date,candidate,polymarket_pct,poll_pct,divergence_pp 2026-06-13,Lula,49.5,39,10.5 2026-06-13,Flávio Bolsonaro,26.55,29,-2.45 2026-06-13,Renan Santos,13.1,3,10.1 2026-06-13,Ronaldo Caiado,1.35,3,-1.65 2026-06-13,Tarcísio,0.15,0,0.15 2026-06-13,Romeu Zema,1.65,2,-0.35 2026-06-13,Fernando Haddad,2,0,2