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Datasets:
SimpleFunctions
/
calibration-scorecards

Modalities:
Tabular
Text
Languages:
English
Size:
< 1K
Tags:
prediction-markets
calibration
brier-score
log-loss
forecasting
License:
Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
calibration-scorecards
File size: 2,300 Bytes
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{
  "month": "2026-02",
  "count": 1348,
  "mean_brier": 0.0039,
  "mean_log_loss": 0.0271,
  "by_venue": [
    {
      "venue": "kalshi",
      "count": 1348,
      "mean_brier": 0.0039,
      "mean_log_loss": 0.0271
    }
  ],
  "by_category": [
    {
      "category": "Mentions",
      "count": 534,
      "mean_brier": 0.0002
    },
    {
      "category": "Entertainment",
      "count": 238,
      "mean_brier": 0.012
    },
    {
      "category": "Politics",
      "count": 166,
      "mean_brier": 0.0021
    },
    {
      "category": "Sports",
      "count": 122,
      "mean_brier": 0.0088
    },
    {
      "category": "Elections",
      "count": 118,
      "mean_brier": 0.0009
    },
    {
      "category": "Companies",
      "count": 86,
      "mean_brier": 0.0004
    },
    {
      "category": "Crypto",
      "count": 21,
      "mean_brier": 0.0281
    },
    {
      "category": "Economics",
      "count": 19,
      "mean_brier": 0.0009
    },
    {
      "category": "Financials",
      "count": 17,
      "mean_brier": 0.0015
    },
    {
      "category": "Social",
      "count": 14,
      "mean_brier": 0.0006
    }
  ],
  "calibration_buckets": [
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0,
      "bucket_hi": 0.1,
      "count": 759,
      "actual_rate": 0
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.1,
      "bucket_hi": 0.2,
      "count": 17,
      "actual_rate": 0
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.2,
      "bucket_hi": 0.3,
      "count": 10,
      "actual_rate": 0
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.3,
      "bucket_hi": 0.4,
      "count": 3,
      "actual_rate": 0
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.4,
      "bucket_hi": 0.5,
      "count": 2,
      "actual_rate": 0.5
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.5,
      "bucket_hi": 0.6,
      "count": 1,
      "actual_rate": 0
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.6,
      "bucket_hi": 0.7,
      "count": 4,
      "actual_rate": 0.75
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.7,
      "bucket_hi": 0.8,
      "count": 1,
      "actual_rate": 1
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.8,
      "bucket_hi": 0.9,
      "count": 8,
      "actual_rate": 1
    },
    {
      "bucket_lo": 0.9,
      "bucket_hi": 1,
      "count": 543,
      "actual_rate": 0.9963
    }
  ],
  "filter": {
    "min_volume": 100
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-08-09T06:50:27.711Z"
}