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Datasets:
SimpleFunctions
/
calibration-scorecards

Modalities:
Tabular
Text
Languages:
English
Size:
< 1K
Tags:
prediction-markets
calibration
brier-score
log-loss
forecasting
License:
Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
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1
calibration-scorecards
File size: 2,381 Bytes
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{
  "month": "2026-03",
  "count": 52881,
  "mean_brier": 0.0154,
  "mean_log_loss": 0.063,
  "by_venue": [
    {
      "venue": "kalshi",
      "count": 52881,
      "mean_brier": 0.0154,
      "mean_log_loss": 0.063
    }
  ],
  "by_category": [
    {
      "category": "Sports",
      "count": 29819,
      "mean_brier": 0.0171
    },
    {
      "category": "Crypto",
      "count": 14951,
      "mean_brier": 0.0115
    },
    {
      "category": "Mentions",
      "count": 2590,
      "mean_brier": 0.0025
    },
    {
      "category": "Financials",
      "count": 2058,
      "mean_brier": 0.0441
    },
    {
      "category": "Climate and Weather",
      "count": 1348,
      "mean_brier": 0.0039
    },
    {
      "category": "Entertainment",
      "count": 1013,
      "mean_brier": 0.012
    },
    {
      "category": "Elections",
      "count": 456,
      "mean_brier": 0.0036
    },
    {
      "category": "Politics",
      "count": 269,
      "mean_brier": 0.0107
    },
    {
      "category": "Economics",
      "count": 263,
      "mean_brier": 0.0483
    },
    {
      "category": "Social",
      "count": 58,
      "mean_brier": 0.0003
    }
  ],
  "calibration_buckets": [
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0,
      "bucket_hi": 0.1,
      "count": 27332,
      "actual_rate": 0.0022
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.1,
      "bucket_hi": 0.2,
      "count": 1343,
      "actual_rate": 0.0246
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.2,
      "bucket_hi": 0.3,
      "count": 693,
      "actual_rate": 0.0505
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.3,
      "bucket_hi": 0.4,
      "count": 505,
      "actual_rate": 0.0515
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.4,
      "bucket_hi": 0.5,
      "count": 417,
      "actual_rate": 0.0959
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.5,
      "bucket_hi": 0.6,
      "count": 327,
      "actual_rate": 0.2049
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.6,
      "bucket_hi": 0.7,
      "count": 256,
      "actual_rate": 0.3477
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.7,
      "bucket_hi": 0.8,
      "count": 235,
      "actual_rate": 0.4936
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.8,
      "bucket_hi": 0.9,
      "count": 385,
      "actual_rate": 0.6987
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.9,
      "bucket_hi": 1,
      "count": 21388,
      "actual_rate": 0.9928
    }
  ],
  "filter": {
    "min_volume": 100
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-08-09T06:50:27.404Z"
}