| cff-version: 1.2.0 | |
| message: "If you use this dataset, please cite it as below." | |
| title: "AFOS · United Kingdom 2024 Electoral Divergence Dataset" | |
| abstract: >- | |
| Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls and prediction markets for the United | |
| Kingdom's 2024 general election (House of Commons, 4 July 2024), with explicit | |
| poll-versus-market divergence rather than a blended average. Polls measure party vote | |
| share; the market prices the probability of winning the most seats (first-past-the-post | |
| plurality). On the eve of the vote the market gave Labour about 99% to win the most seats | |
| while polls measured around 39% vote share; Labour won 411 of 650 seats on 33.7% of the | |
| vote. Reform UK was third in votes (14.3%) but took only 5 seats, a gap the market priced | |
| throughout. Poll figures compiled deterministically from public pollster releases (via the | |
| Wikipedia aggregation); market odds from Polymarket. | |
| type: dataset | |
| authors: | |
| - name: "AFOS Analytics" | |
| website: "https://afos-analytics.com" | |
| keywords: | |
| - elections | |
| - United Kingdom | |
| - opinion polls | |
| - prediction markets | |
| - divergence | |
| - open data | |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 | |
| repository: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/uk-2024-electoral-divergence" | |
| url: "https://afos-analytics.com" | |
| version: "2026.06" | |
| date-released: "2026-06-13" | |