671f831c1bc6608286cef0e556fab60779f",
+      "case_sources.csv": "5bbbf61cd2bdbdfad8ba8fa308e6718322f2bb52a608deff2112ba6e560fe7ce",
       "watchlist.csv": "de372b4065912da610674421f41dc4fc04f5cc164ff7351ead2512b7e52f7d1a",
       "candidates.csv": "308f5755bdff6da1daea1caca11e2ad8e54f8716b09ac383f2726cb6e60e6ed8",
-      "official_elections.csv": "9f36f29cf372068d6ef80b1e5338e8e242b8ceb0b785c455bf9de76818250c4d",
+      "official_elections.csv": "df299006b5625d116dfb49fd1b3e4ffdeeab7acf4113e04f2ae1555f8798c0ec",
       "official_turnout.csv": "5233c98be0e5e8435bc7313b26578381feec3ae9020aab8b52d244a3874a164b",
-      "official_results.csv": "9c4638c6bcd54d805888876fbdd711c172d114052ef2d5412608840b3cdb6702",
-      "official_data_sources.csv": "0b531d6431b49a1c8f2fa27f3c0965b4bcf94afadf4463d0289134ab5123e35e",
+      "official_results.csv": "ccbb69d262c27d137981a08997b10dccf229fd66d21a40b1f4d9008f32a1cf8d",
+      "official_data_sources.csv": "68fa74fc6990c0ccd10f8cbe2406bdc4ecd1b6938835a1d747e6ce9c02cd6e02",
       "official_election_metrics.csv": "6c5bb956acb6a8d51a335fac5df1aa21b1db1c46e32e4533410ee8b47dcefc4c",
-      "research_view.csv": "2a121a58327dadcfa7c857ee886bd75d24afee6af37283cdd3e588d2caf3decd",
-      "case_catalog.csv": "f2c5c3e080dbde1867d7afc7f6a2764bd045f9e6639141d72fff0075a45788d8",
-      "case_actors.csv": "8cb713d057ea14b764e0aa10c8ffdc5253b103974f0b47ba3fd6571a0bbbd00a",
-      "technology_uses.csv": "6bafcac0e741c91ccf79b2d2fe27d19aa68ba6abe558105259d9610a288f560c",
+      "research_view.csv": "99ce7abfd3fa4a4e2edddd18a325f8b4eb7ab7475b54980d709811cb6bc2e669",
+      "case_catalog.csv": "fb903bb6b9e3c4f37486e4a7308ed94ee9cb495e29915566d6e1f2258ab3d7b3",
+      "case_actors.csv": "6cab05a9c8003056777f1f069628788278911cc4657f4051bde2dab0fbcab684",
+      "technology_uses.csv": "2c888eda9c9c27e9aca0d9eaac81ca0aa1993111e1049643b18208a34088916b",
       "content_items.csv": "b0a414c43ff8ac2eb2028c5167c6fa4289f48d1ab853aa32e0d0559821c12548",
       "pathways.csv": "eddfed2c0c38f381ad05297f9a436a7a9133a30a63a094ee738aa3ddb9b75e97",
-      "observations.csv": "3ff70ba36925904b88d04a8765e5c8cec42853e80adef113ec0366bcd41f5c8e",
+      "observations.csv": "b763f02c096e4c704219f45b043ac7009295600691d7159443514cf9bf5f3fb2",
       "model_evaluations.csv": "531719c36c01aacea0d2e89a50540042b4e55859ca653920af5585810b2a4b6b",
       "claim_evidence.csv": "24546a83455d0f573ad1466d711fe750ef2d24f094c0b132ab643e13f792c7d8",
-      "analytic_record_claims.csv": "8d9517a61301a047e4a6da97540688914e3c5153cdc45c51ac57680ca10b2d7e",
+      "analytic_record_claims.csv": "6762fe9087707fb2df0bf62ca0d51b40cc93081620e1ab7ae14c2a56dbfe5349",
       "case_elections.csv": "f393a0bb79918c7b159aef1e0ede3eb647fa1eb42ed81ca88c2a6a0545e590ea",
-      "election_sources.csv": "d97d6df3de5c9d1da65988ab2fa96d0f13500b5158095dfafa7ebf995771198f",
+      "election_sources.csv": "2cffaa3b0f10ceac9ca889f5faf41f22993402fe7f5aacdfd1d6dbad5375f2dc",
       "sampling_frame.csv": "cfa4899235107203c0d28134974b6da240fd4fef39a5a0643fd52a2742a462b7",
       "coverage_summary.csv": "9c4df5b4346855c370e65f5d3feeef4c51ff9d055e44bbfd0c530cc4091e419c",
       "schema.json": "7f1b2af699bac1897663d21174c0cab997f387fa0e61f1980d81c84c65bf7052",
-      "datapackage.json": "65b64d602bb5ead236825fc8aeb41090f01b48fd29ae91aba34864377f684843"
+      "datapackage.json": "700e4637bdae588f70a30918a0444b93a287af61d6785c73cbc6a529e79dd9aa"
     }
   }
 }

data/technology_uses.csv

@@ -4,7 +4,9 @@ tech-ro25-avatars,ro-2025-presidential-repeat,unknown,DreamFace- or D-ID-style a
 tech-md24-genai,md-2024-presidential-referendum,unknown,synthetic impersonation tools,unknown,unknown,supporting_content_generation,confirmed,observer_and_investigation_records,established_evidence,clm-md-006,AI was one layer within a predominantly non-AI hybrid operation.
 tech-md25-mixed,md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network,unknown,"AI videos, bots and platform recommendation systems",unknown,mixed_unknown,generation_and_amplification,confirmed,observer_and_technical_investigation,established_evidence,clm-md-012|clm-md-015|clm-md-017,Exact models and automation stack are unknown.
 tech-nh-voice,us-nh-2024-biden-robocall,ElevenLabs,AI voice-cloning service,unknown,hosted_proprietary,voice_generation,confirmed,creator_reporting,established_evidence,clm-nh-001|clm-nh-003,Provider identification is supported by creator reporting; the FCC orders establish artificial voice but do not name every tool in the production chain.
+tech-brprep-aggregate,br-2026-election-preparedness,unknown_or_multiple,"generative AI, recommender and disclosure-compliance systems",unknown,mixed_unknown,prospective_generation_ranking_and_compliance,regulated_or_monitored_not_case_deployment,regulatory_scope_and_preparedness_sources,established_evidence,clm-br-002|clm-br-003|clm-br-004|clm-br-005|clm-br-006|clm-br-007,"Aggregate preparedness row. The rules establish covered capabilities, providers and response duties, not an exact model, provider stack or specific manipulative deployment."
 tech-br-avatar,br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar,unknown,synthetic image-and-voice avatar system,unknown,unknown,avatar_generation,confirmed,content_and_reporting,established_evidence,clm-br-010|clm-br-011,The public record does not identify the model or provider.
+tech-usprep-aggregate,us-2026-midterms-preparedness,unknown_or_multiple,"generative AI, synthetic-media, platform and telecom systems",unknown,mixed_unknown,prospective_generation_distribution_and_telecom,prior_cycle_observed_current_cycle_monitored,official_risk_assessment_legislative_tracker_and_prior_cycle_records,established_evidence,clm-us26-002|clm-us26-003|clm-us26-004|clm-us26-005|clm-us26-006,"Aggregate preparedness row. The evidence establishes regulation, prior-cycle use and monitored capability categories; it does not identify an exact model, provider stack or new 2026 operation."
 tech-us26-ads,us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads,unknown,campaign video-generation and face/voice synthesis tools,unknown,unknown,synthetic_video_generation,confirmed,campaign_artifact_and_reporting,established_evidence,clm-us26-008|clm-us26-011|clm-us26-014,Do not infer a frontier-model provider from output appearance.
 tech-usca11-claude,us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,Anthropic,Claude,unknown,closed_hosted_product,interactive_text_generation,confirmed,campaign_statement_and_direct_observation,established_evidence,clm-usca11-003|clm-usca11-004,"Exact model, API or consumer route, system prompt, retrieval, context and safety settings were not disclosed."
 tech-usca11-stack,us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot,Amazon Web Services|Google,hosting and analytics stack,unknown,commercial_infrastructure,hosting_analytics_and_data_capture,reported,privacy_policy,established_evidence,clm-usca11-007,Infrastructure listing does not establish which service saw which fields.