/**
 * Busca as odds do Polymarket do mercado "Peru Presidential Election Winner" e calcula a
 * divergência mercado × pesquisa por candidato/data. RODA NUM RUNNER (GitHub Actions): o
 * gamma-api/clob da Polymarket NÃO resolvem localmente, mas resolvem no runner (como o
 * proxy AFOS no Vercel). Isolado do pipeline do Brasil.
 *
 * Saída:
 *   data/peru-market-odds-timeseries.csv   (date, candidate, polymarket_pct, volume_usd)
 *   data/peru-divergence-timeseries.csv     (poll_date, pollster, candidate, poll_pct, polymarket_pct, polymarket_date, divergence_pp)
 */
import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from 'fs'
import { join } from 'path'

const OUT = join(process.cwd(), 'data'); mkdirSync(OUT, { recursive: true })
const csv = (rows) => rows.map((r) => r.map((v) => { const s = String(v ?? ''); return /[",\n]/.test(s) ? `"${s.replace(/"/g, '""')}"` : s }).join(',')).join('\n') + '\n'
const num = (s) => { const m = String(s).replace(/,/g, '').match(/-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?/); return m ? parseFloat(m[0]) : null }
const j = async (u) => { const r = await fetch(u, { headers: { 'User-Agent': 'AFOS-Analytics/1.0' } }); if (!r.ok) throw new Error(`${r.status} ${u}`); return r.json() }

// surname -> nome canônico (alinha Polymarket groupItemTitle às pesquisas)
const CANON = [['fujimori', 'Keiko Fujimori'], ['sánchez', 'Roberto Sánchez'], ['sanchez', 'Roberto Sánchez'], ['lópez aliaga', 'Rafael López Aliaga'], ['lopez aliaga', 'Rafael López Aliaga'], ['acuña', 'César Acuña'], ['acuna', 'César Acuña'], ['álvarez', 'Carlos Álvarez'], ['alvarez', 'Carlos Álvarez'], ['belmont', 'Ricardo Belmont'], ['nieto', 'Jorge Nieto'], ['lescano', 'Yonhy Lescano'], ['luna', 'José Luna'], ['olivera', 'Fernando Olivera'], ['lópez chau', 'Alfonso López Chau'], ['lopez chau', 'Alfonso López Chau'], ['pérez tello', 'Marisol Pérez Tello']]
const canon = (s) => { const t = String(s || '').toLowerCase(); for (const [k, v] of CANON) if (t.includes(k)) return v; return null }

const SLUG = process.env.PERU_SLUG || 'peru-presidential-election-winner'
console.log(`🌐 buscando evento Polymarket: ${SLUG}`)
const ev = (await j(`https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=${SLUG}&limit=1`))[0]
if (!ev) throw new Error('evento não encontrado')
console.log(`   ${ev.title} | ${ev.markets?.length} mercados | ${ev.startDate?.slice(0, 10)}→${ev.endDate?.slice(0, 10)}`)

// série de odds: para cada candidato, histórico diário do token "Yes"
const odds = [] // {date, candidate, pct, volume}
for (const m of ev.markets || []) {
  const name = canon(m.groupItemTitle || m.question)
  if (!name) continue
  let toks = m.clobTokenIds; if (typeof toks === 'string') toks = JSON.parse(toks)
  const yes = toks?.[0]; if (!yes) continue
  try {
    const hist = await j(`https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=${yes}&interval=max&fidelity=1440`)
    const byDay = new Map()
    for (const pt of hist.history || []) byDay.set(new Date(pt.t * 1000).toISOString().slice(0, 10), pt.p)
    for (const [date, p] of byDay) odds.push({ date, candidate: name, pct: Math.round(p * 1000) / 10, volume: Math.round(m.volumeNum || 0) })
    console.log(`   ✓ ${name}: ${byDay.size} dias`)
  } catch (e) { console.log(`   ⚠️ ${name}: ${e.message}`) }
}
odds.sort((a, b) => a.date === b.date ? b.pct - a.pct : a.date.localeCompare(b.date))
writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'peru-market-odds-timeseries.csv'), csv([['date', 'candidate', 'polymarket_pct', 'volume_usd'], ...odds.map((o) => [o.date, o.candidate, o.pct, o.volume])]))
console.log(`📈 market-odds: ${odds.length} linhas, ${new Set(odds.map((o) => o.date)).size} datas`)

// divergência: cada resultado de pesquisa de 1º turno × odd do candidato na data (nearest on-or-before)
const idx = {}
for (const o of odds) (idx[o.candidate] ||= []).push({ date: o.date, pct: o.pct })
for (const k in idx) idx[k].sort((a, b) => a.date.localeCompare(b.date))
const mAt = (k, d) => { const a = idx[k]; if (!a) return null; let best = null; for (const e of a) { if (e.date <= d) best = e; else break } return best }

const lines = readFileSync(join(process.cwd(), 'polls', 'peru-first-round-polls.csv'), 'utf-8').trim().split('\n').slice(1)
const dv = [['poll_date', 'pollster', 'candidate', 'poll_pct', 'polymarket_pct', 'polymarket_date', 'divergence_pp']]
for (const ln of lines) {
  const c = ln.split(','); const poll_date = c[0], pollster = c[2], candidate = c[4].replace(/^"|"$/g, ''), poll = num(c[6])
  const k = canon(candidate); if (!k || poll == null) continue
  const m = mAt(k, poll_date); if (!m) continue
  dv.push([poll_date, pollster, k, poll, m.pct, m.date, Math.round((m.pct - poll) * 100) / 100])
}
writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'peru-divergence-timeseries.csv'), csv(dv))
console.log(`📊 divergence: ${dv.length - 1} linhas`)