poll_date,pollster,candidate,poll_pct,polymarket_pct,polymarket_date,divergence_pp
2025-10-16,CNC,Iván Cepeda,8,16.5,2025-10-16,8.5
2025-10-16,CNC,Daniel Quintero,2.5,3.1,2025-10-16,0.6
2025-10-16,CNC,Abelardo de la Espriella,13.7,34.5,2025-10-16,20.8
2025-10-16,CNC,Sergio Fajardo,8.9,12.5,2025-10-16,3.6
2025-10-16,CNC,Vicky Dávila,6.4,13.5,2025-10-16,7.1
2025-10-16,CNC,Juan Manuel Galán,2.6,0.4,2025-10-16,-2.2
2025-11-14,CNC,Iván Cepeda,20.9,26.5,2025-11-14,5.6
2025-11-14,CNC,Daniel Quintero,1.8,0.7,2025-11-14,-1.1
2025-11-14,CNC,Abelardo de la Espriella,14.4,35.5,2025-11-14,21.1
2025-11-14,CNC,Sergio Fajardo,7.8,16.5,2025-11-14,8.7
2025-11-14,CNC,Vicky Dávila,3.2,4,2025-11-14,0.8
2025-11-14,CNC,Juan Manuel Galán,3.3,0.9,2025-11-14,-2.4
2025-11-14,CNC,Juan Carlos Pinzón,0.6,2.9,2025-11-14,2.3
2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Iván Cepeda,19.6,21.5,2025-11-15,1.9
2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Daniel Quintero,5.2,0.6,2025-11-15,-4.6
2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Abelardo de la Espriella,15.6,35.5,2025-11-15,19.9
2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Sergio Fajardo,10.6,15.5,2025-11-15,4.9
2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Vicky Dávila,4.2,2.5,2025-11-15,-1.7
2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Juan Manuel Galán,5.2,7,2025-11-15,1.8
2025-11-15,Yamil Cure S.A.S,Juan Carlos Pinzón,2.2,3.1,2025-11-15,0.9
2025-11-27,Invamer,Iván Cepeda,31.9,16.5,2025-11-27,-15.4
2025-11-27,Invamer,Abelardo de la Espriella,18.2,41.5,2025-11-27,23.3
2025-11-27,Invamer,Sergio Fajardo,8.5,12,2025-11-27,3.5
2025-11-27,Invamer,Vicky Dávila,3.7,5.1,2025-11-27,1.4
2025-11-27,Invamer,Juan Manuel Galán,1.6,1.1,2025-11-27,-0.5
2025-11-27,Invamer,Juan Carlos Pinzón,2.9,3.4,2025-11-27,0.5
2025-12-17,W.A.A,Iván Cepeda,30.7,32.5,2025-12-17,1.8
2025-12-17,W.A.A,Abelardo de la Espriella,16.2,39,2025-12-17,22.8
2025-12-17,W.A.A,Sergio Fajardo,6.7,12.5,2025-12-17,5.8
2025-12-17,W.A.A,Vicky Dávila,3.6,0.7,2025-12-17,-2.9
2025-12-17,W.A.A,Juan Manuel Galán,1.6,1.7,2025-12-17,0.1
2025-12-17,W.A.A,Juan Carlos Pinzón,0.7,0.4,2025-12-17,-0.3
2026-01-08,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Iván Cepeda,26.5,35.5,2026-01-08,9
2026-01-08,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Abelardo de la Espriella,28,34.5,2026-01-08,6.5
2026-01-08,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Paloma Valencia,5.1,9.8,2026-01-08,4.7
2026-01-08,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Sergio Fajardo,9.4,11.5,2026-01-08,2.1
2026-01-08,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Roy Barreras,0.2,4.6,2026-01-08,4.4
2026-01-15,Noticias RCN/Gad3,Iván Cepeda,30,37.5,2026-01-15,7.5
2026-01-15,Noticias RCN/Gad3,Abelardo de la Espriella,22,39.5,2026-01-15,17.5
2026-01-15,Noticias RCN/Gad3,Paloma Valencia,3,13.4,2026-01-15,10.4
2026-01-15,Noticias RCN/Gad3,Sergio Fajardo,1,5,2026-01-15,4
2026-01-15,Noticias RCN/Gad3,Roy Barreras,1,0.5,2026-01-15,-0.5
2026-01-21,CNC/Cambio,Iván Cepeda,28.2,39.5,2026-01-21,11.3
2026-01-21,CNC/Cambio,Abelardo de la Espriella,15.5,35.5,2026-01-21,20
2026-01-21,CNC/Cambio,Sergio Fajardo,9.8,4.2,2026-01-21,-5.6
2026-01-21,CNC/Cambio,Roy Barreras,0.3,1,2026-01-21,0.7
2026-01-22,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Iván Cepeda,33.6,38,2026-01-22,4.4
2026-01-22,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Abelardo de la Espriella,18.2,35,2026-01-22,16.8
2026-01-22,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Paloma Valencia,6.9,6.7,2026-01-22,-0.2
2026-01-22,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Sergio Fajardo,3.9,3.5,2026-01-22,-0.4
2026-01-22,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Roy Barreras,0,0.4,2026-01-22,0.4
2026-02-04,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Iván Cepeda,31.4,39.5,2026-02-04,8.1
2026-02-04,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Abelardo de la Espriella,32.1,36.5,2026-02-04,4.4
2026-02-04,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Paloma Valencia,3.8,8,2026-02-04,4.2
2026-02-04,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Sergio Fajardo,7.6,3.4,2026-02-04,-4.2
2026-02-04,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Roy Barreras,0.3,2.2,2026-02-04,1.9
2026-02-20,CELAG,Iván Cepeda,38.2,40,2026-02-20,1.8
2026-02-20,CELAG,Abelardo de la Espriella,25.2,39,2026-02-20,13.8
2026-02-20,CELAG,Paloma Valencia,4.6,7.5,2026-02-20,2.9
2026-02-20,CELAG,Sergio Fajardo,4.4,2.7,2026-02-20,-1.7
2026-02-20,CELAG,Roy Barreras,1,5.5,2026-02-20,4.5
2026-02-22,Invamer,Iván Cepeda,37.1,37.5,2026-02-22,0.4
2026-02-22,Invamer,Abelardo de la Espriella,18.9,38.5,2026-02-22,19.6
2026-02-22,Invamer,Paloma Valencia,10,7.9,2026-02-22,-2.1
2026-02-22,Invamer,Sergio Fajardo,6.6,1.4,2026-02-22,-5.2
2026-02-22,Invamer,Roy Barreras,1.8,3.5,2026-02-22,1.7
2026-03-12,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Iván Cepeda,36.4,45.5,2026-03-12,9.1
2026-03-12,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Abelardo de la Espriella,27.9,15.5,2026-03-12,-12.4
2026-03-12,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Paloma Valencia,17.5,31.4,2026-03-12,13.9
2026-03-12,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Sergio Fajardo,7.8,1.4,2026-03-12,-6.4
2026-03-12,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Roy Barreras,0.9,0.7,2026-03-12,-0.2
2026-03-18,Noticias RCN /Gad3,Iván Cepeda,35,41.5,2026-03-18,6.5
2026-03-18,Noticias RCN /Gad3,Abelardo de la Espriella,21,12.5,2026-03-18,-8.5
2026-03-18,Noticias RCN /Gad3,Paloma Valencia,16,43.8,2026-03-18,27.8
2026-03-18,Noticias RCN /Gad3,Sergio Fajardo,3,0.8,2026-03-18,-2.2
2026-03-18,Noticias RCN /Gad3,Roy Barreras,0.1,0.4,2026-03-18,0.3
2026-03-20,CELAG,Iván Cepeda,40.9,41,2026-03-20,0.1
2026-03-20,CELAG,Abelardo de la Espriella,15.4,16.5,2026-03-20,1.1
2026-03-20,CELAG,Paloma Valencia,21.1,38.9,2026-03-20,17.8
2026-03-20,CELAG,Sergio Fajardo,3.6,0.8,2026-03-20,-2.8
2026-03-20,CELAG,Roy Barreras,0.3,0.4,2026-03-20,0.1
2026-03-21,CNC,Iván Cepeda,34.5,42,2026-03-21,7.5
2026-03-21,CNC,Abelardo de la Espriella,15.4,17.5,2026-03-21,2.1
2026-03-21,CNC,Paloma Valencia,22.2,38.8,2026-03-21,16.6
2026-03-21,CNC,Sergio Fajardo,3.6,0.7,2026-03-21,-2.9
2026-03-21,CNC,Roy Barreras,0.5,0.4,2026-03-21,-0.1
2026-03-25,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Iván Cepeda,37.5,41.5,2026-03-25,4
2026-03-25,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Abelardo de la Espriella,20.2,14.5,2026-03-25,-5.7
2026-03-25,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Paloma Valencia,19.9,41.8,2026-03-25,21.9
2026-03-25,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Sergio Fajardo,3.9,0.7,2026-03-25,-3.2
2026-03-25,Guarumo/EcoAnalítica,Roy Barreras,0.6,0.3,2026-03-25,-0.3
2026-04-09,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,Iván Cepeda,40.82,39.5,2026-04-09,-1.32
2026-04-09,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,Abelardo de la Espriella,29.43,12.5,2026-04-09,-16.93
2026-04-09,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,Paloma Valencia,24.79,45.1,2026-04-09,20.31
2026-04-09,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,Sergio Fajardo,5.38,0.4,2026-04-09,-4.98
2026-04-09,Atlas Intel/SEMANA,Roy Barreras,0.32,0.2,2026-04-09,-0.12
2026-04-22,GAD3,Iván Cepeda,36,34.5,2026-04-22,-1.5
2026-04-22,GAD3,Abelardo de la Espriella,21,22,2026-04-22,1
2026-04-22,GAD3,Paloma Valencia,13,41.3,2026-04-22,28.3
2026-04-22,GAD3,Sergio Fajardo,2.5,0.4,2026-04-22,-2.1
2026-04-22,GAD3,Roy Barreras,0.1,0.2,2026-04-22,0.1
2026-04-24,Invamer,Iván Cepeda,44.3,36.5,2026-04-24,-7.8
2026-04-24,Invamer,Abelardo de la Espriella,21.5,25.5,2026-04-24,4
2026-04-24,Invamer,Paloma Valencia,19.8,33.8,2026-04-24,14
2026-04-24,Invamer,Sergio Fajardo,2,0.4,2026-04-24,-1.6
2026-04-24,Invamer,Roy Barreras,0.1,0.2,2026-04-24,0.1
2026-05-11,Fundación Génesis Crea,Iván Cepeda,35.1,38.5,2026-05-11,3.4
2026-05-11,Fundación Génesis Crea,Abelardo de la Espriella,21.6,43.5,2026-05-11,21.9
2026-05-11,Fundación Génesis Crea,Paloma Valencia,25.4,18.7,2026-05-11,-6.7
2026-05-11,Fundación Génesis Crea,Sergio Fajardo,2.9,0.2,2026-05-11,-2.7
2026-05-11,Fundación Génesis Crea,Roy Barreras,0.7,0.2,2026-05-11,-0.5
2026-05-14,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Iván Cepeda,36,38.5,2026-05-14,2.5
2026-05-14,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Abelardo de la Espriella,31.5,45.5,2026-05-14,14
2026-05-14,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Paloma Valencia,16,17.5,2026-05-14,1.5
2026-05-14,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Sergio Fajardo,4.7,0.2,2026-05-14,-4.5
2026-05-14,AtlasIntel/SEMANA,Roy Barreras,0.1,0.2,2026-05-14,0.1
2026-05-20,Invamer,Iván Cepeda,44.6,43.5,2026-05-20,-1.1
2026-05-20,Invamer,Abelardo de la Espriella,31.6,43.5,2026-05-20,11.9
2026-05-20,Invamer,Paloma Valencia,14,14.5,2026-05-20,0.5
2026-05-20,Invamer,Sergio Fajardo,2.2,0.2,2026-05-20,-2
2026-05-20,Invamer,Roy Barreras,0.3,0.1,2026-05-20,-0.2