---
license:
- cc-by-4.0
- apache-2.0
language:
- es
- en
- pt
pretty_name: "AFOS · Colombia 2026 Electoral Divergence"
tags:
- elections
- colombia
- prediction-markets
- polls
- political-risk
- divergence
- open-data
- latin-america
---

![AFOS · Colombia 2026 Electoral Divergence](banner.png)

# AFOS · Colombia 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset

🌐 **[English](#english) · [Español](#español) · [Português](#português)**

Open dataset cross-referencing **opinion polls × prediction markets** for Colombia's **2026 presidential election** (first round 31 May 2026; runoff 21 June 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella vs Iván Cepeda), built like the AFOS Brazil & Peru datasets: sources are reported side by side with **explicit divergence**, not blended into a single average.

Maintained by **[AFOS Analytics](https://afos-analytics.com)**. Part of AFOS's expansion of its electoral-divergence method across Latin America. *No personal data — only public electoral information.*

**License (dual):** **data** → CC BY 4.0 (`LICENSE-CC-BY-4.0`); **code/scripts** → Apache 2.0 (`LICENSE-APACHE-2.0`), matching the repo root and the Hugging Face mirror. Please attribute **AFOS Analytics** and the **original pollsters**.

---

## Press coverage layer

The qualitative third axis of the AFOS cross (**market x polls x press**) is now a structured file: `news/colombia-2026-press-coverage.csv`, 22 dated headlines from 15 outlets across the cycle (polls, first round, runoff, result, reactions), in ES/EN/PT. Headlines and links only (outlets retain copyright); dates are publication/coverage dates, best-effort. It complements the quantitative market-vs-poll divergence; it is not sentiment-scored.

---

## Coverage map (illustrative, NOT a divergence signal)

Descriptive breakdown of the 22 curated headlines in `news/colombia-2026-press-coverage.csv`. This reflects AFOS curation, not total press volume, so it is deliberately NOT fed into the market-vs-poll divergence and must not be read as a quantitative press signal. A true coverage-volume cross would require systematic daily collection.

- By phase: pre-first-round 1, first round 4, runoff campaign 4, result + reactions 13
- By topic: result 9, reactions 5, first round 3, analysis 2, poll 1, debate 1, runoff poll 1
- By language: ES 16, EN 5, PT 1
- Outlets (15): CNN en Espanol (5), El Espectador (2), El Tiempo (2), El Colombiano (2), plus one each from Infobae, France 24, La Silla Vacia, CNN, NPR, Al Jazeera, CNBC, CBS News, Portafolio, La FM, Brazil Journal.

---

## English

![Polymarket implied probability of winning over the campaign](odds-trajectory.png)

![Market probability of winning versus poll vote share on the eve of the vote](odds-snapshot.png)

| Path | Rows | Content |
|------|------|---------|
| `polls/colombia-first-round-polls.csv` | 170 | First-round voting intention, **long format** (one row per candidate × poll), **10 candidates**, 29 polls, 2025→May 2026. |
| `polls/colombia-polls.json` | — | Full structured polls with methodology. |
| `data/colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv` | 4,620 | Daily Polymarket win-probability per candidate (19 candidates, Jul 2025→Jun 2026) from the "Colombia Presidential Election" market. |
| `data/colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv` | 123 | **Market × poll divergence** per candidate — first-round polls + the 15 Jun runoff snapshot, joined to the candidate's market odds. |
| `polls/colombia-runoff-polls.csv` | 3 | **Runoff (2nd round) polls** from named pollsters — AtlasIntel, Guarumo/Ecoanalítica, CNC. |
| `data/colombia-results.csv` | 4 | **Official results** — first round + runoff, votes and % per candidate, with the elected winner flagged. |
| `data/colombia-poly-raw.json` | — | Raw Polymarket payload (provenance). |

> **Runoff RESULT (21 Jun 2026).** De la Espriella **won the presidency, 49.66% (12,959,542 votes) × Cepeda 48.70% (12,708,712)**, a **~0.96pp margin (~250k votes)** with nearly 100% counted (the official CNE escrutinio is the formality; inauguration 7 Aug). First round (31 May): de la Espriella 43.74% × Cepeda 40.90%.
>
> **The cross-reference — prediction market × opinion polls × press:** at the close the market priced his win as **near-certain (88.5% × 12.5%)**; runoff polls gave him a **~4-8pp lead** (AtlasIntel 50.9×43.1; Guarumo/Ecoanalítica 52.6×45.0; CNC 48.6×44.7); the press reported a likely de la Espriella win with a tightening race. **All three called the winner correctly, but market and polls overstated the margin:** the finish was a ~1pp near-tie, far below the poll lead and far from the market's near-certainty. International observers deemed the process transparent; the left (Petro, Cepeda) alleged irregularities.
>
> **The AFOS read:** right direction, overstated confidence — the market more so than the polls. As in the first round, the **spread was the signal**: an average would have hidden how a market priced at 88.5% certainty resolved into a coin-flip. Official results in `data/colombia-results.csv`.

### ⚖️ Notable divergences (why divergence beats the average)

The point of this dataset is the **gap** between what the market prices (probability of *winning*) and what polls measure (first-round *vote share*). Averaging the two would erase exactly the signal below. From the latest pre-election poll (Invamer, 20 May 2026):

- **Abelardo de la Espriella — poll 31.6% × market 43.5% (+11.9pp).** The market priced his *win probability* ~12 points above his first-round vote-share polling — and he **won the first round with 43.7%**. The market's signal matched the result; vote-share polls understated him.
- **Iván Cepeda — poll 44.6% × market 43.5% (−1.1pp).** Near-zero divergence: market and polls agreed he led on vote share, but priced him roughly even with Espriella to *win* — foreshadowing a tight runoff.
- **Paloma Valencia — poll 14% × market 14.5% (+0.5pp):** market and polls in lockstep.
- Earlier in the cycle the market ran *below* some candidates' vote share (e.g. **Daniel Quintero**, Nov 2025, poll 5.2% × market 0.6%, −4.6pp) — it never believed they could win.

**The reading:** a single blended "market + polls" average would have shown Cepeda comfortably ahead and hidden that the market gave the *eventual first-round winner* (Espriella) a far higher chance than his vote-share suggested. The divergence **was** the signal.

**Pollsters covered:** Invamer, AtlasIntel, CNC, Guarumo, GAD3, CELAG, and others.

**Provenance & method:** poll figures compiled deterministically from the public Wikipedia aggregation (*"2026 Colombian presidential election"*) and the [AS/COA poll tracker](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-colombias-2026-presidential-election), covering the first round (10 candidates) and the runoff (de la Espriella vs Cepeda, 21 June 2026); each figure traces to a named pollster. Market odds from the public Polymarket market. Nothing imputed or smoothed; missing values left blank. Underlying poll numbers are facts released by the named pollsters; the Wikipedia aggregation is CC BY-SA. Please attribute **AFOS Analytics** and the **original pollsters**.

---

## Español

Dataset abierto que cruza **encuestas × mercados de predicción** para la **elección presidencial de Colombia 2026** (primera vuelta 31 may; segunda vuelta 21 jun, de la Espriella vs Cepeda), con **divergencia explícita** en lugar de un promedio único.

**Resultado (balotaje, 21 jun):** de la Espriella **ganó la presidencia, 49,66% (12.959.542) × 48,70% (12.708.712)** de Cepeda, margen ~0,96pp (~250 mil votos), casi 100% escrutado (escrutinio oficial del CNE es la formalidad; toma de posesión 7 ago). Primera vuelta: 43,74% × 40,90%. **El cruce mercado × encuestas × prensa:** mercado (88,5%) y encuestas (~4-8pp) acertaron al ganador pero **sobreestimaron el margen** (desenlace de ~1pp). La prensa reportó la victoria; observadores internacionales lo consideraron transparente; la izquierda alegó irregularidades. **Lectura AFOS: dirección correcta, confianza sobreestimada.** Resultados oficiales en `data/colombia-results.csv`.

- `polls/colombia-first-round-polls.csv` — intención de voto en primera vuelta, formato largo, **10 candidatos**, 29 encuestas (2025→may 2026).
- `data/colombia-market-odds-timeseries.csv` / `colombia-divergence-timeseries.csv` — probabilidad de Polymarket por candidato y divergencia mercado × encuesta.

### ⚖️ Divergencias destacadas (por qué la divergencia supera al promedio)

Lo importante es la **brecha** entre lo que valora el mercado (probabilidad de *ganar*) y lo que miden las encuestas (*voto* de primera vuelta). De la última encuesta preelectoral (Invamer, 20 may 2026):

- **Abelardo de la Espriella — encuesta 31,6% × mercado 43,5% (+11,9pp).** El mercado valoró su probabilidad de *ganar* ~12 puntos por encima de su voto — y **ganó la primera vuelta con 43,7%**. La señal del mercado coincidió con el resultado; las encuestas lo subestimaron.
- **Iván Cepeda — encuesta 44,6% × mercado 43,5% (−1,1pp).** Divergencia casi nula: mercado y encuestas coincidían en que lideraba en voto, pero lo valoraban casi a la par con Espriella para *ganar* — anticipando un balotaje reñido.
- **Paloma Valencia — encuesta 14% × mercado 14,5% (+0,5pp):** mercado y encuestas al unísono.
- **Daniel Quintero — (nov 2025) encuesta 5,2% × mercado 0,6% (−4,6pp):** el mercado nunca creyó que pudiera ganar.

**La lectura:** un promedio "mercado + encuestas" habría mostrado a Cepeda cómodamente al frente y ocultado que el mercado le dio al *ganador efectivo de primera vuelta* (Espriella) una probabilidad mucho mayor que su voto. La divergencia **era** la señal.

**Encuestadoras:** Invamer, AtlasIntel, CNC, Guarumo, GAD3, CELAG. **Fuente:** Wikipedia + AS/COA. **Licencia:** CC BY 4.0 (atribuir a AFOS Analytics y a las encuestadoras). Investigación observacional; no es asesoría de inversión ni orientación de voto.

---

## Português

Dataset aberto cruzando **pesquisas × mercados de previsão** para a **eleição presidencial da Colômbia 2026** (1º turno 31/mai; 2º turno 21/jun, de la Espriella × Cepeda), com **divergência explícita** entre fontes. Pesquisas (10 candidatos, 29 do 1º turno) compiladas da Wikipedia + AS/COA; odds do Polymarket. Licença CC BY 4.0 (atribuir AFOS Analytics + institutos). Pesquisa observacional; não é recomendação de investimento nem orientação de voto.

**Resultado (2º turno, 21/jun):** de la Espriella **venceu a presidência, 49,66% (12.959.542) × 48,70% (12.708.712)** de Cepeda, margem ~0,96pp (~250 mil votos), quase 100% apurado (escrutínio oficial do CNE é a formalidade; posse 7/ago). 1º turno: 43,74% × 40,90%. **O cruzamento mercado × pesquisas × imprensa:** mercado (88,5%) e pesquisas (~4-8pp) acertaram o vencedor mas **superestimaram a folga** (desfecho de ~1pp). A imprensa noticiou a vitória; observadores internacionais consideraram o processo transparente; a esquerda alegou irregularidades. **Leitura AFOS: direção correta, confiança superestimada.** Resultados oficiais em `data/colombia-results.csv`.

### ⚖️ Divergências em destaque (por que a divergência supera a média)

O ponto é a **diferença** entre o que o mercado precifica (probabilidade de *vencer*) e o que as pesquisas medem (*voto* de 1º turno). Da última pesquisa pré-eleição (Invamer, 20/mai/2026):

- **Abelardo de la Espriella — pesquisa 31,6% × mercado 43,5% (+11,9pp).** O mercado precificou a chance de *vencer* dele ~12 pontos acima do voto — e ele **venceu o 1º turno com 43,7%**. O sinal do mercado bateu com o resultado; a pesquisa o subestimou.
- **Iván Cepeda — pesquisa 44,6% × mercado 43,5% (−1,1pp).** Divergência quase nula: mercado e pesquisa concordavam que ele liderava em voto, mas o precificavam quase empatado com Espriella para *vencer* — antecipando um 2º turno apertado.
- **Paloma Valencia — pesquisa 14% × mercado 14,5% (+0,5pp):** mercado e pesquisa em uníssono.
- **Daniel Quintero — (nov 2025) pesquisa 5,2% × mercado 0,6% (−4,6pp):** o mercado nunca acreditou que ele pudesse vencer.

**A leitura:** uma média "mercado + pesquisas" mostraria Cepeda confortavelmente à frente e esconderia que o mercado deu ao *vencedor efetivo do 1º turno* (Espriella) uma chance bem maior que o voto dele. A divergência **era** o sinal.

---

**Sources / Fuentes:** Pollsters (Invamer, AtlasIntel, CNC, Guarumo, GAD3, CELAG, …) · [Wikipedia — 2026 Colombian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Colombian_presidential_election) · [AS/COA poll tracker](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-colombias-2026-presidential-election) · Polymarket. Column definitions in [`DATA_DICTIONARY.md`](DATA_DICTIONARY.md).


## Structural context (World Bank)

Beyond the divergence data, this dataset ships `data/colombia-structural-context.csv`: official, open World Bank indicators that frame the country — **governance** (Worldwide Governance Indicators, 0-100 scale) plus **economy & education** (World Development Indicators: population, GDP, GDP per capita, inflation, public education spending, expected years of schooling). These are annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do **not** predict the electoral outcome. Columns are documented in `DATA_DICTIONARY.md`.