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Datasets:
SimpleFunctions
/
calibration-scorecards

Modalities:
Tabular
Text
Languages:
English
Size:
< 1K
Tags:
prediction-markets
calibration
brier-score
log-loss
forecasting
License:
Dataset card Data Studio Files
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1
calibration-scorecards
File size: 2,520 Bytes
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{
  "month": "2026-05",
  "count": 306880,
  "mean_brier": 0.0177,
  "mean_log_loss": 0.0705,
  "by_venue": [
    {
      "venue": "kalshi",
      "count": 189800,
      "mean_brier": 0.0121,
      "mean_log_loss": 0.0525
    },
    {
      "venue": "polymarket",
      "count": 117080,
      "mean_brier": 0.0268,
      "mean_log_loss": 0.0996
    }
  ],
  "by_category": [
    {
      "category": "Sports",
      "count": 137679,
      "mean_brier": 0.0157
    },
    {
      "category": "Crypto",
      "count": 51836,
      "mean_brier": 0.0098
    },
    {
      "category": "Up or Down",
      "count": 44755,
      "mean_brier": 0.0259
    },
    {
      "category": "Weather",
      "count": 9581,
      "mean_brier": 0.0016
    },
    {
      "category": "Climate and Weather",
      "count": 7725,
      "mean_brier": 0.0069
    },
    {
      "category": "Tennis",
      "count": 6794,
      "mean_brier": 0.0584
    },
    {
      "category": "Esports",
      "count": 6141,
      "mean_brier": 0.046
    },
    {
      "category": "Mentions",
      "count": 5912,
      "mean_brier": 0.0023
    },
    {
      "category": "Crypto Prices",
      "count": 5542,
      "mean_brier": 0.0226
    },
    {
      "category": "Financials",
      "count": 3923,
      "mean_brier": 0.034
    }
  ],
  "calibration_buckets": [
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0,
      "bucket_hi": 0.1,
      "count": 149393,
      "actual_rate": 0.0018
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.1,
      "bucket_hi": 0.2,
      "count": 9038,
      "actual_rate": 0.0117
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.2,
      "bucket_hi": 0.3,
      "count": 5377,
      "actual_rate": 0.0219
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.3,
      "bucket_hi": 0.4,
      "count": 3965,
      "actual_rate": 0.0454
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.4,
      "bucket_hi": 0.5,
      "count": 3619,
      "actual_rate": 0.0448
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.5,
      "bucket_hi": 0.6,
      "count": 2944,
      "actual_rate": 0.0853
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.6,
      "bucket_hi": 0.7,
      "count": 1363,
      "actual_rate": 0.1724
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.7,
      "bucket_hi": 0.8,
      "count": 1109,
      "actual_rate": 0.3472
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.8,
      "bucket_hi": 0.9,
      "count": 1167,
      "actual_rate": 0.587
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.9,
      "bucket_hi": 1,
      "count": 128905,
      "actual_rate": 0.9906
    }
  ],
  "filter": {
    "min_volume": 100
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-08-10T06:50:24.829Z"
}