poll_date,institute,register_tse,candidate,poll_pct,polymarket_pct,polymarket_date,divergence_pp
2026-05-05,Real Time Big Data,BR-03627/2026,Lula,40,37.5,2026-04-30,-2.5
2026-05-05,Real Time Big Data,BR-03627/2026,Flávio,34,43,2026-04-30,9
2026-05-05,Real Time Big Data,BR-03627/2026,Caiado,5,1.65,2026-04-30,-3.35
2026-05-05,Real Time Big Data,BR-03627/2026,Zema,4,4.7,2026-04-30,0.7
2026-05-05,Real Time Big Data,BR-03627/2026,Renan,3,5.65,2026-04-30,2.65
2026-05-07,Paraná Pesquisas,,Flávio,39.3,43,2026-04-30,3.7
2026-05-07,Paraná Pesquisas,,Lula,36,37.5,2026-04-30,1.5
2026-05-08,Paraná Pesquisas,,Flávio,44.6,43,2026-04-30,-1.6
2026-05-08,Paraná Pesquisas,,Lula,29.8,37.5,2026-04-30,7.7
2026-05-13,Quaest/Genial,,Lula,39,45.5,2026-05-13,6.5
2026-05-13,Quaest/Genial,,Flávio,33,28.45,2026-05-13,-4.55
2026-05-13,Quaest/Genial,,Caiado,4,1.25,2026-05-13,-2.75
2026-05-13,Quaest/Genial,,Zema,4,12,2026-05-13,8
2026-05-15,Datafolha,BR-00290/2026,Lula,39,42.5,2026-05-15,3.5
2026-05-15,Datafolha,BR-00290/2026,Flávio,35,33.35,2026-05-15,-1.65
2026-05-19,AtlasIntel,,Lula,47,44.5,2026-05-19,-2.5
2026-05-19,AtlasIntel,,Flávio,34.3,31.3,2026-05-19,-3
2026-05-20,Vox Brasil,,Lula,46.8,44.5,2026-05-19,-2.3
2026-05-20,Vox Brasil,,Flávio,38.1,31.3,2026-05-19,-6.8
2026-05-22,Datafolha,,Lula,40,45.5,2026-05-22,5.5
2026-05-22,Datafolha,,Flávio,31,28.05,2026-05-22,-2.95
2026-05-27,Indexa Pesquisas,,Lula,39,40.5,2026-05-27,1.5
2026-05-27,Indexa Pesquisas,,Flávio,30,28.75,2026-05-27,-1.25
2026-05-28,Meio/Ideia,BR-02918/2026,Lula,38.5,41.5,2026-05-28,3
2026-05-28,Meio/Ideia,BR-02918/2026,Flávio,31.5,28.65,2026-05-28,-2.85
2026-05-28,Meio/Ideia,BR-02918/2026,Caiado,5.5,1.45,2026-05-28,-4.05
2026-05-28,Meio/Ideia,BR-02918/2026,Zema,2.4,2.85,2026-05-28,0.45
2026-05-28,Meio/Ideia,BR-02918/2026,Renan,2.1,15.05,2026-05-28,12.95
2026-06-01,Real Time Big Data,BR-05864/2026,Lula,38,40.5,2026-06-01,2.5
2026-06-01,Real Time Big Data,BR-05864/2026,Flávio,31,29.2,2026-06-01,-1.8
2026-06-01,Real Time Big Data,BR-05864/2026,Caiado,6,2.6,2026-06-01,-3.4
2026-06-01,Real Time Big Data,BR-05864/2026,Renan,6,16.8,2026-06-01,10.8
2026-06-01,Real Time Big Data,BR-05864/2026,Zema,4,2.8,2026-06-01,-1.2
2026-06-05,Vox Brasil,BR-08016/2026,Lula,42.1,41.5,2026-06-05,-0.6
2026-06-05,Vox Brasil,BR-08016/2026,Flávio,33.6,28.2,2026-06-05,-5.4
2026-06-05,Vox Brasil,BR-08016/2026,Caiado,6.9,2.35,2026-06-05,-4.55
2026-06-10,Quaest/Genial,,Lula,39,44.5,2026-06-10,5.5
2026-06-10,Quaest/Genial,,Flávio,29,28.65,2026-06-10,-0.35
2026-06-10,Quaest/Genial,,Renan,3,16.65,2026-06-10,13.65
2026-06-10,Quaest/Genial,,Caiado,3,1.75,2026-06-10,-1.25
2026-06-10,Quaest/Genial,,Zema,2,1.85,2026-06-10,-0.15
2026-06-15,BTG/Nexus,BR-06645/2026,Lula,42,51.5,2026-06-15,9.5
2026-06-15,BTG/Nexus,BR-06645/2026,Flávio,33,25.55,2026-06-15,-7.45
2026-06-16,CNT/MDA,BR-04256/2026,Lula,41.8,51.5,2026-06-16,9.7
2026-06-16,CNT/MDA,BR-04256/2026,Flávio,28.2,25.35,2026-06-16,-2.85
2026-06-16,CNT/MDA,BR-04256/2026,Caiado,4,1.95,2026-06-16,-2.05
2026-06-16,CNT/MDA,BR-04256/2026,Zema,2.8,1.35,2026-06-16,-1.45
2026-06-16,CNT/MDA,BR-04256/2026,Renan,2,14.05,2026-06-16,12.05
2026-06-16,Futura/Apex,BR-01461/2026,Lula,41.6,51.5,2026-06-16,9.9
2026-06-16,Futura/Apex,BR-01461/2026,Flávio,34.1,25.35,2026-06-16,-8.75
2026-06-20,Datafolha,BR-09956/2026,Lula,41,51.5,2026-06-20,10.5
2026-06-20,Datafolha,BR-09956/2026,Flávio,31,25.05,2026-06-20,-5.95
2026-06-20,Datafolha,BR-09956/2026,Caiado,3,2.25,2026-06-20,-0.75
2026-06-20,Datafolha,BR-09956/2026,Renan,3,14.35,2026-06-20,11.35
2026-06-20,Datafolha,BR-09956/2026,Zema,2,1.45,2026-06-20,-0.55
2026-06-23,Indexa Pesquisas,,Lula,42,53.5,2026-06-23,11.5
2026-06-23,Indexa Pesquisas,,Flávio,31,25.55,2026-06-23,-5.45
2026-06-24,Gerp,,Lula,37,57.5,2026-06-24,20.5
2026-06-24,Gerp,,Flávio,34,22.9,2026-06-24,-11.1
2026-06-25,PoderData/Aya,,Lula,40,56.5,2026-06-25,16.5
2026-06-25,PoderData/Aya,,Flávio,36,23.45,2026-06-25,-12.55
2026-06-25,PoderData/Aya,,Renan,4,11.45,2026-06-25,7.45
2026-06-25,PoderData/Aya,,Caiado,4,1.65,2026-06-25,-2.35