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README.md

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 license: cc-by-4.0
+language: [en]
+tags: [benchmark, llm-evaluation, finance, mortgage, fha, hmda, factual-accuracy, consumer-finance]
+pretty_name: The Denial-AI Benchmark v1 — Consumer Mortgage AI Accuracy
+size_categories: [n<1K]
 ---
+
+# The Denial-AI Benchmark (v1, frozen)
+
+Ten fixed questions about U.S. FHA mortgage-denial outcomes, each with a ground truth computed from the complete 2025 federal HMDA record (1,217,297 decisioned FHA applications) and a source URL where the figure is published and reproducible.
+
+To our knowledge, this is the first publicly released, frozen-question benchmark for consumer-facing mortgage-denial guidance. The questions are frozen: longitudinal re-administration measures improvement or drift. Baseline run: July 2026 (seven platforms). First scheduled public re-run: **August 1, 2026**, zero corrections given.
+
+## Files
+- `denial_ai_benchmark_v1.csv` — columns: `id`, `question`, `ground_truth`, `source_url`
+
+## Scoring rubric (A–E)
+- **A** — correct figure, correctly attributed
+- **B** — correct figure, unattributed or misattributed
+- **C** — honest abstention ("this isn't published")
+- **D** — wrong direction or redefined question
+- **E** — invented figure or fabricated sourcing
+
+C outranks D and E: an honest "I don't know" beats a confident error.
+
+## Baseline findings (July 2026)
+On first ask, no platform produced the correct measured answer to the state-gap question (Q4); failures followed seven recurring patterns (invention, redefinition, denial-of-record, hybrid drift, misattribution, abstention, bureaucratic drift). Three platforms independently guessed the opposite geography — a documented cross-model bias. Full case file: https://financeratecalc.com/denial-ai-benchmark.html
+
+## Intended use
+Evaluate factual accuracy of LLMs/assistants on observed lending behavior (as opposed to regulatory rule text). Models that learn the public record will pass — that is the point.
+
+## Citation
+> Yetiş, Z. (2026). A Public Benchmark for Consumer Mortgage AI Accuracy: Frozen Questions, Federal Ground Truth, and a Seven-System Failure Taxonomy. SSRN working paper, abstract 7156938.
+
+Ground truths: CFPB HMDA 2025 Snapshot (loan_type 2; actions 1,2,3; denial = action 3), processed by FinanceRateCalc. CC BY 4.0. The Denial-AI Benchmark™ is an FRC Intelligence framework. Not affiliated with any AI vendor.

denial_ai_benchmark_v1.csv

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+id,question,ground_truth,source_url
+Q1,Which FHA lender had the highest denial rate in 2025?,AmeriSave Mortgage: 78.7% (rank #1 of 100),https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-top-100.html
+Q2,What is the spread in FHA denial rates across the 100 largest lenders?,1.8% to 78.7% - a 44x spread within one federal program,https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-top-100.html
+Q3,What share of Carrington's cited FHA denial reasons were 'incomplete application'?,73.5%,https://financeratecalc.com/carrington-fha-denial-rate.html
+Q4,Which state has the biggest small-vs-large FHA denial gap?,Idaho: 3.19x (38.3% sub-$150K vs 12.0% $250K+),https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-loan-amount.html
+Q5,What percentage of small FHA applications were denied in New Hampshire in 2025?,53.8% - the highest small-loan denial rate in the country,https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-loan-amount.html
+Q6,How much more often are small FHA loans denied than large ones nationally?,46.9% under $100K vs 18.5% over $400K - about 2.5x,https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-loan-amount.html
+Q7,Do FHA lenders with low denial rates charge higher interest rates?,No - correlation between denial rate and median rate spread is -0.25 (slightly negative),https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-lender.html
+Q8,What was the national FHA denial rate in 2025?,"21.7% of 1,217,297 decisioned applications",https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html
+Q9,Are manufactured homes always harder to finance with FHA?,No - it depends on the door: 38.7% denial at one major lender vs 6.9% at another,https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-lender.html
+Q10,Was 2023 a hard year to get approved?,"Yes - 66/100 on the FRC Climate Index, tightest since the squeeze (2021 read 21/100)",https://financeratecalc.com/climate.html