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| import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from 'fs' |
| import { join } from 'path' |
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| const ROOT = process.cwd() |
| const OUT = join(ROOT, 'data'); mkdirSync(OUT, { recursive: true }) |
| const csv = (rows) => rows.map((r) => r.map((v) => { const s = String(v ?? ''); return /[",\n]/.test(s) ? `"${s.replace(/"/g, '""')}"` : s }).join(',')).join('\n') + '\n' |
| const num = (s) => { const m = String(s).replace(/,/g, '').match(/-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?/); return m ? parseFloat(m[0]) : null } |
| |
| const CANON = [['fujimori', 'Keiko Fujimori'], ['sánchez', 'Roberto Sánchez'], ['sanchez', 'Roberto Sánchez'], ['lópez aliaga', 'Rafael López Aliaga'], ['lopez aliaga', 'Rafael López Aliaga'], ['acuña', 'César Acuña'], ['acuna', 'César Acuña'], ['álvarez', 'Carlos Álvarez'], ['alvarez', 'Carlos Álvarez'], ['belmont', 'Ricardo Belmont'], ['nieto', 'Jorge Nieto'], ['lescano', 'Yonhy Lescano'], ['luna', 'José Luna'], ['olivera', 'Fernando Olivera'], ['lópez chau', 'Alfonso López Chau'], ['lopez chau', 'Alfonso López Chau'], ['pérez tello', 'Marisol Pérez Tello'], ['cerrón', 'Vladimir Cerrón'], ['chiabra', 'Roberto Chiabra'], ['valderrama', 'Enrique Valderrama'], ['guevara', 'Mesías Guevara']] |
| const canon = (s) => { const t = String(s || '').toLowerCase(); for (const [k, v] of CANON) if (t.includes(k)) return v; return null } |
| const isoOf = (t) => new Date(t * 1000).toISOString().slice(0, 10) |
| |
| // 1) odds diárias por candidato (último preço do dia) |
| const raw = JSON.parse(readFileSync(join(OUT, 'peru-poly-raw.json'), 'utf-8')) |
| const odds = [] // {date, candidate, pct, volume} |
| for (const m of raw.odds || []) { |
| const name = canon(m.candidate); if (!name || !Array.isArray(m.history) || !m.history.length) continue |
| const byDay = new Map() |
| for (const pt of m.history) byDay.set(isoOf(pt.t), pt.p) |
| for (const [date, p] of byDay) odds.push({ date, candidate: name, pct: Math.round(p * 1000) / 10, volume: Math.round(m.volume || 0) }) |
| } |
| odds.sort((a, b) => a.date === b.date ? b.pct - a.pct : a.date.localeCompare(b.date)) |
| writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'peru-market-odds-timeseries.csv'), csv([['date', 'candidate', 'polymarket_pct', 'volume_usd'], ...odds.map((o) => [o.date, o.candidate, o.pct, o.volume])])) |
| const nd = new Set(odds.map((o) => o.date)).size |
| console.log(`📈 market-odds: ${odds.length} linhas, ${nd} datas, ${new Set(odds.map((o) => o.candidate)).size} candidatos (${raw.startDate?.slice(0, 10)}→${raw.endDate?.slice(0, 10)})`) |
| |
| // 2) divergência: cada resultado de pesquisa de 1º turno × odd do candidato na data (nearest on-or-before) |
| const idx = {} |
| for (const o of odds) (idx[o.candidate] ||= []).push({ date: o.date, pct: o.pct }) |
| for (const k in idx) idx[k].sort((a, b) => a.date.localeCompare(b.date)) |
| const mAt = (k, d) => { const a = idx[k]; if (!a) return null; let best = null; for (const e of a) { if (e.date <= d) best = e; else break } return best } |
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| const lines = readFileSync(join(ROOT, 'polls', 'peru-first-round-polls.csv'), 'utf-8').trim().split('\n').slice(1) |
| const dv = [['poll_date', 'pollster', 'candidate', 'poll_pct', 'polymarket_pct', 'polymarket_date', 'divergence_pp']] |
| let matched = 0 |
| for (const ln of lines) { |
| const c = ln.split(','); const poll_date = c[0], pollster = c[2], candidate = c[4], poll = num(c[6]) |
| const k = canon(candidate); if (!k || poll == null) continue |
| const m = mAt(k, poll_date); if (!m) continue |
| dv.push([poll_date, pollster, k, poll, m.pct, m.date, Math.round((m.pct - poll) * 100) / 100]); matched++ |
| } |
| writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'peru-divergence-timeseries.csv'), csv(dv)) |
| console.log(`📊 divergence: ${matched} linhas (pesquisa 1T × mercado)`) |
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