File size: 8,880 Bytes
df8f96e
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
{
  "title": "Xperience-10M Foundation Model Plan",
  "status": "planning_artifact",
  "current_boundary": "No held-out multi-episode foundation-model result has been completed in this repo. The current foundation-model artifacts are setup-stage until enough valid episodes are staged and evaluated.",
  "decision": {
    "immediate_trainable_backbone": "Qwen3-Omni",
    "first_world_model_branch": "Cosmos 3",
    "first_policy_branch_candidates": [
      "OpenVLA / OpenVLA-OFT",
      "openpi pi0/pi0.5",
      "NVIDIA GR00T"
    ],
    "external_reasoning_reference": "Gemini Robotics"
  },
  "model_families": [
    {
      "priority": 1,
      "family": "Qwen3-Omni",
      "category": "omni_instruction_model",
      "openness": "open_weights_available_from_official_hf_repo",
      "best_role": "First selected-episode multimodal LoRA pilot and structured task predictor.",
      "xperience10m_fit": [
        "RGB/fisheye video, embedded audio, and language prompts can enter directly.",
        "Depth, pose/SLAM, mocap, contacts, and IMU enter through the existing sensor bridge.",
        "Matches current task outputs: labels, structured JSON, captions, and short decisions."
      ],
      "current_decision": "keep_as_first_pilot",
      "entry_condition": "Selected episodes staged with held-out episode split.",
      "public_source": "https://huggingface.co/Qwen/Qwen3-Omni-30B-A3B-Instruct"
    },
    {
      "priority": 2,
      "family": "Cosmos 3",
      "category": "world_foundation_model",
      "openness": "track_official_nvidia_release_and_available_weights",
      "best_role": "Embodied world modeling, action generation, future-window prediction, and synthetic-data expansion.",
      "xperience10m_fit": [
        "Uses video streams as visual state.",
        "Uses pose/SLAM, depth, mocap, IMU, and language as physical-world conditioning signals.",
        "Better aligned with prediction/generation objectives than simple label classification."
      ],
      "current_decision": "add_as_first_world_model_branch_after_data_gate",
      "entry_condition": "Multi-episode data plus enough storage/compute for generated or latent video-state outputs.",
      "public_source": "https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/ai/cosmos/"
    },
    {
      "priority": 3,
      "family": "NVIDIA GR00T",
      "category": "humanoid_policy_foundation_model",
      "openness": "track_official_nvidia_release_and_tooling",
      "best_role": "Humanoid action understanding, retargeting, contact/action prediction, and embodied skill transfer.",
      "xperience10m_fit": [
        "Hand/body mocap and contact cues can be retargeted into humanoid state/action targets.",
        "Egocentric video plus human motion can support affordance and interaction tasks."
      ],
      "current_decision": "track_as_humanoid_policy_branch",
      "entry_condition": "Retargeting artifact and action-space definition exist.",
      "public_source": "https://developer.nvidia.com/isaac/gr00t"
    },
    {
      "priority": 4,
      "family": "OpenVLA / OpenVLA-OFT",
      "category": "vision_language_action_policy",
      "openness": "open_project_and_weights",
      "best_role": "Open robot-policy baseline after observations and action labels are converted into a VLA format.",
      "xperience10m_fit": [
        "Good candidate when each window is expressed as visual observation, instruction/context, and action token.",
        "Requires an explicit action target; current human egocentric labels are not robot controls by default."
      ],
      "current_decision": "candidate_after_action_space_design",
      "entry_condition": "Window-to-action-token conversion is implemented and audited.",
      "public_source": "https://openvla.github.io/"
    },
    {
      "priority": 5,
      "family": "openpi pi0/pi0.5",
      "category": "robot_policy_model",
      "openness": "open_source_policy_training_stack",
      "best_role": "Action-chunking, policy fine-tuning, and embodiment-transfer experiments.",
      "xperience10m_fit": [
        "Useful once hand trajectories, contacts, or retargeted body motion are converted into policy targets.",
        "Better for policy branch than for current structured task JSON outputs."
      ],
      "current_decision": "candidate_policy_branch",
      "entry_condition": "Action target and train/eval protocol exist for at least 64 episodes.",
      "public_source": "https://github.com/Physical-Intelligence/openpi"
    },
    {
      "priority": 6,
      "family": "Gemini Robotics",
      "category": "closed_embodied_reasoning_reference",
      "openness": "closed_or_limited_access",
      "best_role": "Qualitative reasoning reference, annotation helper, and external comparison when API access exists.",
      "xperience10m_fit": [
        "Can help reason over egocentric scenes and task descriptions.",
        "Not a local fine-tune target for this repo."
      ],
      "current_decision": "external_reference_only",
      "entry_condition": "API/access exists and outputs are logged separately from trainable model metrics.",
      "public_source": "https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gemini-robotics-brings-ai-into-the-physical-world/"
    },
    {
      "priority": 7,
      "family": "Octo / SmolVLA-style lightweight policies",
      "category": "lightweight_robot_policy_baselines",
      "openness": "open_projects",
      "best_role": "Cheaper policy baselines for observation-to-action experiments.",
      "xperience10m_fit": [
        "Useful after action target design.",
        "Less directly omni-modal than Qwen3-Omni or Cosmos 3."
      ],
      "current_decision": "optional_baseline_after_data_staging",
      "entry_condition": "Action labels and baseline protocol exist.",
      "public_source": "https://github.com/huggingface/lerobot"
    }
  ],
  "execution_order": [
    {
      "step": 1,
      "name": "Data gate",
      "action": "Stage at least 32 valid Xperience-10M episodes with held-out episode split."
    },
    {
      "step": 2,
      "name": "First held-out baseline",
      "action": "Run Qwen3-Omni LoRA to establish the full train/eval loop."
    },
    {
      "step": 3,
      "name": "Model-selection dry run",
      "action": "Run 3-8 episode dry runs for Qwen3-Omni prompt/LoRA, Cosmos 3 preprocessing, and one policy candidate."
    },
    {
      "step": 4,
      "name": "World-model branch",
      "action": "Promote Cosmos 3 if future-window/action-conditioned preprocessing fits storage and compute."
    },
    {
      "step": 5,
      "name": "Policy branch",
      "action": "Promote OpenVLA/openpi/GR00T after action target conversion and retargeting artifacts are traceable."
    },
    {
      "step": 6,
      "name": "Publication rule",
      "action": "Publish branch results only with real manifests, predictions, metrics, and qualitative examples."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation_additions": [
    {
      "target": "structured_task_prediction",
      "metrics": [
        "JSON validity",
        "macro-F1",
        "accuracy",
        "micro-F1"
      ],
      "model_families": [
        "Qwen3-Omni",
        "Gemini Robotics reference"
      ]
    },
    {
      "target": "future_state_prediction",
      "metrics": [
        "retrieval rank",
        "temporal consistency",
        "feature reconstruction",
        "qualitative visual inspection"
      ],
      "model_families": [
        "Cosmos 3"
      ]
    },
    {
      "target": "action_conditioned_dynamics",
      "metrics": [
        "transition accuracy",
        "contact accuracy",
        "next-action accuracy"
      ],
      "model_families": [
        "Cosmos 3",
        "OpenVLA",
        "openpi",
        "GR00T"
      ]
    },
    {
      "target": "cross_episode_generalization",
      "metrics": [
        "held-out episode metrics",
        "held-out session metrics",
        "leakage audit"
      ],
      "model_families": [
        "all trainable branches"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "label": "Qwen3-Omni official HF model",
      "url": "https://huggingface.co/Qwen/Qwen3-Omni-30B-A3B-Instruct"
    },
    {
      "label": "NVIDIA Cosmos",
      "url": "https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/ai/cosmos/"
    },
    {
      "label": "NVIDIA Isaac GR00T",
      "url": "https://developer.nvidia.com/isaac/gr00t"
    },
    {
      "label": "OpenVLA",
      "url": "https://openvla.github.io/"
    },
    {
      "label": "openpi",
      "url": "https://github.com/Physical-Intelligence/openpi"
    },
    {
      "label": "Gemini Robotics",
      "url": "https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gemini-robotics-brings-ai-into-the-physical-world/"
    },
    {
      "label": "Octo",
      "url": "https://octo-models.github.io/"
    },
    {
      "label": "LeRobot / SmolVLA",
      "url": "https://github.com/huggingface/lerobot"
    }
  ]
}