poll_id,register_tse,institute,poll_date,field_midpoint,days_to_first_round,scenario,candidate,poll_pct,polymarket_pct,polymarket_date,naive_gap_pp,gap_type
BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,154,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,40,37.5,2026-04-30,-2.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,154,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34,43,2026-04-30,9,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,154,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,5,1.65,2026-04-30,-3.35,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,154,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,4,4.7,2026-04-30,0.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-03627/2026,BR036272026,Real Time Big Data,2026-05-05,2026-05-03,154,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,3,5.65,2026-04-30,2.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-07,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-07,2026-05-09,148,Cenário SP (1º turno),Flávio,39.3,43,2026-04-30,3.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-07,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-07,2026-05-09,148,Cenário SP (1º turno),Lula,36,37.5,2026-04-30,1.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-08,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,148,Cenário MT (1º turno),Flávio,44.6,43,2026-04-30,-1.6,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Paraná Pesquisas-2026-05-08,BR043152026,Paraná Pesquisas,2026-05-08,2026-05-09,148,Cenário MT (1º turno),Lula,29.8,37.5,2026-04-30,7.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,148,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,39,37.5,2026-04-30,-1.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,148,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,33,43,2026-04-30,10,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,148,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,4,1.65,2026-04-30,-2.35,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Quaest/Genial-2026-05-13,BR035982026,Quaest/Genial,2026-05-13,2026-05-09,148,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,4,4.7,2026-04-30,0.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-00290/2026,BR002902026,Datafolha,2026-05-15,2026-05-13,144,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,39,45.5,2026-05-13,6.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-00290/2026,BR002902026,Datafolha,2026-05-15,2026-05-13,144,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,35,28.45,2026-05-13,-6.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,142,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,47,42.5,2026-05-15,-4.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
AtlasIntel-2026-05-19,BR069392026,AtlasIntel,2026-05-19,2026-05-15,142,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34.3,33.35,2026-05-15,-0.95,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Vox Brasil-2026-05-20,BR024162026,Vox Brasil,2026-05-20,2026-05-18,139,Cenário Principal (2º turno),Lula,46.8,44.5,2026-05-17,-2.3,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Vox Brasil-2026-05-20,BR024162026,Vox Brasil,2026-05-20,2026-05-18,139,Cenário Principal (2º turno),Flávio,38.1,31.3,2026-05-17,-6.8,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Datafolha-2026-05-22,BR074892026,Datafolha,2026-05-22,2026-05-21,136,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,40,45.5,2026-05-21,5.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Datafolha-2026-05-22,BR074892026,Datafolha,2026-05-22,2026-05-21,136,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31,24.75,2026-05-21,-6.25,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Indexa Pesquisas-2026-05-27,BR021542026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-05-27,2026-05-23,134,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,39,45.5,2026-05-23,6.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Indexa Pesquisas-2026-05-27,BR021542026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-05-27,2026-05-23,134,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,30,27.75,2026-05-23,-2.25,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,132,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,38.5,39.5,2026-05-25,1,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,132,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31.5,27.65,2026-05-25,-3.85,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,132,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,5.5,1.65,2026-05-25,-3.85,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,132,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2.4,4.75,2026-05-25,2.35,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-02918/2026,BR029182026,Meio/Ideia,2026-05-28,2026-05-25,132,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,2.1,13.05,2026-05-25,10.95,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,128,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,38,40.5,2026-05-29,2.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,128,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31,28.65,2026-05-29,-2.35,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,128,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,6,1.35,2026-05-29,-4.65,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,128,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,6,15.6,2026-05-29,9.6,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-05864/2026,BR058642026,Real Time Big Data,2026-06-01,2026-05-29,128,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,4,2.75,2026-05-29,-1.25,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-08016/2026,BR080162026,Vox Brasil,2026-06-05,2026-06-02,124,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,42.1,39.5,2026-06-02,-2.6,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-08016/2026,BR080162026,Vox Brasil,2026-06-05,2026-06-02,124,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,33.6,33.4,2026-06-02,-0.2,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-08016/2026,BR080162026,Vox Brasil,2026-06-05,2026-06-02,124,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,6.9,2,2026-06-02,-4.9,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,120,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,39,40.5,2026-06-06,1.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,120,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,29,28.15,2026-06-06,-0.85,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,120,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,3,16.7,2026-06-06,13.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,120,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,3,1.95,2026-06-06,-1.05,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Quaest/Genial-2026-06-10,BR076612026,Quaest/Genial,2026-06-10,2026-06-06,120,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2,3.05,2026-06-06,1.05,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-06645/2026,BR066452026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-15,2026-06-13,113,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,42,49.5,2026-06-13,7.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-06645/2026,BR066452026,BTG/Nexus,2026-06-15,2026-06-13,113,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,33,26.55,2026-06-13,-6.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,114,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,41.8,47.5,2026-06-12,5.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,114,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,28.2,26.5,2026-06-12,-1.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,114,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,4,1.6,2026-06-12,-2.4,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,114,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2.8,1.2,2026-06-12,-1.6,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-04256/2026,BR042562026,CNT/MDA,2026-06-16,2026-06-12,114,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,2,13.7,2026-06-12,11.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-01461/2026,BR014612026,Futura/Apex,2026-06-16,2026-06-10,116,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,41.6,44.5,2026-06-10,2.9,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-01461/2026,BR014612026,Futura/Apex,2026-06-16,2026-06-10,116,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34.1,28.65,2026-06-10,-5.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,108,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,41,50.5,2026-06-18,9.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,108,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31,25.95,2026-06-18,-5.05,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,108,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,3,2.2,2026-06-18,-0.8,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,108,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,3,14.55,2026-06-18,11.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
BR-09956/2026,BR099562026,Datafolha,2026-06-20,2026-06-18,108,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Zema,2,1.45,2026-06-18,-0.55,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Indexa Pesquisas-2026-06-23,BR089442026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-06-23,2026-06-19,107,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,42,51.5,2026-06-19,9.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Indexa Pesquisas-2026-06-23,BR089442026,Indexa Pesquisas,2026-06-23,2026-06-19,107,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,31,25.75,2026-06-19,-5.25,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Gerp-2026-06-24,BR096572026,Gerp,2026-06-24,2026-06-17,109,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,37,50.5,2026-06-17,13.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
Gerp-2026-06-24,BR096572026,Gerp,2026-06-24,2026-06-17,109,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,34,24.05,2026-06-17,-9.95,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,BR057222026,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,2026-06-22,104,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Lula,40,55.5,2026-06-22,15.5,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,BR057222026,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,2026-06-22,104,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Flávio,36,23.75,2026-06-22,-12.25,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,BR057222026,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,2026-06-22,104,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Renan,4,13.7,2026-06-22,9.7,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare
PoderData/Aya-2026-06-25,BR057222026,PoderData/Aya,2026-06-25,2026-06-22,104,Cenário Principal (1º turno),Caiado,4,1.55,2026-06-22,-2.45,naive_winprob_minus_voteshare